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Julia Smith

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Julia Smith

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Julia is an experienced editor with a passion for covering a wide variety of beats. She loves all things politics and regularly covers regulatory updates on emerging technology here for Crypto News.

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Last updated: 

July 21, 2025

The majority of Polymarket bettors are predicting that Bitcoin will hit at least $125,000 in value this month, a new poll on the decentralized prediction market shows.

Polymarket Bettors Back $125K Bitcoin Threshold

According to the poll, 34% of Polymarket bettors believe that Bitcoin will cross the $125,000 threshold by the end of July.

In contrast, just 11% of the poll’s participating bettors predict that the cryptocurrency will rally above $130,000 this month.

Meanwhile, just 3% and 1% of the decentralized prediction market’s bettors believe that Bitcoin will cross the $140,000 and $150,000 marks, respectively.

Crypto Legislation Comes Into Focus for Policy Proponents

News of the Polymarket users’ predictions comes just one week after Bitcoin reached its all-time high of over $123,000 during a pivotal moment for crypto legislation in the United States.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law during an afternoon bill signing at the White House.

“Let me say, the entire crypto community, for years you were mocked and dismissed and counted out,” Trump said. “You were counted out as little as a year and a half ago—but this signing is a massive validation.”

Republican Party officials dubbed the push ‘Crypto Week,’ and the House of Representatives was also able to advance the CLARITY Act and the Anti-CBDC Act despite a failed procedural vote on July 15.

Truth Social Bolsters Bitcoin Treasury Holdings

Truth Social parent organization, Trump Media and Technology Group Corp, announced on July 21 that the company had amassed over $2 billion in purchases in its Bitcoin Treasury, potentially bolstering bullish attitudes toward the cryptocurrency.

“These assets help ensure our Company’s financial freedom, help protect us against discrimination by financial institutions, and will create synergies with the utility token we’re planning to introduce across the Truth Social ecosphere,” Trump Media’s CEO and President Devin Nunes said.

As of Monday afternoon, Bitcoin is hovering around $116,000.

Prediction market data shows traders are wagering millions on the price of Bitcoin reaching levels above $120,000 in 2025.

On the decentralized platform Polymarket, a market asking what price Bitcoin will hit in 2025, has attracted over $15.5 million in volume. Traders assign a 75% probability that the asset will exceed $120,000 by the end of the year.

The data provides a quantifiable look at market conviction, translating sentiment into financially backed probabilities.

The platform indicates a 55% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $130,000 and a 33% chance of it breaking the $150,000 mark. More ambitious targets, such as $200,000, are given a 13% probability.

A separate market focused on the immediate term is more conservative; with over $3.5 million in volume, it assigns a 58% probability for Bitcoin to be above $115,000 by August 1, 2025, but only a 30% chance of it crossing $120,000 in the same period.

This activity is set against a backdrop of significant evolution for Polymarket itself. According to data from Dune Analytics, the platform’s user base and volume expanded during the 2024 U.S. election, driving monthly volume to a peak of $2.6 billion in November 2024.

In the months following the election, a new baseline of activity was established. Last month’s trading volume stood at $1.16 billion, a figure over nine times higher than the volume recorded in June last year.

The number of active traders, at 241,000 last month, was similarly more than seven times higher than the previous year. This suggests the platform retained a portion of the audience it acquired during the high-profile political event.

The composition of platform activity appears to be shifting. Since a peak of 455,000 active traders in January 2025, the number of participants has declined by 47%.

In contrast, platform volume has rebounded, growing 30% from April to June 2025. This divergence may point to a consolidation of activity among a smaller group of more heavily capitalized or higher-conviction traders.

The average volume per trader has recovered from a low of approximately $2,000 in February 2025 to around $4,800 in June 2025, which supports the idea that existing users are trading in larger sizes. Recent reports note the platform’s growth and its recent partnership with X, which Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan framed as the union of “the two top truth-seeking apps.”

While prediction markets offer a novel form of sentiment analysis, their forecasts reflect current, crowd-sourced beliefs and not certain outcomes.

The user base may not represent the broader financial world, and all markets carry inherent risks, including the potential for manipulation by actors with large amounts of capital. However, Polymarket outperformed almost all traditional polling methods during the U.S. 2025 election. Still, the regulatory environment for prediction markets also remains complex in various jurisdictions, such as the U.S. itself, even amid its latest $1 billion valuation.

Nonetheless, the substantial volume and clear directional probability on display provide a distinct, data-driven perspective on where active traders expect Bitcoin’s price to trend as of its press time price of $109,093.

Mentioned in this article

A new Polymarket poll shows that the majority of bettors believe that a 2025 recession will happen—just two days after the U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his controversial “Liberation Day” tariff plans on April 2.

Polymarket Bettors Predict Recession In 2025

According to the decentralized prediction market’s poll, 60% of the platform’s participating bettors believe that an economic recession will occur this year.

The surge in bettors’ belief of a probable recession this year is not insignificant, especially considering that the same figure was nine points lower just 24 hours prior.

When the poll was created in January, only 20% of the site’s users voted that a recession would most likely take place in 2025.

Donald Trump’s Tariff Policies Hit Markets

The startling percentage comes shortly after Trump announced steep tariffs on goods from virtually all countries.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far – both friend and foe alike,” Trump said during an April 2 policy unveiling at the White House Rose Garden.

“American steel workers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen – we have a lot of them here with us today – they really suffered gravely,” he continued.

The announcement has ignited chaos in the global marketplace, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting an estimated total of 3,700 points over the span of just two days.

The value of Bitcoin, however, was up by 2.6% to slightly above $84,000 on Friday despite having dropped below $82,000 as of yesterday.

Critics argue that Trump’s controversial tariff policies will negatively impact global trade and consumers as a whole, though the president appears unmoved in his belief that his plan will bolster American independence and manufacturing.

With tariffs set to take effect imminently, it’s still unclear how the digital asset industry will be impacted by the potential financial crisis in the long term.

The post Polymarket Bettors’ Recession Odds Surge Over 50% Amid Brutal 2 Day Market Decline appeared first on Cryptonews.