Backtesting – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Wed, 20 Aug 2025 21:03:38 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Backtesting – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 50-200 Moving Average Crossover Strategy v1 Backtesting Results https://earlybirdsinvest.com/50-200-moving-average-crossover-strategy-v1-backtesting-results/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/50-200-moving-average-crossover-strategy-v1-backtesting-results/#respond Wed, 20 Aug 2025 21:03:37 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/50-200-moving-average-crossover-strategy-v1-backtesting-results/

In a previous article, I showed you how to create a fully automated 50-200 moving average crossover trading strategy, without coding.

Now I’m going to show you the backtesting results of that strategy for every market that I’ve tested.

I’ll show you both the good and bad.

You have to backtest this strategy yourself to make sure that you’re comfortable with it and that it actually works with your broker.

Even if a strategy doesn’t work well, you can test ideas on how to improve it and make it much more profitable.

Now let’s move on to the trading plan and the results for each market.

Remember: This is only a starting point for YOUR trading strategies. This is for informational purposes only and the results below will not guarantee successful trading. 

As I backtest new markets, I’ll add the results to this page.

Bookmark this page and check back periodically if you want to get future updates.

The 50-200 Crossover Strategy Trading Plan

Moving Average crossover on chart

Here are the rules for this plan:

  • Buy
    • Buy when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA
    • Stop Loss at last swing low
    • Risk 1% per trade
    • Take profit a 1R (1 times risk)
  • Sell
    • Buy when the 50 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA
    • Stop Loss at last swing high
    • Risk 1% per trade
    • Take profit a 1R (1 times risk)

Be sure to read the full 50-200 Moving Average Crossover automated strategy tutorial to learn how I did these backtests in just a few minutes, without coding.

Backtests

EURUSD

Weekly Chart

On this timeframe, there isn’t enough data to pursue this strategy.

With only 10 trades, you simply won’t get enough trades to make this viable.

EURUSD W 50-200 Crossover

Daily Chart

This actually looks pretty good.

True…the return is very low, but the max drawdown is also low and the strategy stayed profitable throughout the entire test.

So this could be a good strategy to optimize, or trade in multiple markets, assuming that the results are favorable in those markets too.

No guarantees obviously, further testing would have to be done.

EURUSD D chart 50-200

4-Hour Chart

This strategy was profitable for most of the testing period, so this could be a good timeframe to start experimenting with.

Yes, the return was breakeven.

But the graph is more promising than most of the others on this list.

It executed 209 trades, which is decent.

If this works in other markets, then the combined return could produce a significant return.

Again, backtest this for yourself.

This is only meant to be a starting point.

EURUSD 4-hour results

1-Hour Chart

The return on this strategy was breakeven, so there is potential to possibly optimize this timeframe.

On the upside, the strategy did execute quite a few trades.

EURUSD 1-hour 50-200 moving average crossover results

30-Minute Chart

The results on this timeframe are not worth examining further, at least with this version of the strategy.

EURUSD 30m

5-Minute Chart

The results are terrible on the 5-minute chart, so no further analysis is necessary.

EURUSD 5min backtesting results

AUDUSD

Weekly Chart

Not enough trades here to start using this timeframe.

AUDUSD weekly results

Daily Chart

This could be tweaked because the results are breakeven. The biggest issue is that there aren’t very many trades, so I wouldn’t pursue this one.

AUDUSD daily results 50-200

4-Hour Chart

Another breakeven result, so it might be something worth tweaking.

AUDUSD H4 50-200 crossover chart

1-Hour Chart

Breakeven again. Maybe it’s worth a few tweaks, but I wouldn’t spend a lot of time on it.

AUDUSD H1 results

30-Minute Chart

Pretty terrible results, so probably not worth messing with. Move on.

AUDUSD M30 chart backtesting results

5-Minute Chart

Just like with the EURUSD, the 5-minute chart is completely useless, so this is not worth exploring.

It pretty much blew out the account.

audusd m5 results

Notes and Observations About this Strategy

So far, the lower timeframes are showing much worse results.

Therefore, it might be better to stick to the daily and 4-hour charts.

Also, the stop loss on this strategy may not be ideal.

Sometimes the stop ends up being too far away and it takes awhile for price to hit the target.

More testing and optimization would have to be done.

Learn how to build and tweak this strategy and test your own ideas and you might come out with better results than me.

Conclusion

So that’s how this strategy stacks up in all of those markets.

I’ll be adding new backtests as I do them, so be sure to bookmark this page and check back periodically to see if I have any new markets.

Remember that you should always backtest a strategy for yourself. 

Never rely on the results of others, including me. 

To learn exactly how I created an automated program to do the backtests above, WITHOUT coding, read this tutorial.

 

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What is a Good Backtesting Result? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-is-a-good-backtesting-result/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-is-a-good-backtesting-result/#respond Wed, 20 Aug 2025 07:58:43 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-is-a-good-backtesting-result/

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“Well duh, a good backtesting results is when you make 1,000,000% return.”

That’s what many new traders think and that’s why over 90% of traders fail.

If you want to become a successful trader, you’re going to have to learn how properly evaluate a trading strategy and adjust your perception of what is a good backtesting result. 

Spoiler alert: Most successful trading strategies start off as mediocre or even poor. 

But through continual testing and iteration, they are made into profitable strategies.

Just like successful traders are made, not born…successful strategies require an investment of time and effort.

Where to Start

The first thing to understand about backtesting is that almost all successful trading strategies didn’t start out that way. 

A great trading strategy is just like any great invention.

It starts with an idea and the inventor wants to solve a problem.

Traders want to solve the problem of making money consistently in the markets.

You will probably have to refine your trading strategy idea to make it profitable.

Once you understand that trading strategies rarely start off as profitable, it then makes sense that breakeven backtesting or slightly profitable results can actually be a good thing. 

If a strategy is breakeven (or close to it), then you just might have to do a few tweaks to get it to profitable.

Many times, experimenting with money management or exits can make a strategy profitable.

With that in mind, here are more details on what to look for in your testing results.

Historical Data Used in Backtests

Before I get into analyzing your actual backtesting results, one important thing to consider is how much historical data was used in your backtests.

Many backtesting platforms only give you 1 or 2 years of backtesting data.

This is not nearly enough to figure out how a strategy will perform over different market conditions and cycles.

So when you’re backtesting, get as much historical data as possible.

Define a Review Period

Once you have a lot of historical data to test with, be sure to define your review period for your strategies.

If you are creating a strategy on the daily chart, you might want to review the returns on a yearly basis.

Now if you’re testing on the 1 hour chart, you should probably review your monthly results.

Then figure out your average return per your review time period.

You probably won’t be profitable in every review period, but you want to see what type of drawdowns you’ll have to endure and what to expect from the trading strategy.

This analysis will allow you to compare trading strategies in an objective manner and judge which strategies you may want to pursue and which ones to drop.

Set a Goal

Now it’s time to figure out what matters to you.

A “good” trading strategy has to be good for you and nobody else.

It won’t necessarily be the most profitable or the most consistent.

But if it meets your income needs, then that’s all that matters.

A word of caution here…

Many traders (myself included) start out with unrealistic goals for their strategies.

So set a goal, but you might find yourself having to adjust what you expect out of one trading strategy.

You might have to trade several trading strategies or markets to get the results you’re looking for.

Don’t get discouraged however, if you keep working the results will come.

How to Identify Trading Strategies with Potential

There are 3 basic types of backtesting results:

  1. Terrible
  2. Breakeven
  3. Profitable

Now I’ll define each and show you what to look for in each.

A Terrible Backtesting Result

audusd m5 results

This one is obvious.

If the strategy loses 80% of the account or more, then you probably shouldn’t spend any more time with it.

The strategy above lost 99.82% from 2009 to 2024.

That’s as bad as it gets.

Trying to optimize a strategy with a terrible result is like polishing the brass on the Titanic.

It’s best to move on and use your time and brain power to create a new strategy.

A Breakeven Backtesting Result

EURUSD 4-hour results

Here’s where things get exciting. 

Most new traders will throw away a breakeven strategy, but not you because you’re reading this article.

A breakeven strategy can potentially be optimized and made much more profitable.

It might just need a tweak or two to work well.

Here are some questions to ask when trying to improve a strategy:

  • Can you eliminate the biggest losers easily?
  • Do losing trades have a common characteristic? Maybe they go longer than 2 days or they are taken during a certain time of day.
  • What happens if you set a bigger profit target?
  • Can you increase your stop loss, while risking the same percentage of your account, so you don’t get stopped out so often?
  • Will using a trailing stop loss improve your results?
  • How do your results change of you increase or decrease your risk per trade? It may be counterintuitive, but lowering your risk per trade can sometimes increase your total return.

Those are the major things to consider when trying to improve the performance of a strategy.

But don’t stop there, what else can you think of?

A Profitable Backtesting Result

Backtesting results graph

Now we get to the result that everyone is looking for, a profitable result on the first try.

It doesn’t happen often, but it is possible.

I’ve only had a hugely profitable result on the first try…twice.

But even if your results were profitable, you can’t stop there. 

You need to double check your results.

Real world trading could vary dramatically from backtesting results if you don’t account for everything.

Consider the following:

  • Did you properly account for commissions, spread, slippage and fees?
  • Will you be awake to take trades when they setup?
  • Did you follow the trading plan?
  • Did you run a Monte Carlo simulation to see your maximum potential drawdown?

Once you’ve verified that your results are good in a program like NakedMarkets, Forex Tester or FX Replay, congratulations, you now have a profitable trading strategy.

Now it’s time to move on to Forward Testing to be sure it works.

This is a key step to making absolutely sure that your strategy works before risking your full trading capital.

But don’t stop there.

Continue to test ways to potentially make your strategy better.

See if you can increase the return or decrease the drawdowns.

Pick the one that’s more important to you.

Consider trading 2 or 3 versions of your strategy at the same time to diversify your risk.

Once you’re trading your strategy with your full-sized account, then you can repeat the process to find another profitable strategy.

Final Thoughts

Again, you probably won’t get a super profitable backtesting result on your first try.

The key is to be able to spot the diamonds in the rough.

From there, you can work on developing each strategy to its maximum potential.

It’s also important to be able to figure out which strategies will never work and stop trying to improve them right away.

Remember that trading strategies usually tend to perform a little worse in real life.

So account for that and don’t get too excited about a huge return.

Before I go, I’ll leave you with a conversation that we had about this topic on the Think Profit Podcast.

It will give you more ideas on what to look for when you’re backtesting.

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The Ultimate Guide to TradingView Backtesting https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-tradingview-backtesting/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-tradingview-backtesting/#respond Tue, 19 Aug 2025 23:16:16 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-tradingview-backtesting/

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When you buy something through one of the links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission.

In this tutorial, I’ll show you how to use the backtesting function in TradingView and give you the benefits and downsides of this platform, based on my personal experience.

This powerful tool allows traders to test the effectiveness of any trading strategy, whether it’s one they have developed themselves, or one created by a member of the TradingView Community.

Key Takeaways

  • TradingView’s backtesting function allows traders to quickly test a wide selection of trading strategies across a huge collection of worldwide trading markets.
  • The platform offers a variety of strategies created by Community members, as well as the ability to create your own.
  • While there can be limitations to TradingView’s backtesting platform, there are also solutions.

Benefits of TradingView Backtesting

Trading at beach

Here are some of the benefits of using TradingView’s backtesting platform:

  • Fast results: The backtesting system is fast, and you can see the results right away. This allows you to iterate quickly and adjust your strategy accordingly.
  • Community scripts: You can use other traders’ strategies that are available in the Community. This saves you time and effort in developing your own strategy.
  • Historical Data: TradingView has a Deep Backtesting feature that provides all the historical data you need to conduct a thorough backtest.
  • Easy to use: The backtesting function is simple, no complex setups required.
  • Access tons of worldwide markets: TradingView gives traders access to a wide range of markets from around the world. It could be the largest collection of publicly available data feeds in the world.
  • Browser based: Available on almost any operating system.
  • Create your own strategies: Make and test your own strategies quickly with Pine Script.

Now that you know a little about the platform, here’s how to start using it.

How to Access Strategy Tester on TradingView

First make sure that you’re logged into a paid account.

To access the backtesting function, first click the Strategy Tester tab at the bottom of the screen.

Strategy Tester in TradingView

From there, click on the Load Your Strategy button.

This can either be a strategy that you’ve created or one that’s been developed by a Community member within TradingView.

To find a strategy, search by name or browse through the available community scripts.

Be sure to use the menu on the left of the window to see other types of strategies.

Select Personal to see the strategies you’ve created.

TradingView Strategies

Yeah, there are a TON of strategies available and it can be a little overwhelming.

So start with something that you understand and test all the related strategies.

For example, when I search for a Bollinger Bands trading strategy, here’s what comes up.

The number on the right of each strategy indicates the number of people currently using it.

Strategies list in TradingView

Usually, the most popular ones are at the top.

But not always.

So scroll through the strategies to see them all.

Once I click on a strategy, TradingView will add it to my chart, run the backtest on the current market/timeframe and give me the results.

Strategy result

You can see the trades it took and get a performance summary report below the chart.

Pretty slick!

How to Run the Backtest on Other Markets and Timeframes

Once you’ve selected a strategy to backtest, it’s super easy to run the test on any market and timeframe available on TradingView.

To run the test on another timeframe, simply click one of the available timeframes on the top of the current chart.

You can even set your own custom timeframe by clicking on the down arrow and selecting “Add custom interval”.

Timeframes in TradingView

The results of the backtest on that timeframe will appear on the bottom of your screen, just like with the first backtest.

You’ll see the results almost instantly, making this a very efficient way to backtest.

To test the strategy on other markets, click on the watchlist icon in the upper right corner, then click on the market you want to backtest.

TradingView backtest on new market

You can also click on the current market ticker in the upper left corner of the screen and search for a new market to test.

Search for market in TradingView

Again, as soon as you select the market, you’ll see the backtesting results in the bottom panel.

Remove a Trading Strategy

To remove a strategy from your chart, click on the Object Tree icon on right side of the screen, then click the Delete icon next to the trading strategy.

Remove TradingView strategy

Once you’ve deleted a strategy, you can a new one, or go back to using TradingView as just a charting platform.

Evaluating Backtesting Results

Now it’s important to talk about what a “good” backtesting result is.

Many new traders think that they need to have a fantastic result on the first try, or the backtest is a failure.

That’s not how it works.

In reality, it’s best to look for strategies that have potential.

So here are some things to look for:

  • The strategy is near breakeven: The strategy could be optimized
  • There are huge winners, which get slowly get taken out by small losers: The number of losers could possibly be reduced
  • Conversely, there are consistent small winners, but a few big losers: The size of the losing trades could be reduced
  • Strategies that perform well in some markets but not others: Only trade it in markets where it performs well

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

To get a complete guide on how to judge and potentially improve backtesting results, read my article on good backtesting results.

Selecting a Trading Strategy the Smart Way

When it comes to selecting strategies to test, there are a couple of ways to approach it.

First, you can browse the available strategies that you can use for free, as I mentioned above.

Sort the strategies by popularity and backtest each one.

This is a decent method if you don’t know where to start.

But you’ll quickly learn that most of the free strategies don’t work.

Yeah, you generally get what you pay for.

And there are so many strategies out there that it would take forever to test them all.

So once you get tired of looking for random ass strategies, it’s time to get smarter.

A better way to approach this proess is to start by asking yourself what type of strategy you’re looking for:

  • Do you prefer trend strategies?
  • Do you want to trade a RSI strategy?
  • Do you want to day trade?

Then take a look at all of the strategies that fall into your chosen category.

Search keywords related to the type of strategy you want to find. 

Backtest them and see how they perform.

Again, chances are very good that they won’t work.

But they might.

Worst case scenario, they will give you a good starting point and ideas for your own strategy.

This is a huge benefit of the TradingView Community.

How to Create Your Own Strategy

Since many of the trading strategies on TradingView are free and open source, you can use them to help build your own strategy quickly.

First find a free strategy that you want to build on.

Then create your own Pine Script project by clicking on the Pine Editor tab at the bottom of the screen.

TradingView Pine Editor

Copy and paste an existing strategy into the Pine Script tab and start making adjustments.

Save the strategy, then run a backtest.

Yes, you need to learn Pine Script.

But most programming tutorials can be very boring.

When you know what you want and you have a starting template to get there, learning becomes much more fun and you’ll usually see results faster.

Focus on the parts of the current script that you want to change and go from there.

To sign up for TradingView, go here.

Considerations of Historical Data Availability

When using the backtesting function in TradingView, it is important to understand how much historical data is being tested in each test.

Data availability will vary by market and timeframe.

Higher timeframe charts like the daily, weekly and monthly charts will usually have enough data to do valid tests.

But on lower timeframes, such as the 4-hour chart and below, the historical data is very limited.

You may only have access to two or three years of data, which is never sufficient to do a thorough backtest.

Be sure to read more about how to how many trades you need to have confidence in a trading strategy.

If you require the entire data set for a particular market, you’ll need to subscribe to the Deep Backtesting feature, which is only available on the higher tier paid plans.

This is a big downside of the platform.

If you don’t want to pay the higher TradingView monthly fee, there are other solutions such as Naked Markets, which usually provides much more historical data than TradingView and free ongoing data updates, for just a one-time investment.

Limitations and Downsides

Here are the limitations of TradingView to be aware of:

  • The backtesting function is only available on TradingView paid plans.
  • TradingView lacks sufficient historical trading data on the lower tier plans. It can be enough data on the higher timeframes, such as the daily chart. As you move down to lower time frames like the 4-hour or 1-hour chart, you may only get two or three years of data, which is not enough. You have to pay more for Deep Backtesting to get more comprehensive data.
  • There’s no way to upload your own historical data.
  • You can only backtest one market, strategy and timeframe at a time. There is currently no way to backtest multiple variables simultaneously.
  • No offline testing.
  • The reporting metrics are decent, but still limited. I would like to see more detailed backtesting statistics.
  • Although TradingView’s backtesting function is useful, it is not a substitute for live trading. You should still exercise caution and not rely solely on backtesting results. Be sure to implement Forward Testing before risking real money on a strategy.

While TradingView’s backtesting function has its limitations and costs, it can be a valuable tool for testing trading strategies quickly.

Conclusion

Based on my experience with the backtesting function in TradingView, it’s not for everyone.

It only really makes sense if you can do 2 things:

  1. Code in Pine Script
  2. Subscribe to a paid plan that has Deep Backtesting capability

One big benefit of the backtesting feature is that you can test community-created trading strategies and scripts.

Unfortunately, most of them are useless. That’s no different than any other platform.

But they can be an excellent starting point to give you ideas for your own strategy.

If you want to backtest manually, TradingView also has a Bar Replay function that will eliminate the need to learn Pine Script.

So at the end of the day, backtesting in TradingView can make sense for some traders, but it’s not for everyone.

That said, I strongly feel that TradingView is the best charting platform available and I highly recommend it for that.

 

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