The cryptocurrency market recovered quite well on Sept. 11, pushing new boundaries of the bearish market further and potentially making even more progress than anticipated. The surge in RLUSD volume could suggest more careful positioning, though. In our most recent market prediction, we broke down how bulls started coming back.

RLUSDT volume spike

Around $200 million have moved through Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, in the past day, marking a huge spike in trading volume. This spike is garnering attention throughout the cryptocurrency market, for a token that normally keeps a low-key, stable profile as a USD-pegged stablecoin.

There could be a number of causes for this kind of movement. In order to protect themselves from the volatility of more risky assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, institutional players may be moving their money into RLUSD. Stablecoins are probably being used as a safe haven by some traders due to recent volatility in altcoins and significant inflows into exchanges.

• The volume might indicate early activity from payment corridors opening up behind the scenes, given Ripple’s continuous push for adoption in cross-border payments and settlements. The main lesson learned from the spike is that RLUSD remains steady, bolstering trust in its peg mechanism.

• If the volume rise continues, it may signal the start of a larger uptake of Ripple’s stablecoin on payment and trading platforms. Investors should monitor whether the higher demand results in deeper liquidity across exchanges in the near future, as this would make the RLUSD a more dependable trading pair.

In general, speculation is less important than the overall positioning of the cryptocurrency market when it comes to RLUSD’s $200 million volume surge. In a way, it draws attention to the rising need for stability on an unpredictable market and suggests that Ripple’s stablecoin might become more significant in future global liquidity flows.

How good can DOGE be?

Dogecoin has performed surprisingly well, breaking through the $0.24 mark, which few had predicted given its slow performance in recent months. DOGE — which was once thought to be a meme-driven asset vulnerable to hype cycles — is now exhibiting resilience, defying general market uncertainty and proving its capacity to surprise both ardent supporters and doubters. 

The 100-day and 200-day EMAs of Dogecoin have been a solid base for buyers, and the cryptocurrency has continuously respected important support zones in the $0.21-$0.22 range in recent weeks. With bulls intervening at pivotal points, the recovery from these levels and the break above short-term moving averages suggest that momentum is improving. 

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Additionally, there has been a slight increase in trading volume, which could indicate that fresh market interest is emerging. The RSI, which is close to 59, indicates that bullish pressure is increasing without being overbought. This allows for more upside before reaching harsh circumstances.

If DOGE stays above $0.24, the next logical resistance is located between $0.27 and $0.28, where earlier rallies this summer were capped. A run toward $0.30, which would represent a major psychological milestone, might be possible if that zone is successfully broken. The fact that this rally coincides with a decline in the enthusiasm surrounding meme coins is what makes it so intriguing. 

It appears that technical strength and accumulation rather than speculative mania were the driving forces behind DOGE’s move. Dogecoin may start to establish a reputation as a reliable mid-cap cryptocurrency with steady investor support if this trend keeps up. In summary, Dogecoin has resurfaced as a contender in the current market cycle after its unexpected breakout above $0.24 has dispelled bearish expectations.

Ethereum too quiet

With price action settling in the $4,300 range and volatility at all-time lows, Ethereum is exhibiting an unusual calm. The second-largest cryptocurrency believes that this quiet time is misleading and could be a risky prelude to a storm.

With tight candles and little volume, ETH has been trading sideways on the charts for more than a week. The market seems to be losing liquidity, which suggests that traders are holding off until something clear happens. In the past, these periods of inaction frequently came before violent outbursts.

Ethereum is holding at high levels without either buyers or sellers controlling the market, which is more concerning than just the lack of movement. This implies that it might release a surge strong enough to destroy everything in its path when momentum eventually returns.

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The thesis is supported by technical indicators. There is still plenty of opportunity for growth as the RSI is neutral but balanced at 51. Ethereum, meanwhile, is still trading above its 50-day EMA, indicating that the bullish structure is still in place even in the absence of any immediate action.

Failure to hold current levels could result in a retest of $4,100 or even $3,800, while a clean breakout above $4,500 could pave the way to the eagerly anticipated $5,000 mark. Because there is less liquidity, there is a greater chance that a sudden surge in buying pressure will lead to a series of short liquidations, which would send ETH skyrocketing.

On the other hand, if bears take advantage of the situation, the same lack of liquidity may accelerate a sharp decline. Although Ethereum’s silence is unsettling, it also prepares the market for the next pivotal action.

The storm has the potential to propel ETH to new heights with $5,000 as the main target if bulls make a strong comeback. The calm should be interpreted as a warning rather than a sign of safety until that time.

The general state of the market is cautiously positive. With the comeback of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other grands, smaller assets are gaining more traction and might show us long-awaited recoveries. Unfortunately, if stablecoin volumes keep on growing, it would be a sign of a bearish shift.

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

BTC is pinned near $111,000 with volatility compressed to multi-month lows, the kind of calm that tends to precede decisive moves. Traders know what could break the lull: September’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s rate decision a week later.

Prediction markets are leaning heavily toward easing. Polymarket bettors are assigning an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 17, leaving only slim odds for a deeper move or no change. Beyond that, October expectations are fractured, with nearly even probabilities for another cut or a pause. That divergence explains why volatility, though absent now, is unlikely to stay that way.

“Markets often look calm just before they move. Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in months, and volatility across crypto has compressed to multi-month lows,” said Gracie Lin, OKX Singapore CEO. “With U.S. inflation data like Core CPI out on Sept. 11 and the Fed’s much-anticipated rate decision just ahead, this quiet period is setting the stage for the next decisive move. Whether the catalyst is an upside inflation surprise or a dovish signal from the Fed, what’s clear is that the absence of volatility is rarely permanent in digital assets; history shows the market will find its next direction soon enough.”

If a cut pulls money-market returns lower, the opportunity cost of sitting in cash rises, which is the pivot market maker Enflux says could send flows toward crypto.

“The real debate now is not if cuts come, but whether liquidity deployment shifts into BTC, ETH, and even riskier assets,” the firm told CoinDesk.

In other words, the Fed’s cut may grab headlines, but the real trade is whether sidelined cash rotates into digital assets — a shift that could fuel the return of volatility.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin has dipped slightly intraday, trading between approximately $110,812 and $113,237, reflecting short-term volatility amid shifting investor sentiment and broader crypto market dynamics.

ETH: ETH is modestly up intraday, with a range between roughly $4,279 and $4,379, signaling steady demand and some renewed investor interest. Range, however, is limited with modest ETF flows and traders awaiting the Fed’s next move.

Gold: Gold is rallying to record highs, fueled by mounting expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks opened mostly higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.2%, as investors awaited China’s August inflation data showing an expected 0.2% CPI drop and a smaller 2.9% PPI decline.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.27% to 6,512.61, as investors looked past a record payroll revision that cut 911,000 jobs from prior figures.

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Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital opened its Monday note with a blunt assessment: “Implied vols continue to come under pressure, with BTC stuck in a tight range as summer approaches.” In the options house’s telling, the market is drifting into the northern-hemisphere holiday season much as it did a year ago, when one-month at-the-money (ATM) volatility collapsed from 80 vols in March to barely 40 vols by July and spot repeatedly “failed to decisively breach the $70k level.” The difference this year is the new, higher plateau: BTC has sat between $100,000 and $110,000 for most of the past three weeks.

The calm is visible beyond Deribit’s options screens. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility, is hovering just above 40—one of its lowest prints in more than two years. Realised volatility is even quieter, so even one-year lows on implieds still look “optically rich,” QCP argues. That valuation gap has encouraged traders to sell gamma: perpetual open interest has slipped and the favourite hedge-fund basis trade—long spot via the new ETFs, short futures—has unwound, taking what QCP calls “the natural bid for vol” out of the market.

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Flows in the listed options market confirm the malaise. Dealers report that July upside strikes around $130,000 and $140,000 are being rolled out to September “in meaningful size,” effectively pushing bullish timelines further down the curve. Meanwhile, Deribit’s put-skew has flattened as short-dated hedges expire worthless—a dynamic that often precedes a directional move once macro catalysts arrive.

This Week Could Break Bitcoin’s Lull

Those catalysts line up uncomfortably close. On Wednesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish May consumer-price data. April’s headline CPI rose a modest 0.2% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, while core prices advanced 0.2% on the month and 2.8% on the year.

Economists look for headline CPI to quicken to 0.3% on the month and 2.5% year-on-year, with core CPI seen edging up to 0.3% and 2.9% respectively. Producer prices follow on Thursday: April’s PPI fell 0.5% on the month yet still printed 2.4% year-on-year. The consensus expects May PPI to rebound 0.2%, leaving the annual rate near 2.4%.

Inflation is not the only macro variable in play. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report—139,000 jobs versus a 130,000 consensus—rekindled dollar strength and knocked gold more than one percent lower, but BTC “remained conspicuously unmoved,” QCP noted. The same divergence is visible this morning: US equity futures are slightly softer, spot gold is bid on safe-haven demand, and bitcoin is trading virtually unchanged.

Geopolitics may supply the spark that inflation data has so far failed to ignite. Senior US and Chinese officials meet in London today (Monday) in what both sides are calling a push for a limited trade deal that would dial back export-control threats and myriad retaliatory tariffs.

The talks matter for crypto because tariffs have been feeding directly into the CPI basket and—via global risk sentiment—into bitcoin demand. “A clean break below $100k or above $110k would likely reawaken broader market interest,” QCP wrote, “but we currently see no obvious near-term catalyst to drive such a move.” Trade headlines could change that calculus in a single newsflash.

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Institutional positioning likewise hints at fatigue. US regulatory filings show that large hedge funds trimmed spot-ETF holdings in the first quarter as the lucrative cash-and-carry spread compressed. Net inflows across the 11 US bitcoin ETFs have slowed to a trickle since late May, leaving cumulative additions at roughly $44 billion—unchanged for almost a fortnight, according to Farside data.

For now, the market’s centre of gravity is exactly where QCP says it is: inside the $100,000–$110,000 corridor. Volatility sellers continue to collect premium, and the risk-reward for momentum traders remains poor. Yet with CPI, PPI and high-stakes trade negotiations all landing inside a 72-hour window, the premium that option writers are harvesting could quickly look meagre.

If the inflation data surprise to the upside, a repricing of Fed-cut expectations could turn last week’s equity rally into a risk-off wobble, yanking bitcoin below six figures for the first time since April. Conversely, a benign print combined with even a symbolic easing of tariff rhetoric could flip the narrative to “soft landing, structural bid via ETFs,” reigniting topside optionality into the June quarter-end. In that scenario the rolled-out September $140,000 calls might come alive far sooner than their buyers now expect.

Either way, the clock on bitcoin’s summer doldrums is ticking loudly. “Without a compelling narrative to spark the next leg higher, signs of fatigue are emerging,” QCP warns. The narrative candidates arrive this week; whether they supply ignition or simply more noise will decide whether 2025’s range trade breaks—or cements itself as the dominant theme of another crypto summer.

At press time, BTC traded at $107,919.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In a recent tweet, prominent crypto analyst Crypto Master 786 highlighted a promising setup for SUI, currently trading around $3.61. According to the analyst, the price is sitting comfortably within a key bullish re-accumulation zone, supported by both a Bullish Price Range (BPR) and a significant Order Block (OB). 

This positioning forms a textbook foundation for a potential continuation rally. With the chart aligning toward higher targets, Crypto Master 786 pointed to the 0.5 and 0.25 Fibonacci levels as key areas to watch for the next leg up.

Technical Insights For An Upsurge

Further breaking down his analysis, the analyst delved into several key technical insights that support a bullish outlook for SUI. Firstly, he pointed to a Market Structure Shift (CH) that occurred back in April, describing it as a critical “change of character” that marked the beginning of a bullish reversal. 

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He also applied Smart Money Concepts, noting that both the Order Block and Bullish Price Range zones are currently holding firm. This behavior, he explained, often reflects institutional accumulation, as “smart money” tends to load positions at strategic price levels before a major move unfolds.

Adding to the bullish case, he observed a Fibonacci Confluence, where the projected upward targets align neatly with the 0.5 and 0.25 Fibonacci levels, areas that also coincide with historical supply zones. 

Finally, his Volume Observation revealed that recent pullbacks on low volume are considered healthy retracements rather than bearish exhaustion. Together, these technical factors suggest that SUI may be building momentum for a continuation to the upside.

Why SUI Has Fundamental Strength Too

Crypto Master 786 also went further by highlighting several key fundamental factors that, in his view, could reinforce SUI’s promising technical setup and long-term outlook. At the forefront is SUI’s status as a high-performance Layer 1 blockchain developed by Mysten Labs, with scalability, speed, and low transaction fees that make it highly attractive for developers and users alike.

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He also emphasized SUI’s strong backing from top-tier investors, including names like a16z, Jump Crypto, and Binance Labs, signaling strong institutional confidence in the project’s future potential. Beyond funding, he pointed to the rapid growth of SUI’s developer ecosystem, noting the increasing number of DeFi, gaming, and NFT projects being launched on the network. 

Additionally, the SUI Builder Grant Program is actively fostering innovation, providing support and resources to teams building on the platform. The analyst wrapped up by stating that SUI is positioned for a strong move if it holds the current OB/BPR zone. With smart money signals, aligned technicals, and solid fundamentals, he sees a high-probability swing play with 37% upside potential.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is now at a crucial and uncertain phase, consolidating below the $100K mark and above the $95K demand level, as sentiment across the market remains divided. The short-term price action shows no clear direction, leaving investors uncertain about Bitcoin’s trajectory. Speculation has grown that the bull cycle may have come to an end, fueling fears of a deeper correction.

Compared to the heightened volatility of recent weeks, Bitcoin’s latest price action has been relatively “quiet,” with the price stuck in a narrow range. This lack of movement reflects the market’s current indecision, as bulls struggle to reclaim $100K as support while bears fail to push the price into lower demand zones.

Key data from CryptoQuant reveals that traders on major exchanges have reduced leverage, a sign that market participants are being cautious in the face of uncertainty. This decline in leverage could mean that price volatility remains subdued in the short term.

With Bitcoin hovering at this pivotal zone, the coming days will be critical in determining whether the market resumes its bullish trend or enters a prolonged consolidation phase. Both bulls and bears will need to act decisively to break this current stalemate and define Bitcoin’s next major move.

Bitcoin Traders Remain Calm Amid Uncertainty

Bitcoin traders are scaling back their risks as market uncertainty increases, with no clear short-term direction for the price. After weeks of volatility, the current price action is stuck in a narrow range between key demand and resistance levels. Analysts closely monitor Bitcoin’s movement, awaiting confirmation of a breakout above the $100K supply zone or a breakdown below crucial demand around $95K.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared data from CryptoQuant on X, highlighting that traders on major exchanges have reduced leverage. Adler believes this reduction signals a more cautious approach among market participants, which could translate to a relatively calm weekend in terms of price volatility. This shift in trader behavior reflects the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s next move.

The sentiment remains mixed, with many traders speculating that Bitcoin is gearing up for a significant move in the coming days. While bulls have managed to keep the price above key support levels, bears are keeping it below the psychological $100K mark, creating a deadlock.

As Bitcoin continues to trade sideways, investors are preparing for a potential breakout. The extended calm environment has historically preceded aggressive moves in the market, leaving traders and analysts speculating whether the next trend will confirm the bull cycle’s continuation or signal a deeper correction.

Price Action Details: What To Expect

Bitcoin is trading at $97,500 after several days of sideways price action below the 4-hour 200 exponential moving average (EMA) at $98,700. This EMA has been acting as a strong resistance level, preventing bulls from reclaiming momentum. If Bitcoin is to regain bullish strength, it must push above this critical EMA and, most importantly, reclaim the $100K level in the coming days. A breakout above these levels would signal the start of a potential recovery rally into higher price ranges.

On the other hand, if the current indecision persists and bears manage to push the price lower, Bitcoin could face a breakdown below key support at $94,000. Losing this level would likely result in further downside, with the $89K demand zone emerging as the next critical target. This level has historically served as strong support, and its defense will be essential to maintain Bitcoin’s long-term bullish structure.

As the market consolidates, sentiment remains divided, with bulls struggling to reclaim control and bears unable to trigger a significant correction. The next move will likely determine Bitcoin’s short-term direction, making these key levels vital to watch as traders brace for a potential shift in momentum.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView