Recent data from Bitcoin and gold ETFs revealed a departure from historical trends this month: instead of flows moving in opposite directions as they normally do, both Bitcoin and gold experienced outflows at the same time.

This rare correlation speaks volumes about the current macroeconomic environment and shifting investor psychology. Bitcoin outflows didn’t benefit gold, and until the Fed’s path is clearer, both assets remain under pressure.

Bitcoin outflows, hard assets are feeling the pain

Traditionally, when investors pull money out of Bitcoin, gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, sees a surge in inflows, and vice versa. That’s because Bitcoin and gold are seen as alternative stores of value and hedges against traditional financial market risks.

Investors often view them as uncorrelated assets because their prices and demand don’t typically move in tandem with stocks or bonds. However, each asset appeals to different risk appetites and market conditions

Not so this month. Bitcoin ETFs recorded six straight days of outflows, draining nearly $2 billion in late August alone. Meanwhile, outflows from major gold ETFs, such as GLDM, also spiked, with $449 million exiting in just one week.

Despite record Bitcoin outflows and a broader crypto market pullback, Bitcoin ETFs rebounded toward the end of August, with a four-day inflow streak through the pullback. Gold ETFs also saw net inflows during the last days of August 2025, tracking a similar rebound as Bitcoin ETFs, and suggesting a possible change in investor sentiment as the month closes.

Macro uncertainty rules

The backdrop for this unusual behavior is a cocktail of economic crosswinds: uncertainty around Federal Reserve monetary policy, persistent inflation, and signs of a softer labor market. With the Fed’s next move unclear, Bitcoin and gold may not be especially attractive to investors seeking clarity or certainty.

Sticky inflation keeps the Fed hawkish, yet waning job growth undercuts confidence in further rate hikes.

This uncomfortable limbo leaves markets in a risk-off posture, where both speculative and defensive assets struggle to gain traction.

Waiting for the Fed’s next move

Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” inflows are stalling right now because investors aren’t feeling risk-on. Yet gold, which typically shines in periods of heightened fear, is also not benefiting from Bitcoin outflows.

Inflation concerns and shifting rate expectations are undermining gold’s historic safe-haven narrative. Instead of moving in opposition, both assets faced outflows as investors either shift to cash, seek higher-yielding alternatives, or wait for the Fed’s next move.

Until monetary policy direction becomes clearer, both Bitcoin and gold may continue to face headwinds. Macro investors value certainty, and, at the moment, ambiguity reigns.

This lethal combination makes it difficult for investors to predict whether rates will rise, a recession is coming, or inflation will surge again, leading to broader uncertainty across financial markets.

For now, Bitcoin outflows aren’t benefiting gold, and both assets are caught on the sidelines, waiting for the Fed to declare a new direction.

Investor Luke Gromen says that Bitcoin (BTC) may catch a boost from gold if the precious metal usurps US Treasuries to become the preferred settlement asset.

In a new video update, Gromen says that if the White House truly wants to reshore American manufacturing as stated, the US will have to learn to stop or at least slow down the exporting of the dollar and Treasuries.

To achieve the current administration’s goal, the macro guru says the White House could allow gold to become the primary settlement asset instead of the dollar or Treasuries.

A settlement asset is a financial instrument used by central banks and governments to settle a trade or monetary obligation.

Gromen also says that if gold becomes the new settlement asset, investors might start to see Bitcoin as a reliable alternative.

Explains Gromen,

“We can export Treasuries and financial assets, or we can make stuff, but if we want to make stuff, that’s the end of the post-1971 US dollar reserve status structure. And it’s an underappreciated point.

The way you get around it is you shift the settlement asset away from Treasuries to a neutral reserve asset like gold. I think that process has been started.

I thought it was extraordinarily interesting and potentially important that Trump did not put tariffs on gold. He put tariffs on everything else in the world, including an island full of penguins, apparently, but not gold, which tells me that’s where we want capital to go, and that’ll weaken the dollar which, guess what, if gold goes up a bunch, it’ll strengthen the dollar system because it’l be more gold-backed and you’re going to weaken the dollar. That’s how you split the baby around Triffin’s Dilemma and a neutral reserve asset.

I think Bitcoin probably benefits over time from that, too.”

The Triffin’s Dilemma is a concept established by economist Robert Triffin that notes a paradox between the need of the United States to run trade deficits to supply the world with enough USD, while keeping inflation and confidence in the currency at reasonable levels.

At time if writing, Bitcoin is trading for $84,603.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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