Bonds – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Fri, 25 Jul 2025 17:28:51 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.8 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Bonds – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Asia-Pacific Companies and Local Governments Sell $1,500,000,000,000 in Bonds As Investors Flee US Dollar Assets: Report https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-pacific-companies-and-local-governments-sell-1500000000000-in-bonds-as-investors-flee-us-dollar-assets-report/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-pacific-companies-and-local-governments-sell-1500000000000-in-bonds-as-investors-flee-us-dollar-assets-report/#respond Fri, 25 Jul 2025 17:28:50 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-pacific-companies-and-local-governments-sell-1500000000000-in-bonds-as-investors-flee-us-dollar-assets-report/

Companies and non-sovereign issuers in the Asia-Pacific region have been hawking bonds at a record rate as investors look to move away from US dollar assets, according to a new Bloomberg report.

Non-sovereign issuers are non-federal bond issuers like local and regional governments and public agencies.

Bloomberg reports that Asia-Pacific companies and non-sovereign issuers have sold $1.5 trillion in local-currency bonds year-to-date, a record in that time frame. The sales represent a 6% increase.

Daniel Tan, a portfolio manager for global emerging markets at Grasshopper Asset Management, tells Bloomberg the number of bond buyers has surged in the second quarter of the year. 

“We are definitely seeing more buyers of local-currency Asian bonds than in pre-April. There are large inflows from pension and sovereign wealth funds looking to diversify away from US dollar assets.”

US President Donald Trump kicked off his wave of tariffs in April, spurring macroeconomic uncertainty.

Angus Hui, the deputy chief investment officer at the Singapore-based investment firm Fullerton Fund Management, tells Bloomberg that “diversification into broader Asian local currency markets is likely to accelerate.”

The Bloomberg Asia-Pacific Aggregate index, a multi-currency benchmark based on Asia-Pacific investment-grade bonds, has beaten the US-based bond metric, gaining 3.9% year-to-date compared to 3.5%, respectively.

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Metaplanet Issues Fresh $210M Bonds to Evo Fund, ‘All Bitcoin,’ Says CEO https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-issues-fresh-210m-bonds-to-evo-fund-all-bitcoin-says-ceo/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-issues-fresh-210m-bonds-to-evo-fund-all-bitcoin-says-ceo/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 06:23:03 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-issues-fresh-210m-bonds-to-evo-fund-all-bitcoin-says-ceo/

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Often called Japan’s ‘Strategy,’ Metaplanet, on Monday, has issued a fresh $210 million in zero-interest bonds to acquire additional Bitcoin.

The announcement comes following a decision by its board of directors to issue the 18th series of ordinary bonds to Evo Fund. The bonds are set to mature on December 12, 2025, with an option for early redemption.

“The funds raised are scheduled to be allocated toward the purchase of Bitcoin.”

Per Bitcoin Treasuries numbers, Metaplanet sits at a total of 8,888 BTC, following its latest addition of 1,088 more Bitcoin.

The bonds are exclusively subscribed by the Cayman Islands-based investment firm, Evo Fund.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich posted the recent bond issuance on X, stressing, “All Bitcoin.”

The Bitcoin Accumulation Race: Caution Beats Hype

The Tokyo-listed Metaplanet, inspired by Michael Saylor-led Strategy’s Bitcoin path, has now become Japan’s most shorted stock by hedge funds. As reported earlier, Metaplanet’s stock surged more than 4,800% over the past year, after its pivot to Bitcoin investment strategy.

Seamus Rocca, CEO at Xapo Bank, shared his perspective on the rising corporate Bitcoin allocations recently.

In an email to Cryptonews, he said that the increase in corporate treasury allocations to Bitcoin is “significant.” However, “it shouldn’t be about chasing trends or building oversized positions,” Rocca added.

“It’s about allocating what a business can afford to hold over a five-to-ten-year horizon, without being forced to sell into volatility.”

Further, he said that firms like Strategy and Metaplanet “represent high-conviction outliers,” with bold strategies that align with their unique business plans.

“In this space, patience and discipline can be underrated virtues,” he told Cryptonews. “Our view has been, and remains, that Bitcoin deserves serious consideration—but with a disciplined, long-term framework: focus on the asset itself, avoid speculative trading, and size positions responsibly.”

Company Adapts Strategy Amid Yen Depreciation

Metaplanet’s recent announcement to issue $210 million in 0% ordinary bonds comes at a time when Japan is facing economic challenges, characterized by high debt levels and yen depreciation. As a result, the strategy underscores Metaplanet’s commitment to leveraging Bitcoin’s potential for long-term appreciation.

The Japanese Yen kicked off the week on a weaker note. However, the anticipation that the Bank of Japan might push for tighter monetary conditions, along with trade-related uncertainties, lends some support to the safe-haven Japanese Yen.


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Federal Reserve Suffers $1,060,000,000,000 in Unrealized Losses As Central Bank’s Rate Hikes Pressure Bonds https://earlybirdsinvest.com/federal-reserve-suffers-1060000000000-in-unrealized-losses-as-central-banks-rate-hikes-pressure-bonds/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/federal-reserve-suffers-1060000000000-in-unrealized-losses-as-central-banks-rate-hikes-pressure-bonds/#respond Sat, 07 Jun 2025 00:36:32 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/federal-reserve-suffers-1060000000000-in-unrealized-losses-as-central-banks-rate-hikes-pressure-bonds/

The Federal Reserve is now facing a whopping $1.06 trillion in unrealized losses on its balance sheet.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank, which handles the Fed’s bond transactions, just disclosed the losses, linking them to the central bank’s tight monetary stance.

The Fed’s bonds are losing value as the bank maintains higher-for-longer interest rates in a push to fight inflation.

The agency says it will ensure the losses won’t hit its bottom line or cash transfers to the Treasury.

“The unrealized gain or loss position of the SOMA portfolio has no effect on net income or Federal Reserve remittances to the Treasury unless assets are sold and gains or losses are realized.

Unrealized gains and losses have no effect on the conduct of monetary policy.”

The New York Fed also notes the unrealized losses, which are recorded through the end of 2024, were offset slightly as the central bank let bonds mature without reinvesting.

The Fed’s bond portfolio began witnessing significant unrealized losses over the previous two years, clocking $1.08 trillion in 2022 and $948.4 billion in 2023.

The account witnessed unrealized gains of $354 billion in 2020 and $127.9 billion in 2021.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Demand for Bitcoin Outstrips Supply and the Bonds Market Crumbles. Altcoins Like BTC Bull Token to Rally? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/demand-for-bitcoin-outstrips-supply-and-the-bonds-market-crumbles-altcoins-like-btc-bull-token-to-rally/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/demand-for-bitcoin-outstrips-supply-and-the-bonds-market-crumbles-altcoins-like-btc-bull-token-to-rally/#respond Mon, 26 May 2025 13:06:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/demand-for-bitcoin-outstrips-supply-and-the-bonds-market-crumbles-altcoins-like-btc-bull-token-to-rally/

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As demand for Bitcoin outstrips supply, and confidence in bonds is in steep decline, Bitcoin and related coins like BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL) go from strength to strength.

According to the US Debt Clock, the US is looking at a national burden of over $36.8T, which translates to $107,745 per citizen in 2025.

US national debt on US Debt Clock

This, while US consumer confidence is at a 13-year low, falling by 7.9 points in April 2025, based on a report by The Conference Board. 

According to Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board:

‘High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months.’

Making matters worse, overseas investors have started to flee the chaotic US markets and seek refuge in Japan’s equities and long-term bonds. The migration translated to over $56.6B changing markets in April alone. .

The result? Stock market low, bond yields high, Bitcoin price even higher.

Why an Apocalyptic Bond Landscape is Good News for Bitcoin

Bitcoin is pushing to $110K at the time of writing, marking a clear shift in the financial paradigm.

Rising US bond yields, stalling global growth, and concerns about financial instability and inflation are leading many investors to pivot to crypto and Bitcoin as a hedge.

Indeed, Bitcoin is known to thrive in rough financial waters, and today, this is buoyed by institutional investors racing to stack $BTC at an unprecedented rate.

Based on the latest data, global companies and ETFs now control more than 15% of the total supply of Bitcoin, or 3.23M tokens.

Of these, Michael Saylor’s Strategy dominates the news with its frequent Bitcoin buys. Today, Strategy owns 576,230 $BTC, worth roughly $63B at the current price.

Strategy Bitcoin purchases

But it’s not alone. A quick peek at CoinGecko’s chart shows a growing leaderboard with 34 major public companies all engaged in a FOMO-driven Bitcoin race.

List of Bitcoin-owning companies on CoinGecko

Strategy Creates a Supply Problem

The situation is so surreal that Strategy’s Bitcoin stacking alone supersedes the total global mining output by a rate of almost 4:1.

In other words, Saylor’s demand of 2,000 bitcoins per day is outstripping the 450 bitcoins per day supply coming from BTC miners.

SYZ Capital’s Managing Partner, Richard Byworth, called this the ‘Bitcoin supply problem,’ suggesting that Bitcoin is essentially facing a bottleneck, with the demand outpacing the supply by a great margin.

In the long term, this could cause Bitcoin to be sold out of circulation, creating a climate where it would be very easy to sell Bitcoin but very difficult to buy.

UXTO’s Guillaume Girard reiterates this problem in his ‘Forecasting Institutional Flows to Bitcoin in 2025/2026,’ stating that:

‘We’re entering a new era of Bitcoin adoption—one that is not driven by hype cycles, but by balance sheet fundamentals, sovereign strategy, and long-term fiduciary mandates. […] More than $400 billion in institutional capital will flow into Bitcoin by the end of 2026.’

As Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a safe haven or strategic asset, some of the best altcoins will surely follow closely. One contender is BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL), a top new meme coin that’s strapping itself to Bitcoin for the long haul.

BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL) – Investors Get Free $BTC Airdrops

BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL) attracts investors with free $BTC airdrops and $BTCBULL rewards as Bitcoin reaches key price points ($150K, $200K, $250K) for the first time.

It’s earned a reputation as one of the best presales today thanks to its FOMO-driven ecosystem, promise of generous rewards, and close association with Bitcoin.

BTC Bull Token presale website

The project is based on the idea that Bitcoin is unstoppable and will reach and even surpass the $1M price evaluation.

Based on that, the team is using Bitcoin’s reputation and potential as a launching pad for $BTCBULL, hoping to rally both Bitcoin maximalists and meme coin mavens around the project.

$BTCBULL is an unapologetic meme coin that’s managed to accumulate over $6,3M in its presale since its start on February 10, 2025. The token price currently stands at $0.00253, a low presale price that looks set to see exponential growth post-launch.

Our analysts predict $BTCBULL to reach $0.0497 by the end of 2030, an ROI of 1,864% if you invest now. The token looks just as juicy short-term, with a projected ROI of 155% by the end of 2025 if the price hits the expected $0.006467.

If you’re curious to learn more, check out our ‘how to buy $BTCBULL’ guide for more details and to simplify the purchasing process.

Just note that you need to hold your $BTCBULL in Best Wallet to qualify for the upcoming $BTC airdrops.

Is Bitcoin’s Real Bull Run Just Starting?

When considering the state of the traditional markets, it’s no wonder investors are migrating to Bitcoin and crypto in general.

Bitcoin’s biggest bull run lies ahead, while a meme coin like BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL) can multiply your BTC gains and help you ride the next run all the way to the bank.

Remember: This is not financial advice. DYOR (Do Your Own Research), have robust risk-management strategies in place, and invest on your own terms.

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

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Fed Quietly Buys $43,600,000,000 in US Treasuries in Alleged ‘Stealth QE’ Operation After China Abruptly Dumps Billions in Bonds https://earlybirdsinvest.com/fed-quietly-buys-43600000000-in-us-treasuries-in-alleged-stealth-qe-operation-after-china-abruptly-dumps-billions-in-bonds/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/fed-quietly-buys-43600000000-in-us-treasuries-in-alleged-stealth-qe-operation-after-china-abruptly-dumps-billions-in-bonds/#respond Sat, 24 May 2025 21:22:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/fed-quietly-buys-43600000000-in-us-treasuries-in-alleged-stealth-qe-operation-after-china-abruptly-dumps-billions-in-bonds/

The Federal Reserve just bought $43.6 billion in US treasuries in the span of a week, sparking concerns that a quiet quantitative easing operation is underway.

New filings show the Fed purchased $8.8 billion in 30-year bonds on May 8th via its System Open Market Account (SOMA) – a move that followed a $34.8 billion purchase earlier that same week.

The move has triggered allegations that “stealth QE” has arrived, with a MarketWatch Op-Ed from Charlie Garcia calling the move “monetary policy on tiptoes.”

The Fed denies the claims, and has long stated such purchases are routine reinvestments of maturing securities to adjust the money supply and influence interest rates to meet its targets.

The Fed’s buying spree follows a major Treasury sell-off from China.

New numbers from the Treasury Department show China sold $18.9 billion in US bonds in March, while most other countries increased their holdings.

China now holds $765.4 billion in US Treasuries and is in third place behind the UK and Japan, which hold $779 billion and $1.13 trillion, respectively.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Metaplanet Raises Funds for BTC Purchases Through $21.25M in 0% Ordinary Bonds Issue https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-raises-funds-for-btc-purchases-through-21-25m-in-0-ordinary-bonds-issue/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-raises-funds-for-btc-purchases-through-21-25m-in-0-ordinary-bonds-issue/#respond Fri, 09 May 2025 09:59:45 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-raises-funds-for-btc-purchases-through-21-25m-in-0-ordinary-bonds-issue/

Tokyo-based Bitcoin holdings firm Metaplanet is raising funds through a separate bond issuance to purchase more Bitcoins. The news arrives days after the investment giant bought 555 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 5,555 Bitcoin.

Metaplanet announced on Friday that it would issue 21.25 million USD in 0% Ordinary Bonds to purchase more BTC. The company has already crossed halfway in its ambitious target of holding 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025.

“The funds raised will be allocated to the purchase of Bitcoin,” an official release noted. The decision came during a board of directors meeting on May 9.

Further, the firm said that it will issue a 14th Stock Acquisition Rights to EVO Fund, a Cayman Islands-based equity hedge fund.

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin stash is valued at approximately $575.91 million after its recent purchase, with an average price of $86,672 per Bitcoin, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. Asia’s largest BTC holder ranks 11th globally in crypto reserves.

Metaplanet Allocates Entire Bond Issuance to EVO Fund

Per the company release, the bonds will be redeemed in full at face value on Nov. 7 and will bear no interest.

“However, the Bondholder may request early redemption of all or part of the outstanding bonds” by notifying the company earlier, it read.

With the current price of Bitcoin at $103,679, according to CoinGecko data at press time, Metaplanet would purchase 205 BTC if it raises the full $21.25 million.

‘Tidal Wave’ of More Firms Buying Bitcoin: CEO

Speaking at the Bitcoin for Corporations 2025 on May 6, Simon Gerovich, CEO of Metaplanet, shared the remarkable story of how his company became the top-performing publicly listed equity of 2024 by pivoting fully to a Bitcoin standard.

He revealed how BTC-denominated KPIs and strategic treasury operations turned equity into Bitcoin.

“We are at a tipping point. A tidal wave of corporate Bitcoin adoption is coming,” he said at the event.

In a separate post on X, Gerovich also shared how the company started on Bitcoin standard a year ago and how it stands now after one year. He shared two pictures in comparison.

The post Metaplanet Raises Funds for BTC Purchases Through $21.25M in 0% Ordinary Bonds Issue appeared first on Cryptonews.

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VanEck proposes Bitcoin-linked Treasury bonds to offset $14 trillion in US debt https://earlybirdsinvest.com/vaneck-proposes-bitcoin-linked-treasury-bonds-to-offset-14-trillion-in-us-debt/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/vaneck-proposes-bitcoin-linked-treasury-bonds-to-offset-14-trillion-in-us-debt/#respond Tue, 15 Apr 2025 23:36:43 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/vaneck-proposes-bitcoin-linked-treasury-bonds-to-offset-14-trillion-in-us-debt/

VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, has proposed the introduction of “BitBonds,” a hybrid debt instrument combining US Treasuries with Bitcoin (BTC) exposure, as a novel strategy for managing the government’s looming $14 trillion refinancing requirement. 

The concept was presented at the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Summit and aims to address sovereign funding needs and investor demand for inflation protection.

BitBonds would be structured as 10-year securities consisting of 90% traditional US Treasury exposure and 10% Bitcoin, with the BTC component funded by bond sale proceeds. 

At maturity, investors would receive the full value of the US Treasury portion, which would be $90 on a $100 bond, plus the value of the Bitcoin allocation. 

Additionally, investors would capture 100% of Bitcoin’s upside until their yield-to-maturity reaches 4.5%. Government and bondholders would split any gains beyond that threshold.

This structure intends to align the interests of bond investors, who increasingly seek protection from dollar debasement and asset inflation, with the Treasury’s need to refinance at competitive rates. 

Sigel said the proposal was “an aligned solution for mismatched incentives.” 

Investor breakeven

According to Sigel’s projections, the investor breakeven for BitBonds depends on the bond’s fixed coupon and Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR). 

For bonds with a 4% coupon, the breakeven BTC CAGR is 0%. However, for lower-yielding versions, breakeven thresholds are higher: 13.1% CAGR for 2% coupon bonds and 16.6% for 1% coupon bonds. 

If Bitcoin CAGR remains between 30% to 50%, modeled returns rise sharply across all coupon tiers, with investor gains reaching up to 282%.

Sigel said BitBonds would be a “convex bet” for investors who believe in Bitcoin as the instrument would offer asymmetric upside while retaining a base layer of risk-free return. However, their structure means investors bear the full downside of Bitcoin exposure. 

Lower coupon bonds could produce steep negative returns in scenarios where BTC loses value. For example, a 1% coupon BitBond would lose 20% to 46%, depending on  Bitcoin’s underperformance.

Treasury benefits

From the US government’s perspective, the core benefit of BitBonds would be lower borrowing costs. Even if Bitcoin appreciates modestly or not at all, the Treasury will save on interest payments compared to traditional 4% fixed-rate bonds.

According to Sigel’s analysis, the government’s breakeven interest rate is approximately 2.6%. Issuing bonds with coupons below that level would reduce annual debt service, generating savings even in flat or declining Bitcoin scenarios.

Sigel projected that issuing $100 billion in BitBonds with a 1% coupon and no BTC upside would save the government $13 billion over the bond’s life. If Bitcoin reaches a 30% CAGR, the same issuance could yield over $40 billion in additional value, primarily from shared Bitcoin gains.

Sigel also pointed out that this approach would create a differentiated sovereign bond class, offering the US asymmetric upside exposure to Bitcoin while reducing dollar-denominated obligations. 

He added:

“BTC upside just sweetens the deal. Worst case: cheap funding. Best case: long-vol exposure to the hardest asset on Earth.”

The breakeven BTC CAGR for the government rises with higher bond coupons, reaching 14.3% for 3% coupon BitBonds and 16.3% for 4% coupon versions. In adverse BTC scenarios, the Treasury would lose value only if it issued higher-coupon bonds while BTC underperformed.

Trade-offs on issuance complexity and risk allocation

Despite the potential benefits, VanEck’s presentation acknowledges the structure’s shortcomings. Investors take on Bitcoin’s downside without full upside participation, and lower-coupon bonds become unattractive unless Bitcoin performs exceptionally well.

Structurally, the Treasury would also need to issue more debt to compensate for the 10% of proceeds used to purchase Bitcoin. Every $100 billion in funding would require an additional 11.1% to offset the BTC allocation.

The proposal suggests possible design improvements, including downside protection to shield investors from sharp BTC declines partially.

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Tariffs caused Bitcoin to decline less than equities or oil yet more than bonds or gold https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tariffs-caused-bitcoin-to-decline-less-than-equities-or-oil-yet-more-than-bonds-or-gold/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tariffs-caused-bitcoin-to-decline-less-than-equities-or-oil-yet-more-than-bonds-or-gold/#respond Wed, 09 Apr 2025 13:41:24 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tariffs-caused-bitcoin-to-decline-less-than-equities-or-oil-yet-more-than-bonds-or-gold/

Bitcoin continues to trade lower for April, surrendering the majority of its Q1 gains as global markets react to escalating US-China trade tensions.

The move, tied to the US trade war, comes amid broader asset repricing, with Treasury yields falling, oil collapsing, and equities entering correction territory.

Prices since tariffs announced (Source: TradingView)
Prices since tariffs announced (Source: TradingView)

The above post-tariff chart captures the acute market response since President Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping trade penalties and China’s response of an 84% tariff on US goods, a move Beijing described as non-negotiable.

Within days, oil prices collapsed by 20.92%, while SPY fell 10.23% and Bitcoin dropped 7.34%. Bond prices also declined, with US10 and CN10 down 2.42% and 2.58%, respectively, reflecting upward pressure on yields.

Gold, often a traditional safe haven, retreated 2.83%, indicating that liquidity stress and risk-off sentiment dominated across asset classes.

Bitcoin’s relative positioning, down less than SPY and oil but more than bonds and gold, shows that despite strategic reserve narratives, it remains partially tethered to broader macro volatility under acute market stress.

Global assets since US election (Source: TradingView)
Global assets since the US election (Source: TradingView)

Their overall performance since Donald Trump’s election win solidifies Bitcoin’s relative resilience.

Since the November 2024 US election, Bitcoin is up 11.51 %, and gold is closely trailing at 11.09 percent. Both assets have held ground as traditional markets repriced sharply. SPY has declined 14.42%, and oil prices have collapsed by over 20%, highlighting widespread macro stress.

Meanwhile, the US and Chinese 10-year bond prices (US10 and CN10) have fallen 5.11% and 1.72%, respectively, consistent with expectations of persistent inflation or heightened issuance.

BTC correlation with macro deepens

Bitcoin’s performance since Trump’s inauguration initially tracked with a supportive policy environment.

Public backing of crypto adoption, tokenization of reserves, and re-shoring initiatives contributed to a bullish narrative across digital assets.

However, the latest data shows Bitcoin trading mostly in line with risk assets rather than decoupling from them.

The recent selloff across SPY and the reversal in Treasury yields reflect shifting expectations. Markets are beginning to price in slower growth, tighter consumption, and more defensive positioning. Yale’s Budget Lab projects a 0.9 percentage point decline in real GDP for 2025, with the average household expected to incur $3,800 in additional costs from the tariff regime.

Despite favorable long-term policy framing, Bitcoin has not escaped volatility tied to global liquidity and demand concerns. Institutional allocators appear to be reducing exposure to beta-sensitive assets, crypto included, as recession odds rise.

JPMorgan now places the probability of a global recession at 60%, up from 40% before the April announcements. Goldman Sachs raised its US-specific projection to 45 percent. JPMorgan’s annual letter also cautioned that prolonged tariffs may contribute to persistent inflation, asset volatility, and reduced investment confidence.

Global bond divergence narrows Bitcoin’s safe-haven window

While US Treasury yields have reversed sharply, China’s sovereign bond market is reflecting different stress signals. The China 10-year yield is down to 1.65 percent, dropping 65 basis points year over year.

Trading Economics data also shows consistent yield declines across the 2Y, 5Y, and 30Y curves. These moves imply deflationary pressure, weak external demand, and limited domestic growth rebound potential.

As Citi reported, China’s GDP forecast has been cut from 4.7 percent to 4.2 percent for 2025. However, this is still considerably higher than the US’s current 2.4% growth and projected 3% decline. Kaiyuan Securities projects that US tariffs may reduce Chinese exports by nearly a third, reducing total exports by 4.5 percent and dragging growth by over a percentage point.

Yet,

With both Western and Chinese sovereign curves pricing in downside growth risk, Bitcoin’s role as a global reserve hedge becomes more complicated.

Institutional portfolios may hold back on discretionary allocation until liquidity stabilizes or policy clarity returns.

Trump’s framing of Bitcoin as a reserve-grade digital commodity continues to resonate with parts of the domestic crypto ecosystem, but implementation remains unclear. For now, investors appear to be watching macro signals more than political signaling.

Bitcoin outlook in context of recession risk

The structural narrative surrounding Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge, inflation buffer, or programmable reserve asset remains intact.

However, in periods of macro stress, correlations tend to increase across all risk markets. The latest price action indicates that Bitcoin is not yet viewed as a risk-off asset under liquidity duress.

BTC may still find policy tailwinds if the administration accelerates Bitcoin-native initiatives, introduces digital treasury issuance, or formalizes sovereign Bitcoin holdings. Until then, market participants are trading the asset through a macro lens. Price behavior remains closely tied to risk conditions, recession modeling, and cross-asset liquidity.

Brent crude oil has fallen more than 20 percent since late March, with forward spreads narrowing and surplus pricing increasing. Consumer retrenchment, reduced export demand, and pressure on manufacturing margins all feed into broader market repricing.

Bitcoin, as part of the broader allocation spectrum, remains sensitive to these shifts.

Year-to-date Bitcoin is actually one of the worst-performing assets, second only to oil.

Year to date chart of global bonds, commodities and securities (Source: TradingView)
Year-to-date chart of global bonds, commodities, and securities (Source: TradingView)

The divergence illustrates how Bitcoin and gold have so far absorbed trade war volatility more effectively than oil, equities, or sovereign debt markets, suggesting that Bitcoin has drawn relative strength even as global liquidity deteriorates.

However, no asset can compare to gold in 2025, up 16%.

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Your Guide to NFT Bonds: A Fresh Look at Investment Strategies https://earlybirdsinvest.com/your-guide-to-nft-bonds-a-fresh-look-at-investment-strategies/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/your-guide-to-nft-bonds-a-fresh-look-at-investment-strategies/#respond Wed, 19 Mar 2025 23:05:48 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/your-guide-to-nft-bonds-a-fresh-look-at-investment-strategies/

Have you ever wondered how digital technology might change bond investing? You’ve likely heard about traditional bonds—governments or corporations issue them, and you earn interest in return for your investment.

Now, you can explore a new type of bond that could shift how you approach fixed-income investments: NFT Bonds. These bonds combine what you already know about regular bonds with the efficiency of blockchain records.

Read on to learn about the basics of NFT Bonds and see how they stack up against traditional bonds and about their real-world uses. Finally, we’ll examine possible risks and the broader market outlook.

Understanding NFT Bonds

Definition and Core Concept

NFT Bonds are digital tokens that represent slices of traditional bonds on a blockchain. Instead of one certificate representing a large amount, these bonds can be divided into segments so you can buy smaller portions. This arrangement opens the door for investors with more limited funds to participate.

Structure and Function

These bonds are recorded on a distributed ledger using smart contracts (automated programs that handle specific tasks). Once a bond becomes an NFT, its transaction history is written on the blockchain, making transfers transparent and straightforward. You can trade your slice on secondary marketplaces if you decide to exit your position earlier than the original maturity date.

In essence, NFT Bonds combine the predictable nature of conventional debt instruments with the streamlined operations of blockchain technology. You gain potential access to more accessible trading, lower administrative hurdles, and faster settlement times—especially when compared to older methods of managing bond ownership.

Key Features and Benefits

Accessibility

NFT Bonds stand out for allowing fractional ownership. Traditional bonds might require significant upfront capital, but with this newer approach, you can buy smaller shares. By lowering the cost of entry, NFT Bonds appeal to a wider range of investors than typical markets.

Transparency and Security

Blockchain records each transaction in a permanent, unchangeable way. This arrangement makes fraudulent alterations much harder. Each token includes cryptographic safeguards that help ensure you’re transacting with genuine assets rather than forgeries.

Liquidity

Unlike some conventional bonds that lock you in until maturity, NFT Bonds are often traded on secondary marketplaces. You could, for instance, purchase a bond and then sell it online a week later if market conditions look favorable. This liquidity may draw investors looking for more freedom in their bond holdings.

Customization and Efficiency

Thanks to smart contracts, coupon payments and other tasks can be automated. There’s also room to customize a bond’s terms. This level of adaptability can reduce reliance on third parties, resulting in quicker transactions and possibly lower fees.

Comparing NFT Bonds to Traditional Bonds

Although they share the core idea of raising debt capital in exchange for interest, NFT Bonds and traditional bonds differ in a few ways:

Market Volatility

  • NFT Bonds: Their prices might swing more widely because they’re tied to crypto markets. They can move in response to shifts in digital asset trading.

  • Traditional Bonds: Generally, these assets come with stable returns, making them appear less sensitive to short-term market events.

Liquidity Risk

  • NFT Bonds: In principle, you can buy or sell them any time, yet the overall market is still growing. Buyer demand may not always be high.

  • Traditional Bonds: Certain issues can be traded readily, but many remain inactive until maturity. Established government or corporate bonds often have deeper markets than niche offerings.

Regulatory Risk

  • NFT Bonds: Different regions have varied rules, which creates questions about compliance and classification. You may need to keep an eye on changing legislation.

  • Traditional Bonds: Decades of oversight give them relatively settled regulations, so the legal framework is usually more predictable.

Security and Fraud Risk

  • NFT Bonds: Although transparency is high on a blockchain, coding flaws or scams targeting newcomers can still pose threats.

  • Traditional Bonds: These instruments generally fall under established standards, though issuer default remains a possibility.

Systemic Risk

  • NFT Bonds: Strong ties to crypto cycles can amplify the impact of sudden downturns.

  • Traditional Bonds: Certain bonds (like government bonds) can function as safe havens in economic slumps.

Real-World Applications

Real Estate Tokenization

NFT Bonds let you hold smaller parts of a real estate asset. Suppose a building is worth $750,000. You can split it into 7,500 tokens of $100 each. This approach might make property investing more realistic for you if you don’t want to commit a large sum.

Corporate Bond Issuance

Some firms are now creating on-chain bonds. For instance, Credefi has partnered with several financial institutions to place millions of dollars in corporate bonds on the XRP Ledger. This plan underlines the growing interest in blockchain-based debt from mainstream companies.

Collateralized Lending

If you own NFT Bonds, you can sometimes use them to secure a loan. In a default scenario, the smart contract automatically transfers the bond to the lender—saving the time and paperwork typical of older solutions.

Secondary Market Trading

NFT Bonds can be sold or purchased on digital platforms, letting you adjust your holdings quickly. This flexibility may be appealing if you prefer not to wait out the entire bond term.

Spotlight on Emerging Platforms

Credefi NFT Bonds

Credefi has stirred the waters with its infrastructure, which supports the issuance and management of corporate bonds on the blockchain. They’re tokenized, with the ownership noted on-chain. Coupon payments can be automated, and you can sell your bonds on a market if you choose to do so. These assets could even be used as collateral in certain decentralized finance streams.

Lenfi and Peer-to-Peer Lending

Lenfi tokenizes the loans on the Cardano blockchain. The lender and the borrower are provided with an NFT Bond, symbolizing their share in a contract. When paying the loan, the borrower gets their collateral back by returning the bond to the smart contract. If you need liquidity sooner, you can sell the bond on a marketplace, hoping that a person who believes in the loan terms will purchase it.

Considerations and Challenges

You might wonder about legal oversight. Rules for digital assets can vary depending on where you live, and that makes it important for you to stay updated on how authorities classify NFT Bonds. Moreover, the market for NFT Bonds is still developing, meaning that trade volumes might be lower than what you’re used to with standard bonds.

In addition, risks like coding errors or inaccurate pricing could affect your returns. Some of these concerns will likely lessen as the sector grows and more investors participate. Even so, it’s wise to stay informed, weigh potential risks, and speak with professionals if you’re unsure.

Market Outlook

Industry leaders—such as Larry Fink from BlackRock—have suggested that more financial assets will eventually appear on-chain. This shift suggests a future in which larger institutions may test or adopt token-based financing. If you see more established players entering this area, that could draw an even wider audience and prompt further product development.

Credefi, Lenfi, and other early adopters are actively expanding. Their success depends on clear regulations, reliable technology, and tangible benefits for people like you. Keep an eye on these platforms as they shape the broader discussion about combining blockchain with fixed-income securities.

Conclusion

NFT bonds offer a new method for investing in bonds that allows you to more easily hold fractional interests, track trades on a decentralized ledger, and sell assets when you need to. You could think of them as a new method for participation in fixed-income investments, with the speed and transparency that blockchains offer.

Still, you should be aware of regulatory, technological, and market-related challenges. That’s why it can help to read updates on relevant laws, look into each platform’s track record, and possibly consult financial experts for guidance. You may find that NFT Bonds align well with your strategy—or you may conclude that the uncertainties overshadow the benefits for now. Either way, it’s a space worth watching as digital finance continues to gain traction.

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