04 August Bitfinex alpha | BTC integrates and leverages drops as the market is waiting for a catalyst

Bitcoin has crucially destroyed local range support at $115,800, reaching its $112,210 low after multiple retests over the past three weeks. This failure coincides with the wider risk across the entire crypto complex, especially in altcoins where leverage was actively constructed. The other indexes represent the broader Altcoin market, but they excluded the top 10 coins by market capitalization, resulting in a drawdown of 18.7% over the last 10 days, eliminating nearly $59 billion in market capitalization before rebounding on Sunday.

This surrender phase peaked on August 2nd, with daily liquidation exceeding $1 billion. BTC and ETH were leading the liquidation volume, but Altcoins experienced a deeper drawdown in 2025 with a total crypto liquidation marking one of the most offensive rewinds. Despite the high betty nature of Altcoins, even key assets like ETH reduced the week by 9.7%, while the Broader Others Index fell 11.4%. Just a few names like ENA and Pengu highlight how limited capital turnover has turned amid increased macro pressure and reduced risk.

Structurally, BTC still holds a relative strength position with a market capitalization of over $2.2 trillion. This postpones the 2021 cycle peak, but ETH and Altcoins are below previous highs. This difference highlights the role of BTC as an institutionally driven asset for macroresidents, in contrast to the speculative vulnerability of the broader market. As ETF flows cool, Fed policies turn into more takis and risk appetite declines, consolidation or further downsides are expected, unless aggressive spot buying is re-emerged. The technical bounce from the $112,000 area is plausible, but the broader recovery could be dependent on facility flows or updated demand via clear macrocatalysts.

Latest economic data from the US highlights the growing vulnerability under seemingly resilient headline figures. The June inflation report revealed enduring price pressures driven primarily by new tariffs that reduced the costs of goods, such as furniture, clothing and recreational items.

Personal Consumption Expenses (PCE) rose modestly, but actual consumer spending was hardly moving. This indicates that inflation is undermining purchasing power. Wage growth has softened, with GDP rising by 3% in the second quarter, much of which is due to a sharp decline in imports, increasing weak domestic demand.

Excluding trade and inventory, actual GDP rose by just 1.2%, referring to a stagnant business investment and slowing consumer activity. Meanwhile, the July employment report has been added to the darkness. Employment slowed to just 73,000 new jobs, unemployment rates tickled at up to 4.2%, and workforce participation continued to decline. Despite the seasonal tailwinds, sectors such as construction and hospitality had declined in performance, but the decline in foreign-born workers reflected resistance to tightening immigration policies. These trends collectively complicate the Federal Reserve policy outlook. With the stickiness of inflation and declining labor force, the Fed is likely to slow down speed cuts, waiting for a more clear signal before adjusting its stance. In parallel, the crypto industry has experienced a strong revival of institutional engagement, characterized by bold Treasury allocations and reorganisation of regulatory authorities. Sharplink Gaming has created headlines with ETH’s $295 million purchase, increasing its total holdings by over 438,000, establishing it as the world’s second largest corporate holder. The company’s aggressive capital deployment and staking strategy, supported by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin and former BlackRock executives, reflects the growing institutional convictions as a financial asset for ETH. Meanwhile, regulatory momentum has also been built. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has launched Project Crypto, a drastic initiative to modernize the US digital asset framework. The initiative, which moves away from the highly-enforced agency past, promises clarity in token classification, enables authorized cryptography to “super apps,” encourages traditional tokenized finance, and recovers the potential of US leadership in digital innovation. Finally, DeVVStream, a NASDAQ-registered carbon credit company, has announced a $10 million allocation to Bitcoin and Solana as part of its Sustainable Cryptocurrency Program. Funded by the $300 million Convertible Notrease, the move combines financial strategy with environmental impact, highlighting Crypto’s integration into an increasingly diversified corporate finance model. Together, these developments demonstrate mature digital asset spaces that are increasingly aligned with both facility capital and forward-looking regulatory frameworks.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-integrates-and-leverages-drops-as-the-market-is-waiting-for-a-catalyst/feed/ 0 51487 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/citi-analysts-unveil-bitcoin-bull-case-price-target-say-btc-returns-since-2024-can-largely-be-explained-by-one-catalyst-alone-report/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/citi-analysts-unveil-bitcoin-bull-case-price-target-say-btc-returns-since-2024-can-largely-be-explained-by-one-catalyst-alone-report/#respond Mon, 28 Jul 2025 15:09:37 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/citi-analysts-unveil-bitcoin-bull-case-price-target-say-btc-returns-since-2024-can-largely-be-explained-by-one-catalyst-alone-report/

Analysts at banking giant Citi are laying out price targets on Bitcoin (BTC) based on a surprisingly simple forecast model.

In a new report seen by the Financial Times, Citigroup analysts Alex Saunders and Nathaniel Rupert offer a new way of valuing digital assets, ostensibly suggesting that the price of Bitcoin is influenced simply by how many people want to own it.

While Citi’s previous Bitcoin price models incorporated various data inputs like mining electricity costs, adoption rates and more, the analysts have updated their forecast to account for the reality that crypto assets are very much a part of the traditional macroeconomic picture, rather than an isolated subset without relevance to the average investor’s portfolio.

“Around the fall of FTX, the majority of client questions were, ‘How does crypto effect MY market or the macroeconomy?’ – the answer then was, probably not much.

We think that is changing. Firstly, crypto assets have grown and now represent a more meaningful amount of capital. Crypto market-caps now rival all but the largest-cap equity names. Secondly, crypto-related assets are now meaningful parts of some of the largest financial indices. Crypto-related securities are now members of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell. Importantly, this means even crypto-agnostic clients need to have a view to manage their portfolios.”

Citi now has a “bull case” price target of $199,340 for BTC at the end of this year, a “base case” for $135,133, and a “bear” case for $63,675.

As of late, the analysts say that the price of BTC is primarily driven by one factor.

The Citi analysts say that the net weekly flows into Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have had a “very strong contemporaneous relationship” with the returns on BTC.

“Since launch, 41% of Bitcoin return variation can be explained by flows alone (the relationship is just as strong even accounting for equity returns). So far this year, we have seen just over $19 billion of flows, including $5.5 billion month-to-date. We expect flows to continue for the rest of the year as more institutions approve and potentially advise underlying clients on these vehicles.

There is significant uncertainty around these flows; we forecast $15 billion given the pace seen so far year-to-date. This would slightly exceed last year’s launch, but the recent acceleration in flows presents upside risk – given each $1 billion of weekly flows is associated with a 3.6% return increase, flows have a meaningful impact on our forecast.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) is in a “waiting game,” trading between $100,000 and $110,000, with analysts highlighting the need for a macro catalyst to break the top of the channel.

The latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report noted lighter spot activity, softer taker-buy flow, and profit-taking by wallets that had bought below $80,000 in April as the reasons behind the consolidation period.

The report cited spot volume declines and a weaker appetite for futures as signs that the rally from April 9’s $74,634 low has stalled. Exchange data showed $58.6 million in long liquidations and $65.2 million in short liquidations within 24 hours, flushing out leverage on both sides. 

Open interest in perp and dated contracts dropped 7.2% to 334,000 BTC, indicating forced position cuts and a cleaner derivatives landscape. 

The report noted that June corresponds with the close of a historically strong second quarter, with the average return in this period since 2013 standing at nearly 27%. Meanwhile, the third quarter averages only 6%, often with tighter ranges.

Support between $94,000 and $99,000 is still attracting bids, bolstered by the short-term holder’s realized price, which is now nearing $98,779. 

Traders stepped in when the spot price dipped to $98,579 on June 22, lifting the pair to $108,250 after geopolitical tensions eased. 

The report framed the current structure as a “waiting game” in which bulls and bears balance out until fresh demand arrives, most likely from exchange-traded fund flows during US trading hours.

Macro drivers under watch

Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, flagged Federal Reserve policy as the primary variable. He noted that the market will likely react positively once the Fed announces rate cuts, adding that risk assets need cheaper funding and better liquidity to attract new capital. 

Søndergaard tracks liquidation heat maps and institutional wallet signals to gauge whether large buyers accumulate or stand aside.

Bitfinex Alpha echoed that view, stating that exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows must accelerate and global liquidity must expand before Bitcoin can clear the upper band of its two-month range. 

Without deeper cash allocations, spot bids fade near $110,000, and sellers cap the price by trimming their positions. 

Still, the report saw no imminent breakdown as long as key support levels hold and structural positioning remains constructive.

Mentioned in this article

President Donald Trump’s advisor on crypto and artificial intelligence (AI), David Sacks, is highlighting a catalyst that could dramatically increase demand for US treasuries.

In a new Bloomberg interview, Sacks says the passing of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act) in the U.S. Senate and the potential signing of the piece of legislation into law offers “regulatory clarity and stability” for the stablecoin crypto sector.

According to Sacks, the GENIUS Act could trigger massive demand for US government debt from various parts of the world.

“… the [stablecoin] float is expected to grow from, call it, roughly $250 billion to trillions of dollars. And that would create more demand for the US dollar internationally. I think you could see other economies start to dollarize from the bottom up as their citizens would prefer to use US digital dollars as opposed to whatever fiat currency they’re using. And that would create potentially trillions of dollars of new demand for US treasuries.”

The GENIUS Act will also spur innovation in the payments industry, according to the White House advisor.

“And I think that the bill will provide the framework that will give confidence to a lot of traditional financial players to enter the space. And so I think you’re going to see new stablecoin products. And I think you will also see stablecoins being used as payments. I think this is one of the really exciting things about the bill, is that blockchain infrastructure will be used as a new kind of dollar-based payment system, that’s faster, more efficient, smoother. It’s a payment system of the future.”

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Billionaire “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach says the US will likely witness one crisis this year that would force the Fed to resume a rate-cutting cycle.

In a new CNBC interview, the founder and CEO of investment firm DoubleLine Capital says he sees the Fed cutting rates this year, but it won’t be related to the Fed’s dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and an average of 2% annual inflation.

“I do think they’ll cut rates, but I don’t think it’s going to be because of much better inflation data because I don’t think it’s going to get much better. I doubt the unemployment rate is going to be a shocker in the near term, like in the next few months.

But I do think they’ll cut rates because some liquidity problems may come up. So I do think they’ll probably cut rates by year end, and I still think it’s probably less than the market thinks, but I’m closer to the market now because I’ve stayed at two and the market has gone from five or six down to two and a half [cuts].”

According to Gundlach, some institutions are starting to witness liquidity problems. Gundlach uses Harvard’s recent bond sale to show that US-based entities are in need of cash, but says other institutions are having the same issue.

“The thing that I feel is starting to get talked about, and I think might be significant in the next market problem is this illiquidity issue that [has] developed and it’s getting some play on the newswires with Harvard and some elite universities where they don’t have any money. 

They’re asset-rich but they’re cash-poor. Harvard has a $53 billion endowment, and they’ve tapped the bond market now twice for basically operating cash. And the reason is – and I’m just using Harvard as a placeholder because this has been in the news and reported with statistics – they report 40% of their endowment in private equity. 

I suspect that another big slug is in private credit, which has been a booming asset class. We’re starting to see stories of some of the faster-moving university endowments saying, ‘We might want to exit some of our commitments…’

I think this is going to be an issue.”

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Macro investor and fund manager Dan Tapiero believes Bitcoin (BTC) could turn bullish amid a potential change in US monetary policy.

In a new thread on the social media platform X, Tapiero says the uncertainty caused by tariffs is having a “growth-dampening impact” on both the US and China.

According to the macro investor, the Federal Reserve could consequently be forced to cut rates, just like China’s central bank already has, catapulting Bitcoin to a rally of over 2x from the current level.

“If US slows hard, could Fed get to 1.4% -250bps (basis points) from here?

Imagine how high Bitcoin would [go] in that scenario.

$200,000+”

Bitcoin is trading at $97,095 at time of writing.

Earlier this week, the central bank of the world’s second-largest economy, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), announced it would reduce its policy rate it charges commercial banks for short-term loans by 10 basis points from 1.5% to 1.4%.

The PBOC also announced it will lower the reserve requirement ratio, or the amount of cash that commercial banks must hold in reserves, by 50 basis points, per CNBC. Lowering the reserve requirement ratio is expected to release additional liquidity amounting to around one trillion yuan, approximately $138.5 billion, to the market.

Earlier this month, Tapiero said consumer expectations on the US economy have fallen to levels last witnessed during the Global Financial Crisis in March of 2009. The corrective measures that could be taken, argued Tapiero, would impact Bitcoin positively.

“This is extreme data. Much lower rates and US dollar needed to offset fiscal austerity. Fiat debasement equals +BTC.”

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Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts believes one catalyst could catapult Bitcoin (BTC) to nearly double its price in months.

Coutts says the total global liquidity has reached a new all-time high level of just under $140 trillion after a decades-long period of contraction.

According to Coutts, global liquidity is what has “historically fueled explosive asset price rallies.”

Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst says the total global liquidity is set to continue climbing and this could trigger an increase of around 98% in the price of Bitcoin.

“With central banks clearly behind the curve, we could see global liquidity rise by approximately 10% or $13 trillion over the next 12 months. This would equate to $186,000 BTC using a blended regression model.

Those who held steady and accumulated during recent market turbulence should be better for it in what comes next.”

Bitcoin is trading at $93,772 at time of writing.

The crypto analyst further says that Bitcoin’s volatility levels are moving in an inversely correlated manner relative to traditional assets.

“It has been patently clear to me since 2022 that while Bitcoin’s volatility is decreasing, what is more striking is that traditional assets are becoming more volatile. Volatility isn’t the enemy, by the way, provided you’re being compensated by higher returns.

That is not the case for Bonds and Equities relative to Bitcoin. And this has massive implications for asset allocation and portfolio construction going forward.”

According to Coutts’ chart, based on data from the last four months, Bitcoin has recorded a volatility-normalized return of -7.12 compared to the S&P 500 index’s -45.08. The volatility-normalized return is a performance metric that compares the return on investment of an asset to its volatility – the higher the figure, the better the risk-adjusted return.

Since 2022, Bitcoin has recorded a volatility-normalized return of 131.89 compared to the S&P 500 index’s -37.37.

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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will soon start printing rallies due to one main catalyst.

In a new blog post, Hayes says that Fed chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments on monetary policy indicate market liquidity will start to increase, which has ignited massive Bitcoin rallies in the past.

According to Hayes, the Fed will start to transition from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), beginning with its policy on US Treasury bonds.

QE is a monetary policy used by central banks to prop up the economy by printing more money to accumulate financial assets. New money flows into the financial system, boosting spending and investments.

“Powell proved last [month] that fiscal dominance is alive and well. Therefore, I am confident QT, at least regarding Treasuries, will stop in the short to medium term. Going further, Powell stated that while the Fed may maintain mortgage back security runoff, it will net buy Treasuries. Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is Treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced. Furthermore, because the banks and the Treasury demand it, the Fed will grant the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) exemption for the banks, which is another form of Treasury QE.”

Hayes believes Bitcoin remains on track to hit $250,000 by the year’s end if the Fed shifts to QE.

“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for Treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end. Of course, this is not an exact science, but using the gold example, if I had to place a bet on whether I thought Bitcoin would hit $76,500 or $110,000 first, I would bet on the latter. Even if US stocks continue falling in reaction to tariffs, a collapse in earnings expectations, and or foreigner demand waning, I am confident that the odds favor Bitcoin continuing to climb higher.”

Bitcoin is trading for $82,702 at time of writing, down 3.2% in the last 24 hours.

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These Dogecoin Levels Stand Out In Terms Of On-Chain Resistance

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about the resistance walls present ahead for DOGE based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). The URPD is an on-chain metric created by the analytics firm Glassnode that tells us, in short, about the amount of supply that was bought at various levels that Dogecoin has visited in its history.

Coins are said to be ‘bought’ when they become involved in a transaction on the blockchain. As such, the URPD records the price at the time of any coin’s last transaction as its cost basis.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the Dogecoin URPD is looking right now:

As is visible in the above graph, the largest supply wall that Dogecoin has is present around the $0.07 level, where over 20% of all coins in circulation were last transacted. Given that the DOGE price is currently trading far above this level, all of this supply would be sitting on a notable profit.

Generally, when the cryptocurrency’s price retests the cost basis of investors who were in profit just before, the holders may react by accumulating more if the mood in the market is bullish. This is because of the fact that they may be inclined to think the same level would end up being profitable again in the future, so the retest would look like a ‘dip‘ opportunity.

Similarly, when the retest occurs from the opposite direction, investors can react by selling instead, as they may fear that the asset would fall back again, so this could be their opportunity to at least exit with their entire investment back.

From the chart, it’s visible that in terms of the loss levels of Dogecoin, two currently stick out for their size: $0.18 and $0.21. The former hosts the acquisition level of around 8% of the supply, while the latter that of 7%.

Considering the significant amount of supply present at them, the levels could act as major resistance barriers due to the selling effect explained earlier. If DOGE can cross these levels, however, there are no other supply walls as large in sight. “Breaking through both could be the catalyst for the next major bull rally,” notes Martinez.

DOGE Price

Dogecoin made an attempt at recovery last week, but the memecoin’s price has since returned to its baseline as it’s now trading around $0.17.

Cryptocurrency analyst Kevin Svenson is highlighting a potential bullish catalyst for altcoins.

In a new video, Svenson tells his 82,800 YouTube subscribers that an expansion in the global money supply could trigger a rally in altcoins.

According to Svenson, previous altcoin rallies have erupted after an increase in the global money supply.

“Every major bull run for these altcoins… …they really did not start running until global liquidity exploded, you know, went up tremendously…

And what we’ve seen is that until recently global liquidity we were testing the 2022 highs as support just recently… There has been no growth for the M2 (money supply) at all really. But it’s starting to come up… …you can see the M2 is slowly coming up now to a breakout.

And that breakout in global liquidity may be exactly what the altcoins need to start doing something for real.”

The crypto analyst says that he sees altcoins replicating the price action they displayed during the rally that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to Svenson, the market cap of altcoins could go up by around 190% from the current level.

“If you just extrapolate… It would take us up to $730 billion roughly which would be a new all-time high…

That might be a target zone for altcoins and then they could come back to retest the trend line. And maybe go up later it might just be a very steady uptrend where there’s just a lot of profit taking at every new high.”

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