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Bitcoin is up 9% since last Sunday, showing renewed strength as it approaches key resistance levels. After weeks of choppy price action and uncertainty, momentum is building across the crypto market. Traders and analysts alike are closely watching Bitcoin’s next move, with many calling for a potential breakout above the all-time high. With bullish sentiment rising and liquidity returning to risk assets, a decisive move could be imminent.

Supporting this outlook is a key on-chain signal highlighted by top analyst Darkfost. According to his insights, the short-term holder (STH) realized price ratio recently dropped below 0.995—a level that historically signals STHs are capitulating and selling at a loss. This behavior typically emerges during local bottoms, often presenting high-reward opportunities for long-term investors. It’s these moments of weakness that frequently precede strong recoveries and upward trends.

As Bitcoin pushes higher, the broader market remains optimistic that a confirmed breakout could shift momentum across the altcoin sector as well. For now, the focus remains on whether BTC can sustain current gains and break through resistance decisively. With strong fundamentals, growing institutional interest, and supportive on-chain data, Bitcoin’s next major move may be just around the corner.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Test As Market Awaits Next Move

Bitcoin is once again at a crucial juncture, hovering between its all-time high of $112,000 and key support at $105,000. Bulls are working to break above resistance and spark the next leg higher, while bears aim to drag the price below support and shift momentum in their favor. This standoff has created a volatile and indecisive environment, with price swinging between these levels for days. So far, neither side has been able to establish dominance, leaving traders on edge as the next major move begins to take shape.

Adding to the broader market optimism is the US stock market, which has just reached a new all-time high. Many analysts see this as a leading indicator for crypto, suggesting that Bitcoin and altcoins could be next in line to follow the rally. Liquidity conditions are improving, and risk appetite is returning, setting the stage for a potential breakout if Bitcoin can overcome resistance.

Darkfost recently shared a key on-chain signal supporting this outlook. According to his analysis, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has dropped below 0.995. Historically, this level indicates that short-term holders are capitulating and selling at a loss—a behavior often seen at local bottoms. When STHs exit in fear, it tends to clear the way for stronger hands to accumulate, laying the groundwork for the next leg up.

With bullish macro signals and on-chain metrics aligning, Bitcoin’s current range could soon give way to a major move. Whether that breakout happens above $112K—or a breakdown below $105K—will determine the tone of the next chapter in this market cycle. For now, all eyes remain on Bitcoin.

BTC Price Action: Testing Key Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading at $107,321, consolidating just below the critical $109,300 resistance level. This zone has acted as a ceiling for over a month, with multiple failed attempts to break above. The latest recovery from the $103,600 support has been strong, with BTC reclaiming all key moving averages—50 SMA ($105,774), 100 SMA ($105,866), and staying well above the 200 SMA ($97,046)—showing a shift in short-term momentum toward the bulls.

The 12-hour chart displays a clear pattern of higher lows, indicating that buyers are stepping in with increasing confidence. However, the lack of volume during this latest push suggests hesitation, as traders await a confirmed breakout before fully committing. For Bitcoin to gain significant upside traction, it must close multiple candles above $109,300, turning resistance into support.

If bulls fail to break above resistance soon, the $105,000–$103,600 zone becomes the critical area to hold. A breakdown below this range could open the door for a deeper retracement toward the 200 SMA around $97,000. Until then, BTC remains in a neutral-to-bullish posture, with the market watching closely for a decisive move that could shape the next leg of this cycle.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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An analyst who accurately called the 2022 crypto collapse is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) may need to hold a key support level to avoid a severe collapse.

Pseudonymous analyst Capo tells his 954,800 followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin may decline more than 37% of its current value if it loses $92,000 as support.

“After a strong bounce from April’s low at $75,000, BTC has now reached the $92,000-$98,000 target area I previously marked on the chart. To keep it simple:

• Above $92,000-$93,000: bullish, but strong resistance at $96,000-$98,000.
• Below $92,000: bearish.

In my opinion, we’re seeing low timeframe distribution at these levels. Still, while it lasts, altcoins could keep pumping. I’ll start taking profits soon.”

Looking at his chart, the analyst suggests Bitcoin could plummet to $60,000 if it fails to hold $92,000 as support.

Bitcoin is trading for $96,608 at time of writing, up 2.6% in the last 24 hours.

Next up, the analyst tells his 125,860 subscribers on his Telegram channel that he is remaining bullish on the graphics processing unit (GPU) rendering network altcoin Render (RENDER).

“RENDER update (before and after). 60% up from entry. $4.25 level reclaimed. Looking good to reach the main target.”

Looking at his chart, the analyst suggests Render will next hit $6.58.

Render is trading for $4.65 at time of writing, up 4.7% on the day.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Featured Image: Shutterstock/WhiteBarbie/kryzhov

A widely followed crypto analyst is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk of a sudden collapse.

In a new post on the instant messaging app Telegram, pseudonymous crypto strategist Crypto Capo tells his 121,953 subscribers that Bitcoin may collapse by more than 34% of its current value.

However, the analyst predicts that the flagship crypto asset will first head higher before a severe correction.

“Shorting here makes no sense at all. I’ll be looking at the $94,000-$95,000 zone for potential shorts, but for now, the smart move is staying net long.”

Looking at his chart, the trader says Bitcoin may plummet to $60,000 after tapping $98,000 as a local high.

Bitcoin is trading for $91,690 at time of writing, up 5.1% in the last 24 hours.

Next up, the analyst says he is leaning near-term bullish on Ethena (ENA), a synthetic dollar protocol built on Ethereum (ETH).

“I consider ENA a mid-term investment. That’s why I’m just holding it until August-September (subject to change/ adaptation). We can see how it has formed a massive range. Bearish trend is very oversold here, so a bounce to $0.50-$0.55 keeps making sense. After that, we could see the last capitulation event I’ve been talking about previously. If that happens, I will buy more. If not, just hold.”

ENA is trading for $0.30 at time of writing, up 6% in the last 24 hours.

Lastly, the analyst says the layer-1 asset Toncoin (TON) may rally and break through resistance at $4.58 before plummeting to around $2.10.

“Very clean setup, matching with the rest of the market.”

TON is trading for $3 at time of writing, up 2.9% on the day.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

An analyst who accurately called the 2022 crypto meltdown is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) are likely to print new lows this year.

Starting with Bitcoin, pseudonymous trader Capo tells his 121,564 subscribers on the instant messaging platform Telegram that he sees BTC initially rallying to as high as $100,000 to set a bull trap.

A bull trap is a false signal, luring traders into thinking that an asset is bullish, but instead, the price abruptly reverses and drops.

According to Capo, the rally will set the stage for BTC to witness a massive capitulation event en route to his downside target of around $63,000.

“BTC plan.”

Capo also notes that he thinks the bull trap idea is still valid, even though BTC has fallen below its immediate support.

“BTC has broken below $84,000, which isn’t great for the short-term bullish scenario. However, this still looks like a bear trap to me. Based on indicators and the confluence with altcoins, most of which are holding higher lows above high time frame support, I remain bullish.

That said, I’d really like to see a strong reclaim of $84,000 (ideally $85,000) soon to confirm strength.” 

A bear trap deceives traders into thinking that an asset will head to lower levels, but then the price reverses to the upside.

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $82,936.

Turning to Solana, Capo predicts that SOL will also spark a strong leg up before collapsing to his downside target of $100.

“SOL looking good for a bullish move towards $180-$200.”

At time of writing, SOL is worth $125.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: DALLE3

Ethereum (ETH) has likely reached a bottom based on several on-chain metrics, according to crypto analytics firm Glassnode.

Glassnode takes a look at a cost basis distribution (CBD) heatmap, which shows how many ETH positions break even at each price level and can often be used to pinpoint support and resistance zones.

The firm says the metric is currently suggesting ETH has strong support at around the $1,886 level.

“Ethereum’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) shows rising supply at $1,886, increasing from 1.6 million to 1.9 million ETH. This suggests a potential short-term price floor as investors accumulate at these levels, reinforcing support.”

Glassnode says the $1,886 price level corresponds with its “Capitulation Metric” for ETH, which integrates CBD and data on realized loss. According to the firm’s chart, spikes in the Capitulation Metric often precede ETH rallies.

Glassnode also reports a significant jump in the supply of stablecoins, which is often viewed as bullish for crypto due to the new potential liquidity they bring to markets.

“Since Jan 1st, the aggregate stablecoin supply has increased by $20.17 billion (+10.9%), now reaching more than $205 billion.

For comparison, the December peak clocked in at $187 billion but the supply actually contracted in the last two weeks of 2024 and dropped to $185 billion by January 2025.”

At time of writing, ETH is trading at $1,890.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: DALLE3

The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has broken down which Bitcoin investor cohorts sold at the biggest loss during the latest price crash.

Recent Bitcoin Buyers Have Combined Realized $2.16 Billion In Loss Recently

In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed what the capitulation event triggered by the Bitcoin price crash has been like. The indicator of relevance here is the “Realized Loss,” which measures the total amount of loss that the investors as a whole are ‘realizing’ through their transactions.

The metric works by going through the transfer history of each coin being sold on the network to see what price it was moved at prior to this. If this previous value for any coin was more than the price at which it’s being sold now, then the token’s sale could be assumed to be leading to loss realization.

The Realized Loss adds up the difference between the two prices for all such tokens to calculate the total for the network. Another metric known as the Realized Profit keeps track of the coins of the opposite type.

Generally, any sudden drop in the BTC price throws the investors into a panic and some loss-taking tends to occur, especially from the recent buyers, who don’t tend to be too resolute. The latest crash has been no exception to this. “Between Feb 25-27, over $2.16B in realized losses came from the most recent market entrants,” notes the analytics firm.

Below is the chart posted by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss for the various BTC investor cohorts over the past month.

Looks like just a few groups have made up for the vast majority of the total market loss | Source: Glassnode on X

As is visible in the above graph, the older BTC cohorts have hardly participated in any loss-taking recently. This makes sense, as even after the crash, BTC is trading at higher prices than it was a few months ago, so those who have been holding for a long time would still be above water.

Out of the younger groups who have indeed sold at large losses, the numbers look like this: $322 million for 24 hours, $927 million for 1 day to 1 week, $678 million for 1 week to 1 month, and $257 million for 1 month to 3 months.

The cohort that stands out among these is the 1 day to 1 week one, which made up for more than 42% of the capitulation event. Thus, it would appear that the buyers who just got in within the past week ended up dumping the hardest.

As for how the latest selloff compares historically, here is a wider view of the Realized Loss chart:

The value of the metric appears to have spiked recently | Source: Glassnode on X

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,200, down almost 12% in the past week.

The price of the coin has plunged during the last few days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes thinks Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term price outlook will be decided by US politics.

The BitMEX founder says on the social media platform X that it’s currently time to “chill out, retrace and wait.”

“If Trump can’t pass his budget which spends more and hikes debt ceiling, resume capitulation to levels pre the election day victory: $75,000 to $70,000. This is test of how strong Trump’s hold is on the Republican party.”

Hayes also suggests that a lot of the hedge funds that bought BlackRock’s iShares (IBIT) spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could sell soon if BTC’s price keeps dropping.

“Bitcoin goblin town incoming:
Lots of IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short-term US treasuries.

If that basis drops as BTC falls, then these funds will sell IBIT and buy back CME futures.

These funds are in profit, and given basis is close to UST yields they will unwind during US hours and realize their profit. $70,000 I see you mofo!”

BTC is trading at $84,498 at time of writing. The top-ranked crypto asset by market cap is down more than 4% in the past 24 hours.

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Generated Image: Midjourney

Ethereum’s price action in the past seven days has led to the creation of a capitulation candle that might send it on another surge within the next eight to twelve weeks. This capitulation candle caught the attention of crypto analyst Ted Pillows, who noted an interesting repeating capitulation pattern for Ethereum. 

According to technical analysis by Ted Pillows, Ethereum has printed a capitulation candle in early 2025, just as it did in the first quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2023.

Capitulation Candles And Ethereum Historical Patterns

TedPillows’ analysis highlights that the Ethereum price has undergone three major capitulation events in the past two years, all of which led to substantial price rebounds. Particularly, these capitulations have taken place in the weekly candlestick timeframe, where the Ethereum price witnessed intense selling pressure throughout the week. However, historical price playout shows that these capitulations have often marked the bottom before a massive price rally. 

Related Reading

The first of such capitulations occurred in Q1 2024 and eventually led to a 100% rally over the next three months, with the Ethereum price reaching $3,950. The second capitulation took place in Q3 2024, leading to a similar upswing. With Ethereum now experiencing another capitulation moment in early 2025, the analyst suggests that the pattern is set to repeat. He believes that Ethereum is once again forming a market bottom, setting the stage for an aggressive upward move.

Ethereum’s 100% Price Surge And Potential Peak

If Ethereum follows its previous trajectory, the next eight to twelve weeks could bring a significant price increase, even as the leading altcoin currently struggles around $2,700. A 90%-100% pump after the recent capitulation would push the Ethereum price past key resistance levels and above its current all-time high. 

Related Reading

TedPillows’ analysis suggests that Ethereum’s ultimate price target following this capitulation could reach as high as $8,000. However, it is likely to encounter significant resistance near $3,950, a level that has historically triggered rejections in past capitulation cycles. Should Ethereum struggle to break through this barrier again, a temporary pullback could be on the horizon before any sustained move higher.

Meanwhile, Spot Ethereum ETFs are attracting heavy inflows despite Ethereum’s price downturn. Institutional investors appear to be capitalizing on the dip and increasing their ETH holdings in anticipation of a broader market rebound.

Spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded $513.8 million in inflows in the last six trading days, with BlackRock leading the charge by acquiring $424.1 million worth of ETH. This steady accumulation from institutional holders suggests growing confidence in Ethereum’s long-term potential and could lay the foundation for the projected 100% surge in the next eight to twelve months.

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,725, down by 4% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com