This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Major cryptocurrencies are looking bullish, with market leader bitcoin BTC$114,140.02 exhibiting a classic inverse head-and-shoulders breakout that could propel it toward $120,000.

But there’s a catch. The daily chart for the S&P 500 E-Mini futures is displaying a bearish pattern, indicating a potential sell-off that could weigh on the cryptocurrency market and trap bulls on the wrong side of the market.

S&P 500 hits record high with rising wedge

The E-mini futures have risen nearly 5% to a record high of $6,542 since Aug. 1. The slow ascent has taken the shape of a rising wedge pattern identified by converging trendlines connecting July 31 and Aug. 15 highs and lows reached on Aug. 1 and Aug. 22.

The converging trendlines indicate that bullish momentum is waning, increasing the likelihood of a sell-off.

When asked to identify and analyze the pattern on the S&P 500 futures, Google Gemini replied, “When a rising wedge, which is a bearish reversal pattern, appears after an extended rally to record highs, it significantly increases the probability of a sharp downside move. It suggests that buyers are exhausted and that the rally is running on fumes. The pattern indicates that the market is setting up for a major trend reversal rather than a simple pullback.”

Cryptocurrencies are known to closely track Wall Street sentiment, which means that a potential decline in the S&P 500 could weigh on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Inflation eyed

The odds of a breakdown in the S&P 500 could rise sharply if Thursday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) prints hotter than expected. Such a result, combined with the recent labor market weakness, may rekindle fears of stagflation—the worst-case scenario for risk assets—putting additional pressure on equities and cryptocurrencies alike.

The median forecast for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2025 is a 2.9% year-over-year increase (not seasonally adjusted), according to FactSet. If this estimate holds true, it will be the highest annual rise since January 2025, when the CPI reached 3.0% and well above the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, this 2.9% figure would surpass the trailing twelve-month average inflation rate of 2.6%.

More importantly, the median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is 3.1%.

BTC, ETH options are already biased bearish

The 25-delta risk reversals tied to Deribit-lited bitcoin and ether options were negative out to December expiry, according to data source Amberdata. In other words, short and near-dated BTC and ETH puts traded at a premium to calls, reflecting a bias for downside protection.

A put option protects the buyer from a decline in the value of the underlying asset. A call provides an asymmetric bullish exposure. The 25-delta risk reversal involves the simultaneous purchase of a put option and sale of a call, or vice versa.

According to Options Insights’ Founder, Imran Lakha, the put bias in BTC is likely due to institutions placing long-term hedges. Flows have continued to trend lower on the over-the-counter tech platform Paradigm.

“Flows again featured the [ETH] 26 Sep 4k put, lifted up to 73v,” Paradigm noted.

XRP is indecisive, DOGE looks north

While BTC’s inverse head-and-shoulders breakout suggests a strong bullish direction, XRP’s price action appears indecisive.

The payments-focused cryptocurrency remains locked in a descending triangle and continues to trade within the Ichimoku cloud. Together, these indicators suggest a period of consolidation and uncertainty.

A breakout from the triangle might invite stronger buying pressure, potentially leading to a re-test of $3.38, the swing high from Aug. 8. That said, the descending triangle, by itself, is generally considered a bearish pattern. That’s because the downward-sloping trendline connecting lower highs indicates that sellers are progressively getting stronger and could soon penetrate the horizontal support level.

Speaking of DOGE, it has retaken the bullish trendline from June lows, trapping sellers on the wrong side of the market. Additionally, prices have crossed into bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests scope for a test of the July high of 28.76 cents.

However, traders still need to watch out for a potential rising wedge breakdown in S&P 500 futures, as a reversal there could cap gains in DOGE and weigh on its price momentum.

The market dominance of Ethereum should not be forgotten as the market-wide recovery affects SHIB and XRP, which are rallying forward and might see a bullish rally continuation starting from Sept. 10. Despite our previous gloomy market review, the overall state of the industry is becoming healthier.

Don’t forget Ethereum

At a time when many altcoins are still having difficulties, Ethereum (ETH) has once again reminded the market of its dominance and resilience. The fact that ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has recovered well from recent declines and is currently trading at about $4,372 shows that it still has the strength to influence overall market trends.

Following its ascent above the crucial $4,000 support zone, ETH steadied itself within a narrow range without ever displaying signs of weakness. By acting as a dependable floor and deterring bears, the 50-day EMA at $4,168 has offered a solid technical foundation for a recovery. Now that ETH is maintaining a strong hold above this level, traders are paying closer attention to a potential trend reversal that might push the token back toward the $4,600-$4,800 resistance zone.

Ethereum’s ability to hold its ground while Bitcoin consolidates is what makes this most recent move noteworthy. With ETH potentially leading the next bullish wave instead of just following BTC, this decoupling suggests a change in the market’s structure. This view is supported by the RSI, which is currently at 52, indicating that Ethereum has recovered from overbought conditions while still having a lot of room to rise.

Volume has stabilized, indicating steady participation without speculative blow-offs, despite not being as explosive as it was during the rally in July. This stability is crucial because Ethereum has the technical basis to stage another leg higher if inflows of new capital resume.

Ethereum’s recent performance is a reminder of its dominance on the cryptocurrency market. It is evident that the asset is far from depleted when it maintains above $4,000 and defends its moving averages. ETH may be the first significant altcoin to signal a significant market-wide reversal if the current momentum continues, reaffirming its position as the leader in price action and innovation in the digital asset space.

XRP takes its shot

XRP is pushing above $3.00 after recovering from the $2.77 support zone, indicating that it is once again showing signs of strength. This move appears promising at first glance, particularly given that the asset has tested and remained above important short-term moving averages.

However, given the state of the market, investors should exercise caution because what appears to be the beginning of a breakout could still be a dead cat bounce. From July highs around $3.80, the chart shows a distinct descending resistance line, which XRP is currently reapproaching. A stronger bullish case would be confirmed by breaking through, but history demonstrates that such levels frequently serve as a trap for eager buyers.

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A quick retracement and another rejection could result from failing to maintain momentum at this point. The 50-day EMA at $3.07 is a potential immediate resistance level that heightens the caution. It is probable that sellers will reenter the market if XRP does not close significantly above it. A break below the 200-day EMA at $2.53 would turn the structure bearish once more, with the 100-day EMA at $2.78 serving as crucial support.

Momentum indicators lend credence to this cautious perspective. The RSI is at 55, slowly rising but not yet displaying a strong sense of bullishness. The current rally may not have the depth required for a long-lasting trend reversal, as evidenced by the muted volume, in contrast to the explosive rallies earlier this summer.

Even though XRP’s rise above $3.00 is positive, it is still much too soon to rejoice. Before announcing a win, traders should prepare for the possibility of rejection and revocation. The current move runs the risk of being little more than a brief bounce unless XRP can break its descending trendline with significant volume.

Shiba Inu speeds up

Following its breakout from a consolidation pattern, Shiba Inu’s rally is evidently picking up speed. After soaring past the $0.00001287-$0.00001297 resistance cluster created by the short-term moving averages, the token is now trading close to $0.00001307. Bulls now feel more confident, and the technical setup of SHIB has received more attention as a result of this breakout. SHIB appears well-positioned for future gains at its current levels. 

The next significant test is the 200-day EMA at $0.00001386; a strong breakout above it might push the rally further toward the $0.00001500-$0.00001600 region, which was last observed in mid-August. Momentum indicators lend credence to this optimistic outlook: the RSI has increased to 55, indicating increasing buying interest without yet displaying overbought conditions. Additionally, the volume has increased, confirming that this rally has real momentum.

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The longer-term structure has not changed much despite the short-term outlook appearing solid. SHIB is still trading well below the $0.00002000 levels, which marked the end of the summer rally, and the asset is still threatened by the larger downtrend that started following the 2021 highs. Though encouraging, the current breakout does not yet signify a significant change in Shiba Inu’s macro outlook.

The 200 EMA, which frequently serves as a major barrier, is another area where investors should be wary of possible volatility. If Shiba Inu does not make a strong push, there may be a retracement back toward the support level of $0.00001280. There is a strong technical setup for short-term traders to keep an eye on, and Shiba Inu’s bullish rally is accelerating at the current levels.

The current state of the market expresses some hope for bulls as multiple assets are showing signs of accumulation and might provide us with grounds for recovery sooner than anticipated. Risks of a bearish reversal are still there, though.

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argued that the bull run remains in its early stages based on comprehensive economic indicators.

In a Sept. 8 analysis shared via X, Bittel counters widespread “peak cycle” sentiment in crypto markets, challenging late-cycle narratives by examining traditional economic markers.

Peak sentiment

Classic late-cycle economies typically feature extreme manufacturing sentiment with ISM readings around 60, elevated services sentiment, high homebuilder confidence, strong consumer and worker confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth.

Bittel said current data paints a different picture. When scoring inputs from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, and The Conference Board into a composite sentiment measure, US economic sentiment remains “very subdued” and far from euphoric late-cycle extremes.

He stated:

“This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.”

Central bank policy provides additional support for this thesis. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are cutting rates, creating what Bittel describes as “extraordinary” conditions and “a massive tailwind for the business cycle” on a forward-looking basis.

Oil prices reinforce the early-cycle argument, trading nearly 20% below trend and continuing to fall. This represents easing financial conditions rather than the tightening typically associated with late-cycle dynamics.

Historically, oil prices running 50% above trend have signaled recession since the early 1970s.

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Bull cycle in early stages

Temporary Help Services data shows “early-cycle vibes” with rising growth from profoundly negative levels, indicating economic recovery rather than rollover.

According to Bittel, late-cycle periods typically feature positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, reflecting an overheated economy losing steam.

He attributes rising unemployment to the lagging nature of jobs data, calling it “a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.”

Businesses first increase overtime hours and temporary workers before committing to expensive full-time hires with benefits and pensions.

Bittel also frames current conditions as “early-cycle” transitioning to “mid-cycle,” describing the progression as “Macro Spring” (growth up, inflation down), moving toward “Macro Summer” (growth up, inflation up).

He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing crypto market sentiment, which suggests that the bull cycle has peaked. Instead, he assessed that the current economic conditions support continued expansion rather than contraction.

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Expectations surrounding possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September are nearing peak levels, especially among crypto investors. Historically, Fed rate cuts have often meant the start of a bull run since it signals to investors to take more positions in risk assets such as Bitcoin and crypto. Thus, with only two weeks left to the next FOMC meeting, votes are already coming in for what the Fed will do and how the crypto market will react.

Probability Climbs Above 97%

The CME Watch Tool from the CME Group website is now showing the highest probability so far for a Fed rate cut in September. The percentage had fluctuated over the month of August, rising above 92% and then falling back to 75% again as different developments popped up. However, as the market entered the month of September, sentiment has skewed completely toward the positive, and the probabilities have risen drastically.

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Bitcoinist had reported that the probability had fallen to 75% toward the end of August. But now the figure is back again, reaching the highest level so far, ahead of the FOMC announcement. The Fed Watch Tool now reads a 97.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates this September and trigger another bull run.

This figure means that there is now only a 2.4% probability that the Fed would choose to keep rates at the same level as they did the last time. In contrast, there is still a 0% chance that there will be a rate hike this September. In fact, there have not been talks of a Fed rate hike for months now, suggesting that all focus remains on the rate cuts.

How The Crypto Market Could React

Naturally, a Fed rate cut is bullish for both the stock and crypto markets as it allows investors to take on more risks. This triggers a flow of liquidity into the market, driving up prices rapidly, while also increasing the volatility of the market at the same time.

The expectation is that the crypto market could rally off the news, especially as US President Donald Trump has been in support of rate cuts for months now. However, there is also the need to be cautious due to high expectations often leading to dashed hopes.

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In a report, the on-chain data analytics platform Santiment revealed that social conversations with the words “Fed”, “rate”, and “cut” had risen to the highest level in almost one year. This suggests a lot of bullishness already surrounding the FOMC meeting. But periods like these have often marked the top, leading to a possible “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.

If the latter is the case, then it would mean that prices could rise leading up to the FOMC meeting and then crash if the announcement is different from expectations. Thus, it would be wise to be cautious around this period, especially with the expectation of high volatility.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin may be demonstrating a slight rebound from its recent downward trend, which began after it hit a new all-time high, but discussions about a possible cycle top are intensifying within the community. While this discussion is accompanied by speculations about this bull cycle nearing its end, an analyst has highlighted a key metric that shows that the cycle could end sooner than anticipated.

Historic Fractals Flashes Bitcoin Bull Cycle End

After dropping hard, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $112,000 price mark once again, suggesting renewed momentum fueled by bulls. In the meantime, Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of Alphractal, has revealed that BTC’s price is once again drawing parallel to past fractal patterns, which is raising questions about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak.

Although some contend that macroeconomic tailwinds and robust institutional demand might prolong the current bull run, fractal indications signal caution. Tracking long-term market trends, Wedson outlined that the ongoing cycle is extremely close to its end based on past patterns. 

In the X post, Wedson recalled his 2024 prediction where he pointed out that October 2025 could mark the completion of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. Should this forecast play out, it would mark the formal end of this chapter in Bitcoin’s history within the month.

Based on this trend, BTC has only a little over one month left before the bull run stops in this cycle. However, the expert believes there might still be just enough time for Bitcoin to fall to around $100,000 before soaring to over $140,000 in the same time frame.

The cycle may come to an end in October, but what really matters is whether this fractal will remain reliable in light of heavy speculation around the Exchange Traded-Funds (ETFs) and growing institutional demand.

Regardless of the fractal readings, whether the four-year cycle is over and whether Bitcoin will continue to increase indefinitely, or if 2025 marks the final breath before a sharp correction, remains Wedson’s main focus. This notion will be validated with prices potentially dropping below the $50,000 price level in the 2026 bear market.

Musk’s Suggestion Toward The Next Bear Market Phase

Wedson has pointed to the recent suggestion from Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, about US President Donald Trump triggering a bear market in Q4 2025, which is adding to the intrigue. According to the on-chain expert, Musk’s suggestion is not one to dismiss lightly, considering Trump’s position as the second most influential figure in the crypto sector.

Highlighting the importance of this statement, Wedson has drawn attention to the 2021 cycle, where Musk somehow foresaw Bitcoin’s precise peak at $69,000 months ahead of time with a single cryptic post. 

While these bold predictions and trends seem highly likely to occur, the expert warned that they are just theories. He added that nobody might really know what is going to happen next except Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of BTC.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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XRP goes big in New York

The top U.S. exchange, Gemini, is making the most of its XRP product with a new billboard in the heart of the Big Apple.

• “Spend Dollars, Earn XRP.” That is the message behind the exchange’s massive new billboard in the USA’s biggest city.

Founded by the Winklevoss brothers, the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange has really upped its advertising game for its new XRP card, launched earlier this week. As U.Today reported, this helped Gemini briefly overtake its biggest competitor, Coinbase, on Apple’s App Store.

• Success is questionable. Gemini cards received a mixed response from the XRP community.

Some XRP enthusiasts criticized Gemini’s solution for not really bringing anything new to the table. Despite the negativity, a bunch of Ripple executives and CEO Brad Garlinghouse in particular were not against showing off their XRP cards, which were launched in partnership with the enterprise blockchain company.

Ignoring the backlash from the community, the latest ad campaign shows that Gemini is serious about staying competitive in the U.S. crypto exchange market and sees XRP as a valuable asset in its efforts to compete with Coinbase, Kraken and Binance U.S.

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Star investor Ray Dalio reveals why crypto is real alternative to dollar

The hedge fund veteran says the clock is running out on what he calls the “big debt cycle.” Interestingly, cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin in particular — are at the center of attention, just as Satoshi Nakamoto designed it to be in 2008.

The star investor points to crossroads. If banks step back, it will be the natural market forces that push interest rates higher. That could cool inflation. But it would push households and companies into default as debt would become harder to carry.

The flip side is printing more money through quantitative easing, which might keep the system alive but chips away at trust in fiat, and Dalio warns of a loop where rising debt forces even more money creation, eating into the dollar’s credibility as a safe store of wealth.

He still prefers gold but is also open to crypto, recently saying up to 15% of a portfolio could go into Bitcoin or gold for the best risk-return mix. Some may see it as a far cry from his earlier stance, but the sign that hard-capped assets like BTC are moving up the ladder in Dalio’s playbook is evident.

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Dogecoin rockets 617% in liquidation imbalance as DOGE bulls take $7 million hit

Dogecoin, the “meme coin king,” has started September with $8.11 million in liquidations, hitting bulls the hardest as the DOGE price plunges back to 21 cents.

• What happened? A whopping $8.11 million in liquidations were accounted for by Dogecoin in the last 24 hours, with $6.98 million coming from longs, while shorts lost just $1.13 million — a stunning 617% liquidation imbalance.

According to CoinGlass, this DOGE wipeout was part of a wider $371 million flush-out across the entire crypto market. It was the long positions that suffered the most, showing how fragile all the optimism was. In an evident display of how risky leverage can be in historically choppy September conditions, bulls took the biggest hit.

As market analysts point out, the $0.208 zone has been tested five times and is now seen as a critical support level for the coin. On the upside, $0.225 — a price that lines up with the 50-day moving average — stands as the first major resistance. If Dogecoin breaks above that, a stronger recovery might be in the cards. But there’s a chance that if it keeps being rejected, there could be more selling pressure.

• September promises to be busy. Usually, this month is one of the weakest for crypto, but will 2025 be any different for Dogecoin?

There are quite a few checkpoints that might have the answers you are looking for. The first thing to watch is the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Sept. 16-17, which is likely to have a big impact on crypto prices.

With the big picture still looking totally uncertain, it seems like Dogecoin’s next big move might have more to do with how global markets react to the Fed’s message than how much retail investors are feeling it.

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Economist Alex Krüger dismissed concerns about the crypto bull cycle ending, arguing that widespread bearish sentiment creates a contrarian buying opportunity as markets prepare for recovery.

In an Aug. 30 X post, Krüger noted that “most crypto charts now look so broken and bearish that is bullish,” citing significant long liquidations as evidence of capitulation.

The economist positioned bullishly for the coming week after experiencing losses earlier in the trading session.

Krüger observed that the recent market decline primarily affected Bitcoin and Ethereum, while altcoins stopped crashing earlier in the session. He added that such divergence often signals upcoming strength,

He emphasized that optimal buying opportunities emerge “when everybody is panicking, and not when we are all celebrating.”

The economist expects market volatility to persist until the Federal Reserve’s next meeting, noting that a rate cut remains incompletely priced into current valuations. Even with potential downside risks, Krüger expressed “extreme confidence that this is not the end of the cycle.”

No blow-off tops for now

When questioned about the longevity of the cycle without a blow-off top, Krüger explained his “super cycle” thesis. This framework envisions key assets continuing higher with “smaller dips and a lower slope” rather than traditional manic runs followed by major corrections.

Krüger does not anticipate a blow-off top in 2025, citing insufficient conditions for major manic moves except possibly for Solana due to accumulating demand.

Furthermore, he projected that changes in the Federal Reserve’s composition in 2026 could trigger the next major bull market peak.

Contrary to bearish commentators who suggest excessive optimism requires crushing, Krüger assessed the current sentiment as balanced, with both bullish and bearish perspectives fairly represented.

‘Statistical nonsense’

He dismissed September’s bearish seasonality as “statistical nonsense” from pattern-seeking behavior rather than meaningful market conditions. He expects trading to alternate between long and short liquidations until Fed policy decisions establish a clear trend.

While acknowledging that a 25 basis point cut would not surprise markets, he questioned whether it could serve as a catalyst that may trigger the blow-off top that many analysts predict.

Krüger then highlighted options skew data showing puts trading at premiums to calls, indicating fear-driven positioning. This technical setup, combined with liquidation-driven selling pressure, creates conditions favoring contrarian positioning.

The economist’s analysis suggests that the current market weakness represents temporary volatility rather than a structural breakdown, positioning the market for recovery as liquidation waves clear weak hands.

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