Polymarket contracts price less than a 1% chance that President Donald Trump will resign today, as traders position into a 2 P.M. ET Oval Office announcement reported by multiple outlets citing a White House advisory.

The Oval Office announced the planned appearance, though the topic was not disclosed. According to his schedule, Trump spent Labor Day golfing with no public appearances, and his day ended at 5:39 P.M. ET.

Trading around Trump’s tenure and health has drawn sizable volume. As of early afternoon on Sept. 2, a same-day “resign today” market on Polymarket showed <1% odds with roughly $1 million traded, based on live market boards shared with CryptoSlate.

Broader timeframes price low single-digit probabilities: the year-end contract “Will Trump resign in 2025?” traded near 6%, while “Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?” sat near 7%.

Amid a near-record low approval rate of 44% and a -7.6% net approval, a separate contract resolves on Trump’s polling floor, “How low will Trump’s approval rating go in 2025?,” priced a 40% approval or lower outcome at about 19%, with resolution tied to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin aggregator.

Market rules frame why odds cluster at the low end.

The resignation market pays out on an announcement alone by Dec. 31, 2025, irrespective of the effective date, per Polymarket’s rule set for the 2025 resignation contract.

Removal via the 25th requires a successful Section 4 process, meaning a Cabinet determination sustained by two-thirds of both chambers, per the 25th Amendment market. The approval market resolves to the green trend line published by Silver Bulletin.

Trading flurry follows online speculation about Trump’s health.

The White House disclosed on July 17 that the president was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency after leg swelling, with testing ruling out deep-vein thrombosis and cardiac issues, per an official physician memorandum posted by The White House.

Viral claims that Trump has “six to eight months to live” have been surfacing online based on “internet doctors’” assessment of the bruises on his hands. However, on Monday, Trump was reportedly photographed golfing near Washington, D.C., which added a fresh data point against “missing from public view” narratives, as People reported from the press pool.

In odd timing (for those indulging in conspiracy theory), VP J.D. Vance recently asserted that he is ready to be President should anything happen to Trump. Some have also claimed the images of Trump from this weekend are either a lookalike, fake, old, or show the president in very frail shape.

By 2 P.M. today, much of the social media weekend Zeitgeist will be solved, and millions will be paid out to those betting on the outcome via crypto’s always-present Polymarket prediction markets.

Rumor-driven markets can move fast, then mean-revert when new reporting lands. Today’s setup centers on the Oval Office announcement window and whether it alters the information environment that underpins these contracts.

Until that catalyst arrives, Polymarket’s same-day resignation line remains priced as a tail event, and the year-end resignation and removal contracts trade in the single digits.

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BTC has experienced considerable volatility after setting a new all-time high. Prices quickly reverse, signal possible bull traps, and lead everyone to the question, what is the best code to buy now? Perhaps BTC is set up to experience horizontal integration for some time, within the $116 to $124,000 range.

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The Bulls pushed BTC to a new peak of $124.4K, but suffered intense sales pressure and were trapped by the deceased participants. It is now back to the 118K range. Maintaining this level is important for the bull cycle to be effective. Rebounds from the 118K level are a sure sign of a continuing bullish trend.

On the four-hour chart, BTC’s recent movements reflect a classic fluidity sweep. It went past previous all-time highs, triggering a breakout purchase and a stop loss, but it turned sharply.

(btcusd)

It then dropped sharply under previous lower swings.

Currently, BTC is trading between 116K to 124K range. Without a compelling breakout, analysts hope that price action will remain volatile.

In the meantime, traders have zero in liquidity pockets at both ends of the range.

Explore: 9+ Best High Risk, High Reward Crypto Buy in August 2025

What does on-chain data show?

The average seven-day influx of Binance has skyrocketed as we speak, reaching one of the highest levels we’ve seen recently.

This metric tracks the average number of BTCs entering exchanges and has historically been consistent with preparations for sales, margin collateral, or institutional rebalancing.

The spikes show a stable inflow of BTC into Binance’s trading accounts from external wallets. Historically, such spikes have created short-term sales pressure when demand for sufficient locations is not met.

Additionally, Binance’s Netflow tests positive, indicating that the spill will run out.

If buyers do not absorb BTC, imbalances can lead to short-term volatility.

Explore:12+ Hottest Encryption Presale to Buy Now

The $12 billion BlackRock BET rattles out ETH supply, but is it still the best code to buy now?

BlackRock has acquired more than $12 billion in ETH in just 30 days, over 15 times more than BTC purchases in the same period, indicating a strong institutional pivot towards Altcoin King.

BlackRock ETH HOLDINGS

Launched in 2024, BlackRock-Controlled and Managed Isles Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) has already raised $1.5 billion in assets, highlighting ETH’s commitment to long-term value.

Its net publication fell to an all-time low in 2025 as its proof model and the EIP-1559 combustion mechanism permanently removes ETH from the circulation.

With BlackRock buying ETH, supply is definitely tightening further, liquidity is declining and price volatility is skyrocketing.

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Analysts predict that ETH could reach $5,000 to $7,000 in 2025.

Explore: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025

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Polymarket traders are pricing low probabilities on several notable phrases being spoken during President Donald Trump’s joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage today, even as volumes on the event’s prediction markets reach six figures.

The markets, which resolve on whether Trump uses specific words or phrases during the appearance, have drawn a combined volume of nearly $200,000 across multiple terms.

Per Polymarket data, the contract on whether Trump will say “Russia” or “Ukraine” at least 15 times carries a 79% implied probability, with about $15,300 traded. “Ceasefire” three or more times is at 72% on $11,334 volume. Other terms with higher probabilities include “Zelensky” at 88% ($37,780) and “BRICS” or “NATO” two or more times at 68% ($11,487). Markets for “secondary tariff” or “sanction” carry a 69% chance, while “Steve” or “Witkoff” is priced at 65%.

In contrast, some phrases are priced with sharply lower odds. “Crypto” or “Bitcoin” has attracted over $51,700 in volume yet holds just a 3% chance of being spoken. “Hell” three or more times is at 28%, “President Xi” sits at 27%, and several terms such as “Kyiv,” “Crimea,” “Biden,” and “Rare Earth” are clustered near the 40–50% range.

All markets resolve based on the official video or audio of the August 15 event, with any usage, including plural or possessive forms, counting toward settlement.

A separate Polymarket contract speculates on the length of the leaders’ handshake, drawing over $180,000 in total volume. The most traded outcome is a duration of 10 seconds or longer, at 24% with $56,092 volume, followed by 4–6 seconds at 27% and 2–4 seconds at 20%. The least probable outcome is under two seconds at just 4%.

The Alaska summit marks the first in-person Trump–Putin meeting since 2019 and the first U.S.-hosted bilateral meeting with a Russian leader since 2007.

As the Washington Post reported, the talks come without Ukrainian participation, a decision that has drawn objections from Kyiv and European allies. Per the Guardian, the Kremlin is expected to bring economic proposals alongside territorial demands related to the war in Ukraine.

Polymarket, which allows users to trade on crypto event outcomes, has become a closely watched barometer for sentiment around political and geopolitical events. The platform previously hosted a market on whether the summit would take place at all, which saw nearly $3 million in total wagers before resolving “Yes” with the meeting’s confirmation. Market prices shift dynamically as traders buy and sell shares in “Yes” or “No” outcomes, reflecting the crowd’s real-time assessment of probabilities.

The event’s timing has drawn interest from traders monitoring potential impacts on energy and macro markets. As MarketWatch noted, oil futures could react to any perceived breakthrough or breakdown in talks, with possible price swings of several dollars per barrel.

Bitcoin and Ethereum, which move in response to macro and geopolitical developments, may also be influenced by post-summit sentiment, though the dedicated “Crypto/Bitcoin” term market implies traders do not expect the asset class to feature in Trump’s public remarks.

Trump is scheduled to hold the joint news conference following his one-on-one meeting with Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson. The markets on Polymarket will close once the event concludes and recorded evidence confirms the results, with any absence of a public appearance by August 16 triggering a “No” resolution across all contracts.

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Canary Capital has registered a Trump Coin ETF in Delaware, a move that signals plans to launch a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the memecoin.

The entity, “Canary Trump Coin ETF,” was incorporated on Aug. 13, according to state records.

The registration is typically a precursor to filing an S-1 application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a corresponding 19b-4 form by a listing exchange.

If filed, the fund would be the third spot ETF tied to a meme coin, following applications for Dogecoin products from other major firms. Canary Capital has also filed for a PENGU ETF, making it one of the few U.S. asset managers to pursue multiple altcoin-based ETFs.

The firm’s strategy is unusual in a market where most crypto ETF efforts have centered on blue-chip digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with occasional diversification into large-cap layer-1 tokens like Solana (SOL).

By targeting smaller, high-volatility meme coins, the firm is positioning itself in a niche segment often viewed as speculative and outside the mainstream ETF landscape. The firm’s CEO previously stated that the altcoin ETFs are a bet on undervalued digital assets.

The proposed Trump Coin ETF would give institutional investors direct exposure to the Solana-based TRUMP token, potentially injecting additional liquidity into the market and creating a regulated investment channel for what is otherwise a retail-driven asset.

The SEC has previously stated that meme coins are considered commodities, which could simplify the approval process compared to tokens deemed securities.

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According to market analyst Common Sense Crypto, a $1,000 bet on XRP today could turn into between $10,000 and $50,000 during this cycle.

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He pointed out that the same stake in Bitcoin would likely top out at around $1,300–$1,500. That claim has caught the eye of many investors who are weighing where to put their crypto dollars.

Strong ROI Comparison

Common Sense Crypto ran the numbers. At XRP’s current price of $3.18, a $1,000 buy-in nets roughly 315 tokens. To hit $10k, each XRP would need to trade at $31.80.

If XRP somehow climbed to $160, that small stake would swell to $50k. By contrast, a $1k purchase of Bitcoin at $120,000 today would only need BTC to rise to about $154k–$178k to yield the same $1,300–$1,500 returns.

Here’s a quick fact to ponder, if you put $1,000 into $xrp today you will most likely end up with at least $10,000 – $50,000 in this cycle, if you put the same $1,000 into $btc you will most like only end up with $1300 – $1500. ROI (return on investment) is more important than…

— Common Sense Crypto (@TheCSCrypto) July 12, 2025

Those are gains in the 30–50% range. This puts XRP’s upside in a very different league when viewed purely as percentages.

Still, size matters. XRP’s market cap sits near $188 billion. Bitcoin’s floats around $2.37 trillion. To push XRP to $159, its valuation would need to balloon to roughly $9.5 trillion—nearly four times Bitcoin’s current size. That would require massive new inflows and adoption on a scale we’ve never seen in crypto.

XRP Tops $3; CEO Sets Sights On 14% Of SWIFT

Ripple’s XRP finally breached the long-awaited $3 mark after US President Donald Trump announced a new US strategic crypto reserve, including XRP and other digital assets​.

As one of the most traded cryptocurrencies, XRP enjoys high daily trading volumes, ensuring price stability and ease of entry for institutional investors.

Ripple’s chief executive, Brad Garlinghouse, predicts that within five years, Ripple will handle about 14% of SWIFT’s worldwide cross‑border transaction flows.

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Past Cycle Performance

Other voices have made similar points. In June, Edoardo Farina of Alpha Lions Academy noted that between November 2024 and January 2025, XRP jumped from $0.50 to $3.40.

That’s a 7x return in just two months. Bitcoin, in that same window, climbed from $68k to $112k, a 60% gain. Farina calculated that $50k in XRP would have grown to $340k while the same investment in Bitcoin would have become about $82,352.

The XRP 50x Challenge

XRP’s promise of turning $1,000 into as much as $50,000 is eye‑catching. Its past leap from $0.50 to $3.40 in just two months shows what’s possible. But growing its market cap from $188 billion to $9.5 trillion means a tidal wave of new money and clear legal rules.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Earlier this month, Bitcoin won over 170%, from around $45,000 to over $123,000 from its starting monthly price.

Related readings

Based on reports from City, the bank has laid out three scenarios where prices could land by 2025. These range from a minimum of $64,000 to a herd of bulls in a weak market, $199,000, if everything is done right.

ETF Flow will be the central stage with Bitcoin up trends

According to Citi Analysts, the Spot Bitcoin ETF explains more than 40% of recent price fluctuations. Since its debut, US ETFs have won around $54.6 billion worth of Bitcoin.

Its purchasing power helped boost BTC from around $45,000 to $123,000 in just a few months. The bank’s basic incident expects an additional $15 billion inflow of ETFs this year. At the ratio they modeled (the price of $4 per dollar for flow), we add about $63,000 to the value of Bitcoin.

bitcoin Bitcoin could surge to $199K by the end of the year, City says

Citigroup has released a new forecast to project Bitcoin by the end of 2025 in its base case scenario. The bullish case estimates a potential rise of $199,000, but the bearish outlook is… pic.twitter.com/3kp1o8ogsn

– The Tradesman (@the_tradesman1) July 26, 2025

User growth drives network effects

Based on trading desks and on-chain metric figures, Citi expects an active Bitcoin user to rise by 20% over the next year. Adoption jumps will support a price intensity of around $75,000 on its own.

The idea is simple. This means that more users have more hands trading with Bitcoin. That activity tends to cause prices to suddenly drop. Still, such predictions rest on the assumption that new users will stick around, rather than flipping the coin, instead of getting quick profits.

Macroeconomic factors reduce forecasts slightly

Citi’s model cuts the price to around $3,200, taking into account the decline in stock and gold performance. This adjustment reflects the view that Bitcoin will not be completely separated from the broader risky assets when stocks and metals markets struggle.

At the same time, the growing regulatory approval and the deeper link between crypto and traditional finance should provide some support.

ETF demand could raise Bitcoin by $63,000

In the base case scenario, Citi adds $63,000 from the ETF flow to $75,000 from the user growth and subtracts $3,200 due to macro headwinds.

That mathematics lands a price of around $135,000 in 2025. That figure is above the recent $123,000 peak, exceeding $12,000. City suggests that, at least in the basic case, it is not a runaway rally, but is seeing more rise.

Related readings

A $199,000 bull case remains on the table

If ETFs go well beyond $15 billion and user growth exceeds 20%, Bitcoin could rise to $199,000 under City’s bull case.

Conversely, if the macro conditions are suddenly sour, it can drop to $64,000. Globally, the ETF currently holds around 1.48 million btc, worth more than $170 billion. This is 7% of the total supply.

That level of institutional support is unprecedented. It shifts the fate of Bitcoin towards the big money stream rather than pure retail hype.

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