Cardano’s retail base has flipped bearish after weeks of drawdowns, setting up conditions where whales could step in.

Data from Santiment shows ADA’s bullish-to-bearish commentary ratio slumped to 1.5:1 this week — the lowest in five months. The sentiment dip coincided with a 5% rebound, suggesting traders who sold into frustration may have helped mark a local bottom.

Historically, ADA rallies have tended to begin when retail sentiment is weakest. Santiment flagged a similar setup in mid-August, when a 2:1 ratio aligned with a surge. Conversely, euphoric spikes — like the 12.8:1 ratio earlier this summer — have preceded sharp pullbacks.

Sentiment extremes matter because crypto markets are unusually sensitive to retail psychology. When optimism peaks, the crowd often buys into tops. When pessimism sets in, larger players use the selling pressure to accumulate. That pattern has been visible across multiple assets this year, including bitcoin and XRP.

For Cardano, the shift suggests whales could use current weakness to build positions, especially if retail continues to capitulate.

The crowd-versus-price divergence remains one of crypto’s more reliable short-term trading signals. For now, ADA’s impatient traders may have just handed longer-term investors their entry point.

An independent investigation commissioned by Input Output found no evidence to support accusations of fraud or misconduct in Cardano’s decade-old ADA Voucher Program, according to a forensic report released on.

The review, conducted jointly by law firm McDermott Will & Emery and accounting firm BDO, examined public claims that insiders misused ADA, manipulated blockchain upgrades to block redemptions, or improperly diverted unredeemed tokens.

The 150-page report, dated Sept. 2, 2025, concluded the allegations “do not have any basis.”

Redemption efforts and findings

Investigators reviewed tens of thousands of documents, carried out blockchain and forensic analyses, and interviewed 18 people ranging from former employees to voucher holders.

Their findings showed that 14,282 vouchers, representing 99.7% of all ADA sold in the program, were successfully redeemed through a mix of on-chain redemptions and a follow-up recovery initiative.

Contrary to claims that elderly investors were disproportionately targeted, only 6.1% of vouchers were sold to people over 65. Of those, just 14 vouchers remain unredeemed.

The report said the program included safeguards to prevent misrepresentation, and distributors who broke rules were suspended. When Cardano’s Byron-era redemption process ended in 2017, 390 vouchers, worth 318 million ADA, remained unclaimed.

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Input Output launched a “Post-Sweep Redemption Project” that deployed consultants and private investigators to track down voucher holders. That effort raised the overall redemption rate to near totality.

Use of unredeemed funds

The report also addressed concerns about unredeemed ADA. In 2023, 68.25 million tokens judged unlikely to be redeemed were transferred to Cardano Development Holdings, a Cayman-based foundation overseen by the nonprofit Intersect.

Those funds supported ecosystem growth through continuity contracts, grants, and community projects. Intersect was formed in July 2023 by Input Output and EMURGO, which each pledged $500,000 annually to the group’s operating budget.

The report said much of the transferred ADA went toward contracts with Input Output Infrastructure, which in turn paid subcontractors under strict monitoring procedures.

The findings mark the strongest rebuttal to long-running social media accusations that Cardano insiders enriched themselves at the expense of early investors. Input Output said it released the full report to “ensure transparency” and encouraged community members to review it.

The following is a guest post and analysis from Shane Neagle, Editor In Chief fromThe Tokenist.

On June 23rd, Midnight Foundation released its first tokenomics paper. Earlier in June, Charles Hoskinson, the co-founder of Ethereum (ETH) and founder of Cardano (ADA), pegged Midnight as “the single biggest event in the history of Cardano,” with a caveat: “if it is successful.”

Although the altcoin season had a pullback this week, and the crypto market is more diluted than ever with tens of thousands of tokens, it is worth investigating new projects. After all, the exit of the Biden administration represents the departure of a hostile force that used many underhanded tactics to debank crypto projects.

In that light, what is the merit behind Midnight?

Cardano’s Need for Midnight

It is no secret that the Cardano blockchain is generally perceived as lagging behind other networks such as Ethereum or Solana. By total value locked (TVL), Cardano ranks 20th according to DefiLlama, with $360 million in capital across ~50 dApps. For comparison, Solana has a TVL of $10 billion across ~240 dApps, which is again 8x lower than Ethereum.

This lack of significant market share is largely attributed to Cardano’s robust academic approach to smart contract development and blockchain frameworks, ensuring that the network has all its ducks in a row to avoid reputation-disabling vulnerabilities down the line.

Charles Hoskinson also noted the lack of stablecoins as a contributing factor, having floated the idea of converting around $100 million worth of ADA tokens into USDM stablecoins, which are issued by the regulated Moneta Digital LLC service.

Moreover, if scaling of Cardano goes as planned, in addition to the inflow of stablecoins post-Genius and Clarity Acts, Hoskinson boldly forecasted that the altcoin market will see trillions of value—and that Cardano is expected to play a major role in it. But what is Midnight’s role?

Midnight’s Background and Pitch

Midnight is closely tied to Cardano’s IOHK (Input Output Hong Kong), later rebranded as Input Output Global (IOG). While the Swiss-based Cardano Foundation is in charge of developing the blockchain ecosystem, such as adoption and community-building, IOG is the software engineering organization behind Cardano’s core tech and roadmap.

As the current president of the Midnight Foundation launched in May, Fahmi Syed served within IOG to push the project, in addition to contributing to Polkadot and Kusama via Parity Technologies. Prior to Syed’s crypto involvement, he was the chief operating officer (COO) at UK-based Fifthdelta, which emerged as a startup from Citadel money managers in 2021.

Midnight Foundation pitches the network as a “fourth-generation blockchain built for secure, compliant, and private decentralised applications.” What does that mean exactly?

1. TradFi has been notoriously cautious to adopt blockchain because the default one is too transparent. Both Ethereum and Bitcoin have transactions publicly visible, which doesn’t lend itself to safeguarding customer data and financial privacy.
2. Midnight aims to step into this gap by providing programmable privacy, utilizing zero-knowledge proof cryptography. This tech enables data/transaction verification without revealing identity, making it regulatory-compliant in the process.

Specifically, Midnight Network uses ZK-SNARKs (Zero-Knowledge Succinct Non-Interactive Arguments of Knowledge) with its own smart contract programming language, Compact. Although zero-knowledge proof is more computationally intensive off-chain, this tech reduces on-chain load without requiring a trusted setup (depending on the variant used).

Per transaction, this approach exerts higher fees due to higher computational costs, but ZK-rollups turn this around by bundling many transactions into a single cryptographic proof. Ultimately, this reduces on-chain load and transaction costs.

In short, the purpose of Midnight is to act as a bridge between private and public ledgers, eliminating the exposure of on-chain transactions. The key to furthering that goal is Midnight’s Zswap ledger, which facilitates atomic token swaps.

After all, atomicity is crucial for cross-chain transfers between multiple token types and privacy layers. Overall, this makes Midnight Network a promising project. It is worth remembering that the ideal scenario for the crypto market to thrive is to create a cohesive blockchain ecosystem in which users seamlessly transact between different parts.

Midnight’s Ecosystem Rollout

At press time, Midnight listed 52 dApps across infrastructure, DAO, DeFi, wallets, NFTs, prediction markets, gaming, AI, and other areas that benefit from programmable privacy. As with many other crypto projects, Midnight is unrolling two types of tokens:

• NIGHT – native utility token for on-chain governance and ecosystem incentives, distributed to network participants securing the network. NIGHT is native to both Cardano and Midnight.
• DUST – unlike ETH, which pays for transactions across Ethereum dApps, NIGHT doesn’t serve that function. Instead, NIGHT tokens generate DUST, a renewable resource.
• As long as Midnight participants hold NIGHT tokens, they can use the generated DUST to execute free transactions, which is itself an incentive mechanism. DUST decays after generation (designating DUST address by NIGHT token holders), which prevents it from serving as a store of value.

The decision to go that route was driven by Midnight’s privacy focus, as DUST doesn’t leave a metadata trail like other single-token ecosystems. This also includes resistance to MEV manipulation.

In the Midnight tokenomics and incentives whitepaper released in June 2025, NIGHT token supply is limited to 24 billion, minted on Cardano and mirrored on the Midnight network.

This supply is hard-capped, which means greater demand for transactions will not expand it. Under the umbrella of Midnight Foundation, the subsidiary Midnight TGE is in charge of this tokenomics model, in addition to Treasury and Reserve.

Reserve serves to issue NIGHT tokens to the network’s block producers, marking them as uncirculated supply.

Ongoing Midnight Token Airdrop

Dubbed “Glacier Drop” for phase 1 rollout, the airdrop will run from July through August, delivering 50% (12 billion NIGHT tokens) to Cardano (ADA), 20% to Bitcoin (BTC), and 30% across Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), BNB Chain (BNB), and Brave (BAT).

Every three months, 25% of NIGHT token supply is unlocked, with the total unlock reached after 360 days. Initially, NIGHT tokens are locked, becoming tradable gradually to avoid supply shocks. To encourage adoption, any crypto holders with a minimum of $100 across the aforementioned chains are eligible to claim NIGHT tokens.

After the Glacier Drop, two more claim phases will follow—Scavenger Mine and Lost-and-Found. Readers interested in this project should visit the official website and follow claim instructions via the NIGHT Claim portal.

The Bottom Line

Features such as atomic swaps, privacy, and cross-chain functionality have been pillars of the crypto space since the early days. Case in point: Komodo launched open-source AtomicDEX in mid-2019. However, Midnight Network appears to be a more comprehensive project by combining all three aspects.

More importantly, Midnight is tied to Cardano, which is still well-capitalized. Likewise, the legacy blockchain network is known to form relationships with various government entities and organizations. In early 2025, asset manager Grayscale filed to turn Grayscale Cardano Trust into a publicly traded spot ETF.

Without a hostile SEC with Gary Gensler gone, this makes for a more fertile ground for Cardano and its associated projects. In turn, both ADA and NIGHT enthusiasts should proceed with cautious optimism, aware of the risks, but not blind to the opportunity—especially when paired with insights from the highly-rated investment newsletters that help decode emerging trends.

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The following is a guest post and analysis from Shane Neagle, Editor In Chief fromThe Tokenist.

On June 13th, Charles Hoskinson, the co-founder of Ethereum (ETH) and founder of Cardano (ADA), made a bold proposition. In order to put Cardano on the decentralized finance (DeFi) map, the blockchain ecosystem should establish a sovereign wealth fund.

Specifically, to convert 5–10% of the ADA treasury (~$1.2 billion) into harder assets such as Bitcoin or tokenized dollars in the form of stablecoins. Let’s examine the implications of this proposal for Cardano and the wider crypto market.

The Point of a Sovereign Wealth Fund

Sovereign wealth funds are typically associated with governments. Case in point: oil-rich Norway has the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), from which the government draws an amount equal to ~20% of the nation’s budget. Although oil and gas production was the baseline for the fund’s growth, this sector now accounts for less than half of the fund’s total value.

Instead, the fund grows from stock exposure—around 9,000 companies across the world—alongside exposure to fixed income such as bonds (debt issued by governments), real estate, and renewable infrastructure. From 2019 to 2024, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund doubled in value, from $996 billion to nearly $2 trillion.

Therefore, GPFG consistently captures gains from broad market returns, but also from the government’s need to keep spending through debt. Hoskinson hopes to make similar gains through exposure to Bitcoin/stablecoins, and then use those proceeds to acquire more ADA, which would boost ADA’s price.

This strategy is sound for two reasons:

• First, it is a certainty that the U.S. government will spend beyond its means, which will further erode people’s purchasing power with USD. Already institutionalized through spot-traded ETFs, this means that Bitcoin will continue to serve as a wealth-safeguard asset due to its fixed scarcity and proof-of-work security. Likewise, outside of Bitcoin mining companies potentially erecting sell pressure, Bitcoin is not an asset concerned with earnings, unlike stocks.
• Second, exposure to stablecoins is exposure to USG’s sovereignty itself. Both Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT) have massive exposure to U.S. Treasuries. While Tether is nearing $120 billion in U.S. Treasuries, delivering Q1 profit over $1 billion, Circle Reserve Fund has 49.64% in U.S. Treasury debt and 50.36% in U.S. Treasury repurchase agreements.

Owing to such exposure, these top two stablecoin companies are now significant generators of demand for U.S. debt. And as they earn yield, USG is happy because stablecoins extend financial hegemony into the digital sphere. Moreover, this keeps the yield on U.S. Treasuries at a manageable level.

The present U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, had already made this clear in April 2024, when he was the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald:

“Dollar hegemony is fundamental to the United States of America. It matters to us, to our economy…That’s why I’m a fan of properly backed stablecoins. I’m a fan of Tether. I’m a fan of Circle.”

Cardano’s exposure to stablecoins would also be timely because it is the first blockchain asset likely to receive comprehensive regulation.

What About Cardano (ADA) Performance?

Year-to-date, ADA is down nearly 35% but up 56% over a one-year period. Out of its maximum supply of 45 billion ADA, Cardano has 35.36 billion ADA in circulation, leaving plenty of tokens yet to enter circulation and potentially drop ADA’s price if the demand is not there. Cardano’s annual inflation rate is ~2%, which is incidentally the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate.

ADA’s treasury allocation is nearly 31%, from which 5–10% would be converted into either Bitcoin or stablecoins. As a proof-of-stake blockchain, Cardano gives 80% of staking rewards to validators, while 20% are reserved for the treasury.

Given Cardano’s relatively high inflation rate of 2% (Bitcoin has 0.82%), converting more ADA into Bitcoin/stablecoin would pose significant selling pressure that would depress ADA’s price. However, Hoskinson believes this could be mitigated.

Specifically, if 140 million ADA is converted into BTC/stablecoins, such purchases would be spread out over a week via over-the-counter (OTC) exchange desks utilizing a time-weighted average price (TWAP) strategy. TWAP relies on customized time-in-force settings to control execution timing and minimize market disruption.

Notably, Michael Saylor uses this strategy for Strategy’s BTC accumulation. After all, because MSTR stock price is a proxy exposure to Bitcoin, it is in Saylor’s interest to go under the radar during the order execution. Similarly, Hoskinson would have to maintain ADA’s average market price to avoid spooking the market.

Long-term, if gains from BTC and stablecoin exposure lead to repurchasing ADA—similar to stock buybacks—Hoskinson could gain the same benefit as Saylor does with MSTR stock, which regularly outperforms Bitcoin itself due to Saylor’s favorable access to credit markets.

What About Cardano’s Core Demand?

As Ethereum’s dissenting original co-founder, Hoskinson launched Cardano as a robust alternative that is more profit-oriented. To become a blockchain-based ecosystem for DeFi, Cardano first had to complete its smart contract functionality. This was made possible with the completion of the Goguen era, consisting of Allegra, Mary, and Alonzo hard forks in September 2021.

Still in the Basho scaling stage before the Voltaire governance era, Cardano’s blockchain performance is significantly behind the top 10 performers, headed by Solana. According to ChainSpect, Cardano is ranked 34th in real-time transactions per second (TPS) at 0.26 tx/s against its maximum theoretical TPS of 18.02 tx/s.

This gives the chain a finality of 2 minutes against Solana’s 12.8 seconds. Suffice it to say, until Basho is completed, in particular the Hydra layer-2 solution, this is not a competitive position. It is also not confidence-boosting that Cardano is three years older than Solana.

Combined with the fragmentation of the crypto market, and a devastating string of bankruptcies during 2022 culminating in the FTX collapse, Cardano holds only $267.5 million in its DeFi apps compared to $8.3 billion in Solana, or $62.7 billion locked in Ethereum’s dApps.

Moreover, stablecoins only account for $31.44 million in Cardano.

Considering the dwindling gains in the wider altcoin market, as more launched tokens dilute capital, it is now more important than ever to have a stablecoin price anchor. This would make lending and borrowing on dApps less risky with more predictable interest payments.

Likewise, stablecoins on decentralized exchanges (DEXes) offer less slippage and reduced impermanent loss, providing stable yield farming in the process. An inflow of stablecoin liquidity (~$100 million) would likely increase Cardano’s dApp activity. After all, it would be a much safer exposure than gambling on largely fraudulent memecoins.

Already, Cardano’s top dApp by unique active wallets (UAW) is a DEX aggregator called DexHunter, while borrowing and lending dApp Lenfi holds the most value at $11.62 million. Of course, these figures pale in comparison to dApp activity on the top 10 blockchains, which is why Hoskinson’s push is much needed.

The Bottom Line

In late May, the Ethereum Foundation borrowed $2 million in stablecoins from Aave with wrapped ETH (wETH) as the collateral. This dynamic, in which there was no need to sell ETH, points to a more mature DeFi ecosystem that Cardano is yet to approach.

Yet, to reach such maturity, Cardano has to start making bold moves. Allocating some portion of the ADA treasury into Bitcoin and stablecoins is a trajectory in the right direction. At a glance, it may seem that Hoskinson gives preference to BTC over ADA with this move, but it is a conflation of categories.

It is widely understood that Bitcoin acts as a store of value rather than a general-purpose smart contract blockchain like Cardano. Lastly, the current Trump administration clearly signaled that stablecoins will be a sufficient alternative to a cancelled CBDC. It is in this period that Cardano has to stimulate activity, without waiting on the completion of its scalability era.

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The crypto market turned red over the weekend, with Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano’s ADA, and XRP each dropping over 7% as profit-taking set in after a strong week.

Bitcoin fell from a daily high of $111,200 to just over $107,000 on Friday, causing a swift change in sentiment. The drop came as President Donald Trump revived fears of a tariff war with the European Union — threatening a 50% levy as talks were “going nowhere.”

Market cap shed 5% and the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens, fell 2.2% as traders moved to lock in gains amid rising volatility.

The move comes despite bitcoin touching fresh highs above $111,500 just days earlier, with ETF inflows, stablecoin legislation, and institutional buying supporting its rally. But those same tailwinds haven’t kept altcoins afloat in the short term.

“Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high also carries altcoins toward a bullish direction,” said Haiyang Ru, co-CEO of HashKey Group, said in a Telegram message. “But if BTC’s volatility picks up again, traders may rotate into regulated stablecoins — especially with new frameworks in the U.S. and Hong Kong easing that transition.”

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, crypto sentiment recently hit levels last seen in January, just as BTC and ETH reached critical resistance zones. “Unlike previous BTCUSD rallies, the current movement is not just momentum-driven but backed by real demand and macro factors,” he noted.

Still, markets are showing signs of fatigue. Ethereum is struggling to break past its 200-day moving average near $2,650, while altcoins that previously surged — such as HYPE and EIGEN — are now cooling off after double-digit gains.

Analysts warn that if BTC doesn’t establish a new support zone, altcoin losses could deepen.

For now, the weekend pullback displays the fragility of rallies in low-liquidity conditions and the speed at which sentiment can turn.

In a livestream broadcast titled “Post-Quantum Cardano,” ADA founder Charles Hoskinson laid out a roadmap for making the blockchain quantum-resistant. His remarks come amid rapid developments in quantum computing hardware, including breakthroughs from Microsoft and other tech heavyweights, as well as newly released US government standards for post-quantum cryptography.

Hoskinson opened the session by highlighting the accelerating pace of progress in quantum computing: “The quantum computer world is heating up quite a bit, and a lot of magical amazing things are happening… It is my belief that in 5–10 years we’ll probably make substantial progress to the point where we really have to start thinking about updating and modernizing the cryptography.”

He also pointed to the recent actions by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which, in August 2024, finalized several post-quantum encryption standards to begin guiding the industry forward: “Turns out it’s not just my belief—it’s the United States government’s belief as well […] The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) proactively got together […] and they created some standards.”

NIST has published new Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) numbered 203, 204, 205, and 206, which define algorithms intended to resist quantum attacks. Hoskinson noted the significance of this for the global cryptographic community, as these standards will likely spur hardware manufacturers to incorporate specialized circuitry that can handle post-quantum algorithms more efficiently.

Currently, Cardano’s security model—like most major blockchains—relies heavily on elliptic curve cryptography. Hoskinson warned that Shor’s algorithm, which can run on large-scale quantum computers, poses a theoretical threat to such elliptic curve systems:

“The problem is we have this thing called Shor’s algorithm […] if you have a quantum computer, it can kill the security of that [elliptic curve] […] So what a lot of people in the blockchain space do is they say, ‘Oh well, we got a post-quantum signature scheme, so we’re good.’ But that couldn’t be further from the truth.”

He stressed that security in a post-quantum world extends beyond just swapping one signature scheme for another. Instead, blockchains must define comprehensive security models that consider what kind of adversaries they will face—an adversary with a quantum computer also has capabilities like side-channel attacks, hardware infiltration, or even “offline” brute force attempts against older, stored data.

The Three-Step Plan For Cardano

Hoskinson laid out a clear, three-phase approach for transitioning Cardano into a fully quantum-resistant system over the coming years.

1. Develop A Quantum-Secure Model

Cardano’s foundational cryptographic protocols must be audited against a “canonical quantum adversary.” This means systematically reviewing every algorithm for potential vulnerabilities once a capable quantum computer emerges.

“First, we have to develop a Quantum secure model for Cardano, end to end, so we would audit all the algorithms Cardano is using and ask which ones are vulnerable […] That in itself is an interesting question, because there are various opinions in the cryptographic community about what we should assume a quantum adversary can do,” Hoskinson said.

2. Separate Cardano Into Two Chains

Hoskinson next proposed creating a separate, post-quantum proof chain—a “meta” layer that can serve as an immutable checkpoint system for Cardano’s main chain. “You want to separate Cardano into two pieces: there’s Cardano [main chain] […] then we have a proof chain […] basically it runs as an audit log of history so you have an unforgeable system with signatures related to the original history. Over time, this can become a programmable proof chain.”

He pointed to Mithril—Cardano’s existing technology for generating compact certificates of state—as a potential starting point. Updating Mithril with a post-quantum signature scheme would create a secure companion to the classical elliptic curve-based main chain without immediately disrupting its performance.

Hoskinson also mentioned new innovations like lattice fold plus—a compact “folding scheme” from researchers Dan Boneh and Binyu Chen—that could offer powerful cryptographic proof tools for this future proof chain.

3. Full Integration

Finally, once the new proof chain matures and post-quantum schemes become more efficient (and gain hardware support), Cardano can merge these elements into the main chain. “Then the third phase is eventual integration […] as the PQSS schemes get more advanced plus we develop a post-quantum VRF […] we can put that into the chain and merge the meta chain and the main chain together.”

This last phase would require substantial redesign of Cardano’s core protocols, possibly reconsidering the extended UTXO model and incorporating new authenticated data structures or ledger architectures.

Hoskinson cautioned that post-quantum algorithms are typically 5–10 times slower and yield larger signatures than their classical elliptic curve counterparts. However, he expressed optimism that hardware manufacturers—prompted by NIST’s finalized standards—will incorporate specialized circuitry to speed up these new cryptographic techniques.

“We had to wait for NIST to say, ‘Yo dawg, we have standards now,’ […] because now that they’re here, hardware manufacturers will start building custom capabilities to speed [post-quantum signature schemes] up,” Hoskinson remarked.

He also clarified that no algorithm remains secure forever in the face of continuous advances in computing. This dynamic “cat and mouse” reality is common in cryptography: “Quantum computers are just another bomb, and the Enigma machine is the classical crypto […] It’s an eternal journey and they’re never going to stop.”

According to Hoskinson, the timeframe for Cardano’s transition will likely span several years:

• 2025–2026: Establish a formal research agenda and define Cardano’s quantum security model.
• Mid-Term (2–3 years): Build out a post-quantum proof chain (e.g., via Mithril) to audit and checkpoint the main chain.
• Long-Term (3+ years): Merge the two chains, adopt post-quantum VRFs and signature schemes throughout, and possibly revamp the ledger model.

Concluding his remarks, Hoskinson emphasized the need for collaboration both within and beyond the Cardano ecosystem. He expects discussions to take place at Intersect (the Cardano governance entity), the Technical Steering Committee (TSC), and with leading cryptographers at institutions like Stanford, Carnegie Mellon, and the University of Edinburgh.

“Cardano is not caught with its pants down […] We have some of the best cryptographers in the world working at IO […] It’s a fundamental thing, and every protocol has to be systematically checked,” the Cardano founder concluded.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.797.

Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could emerge within three to five years, marking a transformative moment in AI evolution.

In a Feb. 19 post on X, Hoskinson said:

“I’d say we are 3-5 years away from AGI.”

AGI represents a significant leap in AI evolution. Unlike current models, AGI would possess human-like intelligence, allowing it to learn and perform tasks without specific programming. This breakthrough could redefine industries and everyday life.

Hoskinson’s statement comes as tech companies race to build stronger AI models. Over the past years, industry leaders have poured billions into research and development of more powerful AI systems that could reshape industries.

Considering this, Hoskinson believes this rapid progress is a sign that AGI is approaching. He pointed to upcoming advancements in AI, such as Grok 3, Llama 4, Claude’s next version, and OpenAI’s GPT-4.5 and GPT-5, as evidence of this accelerating trend.

He emphasized that these releases would significantly expand AI’s capabilities and real-world applications.

Hoskinson said:

“Grok 3 is coming out tonight. Soon Llama 4, Claude’s next release, and Open AI GPT-4.5 and 5. All of these are massive leaps forward in AI and will dramatically improve the use and utility of AI for practical applications.”

Is AGI near?

The Cardano founder is not alone in his views on AGI. Several industry experts have pointed out that AI development is accelerating thanks to breakthroughs like DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model.

Venture capitalist Nic Carter recently suggested that DeepSeek has advanced AGI’s arrival by five years.

Moreover, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman has also expressed confidence in AGI’s imminent arrival. Earlier this year, he stated that his team understands the path to achieving it and predicted that AGI-driven agents could start appearing in workplaces by late 2025.

More recently, Altman hinted that GPT-4.5 could offer a “feel the AGI” experience, suggesting a significant leap in AI capabilities.

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