08 September Bitfinex alpha | BTC will integrate ahead of potential Q4 strength as bond markets are distorted

Bitcoin is stable between $108,000 and $112,000, with buyers defending key support zones and filling the air gap left up until July’s Rapid Rally. Deeper corrections are still possible, but the result is time-based integration, especially when it serves as a cyclical lower point than the historically strong Q4. The profitability of short-term holders has been normalized, leaving profits from 42% to 58% of this cohort, but ETF inflows have been slowed sharply in both BTC and ETH. The demand for this cooling facility sees convictions of stronger spots in BTC compared to the combination of directional flow and arbitrage activity that characterizes ETH, but highlights the market’s dependence on fresh catalysts.

Seasonality adds weight to the current integrated narrative. August fell 6.5% and closed in line with a historically weak profile, but September was traditionally the softest month with an average return of 3.3%. That said, the “September Red” effect has recently faded, with the fourth quarter seasonality historically strong, with October and November earning a large average profit.

If the Fed sees interest rate cuts in September, actual yields and low dollars can amplify the seasonal benefits of BTC and set up a phase of updated momentum. Until then, integration remains a basic case due to ETF flows, macro policy shifts, and placement of derivatives that act as key signals to monitor.

The US economy is putting pressure on weaker labor data, bond market tensions, and political conspiracies around the Fed converge. The August Employment Report on Friday, September 5th revealed a payroll growth of just 22,000, bringing the unemployment rate to 4.3% in nearly four years. Softness will strengthen expectations for Fed rate reductions at its September 16th-17th meeting, but sticky inflation complicates the decision. The bond market reflects tension. Short-term yields have fallen to expectations of interest rate cuts, but remained close to 5% in 30 years, indicating investors’ concerns and financial reliability over the deficit. This cut has skyrocketed the curve, increasing long-term borrowing costs and burning flights to gold. President Trump rejects federal government governor Lisa Cook, exacerbating the challenge by threatening new EU tariffs, encouraging investors to weigh not only economic fundamentals but also increasing uncertainty about the Fed’s independence and the direction of US policy.

In the meantime, the global crypto landscape is changing as regulators and markets move towards a more clear framework. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trade Commission issued a rare joint pledge to more closely coordinate the monitoring of digital assets on Friday, September 5th, covering spot crypto products, permanent contracts, portfolio margins, and clearer rules of definitions.

The September 29th joint roundtable has moved this agenda forward, further strengthening it by the 2025 Responsible Financial Innovation Act. The bill also introduces measures to protect and clarify Defi developer status, decentralized physical infrastructure networks, airdrops, and staking rewards. He also directs research into tokenized real-world assets. Together, these moves show Congresses and regulators working together to strengthen the US competitiveness in the digital market. Institutional trust in Solana is also increasing. Last weekend, Sol Strategies announced it had secured approval for its uplist to Nasdaq under ticker Stke, a company milestone focused on Solana, which surpasses its CAD $1 billion mandated assets and owns a treasury of nearly 400,000 Sols. Meanwhile, the South Korean Financial Services Commission issued swept lending rules on September 5, 2025, emphasizing aggressive push to curb interest rates, ban radical loans, limit eligible tokens to maximum assets, protect investors and stabilize the domestic market.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-will-integrate-ahead-of-potential-q4-strength-as-bond-markets-are-distorted/feed/ 0 57702 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-scores-milestone-as-chinese-firm-floats-1st-public-rwa-bond/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-scores-milestone-as-chinese-firm-floats-1st-public-rwa-bond/#respond Tue, 02 Sep 2025 14:14:00 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-scores-milestone-as-chinese-firm-floats-1st-public-rwa-bond/

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China has taken another step into blockchain-based finance, but in a way that avoids direct involvement with cryptocurrencies.

A state-owned firm in Shenzhen has launched a digital bond offering on Ethereum, showing how the country is selectively embracing new technology while keeping its hard stance on crypto trading in place.

First State-Backed RWA Bond On Ethereum

According to reports, Futian Investment Holding completed a 500 million yuan issuance of offshore bonds on August 29.

The bonds, equal to nearly $70 million, were rolled out in Hong Kong and listed on the Ethereum blockchain. They carry a 2.62% annual interest rate and will expire in two years.

The company described the deal as part of an effort to expand its funding sources while also responding to the growing use of real-world assets and tokenization in global markets.

It also pointed to Hong Kong’s supportive policies as a factor in the decision, saying the bond aligns with the district’s push to attract digital asset innovation.

#UZX BREAKING NEWS #RWA

Futian Investment Holding Announces Issuance of the World’s First Public RWA Digital Bond on a Public Blockchain pic.twitter.com/E2sGIJZdwl

— UZX Official (@UZX_Official) September 2, 2025

Crypto Still Off-Limits At Home

The move does not mean that China has softened its ban on crypto or Ethereum. Back in 2021, Beijing imposed a full ban on crypto mining and trading.

Officials at the time said the measures were needed to control energy use and to guard against risks that might destabilize the country’s financial system.

BTCUSD trading at $110,388 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

That ban remains in effect today. Ordinary citizens and companies in mainland China are still blocked from using or trading cryptocurrencies.

What is allowed, however, are limited experiments like tokenized bonds that stay within the bounds of traditional finance.

Hong Kong As A Testing Ground

By routing the deal through Hong Kong, Beijing can keep its domestic ban intact while still signaling that it wants exposure to blockchain-based finance.

The bustling metro has been given more room to try out digital asset projects, and this latest bond fits into that role.

China’s strategy delineates a clear split: blockchain as a tool for finance is embraced in regulated manifestations, while crypto as an unfettered market asset is still off-limits.

Stablecoins, particularly dollar-denominated stablecoins, have also attracted scrutiny in Beijing, with officials concerned that they can undermine other currencies based around the world.

Reports suggest this RWA bond may be the first in a series of state-backed blockchain and Ethereum financial products tied to Hong Kong.

For now, the issuance shows China’s intent to cautiously explore blockchain without reopening the door to Bitcoin, stablecoins, or wider crypto adoption.

Featured image from Agoda, chart from TradingView 

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DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says that the trend of American exceptionalism has come to an abrupt end.

In a new CNBC interview, the billionaire “Bond King” says that foreign investors have been happily investing in US assets over the last two decades, leading to massive capital inflows to the tune of tens of trillions of dollars.

But now, Gundlach says he’s seeing signs that foreign investors are yanking capital out of US markets in favor of the euro and European equities. According to the hedge fund chief executive, the reversal in flows tells him that investors are now crowning a new market leader.

“Foreigners have been very willing – downright enthusiastic, almost euphoric – about buying dollar assets over the past 18 years or so. Over $25 trillion has been invested in US financial markets, more than the US has invested in foreign markets. 

That’s a massive increase. It went from $3 trillion to $28 trillion by one measure. That may be reversing, and this is part of the underpinning for why I think that the trend of US outperformance is over. And I mean over for real…

I’ve been recommending Europe in European currency for dollar-based investors. The [European] index has outperformed the US index by a decent amount, but if you had the currency side of it, if you own it in euros and you get the currency translation, you are just printing money right now. 

And that trade, I believe, is just getting started.”

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Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach is warning that the US dollar is very close to triggering a collapse amid its sustained weakness this year.

In a new video update, the DoubleLine Capital CEO says he’s keeping a close watch on the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against a basket of foreign currencies.

Gundlach points out that the DXY has been in a macro downtrend, and he expects the US dollar index to melt down if it loses a diagonal trendline that has held as support since 2011.

“The dollar has been in a pattern of lower highs going back to 1985 and lower lows, with the exception of 2020, perhaps. But I think the dollar is going to continue to go down. 

I know I am not alone in this view… If it breaks down, if you can mentally draw a trendline between that low in 2011 (DXY at 72) and the low back in 2021 (DXY at 89), if we break down below that trendline, I think it’s truly a dollar bear market. 

Should that happen, I would expect it to take out the low on this chart, so down below the level of around 72 or whatever. Now this is surreal.”  

Based on Gundlach’s diagonal trendline, the DXY needs to stay above 97 to avoid a 25% crash toward 72. At time of writing, the DXY is hovering at 98.24.

Last week, the billionaire Bond King said that the stock market, the dollar and the Treasury market are not behaving as usual, hinting at deeper concerns that are unsettling investors in US assets. According to Gundlach, foreign investors holding trillions in US assets may begin pulling out of American markets as concerns mount over the government’s unsustainable fiscal path.

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DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is warning that investors holding trillions of dollars in US assets could soon reallocate capital overseas.

In a new interview with Bloomberg, Gundlach says recent behavior in the stock market, the dollar and the Treasury market appears “strange” to him, hinting at deeper concerns that are unsettling investors in US assets.

According to Gundlach, investors are beginning to sniff out the looming risks tied to the US government’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory.

“In the last 15 years, there has been a number of corrections on the S&P 500, and in every single one of them, when the S&P goes down by more than 10%, the trade-weighted dollar index goes up. This time, the dollar went down when the S&P 500 went down by almost 20%. That’s strange, things are behaving differently. 

Usually when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, rates across the yield curve go down. The 10-year Treasury almost always goes up [in price] immediately following the first Fed rate cut, and then it keeps rallying for a while. This time, the 10-year yield went up, and the yield curve is steepening. 

So I think what we have is recognition that the interest expense for the United States is untenable – if we continue running a $2.1 trillion budget deficit and we continue to have sticky interest rates.” 

The Bond King zeroes in on foreign investors, noting that they hold tens of trillions of dollars in US assets. Gundlach says it is now within the realm of possibility for the investor cohort to start exiting US markets.

“There’s a net investment position; foreigners were investing more in the US than the US was investing outside the country to the tune of $3 trillion. That was about 15 or 17 years ago. It’s now over $25 trillion is the net investment position, and the dollar is falling. It’s not inconceivable that some of that $25 trillion that came in not even two decades could go out.”

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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon just issued a major warning on the state of the US economy.

At an event organized by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, Dimon told regulators that the full effect of all the money printed since 2020 remains to be seen.

“You are going to see a crack in the bond market. It is going to happen. And I tell this to my regulators, some of you who are in this room, I’m telling you it’s going to happen and you’re going to panic.

I’m not gonna panic. We’ll be fine. We’ll probably make more money, and then some of my friends will tell me, ‘We like crises because it’s good for JPMorgan Chase.’ Not really.’”

Dimon says bond vigilantes are back, selling bonds to protest unsustainable fiscal policies and America’s ballooning debt.

In the long run, Dimon says he’s not too worried about China as a potential adversary, and instead believes the US needs to self improve and erase the “enemy within.”

“If we are not the preeminent military and the preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency. That’s a fact. Just read history…

We we have to get our act together and we have to do it very quickly.”

Dimon says a concerted effort to streamline regulations, immigration, taxation, healthcare and schools is needed.

He also reiterated his dissatisfaction with Bitcoin’s emergence as a strategic reserve asset.

“We shouldn’t be stockpiling Bitcoin. We should be stockpiling guns, bullets, tanks, planes, drones, rare earths. We know what we need to do.”

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