BreakEven – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sat, 13 Sep 2025 08:16:31 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 BreakEven – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Bitcoin Breaks Above Mid-Term Holder Breakeven – Is A Fresh Rally Brewing? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-breaks-above-mid-term-holder-breakeven-is-a-fresh-rally-brewing/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-breaks-above-mid-term-holder-breakeven-is-a-fresh-rally-brewing/#respond Sat, 13 Sep 2025 08:16:30 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-breaks-above-mid-term-holder-breakeven-is-a-fresh-rally-brewing/

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged from around $108,000 on September 1 to above $115,000 at the time of writing – recording a gain of roughly 4% over the past two weeks. However, fresh on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a fresh rally that could propel it to new all-time highs (ATH).

Bitcoin Rises Above Mid-Term Holders’ Realized Price

According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ShayanMarkets, Bitcoin’s recent rebound from $107,000 to just above $114,000 has lifted the digital asset over the Realized Price of mid-term (3-6 months) holders.

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For the uninitiated, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held by wallets that last moved their coins within the past 3–6 months. It serves as a key pivot level, often acting as support or resistance that reflects sentiment and potential sell pressure from this cohort.

Per analysis by ShayanMarkets, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price currently stands at around $114,000. Now that BTC has surged above this level, the likelihood of an immediate sell-off has reduced significantly. The analyst added:

A firm breakout and hold above this level would confirm renewed confidence from mid-term holders, potentially serving as the launchpad for another bullish leg that could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to hold above $114K risks shifting sentiment back toward caution and opens the path to deeper corrective moves.

A Bump On The Road For BTC

Fellow CryptoQuant contributor Gaah brought attention to short-term holders’ (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), normalized with a 30-day moving average. The contributor noted that after four months of consistently operating above the break-even line, the indicator is now showing that STH are selling their holdings at a loss.

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The STH selling their BTC at a loss indicates a “momentary loss of confidence” on the part of speculators, who are typically more sensitive to changes in price. Although BTC has jumped from $60,000 to as high as $125,000 over the past year, the SOPR STH has recorded descending peaks.

In past cycles, a sharp surge in price was usually accompanied by peaks in the Extreme Greed region, suggesting strong retail participation. However, the current market cycle did not see any such dynamic at play, hinting that the rise in price was likely sustained by institutional investors.

SOPR
Source: CryptoQuant

Gaah added that historically, market tops have only been confirmed when SOPR STH levels reached levels of extreme greed, a development that has not yet occurred in the current rally. As a result, the long-term trend remains firm, and the current realization of losses may just be a temporary healthy pullback.

That said, some analysts caution that Bitcoin may already be very close to hitting its peak for this market cycle. Others predict that BTC may slump in September, before it resumes its bullish trajectory in Q4 2025. 

Still, some analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching as high as $150,000 by Christmas. At press time, BTC trades at $115,050, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

bitcoin
Bitcoin trades at $115,050 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-breaks-above-mid-term-holder-breakeven-is-a-fresh-rally-brewing/feed/ 0 58195 Bitcoin recovers but market still on edge with short-term holders near breakeven https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-recovers-but-market-still-on-edge-with-short-term-holders-near-breakeven/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-recovers-but-market-still-on-edge-with-short-term-holders-near-breakeven/#respond Wed, 07 May 2025 22:45:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-recovers-but-market-still-on-edge-with-short-term-holders-near-breakeven/

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a technically critical zone controlled by short-term holders despite its recovery to nearly $98,000, which has eased financial stress across the network, according to a May 7 report by Glassnode.

The report highlighted recent market behavior pointing to improved capital inflows and investor sentiment. Additionally, it warned that the current price structure remains vulnerable if key support levels fail.

Bitcoin surged to $97,900 last week, marking its highest level over two months. The move temporarily alleviated underwater positions, with more than 3 million BTC returning to a profitable state after its correction to a low of roughly $74,000 in April. 

However, the market remains in a decision phase as it waits to see whether Bitcoin can consolidate above key cost-basis levels such as the 111-day moving average and the Short-Term Holder realized price.

The report noted that the recent rally has pushed Bitcoin’s realized cap to an all-time high of $889 billion, up 2.1% over the past month. Realized cap is a metric that measures cumulative capital inflows based on acquisition price, suggesting that more value is entering the network. 

Concurrently, realized profits have exceeded $1 billion per day, indicating strong demand capable of absorbing profit-taking activity from recent buyers.

According to CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin was trading at $96,844 as of press time, up 2.64% over the past 24 hours.

Short-term holders key as ETF demand recovers

While the number of coins held at a loss has dropped to 1.9 million BTC, recent buyers still represent the bulk of those holdings. Glassnode reported that short-term holders (STHs) concentrate 83% of coins in unrealized loss, many of whom entered the market above $96,000. 

These investors were previously under elevated stress, with unrealized losses breaching alarming levels earlier this year. That stress has since subsided, with the STH unrealized loss metric reverting to neutral territory, suggesting that most of these addresses are closer to breakeven.

This transition has also influenced spending behavior, with STHs increasingly realizing gains rather than losses. According to the report, this shift may mark a pivot point, indicating that the cohort is regaining confidence and selectively de-risking.

Investor activity has also picked up broadly. Combined realized profit and loss volumes have reached $1 billion per day, a level only exceeded during 15% of trading sessions in this cycle. 

The uptick indicates renewed market engagement, but the report cautioned that much of this behavior may still be reactive to short-term price moves rather than driven by long-term conviction.

Institutional interest, which had waned during recent months, appears to be rebounding. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have absorbed over $4.6 billion in inflows across the last two weeks, offsetting the 70,000 BTC in net outflows recorded during the previous drawdown. 

Total assets under management within US ETFs now stand at 1.171 million BTC, just 11,000 BTC short of the all-time high earlier this year. 

According to the report, the recovery in ETF demand is a constructive signal that institutional allocators are starting to rotate capital into Bitcoin again after a period of caution. The inflows coincide with the broader uptick in market liquidity and capital deployment observed on-chain.

Volatility potentially underpriced

Despite the rally and renewed capital movement, volatility expectations in derivatives markets are declining. One-week and one-month at-the-money implied volatility are now at their lowest since July 2024, with longer-dated contracts showing similar compression. 

Implied volatility premiums on contracts expiring in May through March 2026 have all trended downward, with even long-term options pricing in relatively low expectations for price swings.

The report viewed this subdued volatility regime as a potential counter-indicator, especially given the market’s proximity to dense cost-basis clusters between $94,000 and $96,000. The Realized Supply Density metric, which measures the acquisition volume of BTC near the current price, has increased meaningfully. 

This concentration implies that even small price fluctuations could have amplified effects on investor behavior, particularly among those who bought during the December–February consolidation range.

While the recent rally has improved network-wide profitability and market structure, Bitcoin’s position near critical support and resistance levels means further gains are not guaranteed. It will test the current market strength if BTC fails to hold above its short-term cost basis and moving averages.

Bitcoin Market Data

At the time of press 10:29 pm UTC on May. 7, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the price is up 2.46% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $1.92 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $72.38 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›

Crypto Market Summary

At the time of press 10:29 pm UTC on May. 7, 2025, the total crypto market is valued at at $2.99 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $121.48 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 64.45%. Learn more about the crypto market ›

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-recovers-but-market-still-on-edge-with-short-term-holders-near-breakeven/feed/ 0 34968 Bitcoin Faces Critical Resistance At $91,000 As Short-Term Holders Hover At Break-Even https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-faces-critical-resistance-at-91000-as-short-term-holders-hover-at-break-even/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-faces-critical-resistance-at-91000-as-short-term-holders-hover-at-break-even/#respond Sun, 20 Apr 2025 01:04:10 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-faces-critical-resistance-at-91000-as-short-term-holders-hover-at-break-even/ Bitcoin prices gained by only 0.95% in the past week amidst an intense market consolidation. The premier cryptocurrency is struggling to break out of the $85,000-$86,000 price range following an impressive price rally in the second week of April. However, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified the major price resistance for the current Bitcoin uptrend.

Bitcoin STH Realized Price At $91,000 Presents Major Make-Or-Break Moment 

In a recent post on X, Martinez states that Bitcoin faces a key resistance level at the $91,275 following a price rebound in early April. Notably, the asset surged by 17.33% after reaching a price low of $75,000 on April 9. However, BTC has since entered a consolidation following this feat, producing no significant price movement in either direction.

Over the past week, the crypto market leader moved only between $84,000 to $86,000, forming a tight range-bound market. However, amidst these struggles, Martinez states that Bitcoin short-term holders realized the price lies at $91,275, indicating the pivotal resistance to the recent market resurgence lies ahead.

Bitcoin

For context, the short-term holders’ realized price is the average price at which new buyers (i.e, new investors of Bitcoin over the past 155 days) acquired their BTC. It is an important technical indicator used to evaluate short-term market sentiment and behavior.

When a market price is above the STH realized price, it indicates a bullish momentum as recent buyers are in profit and are likely to hold. In this case, the STH realized price serves as a strong support level, with new market entrants often defending their entry zone. 

However, when Bitcoin’s price is below the STH realized price as currently seen in the market, the realized price forms a significant psychological price resistance. This is because many short-term holders may choose to exit once the market breaks even, increasing the selling pressure around that zone.

Therefore, Bitcoin reclaiming $91,275 is essential to validate a sufficient bullish potential to fuel a complete price reversal.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,872, reflecting a price growth of 0.14% in the last day. Meanwhile, the premier cryptocurrency is down by 1.34% on its monthly chart as bearish pressure continues to wane.

While a major market resistance lies at $91,000,  Bitcoin faces an immediate opposition at the $86,000 price zone, breaking past which could spur a sharp price rise to $91,000. However, a price fall below the support at $84,500 could result in a further price slide to $84,000 with the potential to trade as low as $83,300.

Bitcoin

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