Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

BTC is pinned near $111,000 with volatility compressed to multi-month lows, the kind of calm that tends to precede decisive moves. Traders know what could break the lull: September’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s rate decision a week later.

Prediction markets are leaning heavily toward easing. Polymarket bettors are assigning an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 17, leaving only slim odds for a deeper move or no change. Beyond that, October expectations are fractured, with nearly even probabilities for another cut or a pause. That divergence explains why volatility, though absent now, is unlikely to stay that way.

“Markets often look calm just before they move. Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in months, and volatility across crypto has compressed to multi-month lows,” said Gracie Lin, OKX Singapore CEO. “With U.S. inflation data like Core CPI out on Sept. 11 and the Fed’s much-anticipated rate decision just ahead, this quiet period is setting the stage for the next decisive move. Whether the catalyst is an upside inflation surprise or a dovish signal from the Fed, what’s clear is that the absence of volatility is rarely permanent in digital assets; history shows the market will find its next direction soon enough.”

If a cut pulls money-market returns lower, the opportunity cost of sitting in cash rises, which is the pivot market maker Enflux says could send flows toward crypto.

“The real debate now is not if cuts come, but whether liquidity deployment shifts into BTC, ETH, and even riskier assets,” the firm told CoinDesk.

In other words, the Fed’s cut may grab headlines, but the real trade is whether sidelined cash rotates into digital assets — a shift that could fuel the return of volatility.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin has dipped slightly intraday, trading between approximately $110,812 and $113,237, reflecting short-term volatility amid shifting investor sentiment and broader crypto market dynamics.

ETH: ETH is modestly up intraday, with a range between roughly $4,279 and $4,379, signaling steady demand and some renewed investor interest. Range, however, is limited with modest ETF flows and traders awaiting the Fed’s next move.

Gold: Gold is rallying to record highs, fueled by mounting expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks opened mostly higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.2%, as investors awaited China’s August inflation data showing an expected 0.2% CPI drop and a smaller 2.9% PPI decline.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.27% to 6,512.61, as investors looked past a record payroll revision that cut 911,000 jobs from prior figures.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• OpenSea Teases SEA Token With Final Phase of Rewards Amid App Launch (CoinDesk)
• California Man Sentenced in $36.9M Crypto Scam Tied to Infamous Huione Group (CoinDesk)
• Collector Crypt drives $150 million in randomized Pokémon card trades as CARDS token soars (The Block)

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Crypto traders remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s U.S. CPI report, with BTC trading flat above $111,600, and ETH at $4,298. The CD20, a measure of the performance of the largest digital assets, is trading above 4,000, up 1.6%.

The August Nonfarm Payrolls miss, just 22,000 jobs added versus expectations of 75,000, pushed futures higher and dragged 2-year Treasury yields to year-lows as markets priced in 72 bps of cuts this year. Yet crypto remains rangebound, diverging from broader risk sentiment.

Options markets confirm the defensive stance. QCP Capital noted in its recent Asia Market Update that risk reversals are increasingly skewed toward puts, with short-dated implied vols elevated into CPI.

Polymarket data backs this positioning: ETH carries a 70% chance of staying above $4,600 this month but only 13% odds of breaking $5,600. Traders are bracing for turbulence, not chasing upside. SOL is the outlier, with odds of a new all-time high before 2026 rising sharply, signaling improving breadth beneath the surface.

In a note to CoinDesk, market maker Enflux argues that the SEC’s forward-looking rules for token sales and listings, combined with the steady march of institutions like Coinbase into major indices, show how deeply crypto is embedding into the system. This is the “split-screen reality” of 2025: speculation dominates headlines, while adoption rails are being laid in the background.

The legitimacy narrative also played out in real time on Friday. Michael Saylor’s Strategy was left out of the S&P 500 despite meeting all criteria, while Robinhood was unexpectedly included instead, sending its stock up 7% and underscoring that crypto-adjacent firms with diversified business lines may reach blue-chip status faster than pure treasury plays.

WLFI’s turmoil illustrates the speculative side of the split-screen. The protocol froze over 270 wallets, including Justin Sun’s, to “protect users” after phishing-related compromises.

“On one side, speculative narratives like WLFI risk cannibalizing themselves through governance drama,” Enflux wrote in its note. “On the other hand, institutional-grade infrastructure and regulation are solidifying at a pace that suggests the rails for mainstream adoption are being laid faster than most expect.”

Onchain data shows Sun’s transfers came hours after WLFI’s crash, which was instead driven by shorting and dumping across exchanges. Yet the freeze rattled whales and market makers – shocked that the free market of crypto could be broken by protocol governance fiat – with insiders asking: “If they can do it to Sun, who’s next?”.

The takeaway: near-term volatility and governance drama may cap upside, but the deeper story is that crypto’s institutional and regulatory foundations are hardening.

“Structural legitimacy, not speculation, remains the real story of 2025,” Enflux continued.

For traders, that means bracing for CPI noise; for investors, it means the legitimacy story continues to build.

Market Movement:

BTC: Bitcoin is holding steady above $111K, with support from consolidation near key resistance levels and solid on‑chain support zones. Analysts suggest this stability could pave the way for a breakout, though some caution about a possible pullback toward $100K exists

ETH: Ethereum’s price has eased slightly intraday, trading around $4.3K. This movement may reflect broader crypto market dynamics, including relatively subdued demand and positioning around current technical levels.

Gold: Gold has surged to fresh record highs, recently hitting ~$3,636/oz, as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts rise amid weak labor data, a soft U.S. dollar, geopolitical concerns, and continued central bank demand.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to a record high and the Topix gained 0.52% as investors bet a new LDP leader could deliver fresh fiscal stimulus following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks edged higher Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, as investors awaited inflation data to gauge the likelihood of a jumbo Fed rate cut next week.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• Upbit Parent Files ‘GIWA’ Trademarks Amid Rumors of New Blockchain Launch (CoinDesk)
• How Trump Came Around to Crypto and What Crypto Wants in Return (Bloomberg)
• Kalshi’s $875 million in August trading volume, recent funding signal rising competition with Polymarket (The Block)

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin’s price is holding near records, but the chain itself is quiet. Glassnode data shows transaction fees have collapsed back toward decade lows, even as BTC flirts with six figures.

In past cycles, fee spikes tracked bull markets as traders bid for blockspace. This year, the fee curve is flat while price rises, a clear sign that onchain demand is no longer driving the market.

A new report from Galaxy Research shows median daily fees have fallen more than 80% since April 2024, with as much as 15% of daily blocks now clearing at just 1 satoshi per vbyte. Nearly half of recent blocks are not full, signaling weak demand for blockspace and a dormant mempool.

This is a sharp contrast to prior bull cycles, where price rallies translated into congestion and fee spikes.

The data confirms a structural shift: spot ETFs and custodians now hold more than 1.3 million BTC, and coins parked in those wrappers rarely touch the chain again.

At the same time, retail activity that once clogged the Bitcoin blockchain has migrated to Solana, where memecoins and NFTs benefit from cheaper and faster execution. The result, Galaxy notes, is that the bitcoin price is being set by custodial inflows while the network’s onchain demand – once a proxy for price movement – has slowed down.

For miners, this dynamic is particularly punishing. With rewards halved to 3.125 BTC and fees contributing less than 1% of block revenue in July, profitability is under strain. That stress is pushing listed miners to diversify into AI and HPC hosting.

Read more: Bitcoin Mining Faces ‘Incredibly Difficult’ Market as Power Becomes the Real Currency

A report from earlier this year by Rittenhouse Research argues that Galaxy Digital’s move out of mining altogether could be the model for the sector.

This move has been applauded by the equity markets. While BTC is down more than 3% on-year, the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF has gained nearly 22%. Investors are rewarding firms that have leaned into diversification rather than relying on block rewards alone.

Listed miners tell a similar story. Hive, Core Scientific, and TeraWulf all reported Q2 results padded by HPC and AI hosting revenues.

Those with no diversification, like Bitdeer and BitFuFu, remain deeply exposed to electricity costs, equipment depreciation, and a fee market that Galaxy warns in its report is “anything but robust.”

The juxtaposition is telling: Galaxy’s own research warns that the Bitcoin blockchain’s settlement role is stagnating, while Galaxy’s balance sheet is being repositioned for growth in AI data centers.

Onchain data makes the point: without organic demand for blockspace, fees can’t fund security. And if fees stay low, equity markets are painting a clear picture that mining sector’s best future returns may come from AI, not Bitcoin.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin traded at $113,286.95, down 1.79%, after briefly plunging to a six-week low near $110,600, with the broader crypto market facing heavy liquidations and volatility.

ETH: Ether traded flat at $4,779 as Jerome Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks boosted expectations of a September rate cut, with asset managers predicting new highs for bitcoin and an ETH breakout above $5,000 despite risks from treasury adoption and equity volatility.

Gold: Gold closed at $3,371 after Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks boosted September rate-cut odds.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks climbed Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.08%, after Powell signaled potential Fed rate cuts in September during his Jackson Hole speech.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• The Funding: Why raising a crypto VC fund is harder now — even in a bull market (The Block)
• Why Luca Netz Will Be ‘Disappointed’ If Pudgy Penguins Doesn’t IPO Within 2 Years (Decrypt)
• KPMG Says Investor Interest in Digital Assets Will Drive Strong Second Half for Canadian Fintechs (CoinDesk)

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As Hong Kong begins its trading day, ETH is changing hands above $4600, down 3% on-day.

As ETH is up nearly 16% in the last week, and 45% in the last month, this probably isn’t a concern for most traders. After all, the ETH/BTC ratio has broken above its 365-day moving average, a signal that has historically marked extended periods of ETH outperformance, and spot ETF flows are reinforcing the move.

However, the same data shows early warning signs of near-term cooling, as CryptoQuant argued in a recent report.

Daily ETH inflows to exchanges have surpassed Bitcoin’s, suggesting some holders are positioning to take profits. ETH’s MVRV ratio against BTC has risen from 0.4 in May to 0.8, approaching historical overvaluation territory. CryptoQuant warns that in past cycles, such levels have preceded pauses or pullbacks in ETH’s relative strength.

Trading desks echo this view.

In a recent note, France-based FlowDesk reports that while there were $1 billion in single-day ETH ETF inflows on Monday, with broad client buying versus BTC and SOL, there were also increased call overwriting in ETH options at the $7K–$8K strikes for December — a sign some are capping upside expectations.

QCP framed ETH’s rally within a macro backdrop of softer headline CPI in its daily Asia Color telegram update, with strong expectations for a September Fed cut, and geopolitical easing, but flags upcoming Jackson Hole remarks and remaining CPI/NFP prints as potential sentiment pivots.

Market maker Enflux added in comments to CoinDesk that a hotter-than-expected PPI print reminded traders that inflation risks remain uneven, and that ETH’s outsized performance could invite consolidation.

While the structural drivers remain intact, ETF demand, institutional participation, and favorable on-chain signals, the market is entering a phase where stretched positioning and macro event risk could test ETH’s momentum. As CryptoQuant’s data shows, the rally is strong, but so are the early signs of profit-taking.

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin fell over 3% from record highs after hotter U.S. inflation dampened rate cut hopes and the Treasury signaled it will not expand Bitcoin purchases for its strategic reserve.

ETH: ETH is down 3.3% as sell pressure increases, as traders take profit after a record rally.

Gold: Gold fell 0.62% to $3,336.6 as hotter U.S. inflation and strong jobs data boosted the dollar and yields, trimming expectations for a large September Fed rate cut.

Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 opened higher as Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.0% in Q2, beating forecasts on strong exports and capital spending, though analysts warn U.S. tariffs could slow growth in the coming months.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks stalled Thursday as a hotter-than-expected PPI dampened hopes for a large September rate cut. Goldman Sachs warns its models show elevated odds of an S&P 500 drop, citing low volatility and growing tariff risks.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• U.S. Blacklists Crypto Network Behind Ruble-Backed Stablecoin and Shuttered Exchange Garantex (CoinDesk)
• Strategy Pushed ‘Deceptive’ Comparison to Apple and NVIDIA, Wall Street Veteran Says (Decrypt)
• Crypto Casino CEO Charged After Allegedly Gambling Away Investors’ Millions (Decrypt)

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin staged a sharp recovery over the past week, rebounding from a dip below $114,000 to trade near $121,000, in what Glassnode described in a recent report as a shift from “seller exhaustion to a strong rebound near recent ATHs.”

The rally, however, came without a surge in spot market participation.

Glassnode data shows spot trading volumes fell 22% to $5.7 billion, close to their statistical low band, suggesting the rebound has been driven more by positioning shifts than deep conviction buying. The Spot Cumulative Volume Delta flipped 94% toward buy pressure, a sign that aggressive selling has been replaced by renewed demand, but not yet across a broad base of traders.

On the derivatives side, leveraged traders re-engaged aggressively, Glassnode detailed in its report.

Perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta, a measure of the buy-sell pressure in perps, jumped 88%, funding rates remained elevated, and options open interest climbed 6.7% to $42.4 billion. Yet, volatility pricing collapsed by almost a third, indicating a degree of complacency that has historically preceded large market moves.

ETF flows offered some relief, with U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETF outflows halving to $311 million from $686 million the prior week. Even so, ETF trade volume fell 27.7% to $13.7 billion, keeping activity near its low band.

QCP Capital framed the weekend surge, which briefly pushed BTC above $122,000, as a function of thin order books and a broader risk-on shift in global markets.

“Crypto staged an impressive comeback over the weekend during thin, low-liquidity trading hours,” the Singapore-based trading firm wrote, noting that the bounce aligned with a rebound in U.S. equities and growing expectations for a September Fed rate cut.

While on-chain activity improved, active addresses jumped 8.4% to 793,000, and fee volume rose 10%. Glassnode cautioned that elevated profitability levels could quickly turn into selling pressure if sentiment shifts. With 94.1% of supply in profit and the realized profit-to-loss ratio climbing to 1.9, the market may be nearing a point where profit-taking accelerates.

The combination of thin liquidity, bullish derivatives positioning, and macro-driven optimism leaves Bitcoin primed for volatile moves as it approaches all-time highs, with the next test likely coming from Tuesday’s U.S. CPI release.

Polymarket traders lean toward a modest uptick in line with consensus that would likely keep BTC consolidating, with hotter prints posing a short-term headwind by delaying Fed cuts and softer readings offering a potential breakout catalyst if ETF flows and spot activity strengthen.

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $118k as traders pull back and position themselves for the possibility that Tuesday’s CPI report might break BTC’s momentum.

ETH: Ethereum is trading at $4200. Analysts say that ETH’s rally is partially due to increased capacity on-chain and lower DeFi costs.

Gold: Gold slid to $3,355.13 as upbeat risk sentiment and Trump’s pledge to exclude gold from tariffs weighed on safe-haven demand, though losses were cushioned by rising Fed rate cut bets ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high after the U.S.-China trade truce was extended, while investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expected rate cut.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks eased, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and just under its record, as investors await new inflation data .Meanwhile, Citigroup and UBS lifted their year-end S&P 500 targets, citing easing policy risks and solid earnings, with Citi raising its forecast to 6,600 and UBS to 6,100.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin Now Accepts Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana for Spaceflights (Decrypt)
• Rumble Gains on Plans to Acquire Tether-Affiliated Northern Data (CoinDesk)
• Senate Banking Committee Democratic staff slam GOP crypto draft bill as ‘superhighway’ for dodging regulation (The Block)

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As bitcoin

trades near $119,500, having just recently broken through another all-time high of $120,000, digital asset investment products are also breaking records for inflows – but there’s a regional disparity.

According to CoinShares, U.S.-listed funds dominated with $3.74 billion in inflows, while Germany saw $85.7 million in outflows, underscoring a growing divergence in global institutional sentiment.

This robust institutional appetite in the U.S. is exemplified by Vanguard’s evolving stance on crypto investments. Despite once branding bitcoin as an “immature asset class,” the $10 trillion asset manager is now Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR)‘s largest shareholder, indirectly becoming the most significant Bitcoin holder in traditional finance, as Presto Research recently noted in a daily markets update.

Meanwhile, QCP Capital highlights in a recent note that institutional enthusiasm remains notably robust, exemplified by over $2 billion net inflows into spot BTC ETFs last week.

Yet, derivatives markets suggest a more nuanced approach. Leveraged long positions are expanding aggressively, with perpetual funding rates approaching an elevated 30% and open interest surpassing $43 billion, levels unseen since BTC reclaimed $100k in January. Such aggressive positioning raises caution flags, recalling February’s abrupt $2 billion liquidation event.

“Froth is building,” QCP warns.

BTC Continues to Outpace Luxury Watches

Bitcoin

is up 27.87% year-to-date and 13.22% in the past month, easily outperforming the luxury watch market’s modest +4.5% rebound in Q2, according to a recent report co-authored by Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts.

Gains were concentrated in flagship models, Daytona, Nautilus, Royal Oak, while brands like Panerai, Breitling, and IWC underperformed. Inventory for watches under $5,000 remains historically elevated, and dealer turnover in that range continues to lag.

“Price recovery remains narrow and concentrated,” the report notes, driven by “renewed interest from high-end collectors and improved global risk appetite.”

Both BTC and watches, it adds, tend to benefit from “expansionary monetary environments and periods of wealth creation.”

But the speculative capital isn’t flowing evenly. Bitcoin has attracted more of the macro-driven bid, with institutional inflows and 24/7 liquidity making it the preferred high-beta asset.

The pandemic-era correlation between BTC and watches, both beneficiaries of easy money and speculative excess, broke down in late 2023 with the approval of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.

BTC has since matured into a macro-sensitive, institutionally backed asset, while watches have returned to their roots: fashion.

Market Movements:

BTC: Bitcoin briefly approached $123,000 before cooling off, while crypto-related stocks held modest gains and analysts said the market remains far from euphoric, with one projecting BTC’s $2.5 trillion market cap could eventually converge with gold’s $22 trillion.

ETH: ETH surged past $3,079 in early trading on strong volume before retreating in the afternoon to settle near $3,011, forming a textbook breakout-pullback pattern with support holding above the key $3,000 level.

Gold: Gold slipped 0.1% after hitting a three-week high amid renewed tariff threats from President Trump and focus on trade talks and U.S. data, while silver surged to its highest level since September 2011.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Tuesday, with investors brushing off President Trump’s tariff shifts and turning attention to upcoming Chinese economic data, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 remained flat.

S&P 500:RBC Capital Markets raised its 2025 S&P 500 target to 6,250 from 5,730, but unlike Goldman and BofA, it expects little upside from current levels, with the index already above 6,280 as of July 11.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• U.S. Banking Regulators Issue Crypto ‘Safekeeping’ Statement, Not Pushing New Policy (CoinDesk)
• China’s Stablecoin Studies Hint at ‘Tiered’ But Fractured Approach (Decrypt)
• Grayscale Files Confidential Submission for IPO With SEC (CoinDesk)