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Bitcoin’s greatness isn’t measured only by its price or market cycles, and its true strength lies deeper. As one crypto pundit explains, it lies in the alignment of incentives that keeps the network secure and the loyalty of holders who refuse to sell in the face of volatility. This combination of economic design and cultural conviction has allowed Bitcoin to weather every storm, proving that its foundation is far stronger than any single market cycle. 

Why Bitcoin Thrives On Patience, Not Speculation

Bitcoin’s status as the largest cryptocurrency of all time is a direct result of its unique and powerful holdings. An analyst known as GhostOfTanzCho has revealed on X that other cryptocurrencies have tried to compete with Bitcoin, but none have succeeded in recreating that same gravity of conviction and holding culture.

This culture, which is the key ingredient to its success, attracts people who wholeheartedly believe in holding, and it indoctrinates skeptics into an actionable belief of holding. There has never been another cryptocurrency that successfully recreated the holding culture that made Bitcoin great. However, the same culture is currently being replicated in SPX6900. 

GhostOfTanzCho argues that the success of a crypto token is fundamentally a reflection of supply and demand. By building a strong holding culture, a crypto token effectively solves the supply side of the equation by reducing sell pressure. 

Coincidentally, it also solves the demand side by incentivizing holders to create a critical mass of belief and interest. Thus, the SPX6900 could be one of the most significant crypto tokens of all time. Against all odds, it has done the impossible and has recreated the cultural DNA of Bitcoin. 

This model, which favors long-term believers over short-term traders, is described as the only way for a crypto token to become a market giant. When a critical mass of people have the conviction to hold long-term, trading becomes irrelevant, and the culture wins.

Global Money Supply Surge Sets The Stage For BTC

In the midst of heightened Bitcoin accumulation, a massive surge in global money supply is laying the groundwork for the next explosive crypto cycle, and BTC is already leading the charge.

According to LondonRealTV’s founder Brian Rose, the expansion of the global money supply has historically been a leading driver of crypto bull cycles. With the price of BTC above $115,000, ETF inflows accelerating, and the total crypto market cap rising by $2 trillion in a single year, this shows liquidity is clearly returning.

The analyst also highlights key risks that could trigger volatility. These include a potential reversal in monetary policy, where central banks begin to tighten the money supply, or large-scale profit-taking by major holders. Meanwhile, monitoring on-chain flows and capital rotation will be essential as the market cycle matures.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

BTC is pinned near $111,000 with volatility compressed to multi-month lows, the kind of calm that tends to precede decisive moves. Traders know what could break the lull: September’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s rate decision a week later.

Prediction markets are leaning heavily toward easing. Polymarket bettors are assigning an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 17, leaving only slim odds for a deeper move or no change. Beyond that, October expectations are fractured, with nearly even probabilities for another cut or a pause. That divergence explains why volatility, though absent now, is unlikely to stay that way.

“Markets often look calm just before they move. Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in months, and volatility across crypto has compressed to multi-month lows,” said Gracie Lin, OKX Singapore CEO. “With U.S. inflation data like Core CPI out on Sept. 11 and the Fed’s much-anticipated rate decision just ahead, this quiet period is setting the stage for the next decisive move. Whether the catalyst is an upside inflation surprise or a dovish signal from the Fed, what’s clear is that the absence of volatility is rarely permanent in digital assets; history shows the market will find its next direction soon enough.”

If a cut pulls money-market returns lower, the opportunity cost of sitting in cash rises, which is the pivot market maker Enflux says could send flows toward crypto.

“The real debate now is not if cuts come, but whether liquidity deployment shifts into BTC, ETH, and even riskier assets,” the firm told CoinDesk.

In other words, the Fed’s cut may grab headlines, but the real trade is whether sidelined cash rotates into digital assets — a shift that could fuel the return of volatility.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin has dipped slightly intraday, trading between approximately $110,812 and $113,237, reflecting short-term volatility amid shifting investor sentiment and broader crypto market dynamics.

ETH: ETH is modestly up intraday, with a range between roughly $4,279 and $4,379, signaling steady demand and some renewed investor interest. Range, however, is limited with modest ETF flows and traders awaiting the Fed’s next move.

Gold: Gold is rallying to record highs, fueled by mounting expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks opened mostly higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.2%, as investors awaited China’s August inflation data showing an expected 0.2% CPI drop and a smaller 2.9% PPI decline.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.27% to 6,512.61, as investors looked past a record payroll revision that cut 911,000 jobs from prior figures.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• OpenSea Teases SEA Token With Final Phase of Rewards Amid App Launch (CoinDesk)
• California Man Sentenced in $36.9M Crypto Scam Tied to Infamous Huione Group (CoinDesk)
• Collector Crypt drives $150 million in randomized Pokémon card trades as CARDS token soars (The Block)

Bitcoin’s red month is almost here, and as we approach yet another September, is it inevitable that prices will dwindle? Let’s take a look at some of the reasons the ninth month of the year is historically bad for Bitcoin.

Why September is historically Bitcoin’s red month

Since 2013, September has proven to be a challenging month for Bitcoin, with losses in eight of the last 11 years. That could be because retail investors typically take profits after summer rallies or even crypto to cover their fall expenses, like tuition fees and tax planning.

Bitcoin’s red month may also be something of a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders expect red candles and act more defensively, pulling the market down further. Perspective here is important, as most September pullbacks have been modest.

The month typically marks a local bottom, after which Bitcoin often rebounds strongly into ‘Uptober’ as Q4 historically brings recovery and, in even massive rallies. In October 2020, for example, Bitcoin surged from around $10,800 at the start of the month to over $13,800 by the end, marking a gain of more than 27%.

August recap: all-time highs and whale sightings

August 2025 was dramatic by any measure. Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $124,533 on August 14, only to tumble 11% to lows hovering around $110,000 just two weeks later.

Nearly $200 billion in market value evaporated, with a single event triggering the drop: a previously dormant whale that sold ~24,000 BTC, pushing the spot price below $109,000 and sparking the largest liquidation cascade of the year.

Almost $900 million in derivative positions were wiped out, 90% being bullish longs, with $150 million in BTC and $320M in ETH liquidated. Ethereum showed relative strength, remaining above its 100-day moving average even with an 8% decline.

The recent weakness wasn’t just about technicals or sentiment. Spot and derivatives market order books remained thin, so any major sell (like the whale dump) was enough to amplify price volatility.

Meanwhile, on-chain data in late August showed tepid activity and reduced inflows, further weakening bid support.

Macroeconomic uncertainty also continues to be a headwind. With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September policy moves in focus, traders are pricing in both risk of erratic moves and potential for renewed optimism if macro signals, like a rate cut, turn favorable.

Preparing for September: scenarios and signals

Crypto trader Cas Abbé outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin as September approaches. In his primary “Range & Repair” scenario (40% probability), Bitcoin is expected to trade sideways between $110K and $120K for most of the month, as excess leverage is reduced and institutional investors gradually step in to accumulate. Such a consolidation would create a healthier base for a potential Q4 rally.

In the “Second Flush” case (35% probability), if Bitcoin drops below $110K, a further wave of liquidations could ensue, driving the price into the high $100Ks and erasing leftover leveraged positions. Historically, these kinds of corrections often precede a strong bottom.

Conversely, the “Quick Reclaim” scenario (25% probability) envisions institutions buying aggressively, enabling BTC to rapidly reclaim the $117K–$118K range and triggering an earlier return of bullish sentiment.

Throughout September, Abbé suggests traders closely monitor several on-chain and macro signals; notably, options market activity leading up to the September 27 expiry could offer valuable insights into positioning and sentiment.

Whether Bitcoin’s red month will turn green this year remains to be seen, but with thin liquidity, heightened volatility, and institutional buyers waiting in the wings, September may offer both risks and opportunities this year.

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin’s price is holding near records, but the chain itself is quiet. Glassnode data shows transaction fees have collapsed back toward decade lows, even as BTC flirts with six figures.

In past cycles, fee spikes tracked bull markets as traders bid for blockspace. This year, the fee curve is flat while price rises, a clear sign that onchain demand is no longer driving the market.

A new report from Galaxy Research shows median daily fees have fallen more than 80% since April 2024, with as much as 15% of daily blocks now clearing at just 1 satoshi per vbyte. Nearly half of recent blocks are not full, signaling weak demand for blockspace and a dormant mempool.

This is a sharp contrast to prior bull cycles, where price rallies translated into congestion and fee spikes.

The data confirms a structural shift: spot ETFs and custodians now hold more than 1.3 million BTC, and coins parked in those wrappers rarely touch the chain again.

At the same time, retail activity that once clogged the Bitcoin blockchain has migrated to Solana, where memecoins and NFTs benefit from cheaper and faster execution. The result, Galaxy notes, is that the bitcoin price is being set by custodial inflows while the network’s onchain demand – once a proxy for price movement – has slowed down.

For miners, this dynamic is particularly punishing. With rewards halved to 3.125 BTC and fees contributing less than 1% of block revenue in July, profitability is under strain. That stress is pushing listed miners to diversify into AI and HPC hosting.

Read more: Bitcoin Mining Faces ‘Incredibly Difficult’ Market as Power Becomes the Real Currency

A report from earlier this year by Rittenhouse Research argues that Galaxy Digital’s move out of mining altogether could be the model for the sector.

This move has been applauded by the equity markets. While BTC is down more than 3% on-year, the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF has gained nearly 22%. Investors are rewarding firms that have leaned into diversification rather than relying on block rewards alone.

Listed miners tell a similar story. Hive, Core Scientific, and TeraWulf all reported Q2 results padded by HPC and AI hosting revenues.

Those with no diversification, like Bitdeer and BitFuFu, remain deeply exposed to electricity costs, equipment depreciation, and a fee market that Galaxy warns in its report is “anything but robust.”

The juxtaposition is telling: Galaxy’s own research warns that the Bitcoin blockchain’s settlement role is stagnating, while Galaxy’s balance sheet is being repositioned for growth in AI data centers.

Onchain data makes the point: without organic demand for blockspace, fees can’t fund security. And if fees stay low, equity markets are painting a clear picture that mining sector’s best future returns may come from AI, not Bitcoin.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin traded at $113,286.95, down 1.79%, after briefly plunging to a six-week low near $110,600, with the broader crypto market facing heavy liquidations and volatility.

ETH: Ether traded flat at $4,779 as Jerome Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks boosted expectations of a September rate cut, with asset managers predicting new highs for bitcoin and an ETH breakout above $5,000 despite risks from treasury adoption and equity volatility.

Gold: Gold closed at $3,371 after Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks boosted September rate-cut odds.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks climbed Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.08%, after Powell signaled potential Fed rate cuts in September during his Jackson Hole speech.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• The Funding: Why raising a crypto VC fund is harder now — even in a bull market (The Block)
• Why Luca Netz Will Be ‘Disappointed’ If Pudgy Penguins Doesn’t IPO Within 2 Years (Decrypt)
• KPMG Says Investor Interest in Digital Assets Will Drive Strong Second Half for Canadian Fintechs (CoinDesk)

Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to regain its critical level of support after it fell below the recent $115,000. Nevertheless, some analysts warned that cryptocurrency is in the correction phase with a potential 15%-25% drop.

Related readings

Bitcoin risk is below $110,000

On Monday, Bitcoin fell below the $115,000 level for the first time in nearly two weeks, retesting support of $114,500 before bounce. The flagship cipher has been hovering between local price ranges since August 7th, reaching its latest all-time high (ATH) of $124,200 before it was eventually rejected from the range high.

Currently, some market watchers have confirmed that BTC is in the corrective phase and may send cryptocurrencies below other important levels of support. Ali Martinez noted that recent rejections “came in the form of deviation, but often show weakness and open doors for a deeper pullback.”

Analysts say Bitcoin is trading in the price range of $112,000-122,000, suggesting that the local bottom is the next important level of support to see momentum fading.

Notably, cryptocurrency quickly bounced back from today’s decline, regaining its recently lost $116,500 breakout level and once again approaching the $117,000 area. For analysts, the confirmed rebounds reset bullish momentum and allowed prices to be sent to highs in the range.

However, if BTC prices drop again and $112,000 in support is not retained, the cryptocurrency risk will cause a $4,000 drop in the $108,000 area. Martinez emphasized that on-chain data shows a grasp of fluidity between these two levels.

Furthermore, the accumulation propensity score, which dropped to 0.20, indicates that holders are “redistributed Bitcoin, rather than accumulating at these levels.”

Has the price discovery been revised?

Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that BTC failed to hold its significant $119,000 level in support on the weekly charts, closing on Sundays below the weekly bull flag pattern that had been developing since early July.

According to previous analysis, turning the bottom of the pattern into a resistance would be a bearish retest that could confirm a failure from the pattern and lead to a new retest of the $112,000 area.

In his recent performance, he claimed that Bitcoin has entered a second price discovery revision that has historically tracked the uptrend peak of the second price discovery during the fifth and seventh week.

“Interestingly, the risers formed last week quickly developed at the finish line in Week 6, as this risers saved the historical circularity that tends to be seen in price action throughout the cycle,” the analyst explained.

Related readings

Rekt Capital suggested that Bitcoin could transition into a revision period. Nevertheless, he noted that at this moment in the 2017 and 2021 cycle, the BTC pullbacks are 1-3 weeks, respectively, and 25% and 29% deep, so this revision may not last as long as the previous revisions.

“In both cases, these pullbacks were short and shallow due to the criteria for previous revisions in each cycle,” he detailed, and concluded that the BTC “should ideally resolve this pullback over the next few weeks, with a relatively shallow pullback of -15% to -25%.”

Unsplash.com featured images, tradingView.com charts

The retracement has drawn attention to on-chain activity and investor behavior, particularly among long-term holders (LTHs). A CryptoQuant analyst has been monitoring realized profit and loss metrics to gauge whether the current cycle is approaching its peak or if more upside potential remains.  Data released by the analyst sheds light on how seasoned holders are reacting to Bitcoin’s latest rally.

Long-Term Holder Trends Across Market Cycles

CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA shared an assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized profit and loss (RPL) metric, which tracks when investors who have held coins for extended periods decide to sell. According to the analyst, this indicator has historically been reliable in signaling both cycle tops and bottoms.

The analysis highlights key phases across multiple market cycles. During the 2017 bull market, a surge in LTH realized profits coincided with Bitcoin’s peak. By contrast, in the 2018–2019 bear market, profit realization slowed dramatically, while losses surfaced, reflecting the market bottom.

A similar pattern was observed in 2021, though the profit realization was more gradual, suggesting that selling pressure was spread across the market rather than concentrated in short bursts.

When Bitcoin entered the 2022–2023 downturn, realized losses increased significantly as the asset fell into the $15,000–$20,000 range. That period was characterized by panic selling among longer-term holders.

In the current market, however, PelinayPA notes that while profit-taking is visible, it remains moderate compared with past peaks. This indicates that, although selling is occurring, it has not yet reached the levels typically associated with a cycle top.

What the Current Data Suggests for Bitcoin

The current phase of moderate profit realization suggests caution but does not confirm that Bitcoin has fully topped out. PelinayPA explained that:

Historically, sharp increases in LTH profit realization (large green spikes) align with bull market tops. Current selling (mid-2025) is measured and gradual, which implies BTC may still be in the late stages of a bull cycle. If LTH selling accelerates, it could mark the next peak.

This measured approach by long-term holders could mean that the market retains some room for additional upward movement, provided selling pressure does not intensify.

At the same time, the data highlights that a shift toward heavier profit-taking would be an important warning signal for traders and institutions watching the market closely.

On-chain analytics firms frequently point to these long-term holder behaviors as leading indicators. While Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below its record high, how these investors act in the coming weeks could set the tone for the next stage of the cycle.

For now, the data suggests that the rally has not yet reached conditions historically associated with a definitive top, but market participants are advised to watch profit realization closely.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

The latest Bitcoin bull run feels different.

Scratch that. Every bitcoin bull run feels different, as each cycle brings with it fresh narratives and new blood. But there’s one element that’s always been consistent throughout Bitcoin’s history, and that’s retail interest in buying into freedom tech and f**k you money. Well, Bitcoin to the moon rallies, at least.

Retail is sitting this Bitcoin bull run out

Remember retail? Because all I hear is crickets…

Literally zero taxi drivers, no friends’ cousins twice-removed, or kindergarten teachers asking if it’s too late to buy. Despite some analysts’ conviction about Alt Season revving up, I haven’t even been asked about Fartcoin, Dogecoin, or Ripple, and I have a pretty good templated answer to the latter, if you’d like to borrow.

Anyway, the point here is this: retail is sitting this Bitcoin bull run out, and it can’t be because of a lack of awareness. This time it’s different. Somewhere between the Bitcoin ETFs, presidential pumps, and Larry Fink taking over at the WEF, retail decided this game was no longer for them.

Dare I say it? Bitcoin’s just no fun anymore, or maybe retail got so badly burned last time around they finally learned not to play with fire. No one’s even casually searching for news: Google Trends for Bitcoin isn’t even grazing a mild peak next to Japanese walking and Labubu dolls.

That no one uses Google to search for anything anymore could arguably be a factor in this, but still, the silence from distant relatives and service workers is palpable.

100 days over $100K

You would hardly even notice that the number-one crypto has spent 100 consecutive days above $100k; a psychological feat, a generational inflection point. Each time Bitcoin has leapfrogged a major round number ($100, $1,000, $10,000), it has ushered in a new era of adoption, investment, and hockey-stick price action.

Yet, this time around, nobody cares.

Not only is Bitcoin sustaining celestial highs and carving out new all-time tops, but its technical backbone is strengthening. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average crossed above $100,000, a powerful signal for traders and long-term holders alike.

In every Bitcoin bull run, breaking and holding above historic resistance on both price and moving averages has preceded periods of continued momentum. But retail is nowhere to be found.

This cycle has even flushed out some of the longest-standing Bitcoin whales, making way for the same corrosive institutions that Bitcoin was meant to abhor.

Crypto in your 401k

2025 has also seen a quantum shift in retirement planning with Bitcoin and other cryptos being legally allowed in mainstream retirement accounts, opening direct access for tens of millions of Americans to accumulate hard money for their futures.

But retail couldn’t care less.

They’ve packed their bags all the way to the virtual Bahamas and said “Let’s sit this one out.” And while Bitcoin has arguably morphed from a speculative trade to a staple of retirement portfolios and institutional diversification, retail’s absence feels incredibly sad.