Analysts are increasingly calling for the start of altseason as Ethereum posts massive gains and a wave of altcoins surges across the market. Over the past days, bullish momentum has pushed many digital assets higher, with price structures showing clear signs of strength. For many traders, this is the moment they’ve been waiting for—the long-anticipated shift where altcoins outperform Bitcoin and deliver outsized returns.

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Ethereum’s recent breakout above key resistance levels has added fuel to the narrative, with large-cap and mid-cap altcoins following in its footsteps. The market’s renewed optimism has sparked speculation that the altseason cycle, where capital rotates from Bitcoin into the broader altcoin market, may already be underway.

However, not all experts are convinced. Some point to Bitcoin’s continued dominance and the fact that most altcoins remain well below their all-time highs as reasons for caution. Historical altseasons have typically seen aggressive outperformance across the board, something the market has yet to fully confirm.

Altseason Still Waiting For Its True Breakout

According to top analyst Darkfost, the much-anticipated altseason hasn’t truly begun. By examining a comparative chart of Bitcoin, large caps (top 20), and mid/small caps, Darkfost notes that the current cycle is showing the weakest altcoin performance so far. While altcoins have made notable moves in recent weeks, their gains still pale in comparison to Bitcoin’s dominant run.

The last instance that resembled a genuine altseason occurred in early 2024, when altcoins—particularly mid- and small-cap projects—outpaced Bitcoin over a short but intense period. That surge marked a clear capital rotation away from BTC into the broader market, delivering outsized returns for altcoin holders. However, the present market conditions suggest that kind of broad-based outperformance has yet to materialize.

Even though Ethereum has broken above multi-year highs and several altcoins are posting impressive gains, the rally appears selective rather than widespread. Large caps are recovering steadily, but mid- and small-cap coins—often the hallmark of an explosive altseason—are still lagging. This disparity suggests that institutional and retail capital remains concentrated in more established assets.

For a confirmed altseason, analysts will be watching for a sustained breakout in mid- and small-cap performance relative to BTC. Until that shift occurs, the current market may be better described as a strong altcoin rally within Bitcoin’s dominant phase rather than the start of a full-scale altseason.

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Altcoin Market Nears Key Resistance

The Total Crypto Market Cap excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) is showing strong bullish momentum, currently sitting at $1.57 trillion after a sharp 13.21% weekly surge. This rally brings the market close to retesting its 2025 highs around the $1.6 trillion level, a critical resistance zone that has capped altcoin gains in previous attempts.

The chart reveals that the market has been in a sustained uptrend since early 2024, with price action consistently holding above the 50-week moving average (blue line) and maintaining bullish structure. Both the 100-week (green) and 200-week (red) moving averages are trending higher, reinforcing long-term support and signaling healthy market conditions.

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If the breakout occurs, TOTAL2 could target the previous all-time high zone near $1.75–$1.8 trillion, marking a potential acceleration in capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins. Conversely, failure to clear this resistance could lead to a short-term pullback toward $1.4 trillion support, which aligns with the 50-week MA. The coming weeks will be crucial for determining whether altseason truly ignites.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Altcoin traders can hardly contain themselves as the long-awaited breakout appears to have begun. ETH posted gains of over 20% the last seven days and smaller cap coins like SOL, DOGE, and BNB are close behind, with Chainlink’s LINK token up 30% in the same timeframe. Does this mean alt season finally here?

A painful bull market for altcoin traders

2025 has been a stellar year for Bitcoin, seeing the number-one crypto climb steadily higher, marking a fresh all-time high of ~$122,838 on July 14, fueled by rising institutional demand and a favorable regulatory climate stateside.

The same cannot be said of altcoins, which have languished far from their peak levels. Ethereum’s lackluster performance, in particular, caused divisions within its community, leading many to question whether the divergence between technology and price was an existential issue.

Just as ETH price was beginning to break out and see sustained momentum, renowned trader and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes rattled ETH holders, selling 2,373 coins from his stash and forecasting near-term headwinds for the number-one alt, which, he believed, would test the $3,000 mark based on a weaker-than-expected jobs report and a short-term slowdown in global liquidity.

Those who continued to HODL their ETH are feeling euphoric today as ETH price has surged more than 50% in a month, with some prediction platforms forecasting price targets over $60,000. Even Hayes has taken to crypto Twitter this morning to admit the folly of his decision, tagging Tommy Lee’s Fundstrat, now the largest holder of ETH, with the words:

“Had to buy it all back, do you forgive me? I pinky swear, I’ll never take profit again.”

Is alt season finally here?

With Hayes back on board, BTC and crypto allowed in 401ks, and Ethereum bulls from Buterin to Bankless, finally believing in the strength of this latest rally, does this mean that the long-awaited alt season is finally here?

It certainly looks that way as smaller-cap coins begin to pump across the board. Before you get over your skis, however, take note: this year’s alt season may differ from previous cycles. As prominent day trader and LINK ambassador Ito Shimotsuma, points out:

“Each #Altseason is smaller than the previous ones. And this is why I tell you to focus more on DYOR. In 2017, any random ICO pumped 100x. In 2021, any VC backed alt pumped 50x-100x. This time, very selective alts will outperform. Look for those alts with strong narrative and revenue sharing.”

Another well-known altcoin trader, Miles Deutscher, similarly exercises more caution, confirming that, in his opinion, a mini alt season is finally happening, but watch out for the rotation back into BTC between the $120-140K mark.

Into the Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen is notably less bullish on alts, warning:

“This is not alt season.

This is ETH season

Let’s not confuse the two”

Is Bitcoin’s rally finally over?

With Ethereum and alts pumping, Bitcoin is currently being outperformed, and Bitcoin dominance has dropped to 59.2% at the time of writing after months of holding steady over 60%.

According to Bitcoin macro strategy analyst ecoinometrics, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq is behind this recent stall.

“Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq helps explain recent price action.

When stocks dropped sharply late last week, Bitcoin followed. That’s what you expect when correlations are elevated.

Now that the Nasdaq is resuming its uptrend, Bitcoin is moving with it again.”

All eyes will be on the broader macro picture moving into next week to see what Bitcoin’s next move will be, and how long this alt season may last.

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