January 20th Bitfinex alpha | The market will rebound, but beware of “sell” transactions

Bitcoin made an astounding recovery last week, immersing its lowest price of $89,698, above $100,000. The recovery reached a high of $105,800. This 18.2% peak-to-trough bounce highlights relative strength compared to Bitcoin stocks, with BTC increasing the week by 10%.

BTC/USD 4H chart showing the highest ever last week

The DIP, below $90,000, caused a major liquidation, marking $818 million on January 13th, including a long position of $592 million. Short-term holders (STHs), with an average cost base of $88,400, played a key role in protecting prices during this revision. Historically, the STH cost base has served as a reliable level of support, and last week’s trough closely aligned with this level, causing a rebound. However, if you fall below the STH cost base, it can cause stress and further promote sellouts.

This recovery was driven primarily by aggressive spot purchases, as seen in the sharp rise in the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta. This metric showed significant candidate purchasing pressure, particularly from US-based exchanges. Purchasing patterns reflect previous activities related to micro-strategic and ETF purchases, further strengthening the view that they remain in institutional demand.

However, the spot buying pressure seen last week can take some time for bids to be replenished, and could lead to short pullbacks before the upward momentum resumes. Bitcoin’s resilience and sustained demand are well positioned for its continued strength over the medium term.

Inflation showed a slight increase in December, with CPI rising 2.9% on an annual basis, driven primarily by a surge in energy prices. Core inflation exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but stabilizing import prices and growth in the lower than expected producer price index provide optimism to ease inflationary pressures. Consumer spending was strong, with retail sales rising by 3.9% year-on-year in December, strengthened by wage growth and a strong labor market. But uncertainty looms as Trump’s proposed tariffs increase the costs of key commodities, disproportionately affecting low-income households and disrupt recent advances in inflation control. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears cautious, informing them of smaller rate cuts in 2025 to balance inflation concerns with economic growth. Despite these headwinds, the resilience of consumer activity and employment strength provides a solid foundation despite the risks from tariff policies, labor supply constraints, and seasonal spending fluctuations can pose important challenges.

Last week in Crypto News, Trump launched Memecoin$Trump on the Solana blockchain, stirring both enthusiasm and skepticism, which quickly reached a $15 billion valuation, and managed to earn some important benefits. It is sold as a symbol of support for Trump’s ideals rather than investment, but concerns about centralization and transparency have potential impacts on regulatory scrutiny and political funding. In the meantime, institutions continue to look for ways to make crypto-related assets available to traditional financial investors, with filings submitted to Spot Litecoin ETF proposed by Onchain Economy ETF, focusing on digital asset infrastructure. These filings reflect the wider push for mainstream crypto adoption following the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs. Onchain Economy ETF aims to provide exposure to the companies that shape the blockchain economy, offering investors a diverse entry point amid growing interest in the sector.

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May 28th Bitfinex alpha | Beware of future profits!

After a 32% drop from the historic peak in January, BTC rose by more than 50%, reaching a new high of 111.880 before entering the healthy rest phase. The strong landing of cash flows from ETF funds, vibrant participation in the spot market, and positive growth in net capital have created a sustainable purchase wave, not just speculative heat. The psychology of macro risk has returned, but in US news, especially it could impose an import tax of up to 50% on European goods, but Bitcoin still exists as a steel warrior, absorbing profits and releasing excessive leverage without serious collapse. However, with such a large increase, it is becoming increasingly clear that it could appear in large profits in the current price area.

This epic recovery focuses on the increasingly evolutionary role of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a property that is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations motivated by beliefs that do not rely on the short-term feelings of small investors. In particular, Metaplanet accumulated $104 million in Bitcoin and strengthened the story of expanding support from high-level organizations and policies for digital assets by proposing crypto-friendly legislation in Michigan.

The potential for Bitcoin continues to remain above the basic costs of short-term holders (approximately $95,000). This will be an important factor in determining future trends. Short-term profits of over $11.4 billion have been implemented in the past month, which ensures short-term oversupply is manifested, but structural demand is equally strong. The power of ETF cash flow, low volatility, and premium rates in situ markets suggest that the market is slowly growing, and are ready for a new breakthrough when the macro situation becomes more clear. I might answer the question next week: Will Bitcoin’s final breakout be at a local peak or just a prelude to a stronger increase in the third quarter?

Meanwhile, the US economic situation is darker than ever before. Long-term bond yields skyrocketed, and the dollar weakened mid-credit rating, escalating public debt and taxpayer risks shaking investors’ trust. Bond yields for bonds at age 10 and 30 years old exceeded 4.5% and 5%, reflecting skepticism about fiscal discipline and risk of escalating inflation.

The 30y/10y harvest curve – often seen as a growth signal – reveals fears of long-term risk rather than optimism. As foreign demand decreases and Fed support for bond markets gradually declines, the market is priced at a new era with higher interest rates and more fluctuations. The bond market is no longer responding to each news line – it sends a strong message. The ways to value risk are fundamentally changing.

Last week there was both acceptance from the organization and the motives set forth to achieve key steps. Strategic listed companies, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific, have accumulated over 8,800 BTC, strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a strategic asset in the Ministry of Business and Treasury. In particular, the strategy currently holds more than 2.7% of total Bitcoin supply, indicating a trend for more and more companies that view BTC as a long-term reserve of economic instability.

On the application side, FIFA is focusing on building another blockchain on the Avalanche platform and ending relationships with older partners such as Algorand and Polygon. The new network is compatible with EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine), which makes digital collections easy for developers and fans to access, and hosts ways FIFA can expand Web3 ambitions.

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May 26th Bitfinex alpha | Beware that you will take profits

After a 32% drop from its all-time high in January, BTC has risen by more than 50%, reaching a new high of $111,880, and is now in a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF influx, spot market surges, and positive net recognition CAP growth contribute to structural purchases in the market rather than speculative excess. Even if macro risk aversion returns, with news that there is a possibility of 50% US tariffs on European imports, Bitcoin has gained excessive leverage and absorbed profits without major breakdowns. With such strong profits, taking profits is likely to increase at these levels.

This resilience focuses on the evolving role of Bitcoin as a macro-sensitive and conviction-driven asset trading in line with global liquidity flows rather than retail sentiment. In particular, Metaplanet’s $104 million Bitcoin accumulation, and Michigan’s proposed crypto-friendly law, further examine the narrative of increasing institutional and policy-level support for digital assets.

Going forward, Bitcoin’s ability to continue to consolidate approximately $95,000 above its short-term holder cost base remains important. Short-term supply overhangs are expected as short-term holder profits of more than $11.4 billion over the past month have been realized, but structural demand is also expected. ETF bid strength, low volatility, and spot premium all suggest mature markets poised for the final continuity when macro clarity is improved. The coming weeks could determine whether Bitcoin’s latest breakout was a local high or a more aggressive leg prelude in Q3.

In the meantime, the US is facing an increasing financial burden as the long-term Treasury department has caused a surge in growth and the dollar falls amid credit downgrades, debt rises and looming tariffs. Investor confidence has shaking, reflecting fiscal discipline and skepticism about inflation risk, yields on bonds over 4.5 and 5% over 10 and 30 years.

The 30Y/10Y, a growth signal, usually the sudden recovery curve, reflects fear of long-term risk, rather than optimism. As foreign demand is weakened and bond markets are helping to decline, the market is priced in a new era of higher rates and volatility. The bond market is no longer responding to headlines. It is a warning of structural changes in risk pricing.

Last week, both institutional recruitment and regulatory momentum went on in multiple ways. Publicly available Corporate Strategy, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific have integrated over 8,800 BTC, strengthening Bitcoin’s role as a strategic financial asset. The strategy currently holds more than 2.7% of the total supply of Bitcoin, highlighting the growth trends among companies dealing with BTC in an era of economic uncertainty. At the forefront of adoption, FIFA announced that it had built its own blockchain in the avalanche, shifting from its former partners Algorand and Polygon. The new EVM-compatible network will make digital collections easier for developers and fans to expand Web3’s ambitions to FIFA.

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