Daily Candle Signals Bearish Pressure For Bitcoin

Cryptowzrd expanded on his outlook by pointing out that Bitcoin’s daily candle closed bearish, with price now trading beneath the $110,500 support zone. This breakdown is significant and could invite further selling pressure in the sessions ahead if buyers fail to reclaim the level.

He emphasized that holding below this support opens the door for a potential move toward the $100,000 mark. However, a strong bullish candle and a swift recovery could invalidate the bearish setup, restoring confidence for buyers.

In the analysis, he also highlighted the performance of Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), which closed indecisively while displaying weakness. This weakness in dominance is often viewed as a positive signal for altcoins, as it suggests capital is flowing away from Bitcoin and into alternative assets.

Such a shift in market dominance reflects growing market confidence in altcoins. When Bitcoin dominance stalls or declines, it tends to fuel altcoin rallies, allowing traders to diversify into promising setups across the market.

Finally, he noted that markets are heading into the monthly transition period, a time often associated with increased volatility and mixed sentiment. Going into the weekend, he emphasized the importance of staying rational and avoiding overextending in either direction, maintaining measured strategies while waiting for clearer confirmation signals.

BTC Volatility Dominates Intraday Trading

Cryptowzrd highlighted that today’s intraday chart displayed sharp volatility with a clear bearish tone, as Bitcoin slipped and is currently holding below the $110,400 intraday support. This level has now become critical, as losing it signals weakening buyer strength and raises the risk of further downside pressure. 

He explained that if Bitcoin retests $110,400 and fails to reclaim it, the level could flip into resistance. Such a scenario would likely trigger a short setup, with price action targeting the $105,500 support area or even extending lower if bearish momentum accelerates. This makes the $110,400 region a decisive battleground for traders closely watching intraday setups.

On the other hand, Cryptowzrd pointed out that a strong reclaim and hold above $110,400 could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls, opening the door for further upside pressure. However, the crypto analyst emphasized that the market currently lacks clarity, and traders should exercise caution before rushing in.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) stalling between its recent all-time high and range lows is a sign of investors digesting the movement rather than market weakness.

According to the August 18 Bitfinex Alpha report, BTC surged to a record $123,640 before retreating 5.44% from peak to trough, returning to the lower end of its established trading range.

The pullback followed higher-than-expected US consumer and producer price inflation readings, which tempered risk appetite across asset classes. 

Bitcoin has since entered a consolidation phase, with investors adopting a wait-and-watch approach ahead of potential policy signals. For now, BTC continues to oscillate between its all-time high and local range lows, reflecting a digestion period rather than structural weakness.

The report noted that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle later this year could provide a supportive backdrop for both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH). 

Until then, traders should expect range-bound conditions to dominate, with volatility shaped by incoming macroeconomic data.

Altcoins under pressure

In the current environment, altcoins remain more vulnerable than majors. Liquidity is concentrating in Bitcoin and Ethereum, while capital rotation away from higher-beta assets leaves smaller tokens exposed to sharper retracements. 

This pattern is typical in the early stages of bull markets, where institutional inflows first consolidate in BTC and ETH before expanding into the broader market. 

A decisive break above all-time highs in these majors would be the key catalyst for renewed inflows and broader strength.

Ethereum has played a critical role in setting the tone for digital assets. From April lows of $1,386.80, ETH climbed to $4,783.90 on August 14, less than 2% below its all-time high of $4,864.90. The advance reinforced Ethereum’s status as the primary liquidity driver outside Bitcoin, with its performance fuelling renewed speculation in altcoins.

The rotation is visible in Bitcoin Dominance, which has declined from 65% to 59% over the past two months. Historically, such declines in dominance have often coincided with periods of accelerating speculation across alternative assets. 

While majors consolidate, capital continues shifting down the risk curve, a dynamic that may persist until a clear macroeconomic catalyst emerges.

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On-Chain Data Shows ETH Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Vulnerable

In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, CryptoOnChain shares insights on Ethereum’s future price movement based on recent exchange activity. The digital asset analyst notes that after rallying from the $2,400 zone, ETH has climbed to around $4,215, just shy of the strong $4,400 resistance level that has historically acted as a significant supply barrier. While momentum indicators such as the MACD and buying volume remain positive, the approach toward this resistance is accompanied by potential for near-term selling pressure.

Meanwhile, CryptoOnChain also reveals that on-chain exchange metrics reveal a divergence between broader market behavior and activity specific to Binance. Notably, Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across all exchanges has recorded a steady decline since 2022, now standing at approximately 0.16. This development suggests that investors are steadily moving ETH off trading platforms, thereby reducing sell-side liquidity and strengthening the market confidence in the asset’s long-term price outlook.

However, Binance’s ESR has been climbing since early 2025, now hovering near 0.04. This localized increase indicates that some ETH holders are moving coins back into Binance, potentially for short-term profit taking, arbitrage opportunities, or to participate in exchange-specific programs. Adding to the cautious tone, Binance’s exchange netflow has recently seen a notable surge in positive inflows, as Ethereum nears key resistance at $4,400, signifying potential intent to sell.

The combination of these metrics paints a picture of long-term strength but short-term vulnerability for the Ethereum market. From a macro standpoint, the ongoing decline in the all-exchange ESR points to a healthier supply-demand balance for ETH. However, the localized buildup of ETH on Binance, which is the world’s largest exchange, coupled with heightened net inflows, suggests that sellers may be preparing to take profits in the immediate term.

Ethereum Price Forecast

At press time, Ethereum trades at $4,230, reflecting a 4.62% gain in the last day. However, the asset’s daily trading volume has declined by 12.08%.  Considering the current ESR report, CryptoOnChain outlines two scenarios.

In a bullish scenario, a swift drop in Binance net inflows or a leveling off in the exchange’s ESR could open the door for ETH to push decisively past the $4,400 mark, with $4,800 as the next price target amidst the possibility of revisiting all-time highs. Conversely, if strong inflows into Binance persist and the price fails to clear $4,400, ETH could face a short-term pullback, potentially retracing to the $3,950–$4,000 support zone before mounting another breakout attempt.

This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

XRP: Not out of the woods yet

XRP

, the payments-focused cryptocurrency, surged 11% on Thursday, reportedly breaking out of a bull flag pattern to suggest renewed upward momentum. However, it’s not yet clear, as prices remain well below the crucial $3.65 level, where a bearish “tweezer top” candlestick pattern occurred last month.

The tweezer top is a bearish reversal pattern, comprising two candles with identical highs that represent a clear rejection point, in this case $3.65. It’s as if the market tried to climb to a new level twice and was met with a brick wall of selling pressure at the same spot, a sign that the upward momentum has completely stalled.

The bulls, therefore, need to overcome the significant supply point at $3.65, a move that would invalidate the bearish reversal pattern.

However, this may be easier said than done, as on-chain data suggests that holders are sitting on substantial profits and have a strong incentive to sell at current valuations.

“The [XRP] Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) remains at elevated levels not seen since the 2021 peak, reaching similar levels to those observed in 2018. These high values indicate that the market still carries significant unrealized profits, which historically represents zones of potential distribution and price correction,” research firm Alphractal said on x.

• Resistance: $3.38, $3.65, $4.00.
• Support: $2.99, $2.72, $2.65.

Bitcoin: BTC awaits breakout

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback is currently taking the shape of a descending channel (white lines) within its primary uptrend (yellow lines). This pattern is a classic “bull breather” that suggests the market is consolidating its recent gains.

The price’s recent bounce from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) further reinforces the strength of this consolidation. For traders, this means that while the short-term trend is still corrective, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

A decisive breakout from the descending channel would confirm a continuation of the broader uptrend, potentially yielding a move to record highs above $123,000. Conversely, a move below the May high of $111,965 would increase the risk of a deeper sell-off to $100,000.

• Resistance: $120,000, $122,056, $123,181.
• Support: $111,965, $104,562, $100,000.

Ether: Major breakout

Ether has rallied to over $4,200, reaching levels last seen four years ago. The cryptocurrency has broken out of a prolonged symmetrical triangle that contained its price since the all-time high in late 2021, which is a major bullish signal.

The decisive breakout, particularly on a chart with this long a time horizon, indicates that the market has officially entered a new, powerful uptrend, opening the door for a retest of record highs above $4,800.

• Resistance: $4,400, $4,875, $5,000.
• Support: $4,000, $3,941, $3,737.

Bitcoin has broken down from the two-week consolidation range that held the market between $115,724 and $122,077, reaching a new local low near $114,000. The drop confirms a shift in short-term momentum, putting bulls on the defensive. The $117,000 level—previously a key support zone—now serves as the immediate resistance that must be reclaimed to signal a possible reversal.

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The breakdown comes at a critical time, as sentiment across the market begins to shift. According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, futures sentiment turned bearish today, falling sharply before bouncing back slightly to 48%. While still close to neutral, any reading below 50% signals bearish dominance in positioning. This adds pressure to an already fragile technical structure and suggests traders are bracing for more downside.

Unless bulls can recover $117K quickly and close with strength, Bitcoin risks entering a deeper correction phase. With long-term support levels still intact, the broader bull trend remains in place—but this breakdown marks the first significant loss of momentum in weeks. The coming sessions will be critical in determining whether this is just a shakeout or the start of a larger trend reversal.

Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index Signals Rising Bearish Pressure

Top analyst Axel Adler has shared new insights into the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index, a key metric used to gauge futures market positioning and broader investor mood. According to Adler, the index recently dropped to 40%—a sharp decline that reflected growing risk aversion and bearish positioning. Although the metric has since rebounded to 48%, it remains below the critical 50% threshold, which separates bullish from bearish territory.

This rebound signals a temporary pause in negative sentiment, but the broader trend shows a shift from bullish caution to bearish fear. Adler notes that as long as the index remains below 50%, the market lacks the confidence needed to sustain upward momentum. Traders are growing increasingly defensive, reducing long exposure and bracing for further downside.

If momentum continues to deteriorate, BTC could test the $112,000 level—the previous all-time high set in May. This zone may act as psychological and technical support, but failure to hold it could trigger a deeper correction.

With the Advanced Sentiment Index stuck in bearish territory and price action weakening, the market appears to be entering a riskier phase. While this doesn’t yet signal a full trend reversal, it does reflect growing uncertainty. Until sentiment and price reclaim higher ground, caution is warranted. The next move will likely depend on whether bulls can defend $112K—or if bears gain full control of the trend.

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BTC Loses Key Support After Breakdown

Bitcoin has officially broken down from its two-week consolidation range, losing the critical $115,724 support level highlighted in the chart. The price reached a new local low at $114,116 before recovering slightly to the $115,100 zone, where it’s currently attempting to find footing. This marks a significant shift in momentum, as bulls failed to defend the lower boundary of the range, which held firm throughout July.

The 12-hour chart shows rising volume accompanying this breakdown, adding weight to the bearish move. BTC now trades below the 50-day SMA ($116,981), confirming weakness in short-term structure. The next major support sits around $112,000—the prior all-time high set in May—which could act as a psychological and technical floor.

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The 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain well below current price action, suggesting that the macro trend is still intact. However, immediate momentum has clearly shifted, and bulls must reclaim the $117,000 area quickly to invalidate this breakdown.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Ethereum has managed to diverge from the broader crypto market trend, posting gains while the overall market experienced a drop in capitalization.

Over the past 24 hours, the global crypto market fell by 5.3%, yet Ethereum registered a 2.4% increase, currently trading around $3,719. This move has drawn renewed interest from analysts, particularly as on-chain data suggests shifting trader sentiment and positioning.

Short Squeezes and Whale Activity Shape Ethereum’s Recent Rally

Amr Taha, a contributor on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlighted the significance of Ethereum’s recent price action. Taha noted that a sudden breakout above $3,700 resulted in over $160 million in short positions being liquidated on Binance.

This event followed an earlier wave of $195 million in short liquidations near the $3,500 mark, pointing to a pattern of cascading short squeezes. As short-sellers rushed to cover their positions, this led to additional upward price momentum, at least temporarily.

Taha also observed a notable divergence in whale activity across assets. According to data from the Whales Screener, there was a net inflow of over $300 million worth of Bitcoin to centralized exchanges. At the same time, over $300 million in stablecoins was withdrawn from exchanges.

This combination may reflect a cautious outlook, as whales potentially prepare to sell Bitcoin while simultaneously reducing available liquidity for immediate buy-side activity.

Taha cautioned that such short squeezes can result in brief periods of elevated prices, often followed by consolidation or correction.

He identified several signs suggesting potential short-term headwinds: a drop in open interest following the liquidation cascade, whale deposits of BTC possibly in preparation for selling, and reduced exchange balances of stablecoins indicating limited new capital entering the market. “These conditions combined could contribute to a pullback if fresh inflows don’t materialize,” Taha wrote.

ETH’s Outlook as Market Enters Second Half of 2025

In a separate analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan provided a broader perspective on Ethereum’s trajectory. While acknowledging that the recent price surge may introduce short-term correction risk, Dan argued that market indicators suggest this would likely be limited in scope.

Comparing current conditions to historical futures market overheating in March and November 2024, Dan pointed out that current leverage and sentiment levels remain relatively muted.

He also noted that Ethereum’s performance has been restrained throughout this upcycle, even reaching undervalued levels at times. This could indicate that the asset still has room to rise, especially in the second half of 2025.

If Ethereum continues to climb, Dan suggested it could also serve as a catalyst for altcoin activity, given their tendency to follow ETH movements in bull phases.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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Although Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded slight gains over the past month – up 3.6% in the last 30 days – the leading cryptocurrency is experiencing a lack of Apparent Demand, indicating broader market weakness that could lead to a price slump in the near term.

Bitcoin Apparent Demand Enters Negative Territory

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin’s new buyer demand is failing to absorb the combined supply pressure from freshly mined BTC and selling from long-term holders (LTHs). As a result, BTC’s Apparent Demand has turned negative.

The analyst noted that the imbalance between buyer demand and excessive supply has created a high-risk environment for a near-term price correction. Notably, the $100,000 level remains an important support for the flagship digital asset.

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For the uninitiated, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand measures the balance between new buying interest and the supply of coins entering the market from miners and LTHs selling. When this metric turns negative, it means that the amount of BTC being sold exceeds new purchases, indicating potential market weakness and downward price pressure.

BTC entering negative Apparent Demand territory can be considered a bearish development for two key reasons. First, it directly increases the “for sale” BTC supply, exerting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price.

Second, significant selling by LTHs – often considered seasoned and sophisticated investors – suggests that experienced players believe the crypto market has likely reached a local top and are exiting before a potential severe market downturn. The analyst added:

Consequently, the market is in a vulnerable state. Any price rallies from here will likely struggle to overcome this wave of available supply, and market support may be weaker than anticipated. While not a guarantee, this on-chain signal strongly suggests a period of caution is warranted until demand shows clear signs of recovery.

That said, recent on-chain analysis indicates a more optimistic outlook. According to fellow CryptoQuant analyst Avocado_onchain, the 30-day moving average (MA) of Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) shows signs of healthy consolidation rather than a potential local top.

Some Positive Signs For BTC

While BTC’s Apparent Demand might be drying up, easing global geopolitical tensions could catalyze a rally in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Further positive macroeconomic developments may also benefit BTC, potentially leading to a cycle top much higher than currently anticipated.

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Another indicator negating the possibility of a major price pullback is the steadily rising short-term holder (STH) floor price, which has surged to as high as $98,000 according to the latest on-chain data. At press time, BTC trades at $107,500, down 0.5% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned on April 4 that President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariffs are likely to elevate inflation and slow economic growth.

However, he also signaled that the central bank would hold off on any interest rate moves until the effects are clearer.

According to Powell:

“It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.”

Speaking at a business journalism event in Arlington, Powell said the Fed is facing a “highly uncertain outlook” following the administration’s decision to impose sweeping 10% tariffs and steeper retaliatory duties on several major trading partners.

Powell added the Fed is prepared to be patient as it assesses the fallout. He said:

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.”

The comments come just weeks after the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing increased economic uncertainty.

Powell’s remarks suggest the Fed is in no rush to alter its policy stance, even as financial markets increasingly anticipate rate cuts beginning this summer.

According to CME Group data, market futures indicate a growing expectation that the Fed will lower rates by at least one percentage point before the end of the year. However, Powell emphasized that such expectations may be premature, particularly if inflation risks begin to rise again.

While acknowledging the US economy remains “in a good place,” with low unemployment and steady demand, Powell flagged consumer concerns over inflation and noted that core inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, running at an annualized 2.8% as of February.

Trump has publicly urged the Fed to cut rates, accusing Powell of failing to respond to declining inflation. But Powell dismissed political pressure and reiterated the Fed’s independence and dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment.

“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.”

Several countries have already announced retaliatory tariffs in response to the White House’s move, further complicating the outlook for global trade and US inflation.

Powell said the full scope of the economic impact remains uncertain, particularly in how long it will take for new pricing pressures to ripple through supply chains.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) showed little reaction to Powell’s remarks and continues to trade above $83,000, maintaining its recent strength amid broader market volatility in risk assets.

The Fed’s next policy decision is due in early May, but Powell gave no indication that a shift is imminent.

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Macroeconomic uncertainty is keeping Bitcoin (BTC) in a tight price range as liquidity continues to contract due to declining speculative interest and trading volumes, according to the latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report.

The firm said that large investors’ interest needs to return to push Bitcoin out of its current range. It highlighted that Bitcoin briefly gained momentum after opening last week near $82,791, driven by speculation surrounding former President Donald Trump’s speech at the Digital Asset Summit.

However, despite the positive comments, the rally was short-lived, and the event became a “sell-the-news” moment for the market. It temporarily pushed BTC to as low as $81,366 before recovering to close the week up 4.2% following an optimistic FOMC meeting.

Outlook remains gloomy

Despite the modest weekly gain, underlying market indicators suggest waning momentum. The report noted that volatility and liquidity have declined, reinforcing the trend of Bitcoin responding more directly to macroeconomic developments. 

Investors remain divided over the direction of monetary policy, with no consensus on whether the Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish or hawkish stance. This lack of clarity has reduced speculative conviction and heightened Bitcoin’s sensitivity to external policy cues.

One metric reflecting the current market structure is Bitcoin’s “Hot Supply,” a measure of liquid capital defined by weekly-moving coins. After peaking in December 2024, Hot Supply has contracted from 5.9% to just 2.8% of the total circulating supply. 

This more than 50% reduction highlights a broad decline in short-term trading activity and market participation, suggesting a retreat of speculative capital and increasing investor caution. Investors are transacting fewer coins, and active trading behavior has declined.

Historically, such reductions in liquid supply tend to precede long-term market bottoms, though the report refrains from offering forward-looking statements beyond the current environment.

In tandem, Bitcoin exchange inflows—a proxy for near-term trading intent—have dropped from 58,600 BTC per day in December to 26,900 BTC, based on a 14-day rolling average.

This marks a 54% decline in coins sent to exchanges, reinforcing the broader trend of subdued market activity. Outside a brief break in range-bound trading toward the end of February, which saw BTC fall below the $91,000–$102,000 corridor, exchange-related flows have steadily declined.

Liquidity conditions

The alignment between falling Hot Supply and reduced exchange inflows indicates weakened demand-side pressure.

As traders send fewer coins to trading platforms, the likelihood of near-term selling diminishes, suggesting that market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

This dynamic reflects a broader risk-off sentiment, with investors refraining from actively deploying capital without clear macroeconomic signals. 

The reduced flow of capital into the trading ecosystem suggests that institutional and retail players alike are reluctant to initiate new positions without greater conviction.

Bitcoin’s price continues to be shaped more by shifts in liquidity conditions and global economic sentiment than by endogenous crypto market developments.

The contraction in liquidity and decline in speculative behavior are key indicators of the current cautious stance across the digital asset market.

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The volatility mirrored a broader risk-off sentiment, with global equity markets also sliding during this period. However, Bitcoin’s price recovered some ground toward the latter half of March, stabilizing between $82,000 and $85,000 as market anxieties cooled.

This turbulence significantly impacted the Coinbase Premium Index, which is widely used to gauge US investor sentiment. A positive premium indicates stronger US demand, while a negative premium suggests weaker demand relative to international markets. Throughout March 2025, the index remained predominantly negative, signaling lower US demand. 

The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the difference in Bitcoin’s trading price on Coinbase versus other major exchanges such as Binance, Bitstamp, and OKX. Since Coinbase has a large US-based customer base, the index effectively measures the sentiment and behavior of American investors.

A rising premium often signals robust institutional or retail buying in the US, while a falling or negative premium suggests that domestic investors are offloading Bitcoin or demonstrating lower interest relative to their global counterparts.

In March 2025, the Coinbase Premium Index consistently showed a negative reading, with values frequently ranging from -3% to -6%. This persistent discount indicated that Bitcoin prices on Coinbase lagged behind those on international platforms, reflecting softer demand from US investors. The negative trend mirrors the significant macroeconomic developments in the United States, contributing to reduced risk appetite among domestic traders.

Several US-specific factors were key in pushing the Coinbase Premium Index into negative territory throughout March. The Trump administration’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods introduced fresh uncertainty into financial markets.

These policies triggered concerns about rising costs for US businesses and consumers, dampening investor sentiment. As traditional markets sold off in response to these trade tensions, risk assets like Bitcoin experienced heightened volatility, leading US investors to reduce their exposure to speculative assets.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both entered correction territory in early March, falling more than 10% from their February highs. This sharp equity downturn likely prompted many investors to liquidate Bitcoin holdings to cover losses elsewhere or raise cash amid declining risk appetite. As a result, Coinbase prices trended lower relative to global platforms.

Despite the predominantly negative trend, the Coinbase Premium Index briefly spiked into positive territory on March 14–15, climbing from around +1% to +2%. This shift aligned with a short-lived stabilization in Bitcoin’s price after it found support around the $80,000 mark. 

The Fed’s decision to maintain rates without signaling imminent hikes temporarily relieved financial markets. While broader concerns persisted, this perceived stability encouraged some US investors to resume dip-buying in risk assets like Bitcoin, temporarily driving Coinbase prices higher.

However, this positive momentum proved short-lived. By March 16, the index had returned to negative territory as macroeconomic uncertainty persisted.

The prolonged negative premium highlighted a risk-averse environment in which American investors were less willing to accumulate Bitcoin, especially amid escalating trade tensions, a volatile stock market, and stagnant monetary policy.

The brief premium spike in mid-March reflected a momentary shift in sentiment tied to improved short-term outlooks in financial markets. However, this optimism quickly faded with the broader macroeconomic backdrop remaining unstable. The data shows that while Bitcoin operates independently of traditional markets in some respects, it remains susceptible to economic and geopolitical developments — particularly in the US.

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