The US economy is in “a new bull market,” according to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist.

Wilson says in a new interview with Bloomberg TV that Morgan Stanley believes the economy had been in a three-year rolling recession that ended in April.

“Now we’re in a new bull market and capital markets activity is just another sign that that analysis or that conclusion is probably correct.”

The Morgan Stanley executive believes there could be volatility and drawdowns in the third quarter, but he also thinks that such corrections wouldn’t invalidate the bull market thesis.

“We’ve said that the third quarter, we think this is the best chance we could have for some correction or moderation, if you will. But I want to be very clear, it is still early in the new bull market, so you want to be buying these dips.”

Wilson also outlines what he believes needs to happen for the bull market to continue.

“I think to continue the bull market, you need two things. The ingredients you need [include] positive rate of change on growth. Okay, we have that from an earnings standpoint. And you have a policy that isn’t inhibiting that growth. So both fiscal and monetary policy look like they’re okay. And it appears as if the Fed, maybe they’re not going to cut [rates] in the short term, but all signs point to the next move will be a cut. So you have supportive policy, you have positive rate of change, you have good flow dynamics. I mean, those are all the ingredients you need.”  

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Crypto Reporter

Shalini Nagarajan

Crypto Reporter

Shalini Nagarajan

About Author

Shalini is a crypto reporter who provides in-depth reports on daily developments and regulatory shifts in the cryptocurrency sector.

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Last updated: 

June 23, 2025

Crypto exchange OKX is weighing a potential initial public offering in the US, just two months after settling with US authorities and relaunching its operations in the country, according to a report from The Information.

The move would mark a sharp turnaround for the Seychelles-registered exchange, which exited the US market after a series of regulatory violations.

In February, OKX agreed to pay over $504m in penalties to settle charges brought by the Department of Justice.

OKX Makes a Big Return to US Markets

Prosecutors said the company operated an unlicensed money-transmitting business and failed to implement basic anti-money laundering controls. Between 2017 and its exit, OKX allegedly processed more than $1 trillion in trades for US users despite policies suggesting otherwise.

Just two months later, OKX announced its return to the US market. The company set up a regional headquarters in San Jose, California, and tapped Roshan Robert, a former executive at Morgan Stanley and Barclays, as its US CEO.

At the time, Robert said the firm’s re-entry reflected “a commitment to responsible growth” and added that OKX was working closely with regulators to stay compliant.

The exchange has been working to rebuild its reputation, particularly in the eyes of US regulators. Its leadership has framed the relaunch not as a relabeling effort, but as a strategic reset focused on transparency and adherence to evolving US crypto laws.

IPO Plans Signal Ambition, but Regulatory Hurdles Still Loom

A listing on a US stock exchange would mark a big shift for OKX, potentially opening the door to greater institutional trust and a broader investor base. The company has not yet filed paperwork with the SEC, and the timeline remains unclear.

OKX is not alone in exploring a public offering. Bullish, backed by investor Peter Thiel, and Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, have both confidentially filed for IPOs in recent months.

Meanwhile, stablecoin issuer Circle recently closed an oversubscribed listing valuing it at nearly $8.1b on a fully diluted basis.

However, regulatory scrutiny continues to shadow OKX. In May, Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission said it planned to shut down certain exchanges, including OKX, for operating without a license.

If OKX proceeds with a US IPO, it will gauge investor interest while also revealing how much leeway regulators are willing to give crypto firms after past violations.

May 5th Bitfinex alpha | April Close Sets up Bitcoin in the Summer

Bitcoin closed in April, earning a monthly profit of 14.08%, surpassing the historic April average, and reversing the course after a sudden revision of the month. The rally highlights the resilience of assets amid changing macroeconomic turbulence and risk sentiment, as Bitcoin rose more than 32% from its April low, nearing $98,000. Restoring the $95,000 level (lower limit of the previous three-month range) is currently a critical technical threshold. Holding this zone will allow us to lay the foundation for returning to the all-time high, especially as BTC integrates beyond the $93,340 short-term holder cost base.

On-Chain Data supports this story. Minor reserves remained stable, and Puer multiples mostly suggest incentives for large minor sales, indicating confidence in further benefits. Short-term dependency symptoms regarding whether BTC can convert this recall into sustainable support will continue to loosen the bullishness of the structure signal.

The US economy showed surface-level resilience in April, adding 177,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation increased, with key sectors such as education, healthcare and hospitality continuing to hire. However, wage growth slows to 0.2% per month and 3.8% per year, with job openings declining, and certain industries such as lost employment in manufacturing and retail are signatures of the cooling labor market.

These positive headlines hide deeper structural issues as companies may have “labor storage” after past employment struggles, and employment reports are considered as indicators of delays. Meanwhile, consumer spending appears to be stable on the surface, but the cracks below become apparent. A temporary surge in equipment investments has increased private investment numbers, but the broader economic momentum remains weak. Imports surged by more than 40%, widening the trade deficit, and reduced GDP by 0.3% in the first quarter. This is mainly because businesses will front-load their goods prior to the tariff hike.

Consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since 2020, with expectations indexes historically falling to levels related to recession. The growing concerns about income, job security and inflation caught up in the ongoing trade tensions have weighed heavily on emotions. As inflationary pressures from tariffs develop and household income growth slows, the US faces a volatile economic slowdown.

In the Cryptosphere, Nexo has rejoined the US market after two years of exit, citing a more favorable regulatory environment and political support, particularly under the pro-cryptostance of the Trump campaign. The company is currently aiming to provide fully compliant crypto-assisted financial products, reflecting a wider industry shift towards collaboration with regulators. Meanwhile, Arizona House could pass two bills that would allow the state to invest up to 10% of its funds in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, potentially becoming the first US nation to hold crypto in the Treasury and the retirement system, but the outcome remains uncertain as it warns for Gov. Hobbs to be related to a widespread budget. Throughout the Atlantic, the UK government has introduced legislation to regulate crypto platforms, emphasize consumer protection and transparency, and to strengthen cooperation with the US to establish a framework for transatlantic regulation. Finally, the SEC has concluded its investigation of PayPal’s Stablecoin Pyusd without enforcement action, showing clarity of the potential regulations of Stablecoins and strengthening PayPal’s position in the evolving digital asset environment.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-april-close-sets-up-bitcoin-in-the-summer/feed/ 0 42896 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-trade-deficit-plummets-by-76700000000-in-april-following-the-rollout-of-trumps-tariffs/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-trade-deficit-plummets-by-76700000000-in-april-following-the-rollout-of-trumps-tariffs/#respond Fri, 06 Jun 2025 15:53:56 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-trade-deficit-plummets-by-76700000000-in-april-following-the-rollout-of-trumps-tariffs/

The US trade deficit plummeted by $76.7 billion in April following the rollout of the Trump Administration’s wave of tariffs.

The total goods and services deficit was $61.6 billion in April, down from $138.3 billion in March, per a new report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The US clocked $289.4 billion worth of exports in April, $8.3 billion more than March, and $351.0 billion worth of imports, which was $68.4 billion less than the previous month.

“The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $75.2 billion to $87.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $1.5 billion to $25.8 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $179.3 billion, or 65.7 percent, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $58.4 billion or 5.5 percent. Imports increased $237.8 billion or 17.8 percent.”

The US trade deficit skyrocketed in March as consumers and businesses stockpiled ahead of Trump’s tariffs.

The future of those tariffs remains uncertain as rulings about their legality ping-pong back and forth through the US court system.

Last week, the United States Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that many of the duties exceed the authority granted to the president by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The federal court struck down Trump’s April 2nd executive order establishing tariffs against 57 countries worldwide and several follow-up executive orders modifying the duties’ rates and start dates.

The CIT also axed a slew of earlier tariffs Trump had applied to Mexico, Canada and China, which he claimed were retaliation for failing to stop the flood of illegal narcotics into the US.

The Trump Administration immediately appealed the CIT’s ruling and requested a stay on the judgment, which the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted.

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Microsoft says the April 2025 security updates are causing authentication issues on some Windows Server 2025 domain controllers.

The list of impacted platforms includes Windows Server 2016, Windows Server 2019, Windows Server 2022, and the latest version, Windows Server 2025.

However, as the company further explained, home users are unlikely to be affected by this known issue since domain controllers are typically used for business and enterprise authentication.

“After installing the April Windows monthly security update released April 8, 2025 (KB5055523) or later, Active Directory Domain Controllers (DC) might experience issues when processing Kerberos logons or delegations using certificate-based credentials that rely on key trust via the Active Directory msds-KeyCredentialLink field,” Microsoft said in a Windows release health update.

“This can result in authentication issues in Windows Hello for Business (WHfB) Key Trust environments or environments that have deployed Device Public Key Authentication (also known as Machine PKINIT).”

These problems could also impact software relying on these two features for authentication, including but not limited to third-party single sign-on (SSO) solutions, identity management systems, and smart card authentication products.

Affected auth protocols include Kerberos Public Key Cryptography for Initial Authentication (Kerberos PKINIT) and Certificate-based Service-for-User Delegation (S4U) via Kerberos Resource-Based Constrained Delegation (RBKCD or A2DF Delegation) or Kerberos Constrained Delegation (KCD or A2D2 Delegation).

Auth issues linked to CVE-2025-26647 security patches

According to Microsoft, these issues are linked to security measures designed to mitigate a high-severity vulnerability tracked as CVE-2025-26647 that can let authenticated attackers escalate privileges remotely by exploiting an improper input validation weakness in Windows Kerberos, which superseded NTLM as the new default auth protocol for domain-connected devices on all Windows versions released since Windows 2000.

“An attacker who successfully exploited this vulnerability could be assigned much greater rights by the Key Distribution Center to the certificate than intended,” Redmond explains.

“An authenticated attacker could exploit this vulnerability by obtaining a certificate containing the target Subject Key Identifier (SKI) value from a Certificate Authority (CA). The attacker could then use this certificate to get a Ticket Granting Ticket (TGT) for the target user from the Key Distribution Center (KDC).”

As a workaround, affected customers are advised to switch the AllowNtAuthPolicyBypass registry value in HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SYSTEM\CurrentControlSet\Services\Kdc from “2” to “1” as detailed in this support document.

Last month, Microsoft mitigated another known issue causing authentication problems on Windows 11 and Windows Server 2025 devices using the Kerberos PKINIT security protocol when Credential Guard is enabled.

Redmond also released emergency out-of-band (OOB) updates in November 2022 to fix a bug causing Kerberos sign-in failures and other auth problems on domain controllers.

One year earlier, it addressed authentication failures related to Kerberos delegation scenarios on Windows Server and similar Kerberos auth problems impacting domain-connected devices running Windows 2000 and later.

Data from Solscan shows that daily token mints consistently averaged between 30,000 and 55,000 during the reporting period.

This spike was driven primarily by memecoins, many of which were launched through Pump.fun.

Pump.fun is a platform that allows users to mint and trade meme-themed tokens through a simplified and user-friendly interface. Its design eliminates the need for technical skills and incorporates safeguards to minimize common security risks.

As a result, the protocol has become a dominant force in the crypto industry, allowing memecoins to play a central role in Solana’s on-chain activity.

A report from asset management firm VanEck shows that memecoins accounted for 44% of decentralized exchange (DEX) volume on Solana in January 2025 and 35% in April.

When excluding stablecoins, SOL, and liquid staking tokens, which typically sit on the other side of these trades, memecoins represented 99% of trading volume in January and 95% in April.

Due to memecoins’ popularity, Solana and Pump.fun have generated record fees this year.

According to Token Terminal data, Pump.fun has generated $296 million in transaction fees year-to-date, while Solana has drawn $414 million over the same period.

The post Solana sees 1.2 million new SPL tokens in April with memecoins taking center stage appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Many American students enjoy a break from their studies during Spring Break in April. Investors, it seems, decided to take a hiatus from Udemy (UDMY -2.77%) then, too, as they traded out of the stock to leave it with an almost 12% loss in price over the month. Let’s explore the reasons why, and whether the decline leaves the education company attractively priced.

A new C-suite appointment and analyst downgrade

Udemy didn’t exactly pull into April on a high note. In mid-March, the company somewhat unexpectedly replaced its CEO Greg Brown with Hugo Sarrazin, a tech executive who did a 26-year stint at consultancy McKinsey & Company. Sudden transitions at the top have a way of unnerving shareholders, so sentiment was already a bit wobbly when April Fool’s Day rolled around.

Image source: Getty Images.

This wasn’t helped by an analyst downgrade that hit the headlines less than a week later. Truist Securities analyst Terry Tillman changed his recommendation to hold from the preceding buy. He also enacted a 30% cut to his price target, reducing it to $7 per share from $10.

According to reports, Tillman pointed out one major concern investors had (and continue to have) about Udemy — as an education company targeting adult learners, it falls into the non-discretionary consumer goods category.

Just now, there is a growing fear of economic recession, caused by factors such as the Trump administration’s patchily aggressive set of tariffs. In recessions, people typically pull back on non-discretionary spending.

Tillman also expressed concern with the CEO change, in addition to the company’s exposure to large enterprise and international clients. He lowered his revenue estimates accordingly and added that the company is now fairly priced despite its outwardly attractive valuations. In the analyst’s view, there are better, cheaply valued stock buys that carry less risk.

Meeting expectations

Udemy finished April by reporting its first-quarter results on the last day of the month.

This drove the stock price down a bit more, even though non-GAAP (adjusted) net income more than tripled year over year to nearly $17.9 million. Investors might have been more focused on the top line, which only ticked up by 2% year over year (to slightly more than $200 million).

They might also have been unimpressed that the two line items only notched slight beats on analyst estimates, or that current (second) quarter and full-year guidance was broadly in line with pundit expectations.

I don’t think Udemy is a bad stock, but even at the current reduced valuation, it doesn’t feel like a potential big winner. That recession-induced slowdown that some fear is a real possibility, too.