Bitcoin039s – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Fri, 12 Sep 2025 05:21:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.10 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Bitcoin039s – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Crypto Market Prediction: XRP's Massive $3 Test in 24 Hours, Shiba Inu (SHIB) Destroyed Bears at $0.000013, Bitcoin's (BTC) Key $150,000 Rally Chances https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-market-prediction-xrps-massive-3-test-in-24-hours-shiba-inu-shib-destroyed-bears-at-0-000013-bitcoins-btc-key-150000-rally-chances/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-market-prediction-xrps-massive-3-test-in-24-hours-shiba-inu-shib-destroyed-bears-at-0-000013-bitcoins-btc-key-150000-rally-chances/#respond Fri, 12 Sep 2025 05:21:47 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-market-prediction-xrps-massive-3-test-in-24-hours-shiba-inu-shib-destroyed-bears-at-0-000013-bitcoins-btc-key-150000-rally-chances/

While the market had a decent chance for a solid recovery, which we highlighted in our previous crypto market prediction, we are seeing signs that hint at the problematic state of the current rally. However, in the case where Bitcoin breaks through around $115,000, the acceleration would be imminent even on Sept. 12.

Shiba Inu’s bullish approach

Shiba Inu is stabilizing around $0.000013, and it is starting to exhibit technical dominance. SHIB is now taking back key moving averages after months of sideways consolidation and unsuccessful breakout attempts, setting itself up for possible growth in the near future.

SHIB has successfully broken through its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart, a technical milestone that frequently denotes a change in momentum from bearish to bullish. Throughout SHIB’s downward trend, the 50 EMA has continuously served as resistance, making this move noteworthy. Traders are starting to see this as a structural shift in market sentiment, now that the token is trading above it.

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SHIB/USDT Chart by TradingView

With rising volume and a strengthening Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently hovering just below overbought levels, the current price action indicates that SHIB is beginning to form a gradual uptrend. This shows that, although there are no immediate signs of exhaustion, buying interest is growing.

The next resistance levels to keep an eye on, if momentum keeps up, are the 200-day EMA at about $0.000014, and the $0.000015 zone, which has historically been a region with a lot of liquidity.

Looking at it more broadly, SHIB’s dominance is psychological as well as technical. Retaining price stability above the $0.000013 threshold boosts holders’ confidence, which lowers panic-selling and promotes accumulation. Given its ability to withstand market volatility, the token is becoming more and more significant in the meme-coin ecosystem, where it is still vying for market share with Dogecoin.

But caution is still required. Even though the 50 EMA breakthrough is a positive sign, SHIB still has to contend with longer-term resistance lines that might halt its upward trend if market sentiment declines. Investors ought to keep an eye on SHIB’s ability to maintain its position above the 50 EMA and progressively test higher moving averages.

XRP approaches key level

A critical test that could determine XRP’s short-term course is approaching at $3.00. As momentum builds toward a potential breakout attempt within the next day, the asset has been consolidating below a descending trendline. Just below the crucial psychological and technical barrier at $3.00, XRP is currently trading at about $2.99 on the daily chart.

Bullish sentiment has been strengthened by the recent rally, which has been bolstered by robust buying volume and a recovery above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. The 200-day EMA and the descending resistance trendline, however, are convergent around the $3 area, making it a difficult obstacle to overcome.

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In the short term, if XRP is able to break through $3 with convincing volume, it may lead to a surge of buying momentum that pushes the asset toward $3.30 to $3.50. This would confirm the bullish outlook for the upcoming weeks by clearly reversing the trend from its most recent corrective phase.

But if $3 is not broken, there may be rejection and a decline toward $2.80 or even $2.70, where the 100-day EMA offers support. This situation would prolong the consolidation phase by indicating that bulls are not yet powerful enough to overcome resistance.

The next day is important for investors. Rejection could result in another period of range-bound trading, while a confirmed breakout above $3 would suggest the possible beginning of a larger rally. Increased volume and momentum shifts around the $3 mark are indicators that traders should keep an eye out for, because they will shed light on XRP’s immediate trajectory.

Bitcoin’s steady rise

Bitcoin is stabilizing close to the $114,000 mark, laying the groundwork for what may be a rally toward the much-awaited $150,000 mark.

Bitcoin has successfully surpassed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is frequently regarded as a turning point for momentum, following weeks of consolidation and testing lower supports. During corrective phases of recent market cycles, the 50 EMA has proven to be a dependable resistance barrier. Bitcoin’s recovery of this level suggests that there may be a change from short-term pessimism to fresh bullish sentiment. Because the 50 EMA breakout has historically preceded robust price recoveries, traders frequently see this as the first confirmation of a structural rebound.

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Buying activity is steadily rising, and volume patterns are supporting the breakout. Although it is still below overbought levels, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising at the same time, suggesting that there is still potential for more upside without any immediate signs of exhaustion. If momentum continues, the next crucial resistance levels are located between $118,000 and $120,000, which is where liquidity has traditionally gathered.

Generally, the market is looking positive, but numerous reversal signals are there, so becoming euphoric too early is certainly not the call here. Staying put at around local resistance and awaiting breakthroughs on altcoins would be the only sign of a continuation at around this level.

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Bitcoin's Key Virtue Named by Tether CEO Ardoino https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-key-virtue-named-by-tether-ceo-ardoino/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-key-virtue-named-by-tether-ceo-ardoino/#respond Mon, 11 Aug 2025 14:12:07 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-key-virtue-named-by-tether-ceo-ardoino/
  • Ardoino praises Bitcoin as it top $122,000
  • Bitcoin holds well amid coming stock market crash: Kiyosaki

Paolo Ardoino, the chief executive officer at stablecoin giant Tether, has taken to his account on social media giant X (formerly known as Twitter) to talk Bitcoin with the vast crypto community.

In particular, he gave them food for thought by revealing one of Bitcoin’s key virtues.

Ardoino praises Bitcoin as it top $122,000

In his recent tweet, the CEO of Tether praised Bitcoin, stating that BTC means stability and certainty in an unstable market and economic environment.

“Bitcoin is certainty,” the Tether CEO tweeted.

Over the weekend, the world’s largest cryptocurrency demonstrated impressive price growth, adding roughly 5% and rising from $116,450 to slightly above the $122,000 mark. The surge took place after U.S. President Trump signed an executive order, allowing 401(k) retirement funds to expand their investments to risky assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.

By now, BTC is down 1.84% from that local peak and is changing hands at $119,930.

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Bitcoin holds well amid coming stock market crash: Kiyosaki

Financial guru Robert Kiyosaki, known for his bestselling book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has once again published a warning, predicting an upcoming “massive [stock market] crash.”

He has been making such a prediction particularly frequently this year, promising that when stocks and bonds crash, it will bring “good news” for those who hold Bitcoin, gold and silver. This is precisely what he said in his recently posted tweet.

However, even if Bitcoin crashes, he has tweeted several times, this will be great news as well because BTC will get cheaper, and he said that then he would only buy more of it.

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What Bitcoin's Velocity Says About Its Future https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-bitcoins-velocity-says-about-its-future/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-bitcoins-velocity-says-about-its-future/#respond Sat, 02 Aug 2025 08:43:26 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-bitcoins-velocity-says-about-its-future/

Bitcoin’s on-chain velocity—how often coins move—is at decade lows. To some, that’s a red flag: has Bitcoin lost momentum? Is it still being used?

In fact, falling velocity may be the clearest signal yet that Bitcoin is maturing, not stagnating. Instead of circulating like cash, Bitcoin is increasingly being held like gold.

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A Shift in Function

In traditional economics, velocity refers to how often money changes hands; it’s a proxy for economic activity. For Bitcoin, it tracks how frequently BTC is transacted on-chain. In Bitcoin’s early days, coins moved frequently as traders, early adopters, and enthusiasts tested its use cases. During major bull runs, like those in 2013, 2017, and 2021, transaction activity spiked, with BTC flowing quickly between wallets and exchanges.

Today, that has changed. More than 70% of BTC hasn’t moved in over a year. Transactional churn has slowed. At face value, this could seem like declining usage. But it reflects something else: conviction. Bitcoin is being treated as a long-term asset, not just a short-term currency. And that shift is driven largely by institutions.

Institutional Adoption Locks Up Supply

Since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, institutional holdings have soared. As of mid-2025, spot ETFs hold over 1.298 million BTC, approximately 6.2% of total circulating supply. When including corporate treasuries, private companies, and investment funds, total institutional holdings approach 2.55 million BTC around 12.8% of all Bitcoin in circulation. These assets remain largely static, stored in cold wallets as part of long-term strategies. Firms like Strategy and Tesla are not spending their Bitcoin; they’re holding it as a strategic reserve.

That’s bullish for scarcity and price. But it also lowers velocity: fewer coins circulating, fewer transactions happening on-chain.

Off-Chain Usage Is Rising and Harder to See

It’s important to note that on-chain velocity doesn’t capture all of Bitcoin’s economic activity.

On-chain velocity only tells part of the story. Increasingly, Bitcoin’s real economic activity is happening off the base layer, and outside traditional measurements.

Take the Lightning Network, THE Bitcoin’s Layer-2 scaling solution which enables fast, low-cost payments that bypass the main chain entirely. From streaming micropayments to cross-border remittances, Lightning makes bitcoin usable in everyday scenarios, but its transactions don’t appear in velocity metrics. As of mid-2025, public Lightning capacity surpassed 5,000 BTC, reflecting a nearly 400% increase since 2020. Private channel growth and institutional experimentation suggest the real number is much higher.

Similarly, Wrapped Bitcoin

is enabling BTC to circulate across Ethereum and other chains, fueling DeFi protocols and tokenized finance. In the first half of 2025 alone, WBTC supply grew by 34%, a clear signal that bitcoin is being deployed, not dormant.

And then there’s custody: institutional wallets, ETF cold storage, and multisig treasury tools allow firms to hold BTC securely, but often without moving it. These coins may be economically significant, yet they contribute nothing to on-chain velocity.

In short, Bitcoin is likely more active than it appears, it’s just happening outside traditional velocity metrics. Its utility is shifting to new layers and platforms- payment rails, smart contract systems, yield strategies—none of which register in traditional velocity models. As Bitcoin evolves into a multi-layer monetary system, we may need new ways to measure its momentum. Falling on-chain velocity doesn’t necessarily mean usage is slowing. In fact, it might just mean we’re looking in the wrong place.

The Trade-Off Behind Low Velocity

While slow velocity reflects conviction and long-term holding, it also presents a challenge. Fewer on-chain transactions mean fewer fees for miners: a growing concern after the 2024 halving, which cut block rewards in half. Bitcoin’s long-term security model depends on a healthy fee market, which in turn relies on consistent economic activity.

There’s also the question of perception. A network where coins rarely move can start to resemble a static vault rather than a dynamic marketplace. That may strengthen the “digital gold” thesis but weakens the vision of bitcoin as usable money.

This is the core design tension: Bitcoin aims to be both a store of value (digital gold) and a medium of exchange (peer to peer cash) . But those roles don’t always align. Velocity is the measure of that push and pull, this ongoing struggle between preservation and utility, and how Bitcoin navigates it will shape not just usage patterns, but its role in the broader financial system.

A Sign of Maturity

In the end, falling velocity doesn’t mean Bitcoin is being used less. It means it’s being used differently. As Bitcoin gains value, people are more inclined to save it than spend it. As adoption grows, infrastructure moves off-chain. And as institutions enter, their strategies center on preservation, not circulation. The Bitcoin network is evolving. Velocity isn’t vanishing; it’s going silent, reshaped by a changing user base and new layers of economic activity.

If velocity ticks up again, it could mark a resurgence of transactional use; more spending, more movement, more retail involvement. If it stays low, it suggests Bitcoin’s role as macro collateral is taking firm root. Either way, velocity offers a window into Bitcoin’s future. Not as a coin to spend, but as an asset to build on.

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Bitcoin's 'Mempool' Nearly Empty as Prices Trade Near Lifetime Highs https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-mempool-nearly-empty-as-prices-trade-near-lifetime-highs/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-mempool-nearly-empty-as-prices-trade-near-lifetime-highs/#respond Sun, 06 Jul 2025 15:59:49 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-mempool-nearly-empty-as-prices-trade-near-lifetime-highs/

The Bitcoin blockchain lacks meaningful on-chain activity, even as its native token, bitcoin

, trades near a record per-unit price. That’s according to mempool – a holding area for unconfirmed blockchain transactions waiting to be included in a block by miners.

On Satuday, the mempool had just 5,000 odd transactions awaiting inclusion, with the tally rising to 15,000 at press time, still a far cry from 150,000 when BTC’s price first rose above $100,000 in late 2024, according to data source Blockchain.com.

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Since March this year, the tally has oscillated between $3,000 and $30,000, indicating anaemic demand for the network despite BTC establishing a foothold above $100,000.

“Bitcoin’s mempool (queue of transactions waiting to be processed) is almost completely empty. The percentage of miner revenue coming from fees (instead of inflation) is down to a fraction of a percent,” Joël Valenzuela, director of marketing and business development, said on X.

“Simply put, almost all of Bitcoin’s actual users have gone away. At all-time price highs, too!” Valenzuela added, calling the situation a major crisis where the network goes bankrupt or becomes “completely custodial asset run by governments and institutions.”

BTC's mempool. (Blockchain.com)

BTC’s mempool. (Blockchain.com)

According to Joao Wedson, CEO and founder of crypto data analysis platform Alphractal, the idle mempool is a sign of missing retail participation in the market.

“When Mempool transactions begin to rise again, it’s a clear sign that retail is back — because the growing backlog reflects increased demand for using the network,” Wedson said.

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Chart of the Week: Bitcoin's Summer Lull Still Offers 'Inexpensive' Trading Opportunity https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chart-of-the-week-bitcoins-summer-lull-still-offers-inexpensive-trading-opportunity/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chart-of-the-week-bitcoins-summer-lull-still-offers-inexpensive-trading-opportunity/#respond Sun, 15 Jun 2025 17:25:44 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chart-of-the-week-bitcoins-summer-lull-still-offers-inexpensive-trading-opportunity/

“Hey bitcoin, Do Something!”

The viral meme — starring a stick figure poking the ground and depicting a need for reaction — might just sum up the current scene at digital assets trading desks during the slow, early summer days.

Sure, bitcoin

just hit new fresh highs and is still trading above $100,000, but the P&L is diminishing daily for short-term volatility chasers.

“Bitcoin’s volatility has continued to trend lower, both in realized and implied measures, even as the asset reaches new all-time highs. This decline in volatility is particularly notable amid historically high price levels,” said NYDIG Research in a recent note shared with CoinDesk.

Bitcoin's implied volatility trending lower. (NYDIG Research)

Bitcoin’s implied volatility trending lower. (NYDIG Research)

And despite macro and geopolitical headwinds hitting traditional assets hard, bitcoin has gone into a chill summer vibe.

Bitcoin's realized volatility is also declining. (NYDIG Research)

Bitcoin’s realized volatility is also declining. (NYDIG Research)

“With the market now entering the typically quieter summer months, this downtrend may well persist in the near term,” NYDIG added.

Of course, this is perhaps a positive trend for bitcoin as it depicts a more maturing market and potentially speaks to its original promise of “store of value,” as the price reaches fresh new highs.

However, traders love volatility, as the greater the movement, the bigger the P&L opportunities are. While fresh record highs might be great for long-term HODLers, for short-term traders, those juicy breakouts are getting hard to make money on.

Why the calm?

So what’s driving these calm price actions?

NYDIG is chalking it up to increased demand from bitcoin treasury companies, which seem to be popping up everywhere, and a rise in sophisticated trading strategies, such as options overwriting, as well as other forms of volatility selling.

The market is getting more professional, and unless we see some true Black Swan events (FTX, anyone?) for crypto, prices will continue to remain calm.

The opportunity

But all is not lost — there are always opportunities to make money even when it’s not as lucrative as it seems.

“The decline in volatility has made both upside exposure through calls and downside protection via puts relatively inexpensive,” said NYDIG.

Translation: Hedging and catalyst-driven plays are where the money might be in this market. If one thinks something big is coming, this is perhaps the time to position with directional bets. And there are a few big ones coming.

“For traders anticipating market-moving catalysts, such as the SEC’s decision on the GDLC conversion (July 2), the conclusion of the 90-day tariff suspension (July 8), or the Crypto Working Group’s findings deadline (July 22), this presents a cost-effective opportunity to position for directional moves,” said NYDIG.

So bitcoin’s summer lull might not be a total dead zone; rather, it’s a setup for those who are willing to play the patience game and hedge accordingly to trade potential market-moving events.

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Bearish Bets on Strategy Look Alluring, Says 10X Research as MSTR Diverges From Bitcoin's Bull Run https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bearish-bets-on-strategy-look-alluring-says-10x-research-as-mstr-diverges-from-bitcoins-bull-run/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bearish-bets-on-strategy-look-alluring-says-10x-research-as-mstr-diverges-from-bitcoins-bull-run/#respond Mon, 26 May 2025 08:30:10 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bearish-bets-on-strategy-look-alluring-says-10x-research-as-mstr-diverges-from-bitcoins-bull-run/

10x Research, led by Markus Thielen, likes bearish options bets on Strategy (MSTR) as the Nasdaq-listed bitcoin

holder’s share price diverges from the upward trending BTC price.

In a report sent to clients Friday, Thielen recommended a bear put spread on MSTR, involving a long position in the $370 put option and a short position in the $300 put, both expiring on June 27.

This strategy will yield maximum profit if MSTR drops to $300 or lower by June 27, representing a bearish bet on the stock price. Put option insures the buyer against potential price drops in return for a small upfront premium payment.

The maximum loss for the put spread buyers if MSTR’s price embarks on a new uptrend is limited to the initial cost of the strategy, which was $13.89 on Friday.

MSTR, however, fell 7% to $369 on Friday, according to data source TradingView. MicroStrategy holds 576,230 BTC, the largest for any publicly-listed company, having steadily accumulated coins since August 2020 through debt financing.

Over the years, it has emerged as a preferred instrument for institutions looking to take exposure to BTC without having to actually own the cryptocurrency.

The stock price has recently diverged from the upward-trending BTC price, raising alarm bells on crypto social media.

While BTC hit a record high of over $110K last week, MSTR’s rise stalled at around $440, falling well short of its lifetime peak of $543 reached in November.

“This trade captures the growing disconnect between Bitcoin’s strength and MicroStrategy’s fading momentum and volatility. Despite Bitcoin reaching all-time highs, MSTR remains significantly below its peak, suggesting investor enthusiasm is waning,” Thielen said, explaining the bear put spread.

Thielen correctly predicted BTC’s recent rise into six figures.

MSTR vs BTC (TradingView/CoinDesk)

MSTR vs BTC (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Note that a similar divergence between MSTR and bitcoin marked BTC’s November 2021 top.

Past data does not guarantee future results, and the latest divergence between MSTR and BTC does not necessarily mean that bitcoin’s bull run is over.

That said, its does suggest waning enthusiasm about BTC among tradfi investors. In addition, the MSTR bear put spread could offer a hedge against a potential weakness in BTC.

“Bitcoin is breaking records, but Strategy is stalling—and that divergence matters. Retail is still chasing the dream, unaware that the right-tail upside may be gone. This is where the game changes: when the middleman runs out of premium and the engine stalls,” Thielen said.

“Buying a Strategy put spread can be profitable, but it is also an effective hedge against a long Bitcoin position,” Thielen added.

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Bitcoin's Price Surge to $104K Liquidates Nearly $400M in Bearish BTC Bets, Opening Doors to Further Gains https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-price-surge-to-104k-liquidates-nearly-400m-in-bearish-btc-bets-opening-doors-to-further-gains/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-price-surge-to-104k-liquidates-nearly-400m-in-bearish-btc-bets-opening-doors-to-further-gains/#respond Fri, 09 May 2025 04:43:29 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-price-surge-to-104k-liquidates-nearly-400m-in-bearish-btc-bets-opening-doors-to-further-gains/

Bitcoin’s rapid price rally has caught traders off guard, triggering large liquidations of bearish short positions.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value has risen over 3% to $102,500 in the past 24 hours, with prices topping $104,000 at one point, the highest since Jan. 31. The bullish move came as President Donald Trump announced a comprehensive trade deal with the U.K. and the cumulative inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit a record high above $40 billion.

The broader market rallied as well, with the total market cap of all coins excluding BTC surging by 10% to $1.14 trillion, the highest since March 6, according to data source TradingView.

That has led to substantial liquidations of bearish short positions, or leveraged plays aimed at profiting from price losses. A position is liquidated or forced closed when the trader’s account balance falls below the required margin level, often due to adverse price movements. This leads the exchange to close the position to prevent further losses automatically.

Nearly $400 million in BTC short positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours—marking the highest single-day total since at least November, according to Coinglass. Meanwhile, $22 million in long positions were also wiped out.

This significant imbalance indicates that leverage was heavily tilted towards the bearish side, and the rapid liquidation of shorts suggests there could be more upside potential for the market ahead.

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The Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Signals a Broader Acceptance of Bitcoin's ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-market-reaction-to-trumps-tariffs-signals-a-broader-acceptance-of-bitcoins-digital-gold-narrative/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-market-reaction-to-trumps-tariffs-signals-a-broader-acceptance-of-bitcoins-digital-gold-narrative/#respond Wed, 07 May 2025 16:23:10 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-market-reaction-to-trumps-tariffs-signals-a-broader-acceptance-of-bitcoins-digital-gold-narrative/

In financial markets, making assumptions based on short-term observations is a fool’s errand, as significant trends develop over months and years, not days or weeks. But as investors evaluate bitcoin’s role in their portfolios, the events of April are worth analyzing in order to understand the asset’s emerging reputation as a store of value.

Backdrop of volatility

The turbulence sparked by President Trump’s tariffs announcement on April 2 sent stock prices plummeting the following day, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 falling 4.8% and 5.4%, respectively. Bitcoin followed suit as the VIX Volatility Index hit levels not seen since the early days of COVID and fears of retaliatory trade measures prevailed.

However, bitcoin’s price began to recover sharply within days of the announcement, causing its correlation with both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 to fall below 0.50, before those correlations rose again as the April 9 pause on tariffs brought back “risk-on” mode.

Bitcoin’s correlations to traditional markets in April

Chart: Bitcoin’s correlations to traditional markets in April

Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (April 01, 2025 to April 30, 2025). 30-day rolling correlations (considering only workdays) between bitcoin (represented by the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Index) and TradFi indices.

This short-term observation matters because it supports the changing nature of how investors perceive bitcoin. While some still categorize bitcoin as a high-beta “risk-on” asset, institutional sentiment is beginning to reflect a more nuanced understanding. Bitcoin recovered faster than the S&P 500 in the 60 days that followed the COVID outbreak, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. banking crisis in 2023, events in which it demonstrated resilience and a profile increasingly aligned with that of gold during stress.

These periods of decoupling establish a pattern where bitcoin displays its antifragile properties, allowing allocators to protect capital during systemic events, while still outpacing the performance of stocks, bonds and gold over the long haul.

Bitcoin vs. traditional assets, 5-year returns

Chart: Bitcoin vs. traditional assets, 5-year returns

Source: CaseBitcoin, Return data from May 1, 2020 to April 30, 2025 (CaseBitcoin.com)

The path to digital gold

Maybe more compelling than bitcoin’s longer-term returns are the long-term portfolio effects. Even a small allocation to bitcoin within a traditional 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would have improved risk-adjusted returns in 98% of rolling three-year periods over the last decade. And these risk-adjusted returns are markedly higher over longer time frames, suggesting that bitcoin’s volatility from positive returns more than counterbalances short-term drawdowns.

It might still be premature to claim that bitcoin has been universally accepted as “digital gold,” but that narrative, supported by its response to geopolitical events, is gaining momentum. The combination of bitcoin’s fixed supply, liquidity, accessibility and immunity to central bank interference gives it properties no traditional asset can replicate. This should be appealing to any investor, large or small, in search of portfolio diversification and long-term wealth preservation.

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Is Bitcoin's future in Strategy’s hands? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoins-future-in-strategys-hands/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoins-future-in-strategys-hands/#respond Tue, 29 Apr 2025 18:13:21 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoins-future-in-strategys-hands/

Plus: Your next favorite radio host is actually AI

Welcome

GM. We juiced the news, sliced the charts, and garnished it with just enough sarcasm to keep it digestible. Sip responsibly.

🟠 Is Strategy gonna control Bitcoin?

🍋 News drops: the reason celebrities avoid Bitcoin, AI radio host + more

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🍍 Market flavor today

Not much has changed since we last caught up on Friday – the Fear and Greed Index has been switching between Neutral and Greed, and Bitcoin’s been hanging out in the $92K-$96K range.

Basically, things remain pretty chill.

There are a few reasons for the chill vibes:

  • US-China trade tensions cooled off a little after Donald Trump said tariffs on Chinese goods – currently at 145% – could be reduced if a trade deal is reached;

  • It was a big week for BTC ETFs – they had over $3B in inflows;

  • Also helping: the Fed eased up on strict crypto rules, making it easier for Wall Street firms to invest in crypto;

  • And let’s not forget – public companies keep buying (Strategy bought $1.42B worth of BTC just yesterday).

Cat thumbs up

But – and there’s always a but – this week’s loaded with US macroeconomic reports, and they could mess with the market’s chill mood. Here’s what’s on the menu:

Today: CB Consumer Confidence numbers (basically asking, “Hey, how’s everyone feeling about life right now?”) and March JOLTs Job data (aka, “Were there actually jobs to be had in March?”).

Tomorrow: Q1 2025 GDP numbers (did the economy grow in the first months of 2025?) and March PCE Inflation data (how much more painful it got to buy everyday stuff – a stat the Fed loves).

Friday: April Jobs Report (tracking how many jobs got added, unemployment rates, how much people are getting paid, and how many hours they’re working).

Whenever we get a week stuffed with data like this, traders usually freak out a little – either they reduce risk or make bigger bets, depending on how the numbers turn out.

And since markets have already been a bit of a hot mess this April, it’s looking way more likely that everyone will play it safe.

In other words: expect Bitcoin to stay in the same ole chill range for a while.

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🥝 Memecoin harvest

Their community? Two Discord mods and a dream. Their gains? Disrespectful.

Data as of 06:00 AM EST.

Check out these memecoins and plenty more here.

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Most people see Bitcoin’s supply as untouchable – 21 million coins, predictable halvings every four years. No one can mess with that.

… Well, about that….

Adam Livingston, author of The Bitcoin Age and The Great Harvest, says that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is rewriting Bitcoin’s scarcity.

Michael Saylor and BTC

After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin miners are producing about 450 new BTC every day – around 13.5K BTC each month.

But Strategy has been soaking up more and more of that monthly supply.

(Like we mentioned in today’s market update, they bought over 15K just yesterday – more than a whole month’s worth of mining output.)

If they keep buying 30%, 40%, or even 50%+ of all newly mined Bitcoin, they’re artificially squeezing the available supply – basically, making it feel like it already got cut in half without waiting for the next real halving.

Livingston calls this a “synthetic halving” – not triggered by the Bitcoin protocol, but by relentless corporate buying.

And he says this changes a lot:

  • Bitcoin could get way more expensive, faster than anyone expects;

  • Lending Bitcoin would cost more;

  • Borrowing Bitcoin becomes something only sovereign wealth funds, mega-corporations, or serious institutions can afford.

Livingston argues that Strategy could control the bottleneck and set the global cost of Bitcoin capital – meaning everyone could be paying higher rates simply because Saylor owns the float. Instead of Bitcoin’s natural market dynamics setting prices, a single corporate superpower would influence it through strategic hoarding.

Looking at phone shocked

Now, to be fair: he’s definitely right that Strategy is eating up supply like crazy, and it does feel a lot like a halving.

But saying they’ll fully control the price of Bitcoin feels like a bit of a reach.

They aren’t changing the Bitcoin code. Miners are still adding new coins at the same pace. Plus, Strategy’s spending spree depends on cheap debt, good markets, and no major competitors stepping in – none of which are guaranteed forever.

Also, they’re funding a lot of this buying with debt and equity dilution, which isn’t something you can do endlessly, especially if Bitcoin’s price ever tanks.

Long-term, it’s unlikely that one company ends up completely dominating Bitcoin.

ETFs, countries, miners, DeFi apps, and corporate treasuries are all buying BTC too. Even if Strategy is a whale now, their influence could get diluted over time as Bitcoin adoption grows globally.

That said, Livingston’s main point still hits hard: Bitcoin scarcity isn’t just about the blockchain anymore. It’s about who has the balance sheet to control the float.

And right now, no one’s swinging a bigger hammer than Michael Saylor.

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🍋 News drops

🤔 Why aren’t celebs getting into Bitcoin? TJ Miller says they’re just too lazy to learn about it.

🤝 Loopscale, a DeFi platform, is in talks with the hackers who stole from them. The hackers took about 5.7M USDC and 1.2K SOL from two of their vaults – and now they want 20% of it as a bounty to return the rest.

✉ Coinbase is asking the US Office of Government Ethics to scrap a rule that blocks SEC staff from owning or using crypto. Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal said, “To regulate technology, you need to understand it. To understand technology, you need to use it.”

🗣 Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long is calling out the Fed. She said that while they canceled four old guidelines, they left one big one: banks still can’t work directly with crypto or create stablecoins on open blockchains. Instead, the Fed favors stablecoins made by big banks in private systems.

🎙 Your fave radio host might actually be AI… and if you listen to Thy from CADA radio in Sydney, it’s not a “maybe” – she is AI.

🎉 Changelly is throwing a 10-year anniversary party with a $100K+ prize pool! Open the Changelly app, sign up or log in, get a free spin (plus another if you make a transaction), and see what you won.*

*Sponsored

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🍌 Juicy memes

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Chart of the Week: Tariff Carnage Starting to Fulfill Bitcoin's 'Store of Value' Promise https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chart-of-the-week-tariff-carnage-starting-to-fulfill-bitcoins-store-of-value-promise/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chart-of-the-week-tariff-carnage-starting-to-fulfill-bitcoins-store-of-value-promise/#respond Sun, 27 Apr 2025 15:51:36 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chart-of-the-week-tariff-carnage-starting-to-fulfill-bitcoins-store-of-value-promise/

April has been a month of extreme volatility and tumultuous times for traders.

From conflicting headlines about President Donald Trump’s tariffs against other nations to total confusion about which assets to seek shelter in, it has been one for the record books.

Amid all the confusion, when traditional “haven assets” failed to act as safe places to park money, one bright spot emerged that might have surprised some market participants: bitcoin.

“Historically, cash (the US dollar), bonds (US Treasuries), the Swiss Franc, and gold have fulfilled that role [safe haven], with bitcoin edging in on some of that territory,” said NYDIG Research in a note.

Safe haven asset performance (NYDIG Research)

Safe haven asset performance (NYDIG Research)

NYDIG’s data showed that while gold and Swiss Franc had been consistent safe-haven winners, since ‘Liberation Day’—when President Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes on April 2, kicking off extreme volatility in the market—bitcoin has been added to the list.

“Bitcoin has acted less like a liquid levered version of levered US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is,” NYDIG wrote.

Zooming out, it seems that as the “sell America” trade gains momentum, investors are taking notice of bitcoin and the original promise of the biggest cryptocurrency.

“Though the connection is still tentative, bitcoin appears to be fulfilling its original promise as a non-sovereign store of value, designed to thrive in times like these,” NYDIG added.

Read more: Gold and Bonds’ Safe Haven Allure May be Fading With Bitcoin Emergence

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