Bitcoin’s price has spent the past week hovering within a tight band and bouncing between $108,000 and $112,000 without any clear direction yet. There have been multiple rejections at the $112,000 price level and technical analysis shows pressure around the 200-day moving averages on the four-hour chart. 

Notably, a technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Daan Crypto shows Bitcoin is at risk of a breakdown below $100,000, but bulls still have a chance to stage a recovery rally in the weeks ahead.

Analyst Warns About Sweep Of Monthly Lows

In his latest post on the social media platform X, Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is currently indecisive, and its price action is leaning toward a sweep of the monthly lows. This movement is based on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart, which shows the Bitcoin price was recently rejected at the 200MA/EMA last week. 

Related Reading

The 4-hour candlestick chart below shows Bitcoin has been trading in a defined range since August 25, with equal lows forming a weak base around $107,000 and liquidity sitting just beneath. This makes a stop-hunt sweep a possible next step.

Such a move, the analyst explained, would likely open up a bearish case of panic across the market, which might eventually cause fears of Bitcoin collapsing under the $100,000 price level. 

However, the analyst also identified the $103,000 to $105,000 price zone as the support level where buyers can step in. This area, according to him, would also be a logical entry point for swing long positions if the Bitcoin price indeed breaks down below $107,000.

Conditions For A Bullish Recovery

According to the analysis, Bitcoin bulls have a chance to prevent any breakdown below $100,000 by holding above $105,000 to $103,000. Despite laying out a bearish base case, Daan also described a roadmap for the bulls. 

Related Reading

The first condition would be strength above $115,000, which would mark a break of August’s range low, which has turned into resistance in the first week of August. A break and close above $115,000 would invalidate any short-term bearish momentum. 

Alternatively, he pointed to a quick liquidity grab below the monthly lows at $107,000, followed by a reclaim of the $107,000 and $112,000 levels, as the most bullish scenario. According to the analyst, this second setup could pave the way for a sustained one-to-two-month uptrend rally through October and November. 

For now, the analyst said he is on the sidelines except for short-term scalps. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,733, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Key points:

• Bitcoin sees a modest rebound into the weekly candle close, but traders see key resistance overhead.

• BTC price action risks a much deeper drop if bulls fail to reclaim that resistance zone.

• Fibonacci analysis hints that such a drop may not pass more than 10%.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned above $111,000 into Sunday’s weekly close as analysis saw “promising” recovery signs.

BTC price “logical” bounce zone near $100,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining around 1% on the day to hit local highs of $111,369.

The pair’s latest dip, which followed US macroeconomic data, saw bulls preserve $110,000 support.

“This is actually promising on $BTC,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe responded on X.

“It makes a new higher low and holds the support at $110K. Would be great if we crack $112K and fire up the bull run.”

Market participants continued to hold diverging views over short-term BTC price action. Popular trader Cipher X suggested that $112,000 could spark new lows should bulls fail to reclaim it next.

$BTC holds around $111K, but structure hints at a possible dip

If momentum stalls below $112K, I expect a pullback toward $108K support

Nothing major is happening across the market right now – it’s the weekend so best to stay patient and relaxed. pic.twitter.com/JP8lUHoKNz

— Cipher X (@Cipher2X) September 7, 2025

“We either flip $113,000 and pump to new highs, or if we reject here we drop to $100,000,” fellow trader Crypto Tony added on the day, adopting a more categorical perspective based on the weekly chart.

Trader TurboBullCapital referenced the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $115,035 and $101,760, respectively, as important levels to watch going forward.

“Lose the $107k area & the downside target becomes the $101k level which also happens to coincide with the MA200,” part of an X post concluded. 

“This is a logical area to expect a bounce.”

Bitcoin’s “worst case scenario” coincides with $100,000

As Cointelegraph reported, one theory on longer timeframes involves market makers on exchange order books.

Related: Bitcoin bear market due in October with $50K bottom target: Analysis

Short sellers and bears, it suggests, could be the victims of manipulation prior to a giant short squeeze event taking the market to new all-time highs. This would echo price action in late 2024.

In the meantime, Fibonacci retracement levels imply a maximum drop of 10%, again based on historical behavior since the end of last year.

“$BTC usually bottoms at 0.382 Fibonacci level. This happened in Q3 2024, Q2 2025 and will probably happen again,” popular trader ZYN observed.

“For anyone wondering how low we can go, 0.382 Fibonacci level is currently around $100K. So the worst case scenario is a 10% drop before a 50% rally above $150,000.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

See price at Amazon

Google Pixel 10

Very promising battery specs
6.3-inch display
Loaded with Google AI features

See price at Amazon

Google Pixel 10 Pro

Top-tier specs with small display
Satellite SOS
Powerful AI tools
Bright display

See price at Amazon

Google Pixel 10 Pro XL

Biggest non-folding Pixel phone
Best specs and AI features

Spigen Liquid Air

Mous Limitless

Thinborne

C. Scott Brown / Android Authority

Pixel 10 Pro case

Spigen Ultra Hybrid

dbrand Grip case

Otterbox Defender Series Pro XT with Pixelsnap

Spigen Tough Armor

Bitcoin’s price rally has hit turbulence over the past 48 hours, and this has opened the door for bearish voices to resurface. After reaching a fresh high of $124,128 just three days ago, the leading cryptocurrency has since declined by about 4.8%, sliding back to the $117,000 to $118,000 price zone at the time of writing. This pullback has opened up a possibility that the much-anticipated macro top may already be in, and further downside may be possible if there is a lack of bullish momentum.

Related Reading

Analyst Maps Out Bearish Bitcoin Wave Structure

Bitcoin showed signs of building on in early August after bouncing off a low around $112,000. However, after its latest high at $124,128, sellers quickly stepped in, pulling the price down. The decline has been accompanied by fading short-term momentum. Although it might be too early to conclude, relative strength index (RSI) readings are starting to point to a bearish divergence on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart.

Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst CasiTrades outlined what they believe could be the start of a larger ABC corrective structure for Bitcoin. According to the projection, Bitcoin may be entering Wave A, which consists of a five-wave corrective structure that could send the price to as low as $77,000 at the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. 

The roadmap of this price crash envisions an initial Wave 1 drop to $112,000, a brief Wave 2 recovery back to $120,000, and then another Wave 3 decline into the $89,000 range. After this, the next step is a Wave 4 retest break of $100,000 before reversing into Wave 5, which brings the ultimate Wave A bottom at $77,000.

Chart Image From X: CasiTrades

The accompanying chart posted by the analyst shows the wave counts with subwave precision. Interestingly, the analyst also pointed out that the ultimate macro target for the end of this correction is at $60,000, right at the golden 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This is at the macro level and can only come to fruition if the ABC corrective waves play out to completion.

A Bearish Tone Amidst Bullish Predictions

This analysis introduces a sobering counterpoint at a time when many forecasts continue to paint Bitcoin as being on track for $150,000 and beyond. Even though strong institutional inflows and technical milestones, such as the realized price flipping above the 200-day moving average are bullish indicators, the bearish scenario from CasiTrades could still be valid. 

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim bullish momentum, the current correction could change into something deeper, making the $124,000 high not just a pause but the macro top of this cycle.

Related Reading

Although many cryptocurrencies have largely followed Bitcoin’s movements this cycle, CasiTrade’s analysis isn’t a bearish case for the entire crypto market. According to the analyst, if this bearish case plays out, it could cause the long-discussed capital rotation out of Bitcoin and into large-cap altcoins, some of which may surge to new all-time price highs even as Bitcoin retraces. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $118,203.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView