The daily XRP chart has turned into a clean Elliott Wave case study, according to crypto technician “Charting Guy,” who argues the latest rebound was corrective rather than impulsive and likely precedes a deeper C-wave pullback toward August’s lows. In a post on X, he wrote: “August bounce from $2.72 to $3.38 was a 3 wave corrective move up unlike $OTHERS 5 wave impulsive move up, so I believe it was a B wave & we will likely revisit the August lows in the coming days/weeks for our C wave to end the correction that started late July.”

XRP Correction Isn’t Over Yet

The annotated chart (XRP/USD) plots a developing five-wave sequence with waves 1 and 2 completed in May and June, a vertical wave 3 peak into mid-July, and an unfolding A-B-C that would finalize wave 4. The A leg knifed off the wave-3 high, a B-wave recovery carried to $3.40, and the projected C leg descends into a Fibonacci cluster that coincides with the August trough. At the time of the snapshot, XRP was quoted around $3.02881 on the daily close, sitting between the 0.786 and 0.888 retracement rails.

Fibonacci scaffolding dominates the chart and defines the key levels the analyst is trading against. The retracement and extension ladder is printed as follows: 0 at $1.61184, 0.136 at $1.78405, 0.236 at $1.92231, 0.382 at $2.14363, 0.5 at $2.34100, 0.618 at $2.55653, 0.702 at $2.72195, 0.786 at $2.87293, 0.888 at $3.1273, and 1.000 at $3.4000.

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Above the prior high, the upside extensions that map the prospective wave-5 run are marked at 1.272 ($4.16533), 1.414 ($4.63105) and 1.618 ($5.39272). The B-wave stall unfolded beneath the $3.1273–$3.4000 resistance band (0.888–1.000), reinforcing that region as the ceiling the market must clear to confirm a finished correction.

Conversely, the proposed C-wave termination zone is anchored by the 0.786–0.702–0.618 stack at $2.87293 / $2.72195 / $2.55653, with the August pivot specifically highlighted at ~$2.72.

A downward-sloping magenta trendline from the wave-3 apex bisects the A-B-C, and the projected path drives price into a labeled “4” before turning sharply higher into a new advance.

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The terminal “5” marker is placed almost exactly at the 1.414 extension near $4.63105—consistent with the author’s own wording that this represents a conservative target zone—while the 1.618 print at $5.39272 frames an obvious stretch objective if momentum over-delivers.

Addressing community questions about his previous higher target of $8, the analyst replied, “is there anywhere in the post that says no more $8 target?” and, when asked about an extended move in November, he answered “maybe. Maybe.” On positioning, he cautioned that “dips are never guaranteed even if they seem likely,” adding: “hodl imo… use trading options or futures or a trading spot bag to make their short term gains.”

The immediate read is unambiguous: unless XRP can reclaim and hold above $3.1273 and then $3.4000, Charting Guy’s roadmap favors a retest of the August floor near $2.72195 to complete wave 4. Only after such a flush—or a decisive invalidation via resistance break—does his schematic open the door to the next impulsive leg targeting $4.16533 to $4.63105, with $5.39272 reserved for an extended fifth in late-September or early-October.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.96.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradigView.com

Between July 21 and 25, the total stablecoin market cap increased by $4.505 billion to reach $265.22 billion, a 1.73% expansion. Over the same timeframe, total value locked (TVL) in DeFi dropped from $140.804 billion to $135.934 billion, a 3.46% drawdown.

While the rise in stablecoin supply could be interpreted as a sign of incoming capital, the simultaneous drop in DeFi TVL tells us that the new liquidity isn’t being deployed; it’s waiting.

Ethereum saw its TVL fall 2.53% in the past 24 hours despite leading a 7-day climb of over 7.5%. Its price remained relatively stable over the three days, jumping to $3,707 on July 24 and returning to $3,565 on July 25, posting a net gain of just 0.78%.

Price stability paired with a declining TVL and expanding stablecoin base indicates a shift in the market. Capital seems to be rotating out of yield-bearing DeFi positions into liquid, passive stablecoins.

The TVL to stablecoin supply ratio, an effective proxy for on-chain capital efficiency, fell from 0.535 to 0.513 over the past three days. The drop suggests that on-chain capital is growing more risk-averse. With fewer stablecoins being deployed in DeFi protocols and more sitting idle in wallets, bridges, and exchange balances, traders seem to be preparing for another bout of volatility.

This caution is clearly seen in data from DeFi Llama. Ethereum accounts for $81.094 billion of total DeFi TVL and $133.008 billion in stablecoins, yielding a TVL/stablecoin ratio of 0.61, close to the market average. However, a deeper look across other chains shows a fragmented landscape with sharp differences in capital utilization.

Ethereum anchors, Tron hoards

Tron carries $81.989 billion in stablecoins (nearly a third of the entire market), but only $5.766 billion in TVL. That ratio of 0.07, the lowest among top chains, confirms Tron’s role as a stablecoin bridge and settlement layer rather than a yield-driven ecosystem. The new $4.5 billion in stablecoins that entered circulation this week appears to have landed primarily on Tron, Ethereum, and a few L2s like Base and Arbitrum.

Arbitrum and Base showed more balanced deployments. Base holds $4.171 billion in stablecoins and $4.164 billion in DeFi TVL, nearly a 1:1 ratio. Arbitrum follows closely with $3.492 billion in stables and $2.889 billion in TVL, implying capital is actively deployed. In contrast, Solana and BSC maintain moderate deployment ratios of 0.84 and 0.61, respectively. However, both saw sharp one-day drawdowns in TVL, with Solana losing as much as 10%.

Sui and Avalanche show the inverse pattern, with more TVL than stablecoins. Sui has a 2.11 TVL/stables ratio, suggesting capital on the chain is being held in volatile or native assets like LSTs, bridged tokens, or RWAs rather than in stablecoins. Avalanche, too, shows a slight over-indexing in TVL versus stable liquidity.

The combination of growing stablecoin supply and falling TVL is counterintuitive in a healthy, bullish market, where stablecoin mints are often a precursor to yield deployment and leverage. The change we’ve seen in the past three days implies that traders have become slightly more risk-averse.

This may be due to several different factors. DeFi lending rates across protocols remain low, reducing the appeal of stablecoin carry trades. Leverage unwind on perps and restaking positions may be spilling into DeFi TVL. Larger capital pools could also be waiting for new opportunities to deploy.

Stablecoin dominance data supports this interpretation. With USDT holding 61.80% of the total stablecoin market, capital is consolidating in the most liquid, CEX-friendly unit. This choice reinforces the view that large holders are keeping their options open. They want to be able to exit quickly or rotate into other assets like BTC/ETH/perps without slippage.

While DeFi TVL fell nearly $5 billion over three days, ETH managed to stay afloat, even posting a modest gain. This decoupling implies that ETH price action is driven more by structural factors than organic DeFi growth.

That said, if idle stablecoins on Ethereum and L2s eventually rotate back into DeFi through restaking, LSTs, or new incentive programs, ETH could benefit as demand for blockspace rises and staking-derived fees increase. Conversely, if stablecoin capital remains undeployed and ETH fails to hold its current range, the lack of DeFi bid support could become a tailwind for ETH/BTC rotation.

The post Capital shifts to stablecoins as DeFi protocols bleed TVL appeared first on CryptoSlate.

A closely followed analyst who accurately called that the crypto bull market will be focused on Bitcoin (BTC) now believes that it’s time for Ethereum (ETH) to shine.

In November of 2024, analyst Benjamin Cowen predicted that Ethereum would “come home” or drop to its logarithmic growth trendline based on historical patterns.

In April of this year, Ethereum fell to around $1,550, prompting Cowen to declare that ETH had come home.

Now, Cowen says that Ethereum rallies will be partly fueled by capital rotation from altcoins to ETH.

“If you bought ETH when it went home and feel like you are missing out on ALT rallies, consider this:

The collective altcoin market is down 40% against ETH since ETH went home.

We are at the:

‘Yes your alt went up, but does it bleed against Ethereum’ phase of the cycle…

When ALTs bleed to BTC, be in BTC over ALTs.

When ALTs bleed to ETH, be in ETH over ALTs.

It’s not that complicated.” 

The analyst also believes that Ethereum has a solid shot at printing new all-time highs once it takes out a resistance level that has kept the market bearish since December 2021.

“Since ETH went home, the next time it reaches $4,000, there is a good chance it actually breaks through. One way for this cycle to feel more complete is for ETH to rally to new highs sometime over the next half-year.”

At time of writing, Ethereum is worth $3,725.

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US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) have not been left out of the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, as they have witnessed significant withdrawals over the past few days. Due to the ongoing trade war, US investors appear to be moving away from risk assets like digital assets and crypto-based financial products.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Extend Negative Outflow Streak To Seven Days

According to the latest market data, the spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a significant $713 million in total net outflow over the past week. This negative streak of capital outflows suggests a worsening climate and declining appetite for crypto exchange-traded products among United States investors.

Data from SoSoValue shows that the US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded registered a daily total net outflow of $1.03 million on Friday, April 11. This round of withdrawals represented the seventh consecutive day of net outflow for the crypto-based financial products.

Interestingly, most spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s IBIT (the largest BTC exchange-traded fund by net assets), recorded zero netflow to close the week. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (with the ticker ARKB) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (with the ticker BITB) were the only funds that witnessed any activity on Friday.

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF saw a total inflow of $11.28 million on Friday, ending its six-day capital drought. Bitwise’s BTC exchange-traded fund, on the other hand, registered a total withdrawal of $12.31 million to close the past trading week.

Source: SoSoValue

As earlier mentioned, this latest round of capital withdrawals stretched the US Bitcoin ETFs’ negative streak to seven straight days of cumulative outflows. Moreover, this single-day performance brought the exchange-traded products’ weekly record to a disappointing $713 million in total net outflow.

The recent woeful performance of the spot Bitcoin ETFs can be associated with the growing uncertainty in the global financial markets, as the United States and China become embroiled in a trade war. This instability seems to be impacting other US-based crypto products, including the spot Ether ETFs.

According to data from SoSoValue, the Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds experienced a total net outflow of $29.1981 million on Friday. This negative flow of capital represented the crypto products’ fourth consecutive day of net outflows.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

Similarly, the price of Bitcoin crumbled under the uncertain conditions of the market, falling to around $74,000 to start the past week. However, the premier cryptocurrency recovered above $83,000 after United States President Donald Trump paused tariffs on imports from other countries except China.

Bitcoin has reacted further positively to other trade news, including President Trump’s exemption of computer gadgets, smartphones, and chips from new tariffs. As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above $85,000, reflecting an almost 2% jump in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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