Bitcoin short-term holders have made it possible for prices to act as support

As Cryptoquant author IT Tech explained in X Post, Bitcoin found support by achieving short-term holder prices during the latest DIP. The “realized price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that measures the cost base of the average investor on the BTC network.

If the cryptocurrency price exceeds this metric, it means that the entire holder is in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, being under the indicator means that the entire market is red.

In the context of the current topic, realised prices for only certain segments of investors are interesting. Short term holder (STH). This cohort includes holders who have purchased coins within the last 155 days.

STHS supplements one of the two main sectors of the Bitcoin market, which was made based on holding time, with the other side known as the Long Term Holder (LTHS).

What makes these groups different is that investors in the former tend to be weaker hands who move in panic every time volatility appears in the sector, while members of the latter exhibit high conviction behavior.

For any investor, their cost base is at a critical level and STH is particularly whimsical, so when realised prices are retested, they usually have some kind of response. This has led to the price of assets that have observed various interactions with this metric in the past.

As the chart below shared by analysts suggests, one such interaction may have occurred in the past day.

As shown in the graph above, Bitcoin Sth now achieves around $107,500. In BTC’s latest DIP, its price went slightly under this mark, but it turns out to be a high rebound.

Generally, STH buys to adhere to their cost standards if the emotions between them are bullish. At such times, they believe that the price of their damaged mark will be an opportunity to “buy dip”

Given the fact that the assets could find support at the realised price of STH, it appears that STH still thinks the bullish regime is on. That said, Bitcoin has only seen a small rebound so far, so it remains to be seen whether its assets are above the level or if there will be another retest.

In a scenario where metric breakdowns occur, cryptocurrencies could face a shift towards a short-term bearish trend that took place in February this year.

BTC price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped by 2% to around $109,200 over the past seven days.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate between $115,000 and $120,000, with bulls maintaining control despite the lack of a breakout above $123,000. What stands out in this range-bound structure is the clear demand concentration around $117,000. According to Glassnode’s BTC Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, this level has consistently attracted buying interest, acting as a key area where capital rotates into Bitcoin.

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The heatmap reveals dense clusters of cost basis activity near key price levels. This reinforces its role as short-term support and a psychological anchor for bulls. As long as this zone holds, the risk of a full breakdown remains limited—even as BTC struggles to reach new highs.

However, repeated rejections near $120K and muted momentum raise concerns that upside exhaustion could eventually lead to deeper downside. If demand at $117K begins to fade, price may quickly revisit lower levels in search of fresh support. For now, though, on-chain data shows that accumulation remains healthy, and this zone could be the foundation for Bitcoin’s next attempt to reclaim the highs.

$117K Becomes Bitcoin’s Accumulation Stronghold as Market Shifts

Bitcoin’s $117,000 level has emerged as a key accumulation zone, with approximately 73,000 BTC now held at this cost basis, according to the latest data from Glassnode. This reinforces the idea that buyers continue to step in on every dip, absorbing selling pressure and stabilizing price action within the current range. The BTC Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows a consistent buildup of demand in this area, highlighting investor confidence around this support zone.

What makes this cycle particularly unique is the presence of legal clarity and accelerating institutional adoption in the US. Unlike previous cycles, where price action was often driven by retail speculation and extreme volatility, today’s structure appears more measured. Regulatory progress—especially around spot Bitcoin ETFs and clearer custody frameworks—has attracted a wave of long-term capital. This influx of institutional demand is not only stabilizing the market but also making it less reactive to short-term swings.

However, Bitcoin’s calm price action may not last much longer. As Ethereum gains momentum, driven by rising open interest and on-chain activity, capital is beginning to rotate into altcoins. Historically, such transitions have marked the end of Bitcoin-led phases and the beginning of broader market expansions. If ETH and altcoins continue to accelerate, Bitcoin’s tight trading range could break—either leading to a catch-up rally or a temporary pause as capital rotates elsewhere.

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BTC Range Narrows As Price Holds Between Key Levels

The 8-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating tightly between $115,724 and $122,077, with the price currently hovering around $118,762. Despite a lack of strong momentum, the structure remains bullish as BTC holds above all major moving averages—the 50 SMA ($118,185), 100 SMA ($113,521), and 200 SMA ($109,754). This alignment signals continued trend strength, with short-term dips being supported by buyers.

Volume has declined during the consolidation, a typical sign of a neutral phase where market participants await a breakout. Notably, each pullback toward the lower boundary near $115,700 has been met with strong demand, confirming this zone as key support. Meanwhile, resistance at $122,000 continues to cap bullish attempts, forming a clear range that will likely define Bitcoin’s next move.

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If BTC can reclaim $120,000 with a strong surge in volume, a breakout toward new all-time highs above $123,000 becomes likely. Conversely, a breakdown below $115,700 could trigger a sharper correction toward the 100 SMA around $113,500. For now, all eyes remain on whether bulls can sustain pressure and flip resistance, or if sellers regain control near the top of the range. The current setup favors patient accumulation as the market prepares for its next directional move.

Hedge funds have been aggressively shorting ether (ETH) during the recent uptick to $3,000 as they attempt to harvest a yield by carrying out a basis trade.

Hedge funds are shorting ether to the tune of $1.73 billion on the CME, a venue favored by institutional traders, according to data from the Block, which cites the CFTC. CME data also shows that ether leveraged net totals have skewed heavily to the short side, according to X account zerohedge.

A basis trade involves shorting an asset on one venue whilst simultaneously buying on another, remaining delta neutral in terms of price action. In this case, traders can secure around 9.5% per year by shorting ETH on the CME while buying spot ETFs, of which there is around $12 billion in assets under management.

Data from Coinglass shows that on Thursday alone there was a record $421 million worth of inflows to ether ETFs, a trend that has been ongoing since early May.

Those shorting ETH could secure an additional yield if they buy spot ETH and stake it for a further 3.5% per year. It’s worth noting that this option isn’t possible for spot ETF purchasers as custody is handled by the ETF provider.

Bitcoin

was a popular asset for traders carrying out the basis trade in 2024 but that yield collapsed in March, which temporarily stalled inflows and muted price action.

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The Dogecoin price is consolidating within a key horizontal support level of a Descending Triangle pattern, known for sparking explosive moves. Rather than fading, price action appears to be compressing, setting the stage for a potential breakout above the $1 target.   

$1 Target Back In Play As Dogecoin Holds Support

Trader Tardigrade, a prominent crypto analyst, has issued yet another bullish Dogecoin price prediction, this time speculating that the number one meme coin could be gearing up to surge above the long-anticipated $1 price target. The analyst’s chart, shared in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), highlights the completion of a Descending Triangle pattern.

On the current non-logarithmic 1D chart, Dogecoin has completed three clear touches of the horizontal support, located around the $0.1369 level. This support zone forms the base of the triangle pattern, while a descending resistance line connects lower highs back to the $0.4835 peak in December 2024. 

Based on Trader Tardigrade’s analysis, this structural setup mirrors an early breakout pattern from 2024, where Dogecoin surged from a similar support base around $0.0938 to nearly $0.48 in just a few weeks. At the time, this rally aligned perfectly with the 2.786 Fibonacci Extension level at $0.468.

Notably, the analyst projects that if the Dogecoin price can replicate the previous cycle’s breakout behaviour and patterns, it could rally again toward the next 2.786 Fibonacci target. This time, this extension aligns with the $1.09 level, representing more than four times the meme coin’s current market value. 

Supporting this bullish outlook is the repeating price structure labeled “1-2-3” on the chart—a classic sign of multiple tests of support that often precede a breakout. With the third touch now confirmed, and Dogecoin still trading within the Descending Triangle’s range, the stage appears set for a potential explosive move to a new ATH. Trader Tardigrade has illustrated this projected breakout scenario on his chart using a sharply curved dotted arrow, indicating a powerful move toward the $1 region by late 2025. 

Historical Fractal Points To Higher $4 Target

In a more recent macro-level technical analysis of Dogecoin, Trader Tardigrade examines Dogecoin’s monthly price behaviour, highlighting striking similarities between its 2015-2018 cycle and the current multi-year pattern forming since 2022. 

During the previous cycle, DOGE rallied from approximately $0.0003 to $0.0026, before peaking at $0.009. This bullish structure formed right after a prolonged accumulation period, followed by a sharp vertical rally along a rising support trendline. 

Now, Dogecoin’s current chart setup appears to be mirroring this historical fractal, showing similar rounded bottoms and base formations between 2022 and 2025. As a result, Trader Tardigrade predicts that the DOGE price could first rally to $0.42 before hitting an intermediate target of $1.46. Once the price crosses this level, the analyst forecasts an even higher breakout toward $4, representing a staggering 2,400% rally from the meme coin’s current market value of $0.16.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin’s price action in the past 48 hours has seen it approaching the $80,000 price level again, with risks of breaking to the downside. Looking at on-chain data shows a notable support level between $80,920 and $78,000 that must not be broken. 

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Particularly, on-chain analytics from Glassnode point to a thinning of support at the $78,000 level, where only minimal cost basis clusters now exist. The insight follows a sharp move that saw savvy traders scoop up nearly 15,000 Bitcoin at the March 10 low before cashing out at the $87,000 local top.

Support Cushion Rises With Clusters Between $80,000 And $84,000

Bitcoin started the month of March with a crazy crash that saw its price hit below $77,000 on March 10 and March 11. Most of the month was spent by Bitcoin embarking on a recovery from this level, eventually reaching as high as $88,500 last week.

Interestingly, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that some Bitcoin traders took advantage of the crash and bought about 15,000 BTC at this low. However, many addresses from this same cohort sold at the $87,000 local top, leaving behind a depleted buffer zone that may no longer offer the same price stability.

Bitcoin’s strongest cost basis clusters have steadily migrated upward from $78,000 throughout the month, with the most prominent support levels now sitting between $80,920 and $84,100. Approximately 20,000 BTC were acquired at $80,920, 50,000 BTC at $82,090, and another 40,000 BTC at around $84,100. These fresh accumulations are now the new zones of confidence among recent buyers that may offer cushions for the recent market dip.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $83,120, meaning that it has lost the zone of 40,000 BTC around $84,100. This puts the onus on $82,090 and, subsequently, the $80,920 price levels. However, if the correction sharpens further, it wouldn’t be until after $78,000 that structural support reappears at $74,000 and $71,000, where long-term conviction buying occurred, estimated at 49,000 BTC and 41,000 BTC, respectively.

Image From X: Glassnode

$95,000 Cost Basis Cluster Grows With Cooling Demand

As support continues to climb gradually, resistance appears to be firming near the $95,000 mark. Investor cost basis data shows an increase of 12,000 BTC clustered at this level since March 24.

This implies that some investors now anticipate a top forming around $95,000, and selling activity could become more pronounced if prices approach that zone. This resistance, alongside the support levels, could see Bitcoin confined within a narrowing range in the short term.

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Glassnode data confirms that long-term holders (addresses holding Bitcoin for more than 150 days) have been the primary source of profit-taking for a while. Long-term holders’ profit-taking is now nearly matched by the losses endured by short-term traders who have been holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. 

Image From X: Glassnode

Featured image from Tech Research Online, chart from TradingView

While there is no surefire way to put these doubts away, on-chain data can provide relevant insights into what is to come. The latest on-chain data suggests the highlighted level below is the one to watch before investors return to the market.

Level To Watch Before ‘Buying The Dip’

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Maartunn shared that it might not be technically secure to reenter the Bitcoin market at the current price. This analysis is based on the movement of the Bitcoin price relative to the current value of the short-term holders’ (STH) average cost basis.

The STH average cost basis metric estimates the average price at which short-term holders (investors who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days) acquired their coins. It represents a psychological level for BTC investors and could act as a reference point for price analysis, especially during bull cycles.

Bitcoin usually trades above the short-term holders’ average cost basis during bull markets, signaling substantial buying pressure and optimistic sentiment from short-term investors. On the flip side, when the price of BTC falls beneath this cost basis — as seen in the ongoing correction, it implies that short-term investors are at a loss, which could lead to a sell-off and precipitate significant bearish pressure.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin price is currently 6% below the short-term holders’ average cost basis at $90,950. With the flagship cryptocurrency beneath the realized price of short-term holders, the odds are that BTC price could face further selling pressure as the investor cohort looks to minimize their loss.

Using this logic, Maartunn noted that investors might want to wait till the price of Bitcoin climbs above the STH average cost price before reentering the market. Interestingly, the short-term investors appear to still be loading their bags. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed in a post on X that short-term holders have purchased more than 35,000 BTC in the past 4 days.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance 

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just below the $86,000 mark, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.