answered – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sat, 30 Aug 2025 07:13:08 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.8 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 answered – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Future Perfect mailbag: Is AI lying? And other reader questions, answered. https://earlybirdsinvest.com/future-perfect-mailbag-is-ai-lying-and-other-reader-questions-answered/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/future-perfect-mailbag-is-ai-lying-and-other-reader-questions-answered/#respond Sat, 30 Aug 2025 07:13:08 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/future-perfect-mailbag-is-ai-lying-and-other-reader-questions-answered/

For the last few years, we’ve been asking Future Perfect newsletter readers what their biggest questions are. And while we usually answer privately, we figured we’d try something new: a reader mailbag!

This week, we’ve answered questions from three readers on classic FP issues: artificial intelligence, animal welfare coverage, and, of course, altruistic kidney donations. We’d like to do more of these, so if your question wasn’t featured — or privately answered — please stay in touch for a chance to be included in the future.

Sign up here to explore the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them. Sent twice a week.

We’re also kicking off the process for our annual Future Perfect list of changemakers. We’re looking for experts, humanitarians, activists, movers, and shakers in global health, broadly speaking.

If there is someone you want to nominate, a topic you want explained, or a question you want us to answer in the future, fill out this form or email us at futureperfect@vox.com. — Izzie Ramirez, deputy editor

By which methods can one ascertain that whatever is produced by AI is exact and truthful?

For any question you’re considering asking an AI model, the first thing you need to do is think about its epistemic nature: Is the answer knowable in an objective way? Or is it subjective?

The best use case is a situation where it’s hard for you to come up with the answer, but once you get an answer from the AI, you can easily check to see if it’s correct. I find chatbots particularly helpful for semantic search — that is, cases where I say, “There’s some psychology theory or idea in philosophy that basically says XYZ, but I can’t remember what it’s called or who said it, help!” The chatbot will give its best guess, and then I can just fact-check that.

A person works at a computer with an illustrative image generated by artificial intelligence on the screen, showing code from various programming languages and a neural network diagram.

ILLUSTRATION – 17 May 2024, North Rhine-Westphalia, Cologne: A person works at a computer with an illustrative image generated by artificial intelligence on the screen, showing code from various programming languages and a neural network diagram. At the meeting of telecommunications ministers on May 21, the EU countries are expected to finally adopt the AI law in the EU. The European Parliament had already given the green light for the project beforehand. Photo: Oliver Berg/dpa (Photo by Oliver Berg/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Oliver Berg/picture alliance via Getty Images

Same with other empirical facts that are verifiable through observation or data — anything from “What’s the boiling temperature for water?” to “Is it true that humans share 98.8 percent of their DNA with chimpanzees?” While you can easily verify the first by yourself through observation, you’ll need to rely on experts’ data for the second. In that case, you need to feel confident that what’s produced by your fellow humans is exact and truthful. We’ve developed tools that increase our confidence, like the scientific method, so if you’re consulting scientific experts, you can at least have some degree of confidence that they’re reporting observable and repeatable facts.

Then there are domains that are inherently subjective. If you’ve got the type of question for which there is no One True Answer, you’ll want to be more hesitant about using AI. I think ethical dilemmas fall into this category; no matter how much OpenAI tries to create a “universal verifier,” AI will always be limited in its ability to advise you on how to handle an ethical dilemma, because there’s no One True Ethics. So, you might see what thoughts an AI model provokes in you, but don’t trust it as giving you the final answer, especially if what it’s saying seems off to you. In other words, you can use it as a thought partner, but don’t treat it like an oracle.

— Sigal Samuel, senior reporter

Ok, after more than five years as a vegan and 73 years on the planet, I want to know why the great majority of journalists consistently abandon everything they learned about objectivity when it comes to a multitude of issues with the monster industry known as “animal agriculture?” And I want to know how to combat that bias effectively.

It is a huge blind spot for most of them. My best guess is the conditioning is so strong. It starts as a toddler, is reinforced by the parental relationship, expands to extended family, friends, reinforced again by all types of advertising media, entertainment, etc. Then they go to journalism school and are taught by instructors who also have this blind spot.

So later a reporter will go to a “chicken farm” and empathize with them when they tell their story about losing thousands of birds to avian flu — their sense of loss is not about the birds; it’s about the money. The reporter presents the story without questioning the basics. Things like “where are all the male birds?” [and] “how is it possible for anyone to think that 35,000 birds could be forced to live together in a building without reasonable access to the outdoors?” and “why does it smell so bad?” and “why do you have permission to confine animals without their permission?”

I think the reason is pretty simple: Journalists are people with their own biases, just like everyone else. That’s evident in how little coverage factory farming receives in the first place — it involves the abuse of billions of animals and hundreds of thousands of workers, and is a leading cause of many of our environmental problems, yet only a handful of US journalists write about it full-time (including yours truly). Most news outlets and editors don’t take factory farming seriously, which is why I’m proud to work at Vox, where we do.

That’s the most fundamental problem. But secondarily, while there is plenty of fantastic coverage of factory farming, more often than not, I find I’m disappointed with a lot of it, too. I see a few recurring issues:

  • Animal welfare is overlooked or entirely ignored. For example, it’s not uncommon for news stories about barn fires that kill thousands of animals to conclude that “no one was hurt,” or for a story about hundreds of thousands of egg-laying hens killed to slow the spread of bird flu to gloss over the brutal nature of that killing.
  • Deference to meat producers and companies, or scientists employed by or affiliated with industry, including misleading comments that go unchallenged.
  • “Agriculture” is often cited as a major source of environmental pollution, when animal agriculture is disproportionately responsible.
  • Uncritical stories about proposed solutions to animal agriculture’s impact on the climate, like methane-reducing feed additives or manure biodigesters. Or uncritical coverage of companies that claim to treat their animals better than the competition (see our recent story on Fairlife milk).

I’ve written one story about how the media could cover these issues better, and I hope to keep covering that in the future.

Kenny Torrella, senior reporter

Stories like Dylan Matthews’s years ago led me to investigate donating a kidney to a stranger. I asked my doctor about it, and surprisingly, instead of encouraging me to save a life, he tried to talk me out of it.

He told me that it is illegal to donate a kidney to a stranger! I live in Hong Kong, and maybe the reason for prohibiting even the donation of a kidney to a stranger is the fear that people would secretly accept payment from the kidney recipient. But I don’t know why. Anyway, I thought about donating while on a vacation in the US, but it would require too much time, so I gave up.

Unfortunately, my second kidney will probably die with me in old age, and someone with kidney failure will needlessly die. Anyway, maybe another story idea would be about paying kidney providers in countries other than the US?

Most people aren’t as generous as you!

In the US, only a sliver of living donations go to strangers. Meanwhile, over 100,000 people sit on kidney waitlists. And, as you indicate, the need for kidneys is a global problem, too.

Many places only allow donations to relatives or known recipients (or require tough ethics reviews for unrelated donors), while a minority — like the US, UK, Canada, and Australia — offer a formal pathway for anonymous “good Samaritan” donors. In Hong Kong, where you’re based, you can donate to a family member easily, but unrelated donations need official approval, and there’s no standard program for that. (That’s probably why you were discouraged.)

This patchwork exists for a reason.

In the 1990s and 2000s, there was a serious trafficking and transplant tourism problem. In 2007, the WHO estimated that about 5–10 percent of kidney transplants involved trafficking, and countries like the Philippines and Pakistan became hubs for foreign patients buying organs from desperate locals.
Transplant experts met in Istanbul in 2008 and wrote what became the worldwide rulebook. The Istanbul Declaration pushed countries to crack down on coercive sales of organs. Every country had its own laws, but began incorporating the declaration’s recommendations. As a result, transplant tourism dropped sharply in Israel and the Philippines once new rules kicked in, and tighter oversight became the norm across Europe.

A sign on the back of a vehicle pleading for someone to donate a kidney to a sick man in Ontario, Canada.

A sign on the back of a vehicle pleading for someone to donate a kidney to a sick man in Ontario, Canada.
Creative Touch Imaging Ltd./NurPhoto via Getty Images

But, in its efforts to shut down trafficking, the declaration argued that compensating donors at all “leads inexorably to inequity and injustice.” There was little empirical data to back that claim, but because it came from a major international statement it hardened into gospel: organ donation must be “financially neutral.”

But neutrality isn’t actually neutral in practice. Living donors lose wages, take time off work, take medical risk, and sometimes even face higher insurance premiums after donating. We don’t call that exploitation — but it is a penalty for doing the right thing.

And it’s inconsistent with how we treat other socially valuable, risky, or unpleasant work. We pay people to do jury duty. We pay clinical trial participants. In many places, we even pay plasma donors.

There is one striking exception: Iran.

It’s the only country with a regulated system that pays kidney donors. Iran established this system in 1988, and today performs about 2,500-2,700 kidney transplants annually, and it claims to have essentially eliminated its waiting list. It’s a proof-of-concept that incentives can be structured.

The US debate is inching in that direction. Congress’s End Kidney Deaths Act would offer a federal tax credit to people who donate a kidney to a stranger. Donors would receive a $10,000 tax credit annually for five years, so not quite direct payment, but certainly a help. The act, which has not been voted on yet, acknowledges that donation involves real costs: time off work, medical risks, recovery time.
The path forward globally isn’t throwing out Istanbul’s anti-trafficking work, but to build on it with smart incentives and guardrails so people can donate altruistically if they want to. That means actually testing new approaches, but doing it carefully. Give donors independent advocates, make sure there’s time to think it over, and guarantee lifelong follow-up care.

In the meantime, you might not be able to easily donate your kidney to a stranger right now in Hong Kong, but the needle is moving in the right direction.

— Pratik Pawar, Future Perfect fellow

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5 questions about a potential Democratic Tea Party, answered https://earlybirdsinvest.com/5-questions-about-a-potential-democratic-tea-party-answered/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/5-questions-about-a-potential-democratic-tea-party-answered/#respond Mon, 07 Jul 2025 04:53:42 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/5-questions-about-a-potential-democratic-tea-party-answered/

Last weekend, my colleague Christian Paz wrote about how the Democratic Party could be on the brink of a grassroots takeover, similar to what the GOP experienced with the Tea Party movement. It’s a fascinating piece that could have huge ramifications for Democratic politics, so I sat down with him to chat about his reporting for Vox’s daily newsletter, Today, Explained.

Our conversation is below, and you can sign up for the newsletter here for more conversations like this.

Hey, Christian, how are you? Remind us what the original Tea Party was. What is this movement we’re talking about?

The movement that I’m talking about started before Obama was elected. It was a mostly libertarian, grassroots, localized, not-that-big movement — a reaction to the bailouts at the end of the Bush administration. The idea being there’s too much deficit spending and government is becoming way too big and becoming unmoored from constitutional limited-government principles.

It evolved when Obama was elected into a broader anti-Obama backlash and then a major explosion because of the Affordable Care Act fights. It basically turned into an effort to primary incumbent Republicans, an effort to move the party more toward this wing and eventually try to win back control of Congress.

After it took off, what happened to the GOP?

They were able to win, I believe, five out of the 10 Senate seats that they were challenging. Something like 40 members of Congress were Tea Party-affiliated.

The primary thing was that they were successful in massively mobilizing Republican voters and getting people to turn out in the 2010 midterms, which turned out to be one of the biggest “shellackings,” as Obama called it, that Democrats or that any incumbent president and their party had sustained. Democrats lost control of the House and lost seats in the Senate, and that was a massive setback.

From then on, what happened was a successful move by more conservative primary challengers in future elections, the most iconic one being in 2014 — the primary that ousted Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, in favor of a Tea Party activist. It also forced the party as a whole to move to the right, making it more combative, more extreme, and more captive to a more ideological part of the Republican base.

Why are we hearing about this now with the Democratic Party?

The underlying idea is that there’s a divide between the establishment Democrats and populist-minded progressive Democratic candidates. And that’s part of the reason why we’re hearing this now, because there was a victory in New York City’s mayoral primary by Zohran Mamdani, a candidate who is fully in that latter category — a self-described democratic socialist appealing to this idea of bringing out new parts of the electorate, mobilizing people with populist appeal, with targeted, non-polished messaging, and taking more left-leaning positions on policy.

The big thing fueling talk about this Tea Party moment for Democrats is that the base has never really been as angry as it is right now. What we’re seeing is a combination of anti-Trump anger, wanting a change in direction, wanting a change in leadership, and also some folks who are like, Maybe we should become more progressive as a party.

So tell me about that. A change in leadership, a change in the establishment — what does this movement actually want?

It’s interesting. Because at least back with the original Tea Party movement, you could point to a core list of priorities there were about repealing Obamacare, about never repeating a bailout, about limiting the federal government’s ability to spend.

Something like that doesn’t exist right now, because it is a pretty disparate energy. The core thing is Democratic voters do not want the current leadership in Congress. They don’t like Hakeem Jeffries’s style of leadership in the House. They don’t like Chuck Schumer’s style of leadership in the Senate. There’s frustration at older members of Congress being in Congress and serving in leadership capacity right now.

In the polling, over and over again, we see, Democrats should be focused on providing a working-class vision for Americans. They should be more focused on kitchen table affordability issues. And that is the thing that most Democratic voters can actually agree on, and basically saying that that’s not what they think their current leadership is focused on.

What would it look like for the Democratic Party if this actually happens?

There are some strategists and activists who are drawing up lists of potential candidates to primary. There are already some challenges underway. I’m thinking of some House seats in Arizona, House seats in Illinois. There’s talk, especially after this New York City mayoral contest, about primarying Kirsten Gillibrand or Chuck Schumer and finding challengers to some more moderate House members in the New York area.

I’d be looking to see if there actually are younger people launching primary campaigns targeting older or centrist Democratic members of Congress. Once we get to primary season next year, how successful in fundraising are these candidates? Is there an actual effort by some established progressive members of the House to try to support some of these younger candidates?

Basically, just seeing if there’s money there, if there’s actual interest there in supporting these candidates, and whether we do see primary challenges in New York, in Massachusetts, be successful.

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