One of the important indicators of how much load the Ethereum blockchain can safely handle is how the uncle rate responds to the gas usage of a transaction. In all blockchains of the Satoshian proof-of-work variety, any block that is published has the risk of howbecoming a “stale”, ie. not being part of the main chain, because another miner published a competing block before the recently published block reached them, leading to a situation where there is a “race” between two blocks and so one of the two will necessarily be left behind.

One important fact is that the more transactions a block contains (or the more gas a block uses), the longer it will take to propagate through the network. In the Bitcoin network, one seminal study on this was Decker and Wattenhofer (2013), which found that the average propagation time of a block was about 2 seconds plus another 0.08 seconds per kilobyte in the block (ie. a 1 MB block would take ~82 seconds). A more recent Bitcoin Unlimited study showed that this has since reduced to ~0.008 seconds per kilobyte due to transaction propagation technology improvements. We can also see that if a block takes longer to propagate, the chance that it will become a stale is higher; at a block time of 600 seconds, a propagation time increase of 1 second should correspond to an increased 1/600 chance of being left behind.

In Ethereum, we can make a similar analysis, except that thanks to Ethereum’s “uncle” mechanic we have very solid data to analyze from. Stale blocks in Ethereum can be re-included into the chain as “uncles”, where they receive up to 75% of their original block reward. This mechanic was originally introduced to reduce centralization pressures, by reducing the advantage that well-connected miners have over poorly connected miners, but it also has several side benefits, one of which is that stale blocks are tracked for all time in a very easily searchable database – the blockchain itself. We can take a data dump of blocks 1 to 2283415 (before the Sep 2016 attacks) as a source of data for analysis.

Here is a script to generate some source data: http://github.com/ethereum/research/tree/master/uncle_regressions/block_datadump_generator.py

Here is the source data: http://github.com/ethereum/research/tree/master/uncle_regressions/block_datadump.csv

The columns, in order, represent block number, number of uncles in the block, the total uncle reward, the total gas consumed by uncles, the number of transactions in the block, the gas consumed by the block, the length of the block in bytes, and the length of the block in bytes excluding zero bytes.

We can then use this script to analyze it: http://github.com/ethereum/research/tree/master/uncle_regressions/base_regression.py

The results are as follows. In general, the uncle rate is consistently around 0.06 to 0.08, and the average gas consumed per block is around 100000 to 300000. Because we have the gas consumed of both blocks and uncles, we run a linear regression to estimate of how much 1 unit of gas adds to the probability that a given block will be an uncle. The coefficients turn out to be as follows:

Block 0 to 200k: 3.81984698029e-08
Block 200k to 400k: 5.35265798406e-08
Block 400k to 600k: 2.33638832951e-08
Block 600k to 800k: 2.12445242166e-08
Block 800k to 1000k: 2.7023102773e-08
Block 1000k to 1200k: 2.86409050022e-08
Block 1200k to 1400k: 3.2448993833e-08
Block 1400k to 1600k: 3.12258208662e-08
Block 1600k to 1800k: 3.18276549008e-08
Block 1800k to 2000k: 2.41107348445e-08
Block 2000k to 2200k: 1.99205804032e-08
Block 2200k to 2285k: 1.86635688756e-08

Hence, each 1 million gas worth of transactions that gets included in a block now adds ~1.86% to the probability that that block will become an uncle, though during Frontier this was closer to 3-5%. The “base” (ie. uncle rate of a 0-gas block) is consistently ~6.7%. For now, we will leave this result as it is and not make further conclusions; there is one further complication that I will discuss later at least with regard to the effect that this finding has on gas limit policy.

Gas pricing

Another issue that touches uncle rates and transaction propagation is gas pricing. In Bitcoin development discussions, a common argument is that block size limits are unnecessary because miners already have a natural incentive to limit their block sizes, which is that every kilobyte they add increases the stale rate and hence threatens their block reward. Given the 8 sec per megabyte impedance found by the Bitcoin Unlimited study, and the fact that each second of impedance corresponds to a 1/600 chance of losing a 12.5 BTC block reward, this suggests an equilibrium transaction fee of 0.000167 BTC per kilobyte assuming no block size limits.

In Bitcoin’s environment, there are reasons to be long-term skeptical about the economics of such a no-limit incentive model, as there will eventually be no block reward, and when the only thing that miners have to lose from including too many transactions is fees from their other transactions, then there is an economic argument that the equilibrium stale rate will be as high as 50%. However, there are modifications that can be made to the protocol to limit this coefficient.

In Ethereum’s current environment, block rewards are 5 ETH and will stay that way until the algorithm is changed. Accepting 1 million gas means a 1.86% chance of the block becoming an uncle. Fortunately, Ethereum’s uncle mechanism has a happy side effect here: the average uncle reward is recently around 3.2 ETH, so 1 million gas only means a 1.86% chance of putting 1.8 ETH at risk, ie. an expected loss of 0.033 ETH and not 0.093 as would be the case without an uncle mechanism. Hence, the current gas prices of ~21 shannon are actually quite close to the “economically rational” gas price of 33 shannon (this is before the DoS attacks and the optimizations arising therefrom; now it is likely even lower).

The simplest way to push the equilibrium gasprice down further is to improve uncle inclusion mechanics and try to get uncles included in blocks as quickly as possible (perhaps by separately propagating every block as a “potential uncle header”); at the limit, if every uncle is included as quickly as possible, the equilibrium gas price would go down to about 11 shannon.

Is Data Underpriced?

A second linear regression analysis can be done with source code here: http://github.com/ethereum/research/tree/master/uncle_regressions/tx_and_bytes_regression.py

The purpose here is to see if, after accounting for the above computed coefficients for gas, there is a correlation with the number of transactions or with the size of a block in bytes left over. Unfortunately, we do not have block size or transaction count figures for uncles, so we have to resort to a more indirect trick that looks at blocks and uncles in groups of 50. The gas coefficients that this analysis finds are higher than the previous analysis: around 0.04 uncle rate per million gas. One possible explanation is that if a single block has a high propagation time, and it leads to an uncle, there is a 50% chance that that uncle is the high-propagation-time block, but there is also a 50% chance that the uncle will be the other block that it competes against. This theory matches well with the 0.04 per million “social uncle rate” and the ~0.02 per million “private uncle rate” finding; hence we will take it as the most likely explanation.

The regression finds that, after accounting for this social uncle rate, one byte accounts for an additional ~0.000002 uncle rate. Bytes in a transaction take up 68 gas, of which 61 gas accounts for its contribution to bandwidth (the remaining 7 is for bloating the history database). If we want the bandwidth coefficient and the computation coefficient in the gas table to both reflect propagation time, then this implies that if we wanted to really optimize gas costs, we would need to increase the gas cost per byte by 50 (ie. to 138). This would also entail raising the base gas cost of a transaction by 5500 (note: such a rebalance would not mean that everything gets more expensive; the gas limit would be raised by ~10% so that the average-case transaction throughput would remain unchanged). On the other hand, the risk of worst-case denial-of-service attacks is worse for execution than for data, and so execution requires larger safety factors. Hence, there is arguably not sufficiently strong evidence to do any re-pricings here at least for the time being.

One possible long-term protocol change would be to introduce separate gas pricing mechanisms for in-EVM execution and transaction data; the argument here is that the two are much easier to separate as transaction data can be computed separately from everything else, and so the optimal strategy may be to somehow allow the market to balance them; however, precise mechanisms for doing such a thing still need to be developed.

Gas Limit Policy

For an individual miner determining their gas price, the “private uncle rate” of 0.02 per million gas is the relevant statistic. From the point of view of the whole system, the “social uncle rate” of 0.04 per million gas is what matters. If we did not care about safety factors and were ok with an uncle rate of 0.5 uncles per block (meaning, a “51% attack” would only need 40% hashpower to succeed, actually not as bad as it sounds) then at least this analysis suggests that the gas limit could theoretically be raised to ~11 million (20 tx/sec given an average 39k gas per tx as is the case under current usage, or 37 tx/sec worth of simple sends). With the latest optimizations, this could be pushed even higher. However, since we do care about safety factors and prefer to have a lower uncle rate to alleviate centralization risks, 5.5 million is likely an optimal level for the gas limit, though in the medium term a “dynamic gas limit” formula that targets a particular block processing time would be a better approach, as it would be able to quickly and automatically adjust in response to attacks and risks.

Note that the concern about the centralization risks and the need for safety factors do not stack on top of each other. The reason is that during an active denial-of-service attack, the blockchain needs to survive, not be long-term economically centralization-resistant; the argument is that if the attacker’s goal was to economically encourage centralization, then the attacker could just donate money to the biggest pool in order to bribe other miners to join it.

In the future, we can expect virtual machine improvements to decrease uncle rates further, though improvements to networking are eventually going to be required as well. There is a limit to how much scalability is possible on a single chain, with the primary bottleneck being disk reads and writes, so after some point (likely 10-40 million gas) sharding will be the only way to process more transactions. If we just want to decrease equilibrium gas prices, then Casper will help substantially, by making the “slope” of uncle rate to gas consumption near-zero at least up to a certain point.

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

About Author

Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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Last updated: 

August 22, 2025

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals a dramatic recovery to $116,859 following a sharp rally from $112,320 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at September rate cuts, despite facing $1.17 billion in ETF outflows and institutional selling pressure throughout the week.

At the same time, Bitcoin maintains a bullish structure above all major EMAs, including 20-day ($113,982), 50-day ($115,333), 100-day ($116,164), and 200-day ($115,943) support levels, positioning for a potential breakout toward $120K resistance despite momentum weakening signals.

Bitcoin shows a healthy RSI at 62.75 with MACD remaining bullish at 328.20 but a negative histogram at -903.78, indicating momentum exhaustion, while moderate 10.83K BTC volume suggests institutional participation during the Powell-driven recovery rally.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis synthesizes 25 real-time technical indicators to assess BTC’s trajectory amid Federal Reserve policy shifts and institutional distribution pressure while navigating altcoin outperformance and market rotation dynamics.

Technical Analysis: Powell Rally Tests EMA Support Structure

Bitcoin’s current price of $116,859.35 reflects a dramatic intraday recovery despite a -4.04% daily decline from the opening price of $112,320.01, establishing a volatile trading range between $116,988.00 (high) and $111,684.79 (low).

This 4.5% intraday range demonstrates extreme volatility following Powell’s dovish comments, triggering risk-on sentiment.

The RSI at 62.75 maintains healthy neutral-bullish positioning without oversold conditions, providing balanced momentum for potential continuation.

Moving averages reveal exceptional bullish positioning with Bitcoin trading above all major EMAs: 20-day at $113,982 (+2.5%), 50-day at $115,333 (+1.3%), 100-day at $116,164 (+0.6%), and 200-day at $115,943 (+0.8%).

MACD shows a strong bullish structure at 328.20, well above zero, with the signal line at -575.59, but a concerning negative histogram at -903.78 suggests significant momentum deterioration.

Volume analysis shows moderate activity at 10.83K BTC, indicating steady institutional participation during Fed-driven volatility.

ATR maintains extremely high readings at 113,152.27, suggesting massive volatility potential for continued significant moves in either direction based on policy developments.

Market Context: Fed Policy Shift Overrides Institutional Distribution

Bitcoin’s recovery follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole comments hinting at September rate cuts, creating risk-on sentiment that overshadowed week-long institutional selling pressure.

The dovish pivot represents a fundamental catalyst as “markets respond at the hint of a rate cut” with potential for amplified moves upon actual implementation.

The broader context reveals institutional distribution challenges with Bitcoin ETFs facing $1.17 billion in outflows while major holders, including BlackRock and other institutions, have been systematically reducing positions.

Despite this selling pressure, Powell’s rate cut signals create renewed institutional interest in risk assets.

Altcoin outperformance demonstrates market rotation dynamics with Ethereum recovering above $4,800 and BNB achieving new all-time highs.

The 2025 trajectory shows resilience from February’s $84,373 low to current $116K levels, representing 38% appreciation.

Current positioning maintains proximity to July-August highs despite institutional selling.

Market Fundamentals: Strong Metrics Despite Distribution Pressure

Bitcoin maintains dominant positioning with $2.32 trillion market cap (+3.31%) despite institutional distribution challenges.

The market cap growth accompanies increased volume at $80.01 billion (+34.12%), indicating active institutional repositioning.

The 3.46% volume-to-market cap ratio suggests heightened trading activity supporting price stability during policy-driven volatility.

Circulating supply of 19.9 million BTC represents 94.8% of the maximum 21 million supply, with approaching scarcity supporting long-term value despite short-term distribution phases.

Market dominance of 61.40% shows slight weakness relative to altcoins during institutional rotation phases, while the -6.39% distance from August 14’s all-time high of $124,457 demonstrates proximity to recent peaks despite selling pressure.

Current pricing maintains extraordinary 239,486,002% gains from 2010 lows while trading near historic highs, validating Bitcoin’s institutional adoption trajectory despite temporary distribution pressures from ETF outflows and institutional profit-taking activities.

Social Sentiment: Exceptional Performance Amid Policy Catalyst

LunarCrush data reveals outstanding social performance with Bitcoin’s AltRank at #1 during Federal Reserve policy developments.

Galaxy Score of 90 reflects strong sentiment as participants process rate cut implications for risk asset positioning.

Engagement metrics show substantial activity with 5 million total engagements (-500K) while mentions surge to 500K (+100K), demonstrating heightened attention during policy catalyst events.

Social dominance of 43.06% maintains exceptional visibility while sentiment registers at a robust 80% positive despite institutional distribution.

Recent social themes focus on Powell’s dovish pivot, with community discussions emphasizing “false breakdown confirmed” and “inverse head and shoulders” technical patterns.

Notable analyst commentary includes predictions of $175K targets and comparisons to historical rate cut cycles, driving Bitcoin appreciation.

Prominent traders are also identifying double-bottom formations and potential for moves above $127K before Q3 ends.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin Analysis: Fed Policy Catalyst Meets Technical Resistance

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals Bitcoin benefiting from Federal Reserve policy shift despite institutional distribution headwinds.

The recovery above all EMAs following Powell’s comments demonstrates monetary policy’s continued influence on Bitcoin positioning as a risk asset.

Immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA around $113,982, followed by strong support confluence at 50-day ($115,333) and 100-day ($116,164) EMAs.

The layered EMA support structure provides substantial downside protection during policy-driven volatility phases.

Resistance begins at today’s high around $116,988, followed by psychological $120K–$122K levels.

Volume patterns and MACD signals suggest institutional positioning continues despite surface distribution, while extreme ATR readings indicate potential for significant moves matching Federal Reserve policy implementation phases and institutional rotation dynamics.

Three-Month Bitcoin Price Forecast: Policy-Driven Scenarios

Rate Cut Rally (50% Probability)

Successful September rate cut implementation combined with continued dovish Fed policy could drive Bitcoin toward $125K–$130K, representing 7–11% upside from current levels.

This scenario requires sustained institutional confidence and policy follow-through validation.

Distribution Consolidation (30% Probability)

Continued institutional profit-taking could result in consolidation between $112K–$120K, allowing distribution completion while monetary policy provides underlying support for risk asset positioning.

Technical Correction (20% Probability)

A break below $113K EMA support could trigger selling toward $108K–$110K levels, representing 7–10% downside.

Recovery would depend on the Federal Reserve policy acceleration and institutional distribution completion.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin Analysis: Monetary Policy Catalyst Meets Distribution Phase

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals that Bitcoin is positioned for a potential policy-driven breakout despite institutional distribution pressures.

The combination of Fed dovish pivot with technical support above all EMAs suggests that monetary policy influence outweighs short-term selling pressure.

Next Price Target: $125K-$130K Within 90 Days

The immediate trajectory requires holding above $113K EMA support to validate policy catalyst strength over distribution pressure.

From there, the September rate cut implementation could propel Bitcoin toward $125K psychological resistance, with sustained dovish policy driving toward $130K+ breakout levels.

However, failure to hold $113K would signal extended consolidation toward $108K–$110K range, creating an accumulation opportunity before the next policy wave drives Bitcoin toward new all-time highs above $125K as monetary conditions become increasingly supportive.

What is happening to Bitcoin?

For quite some time Bitcoin has demonstrated no sign of positive dynamics. Since its all-time high in December 2017 (when 1BTC was worth almost $20 000) Bitcoin has lost over 80% of its value by December 2018. In February 2019 the world’s premiere cryptocurrency was traded at $3 400, which was just as low as in August 2017. The last time it took Bitcoin five months (August – December 2017) to get from $3 400 to $19 500. Five months have already passed since February, yet Bitcoin has ‘only’ reached the $12 800 mark so far*. Obviously, it takes BTC longer to reach the last record. Yet, the question is not how long will it take Bitcoin to grow, but rather how high will Bitcoin go this time and whether it is at all possible that it will reach a new high?

How to trade Bitcoin?

So, what does it mean for you as a trader? The most recent price surge — that has been in action for three months already — has created numerous trading opportunities and can be expected to create some more.
With Bitcoin prices as volatile as they come, it is hard to predict future performance of the asset. However, you can turn to technical analysis indicators to make an informed decision when trading CFDs on Bitcoin on the IQ Option trading platform.
All signals mentioned above have been received on a 30D graph with 12H candles.

Bollinger Bands, a popular volatility indicator, point to the end of one high-volatility period and the beginning of another. According to the former, a trend reversal is also possible: the BTC price has bounced off the upper band and can either continue to move down or go back up.

According to the trend-following indicator ADX, the overall trend strength is diminishing. Positive momentum is now on a par with negative one. It can very well be that the negative trend overtakes the positive one after a prolonged period of uncertainty. This is, however, not set in stone.

Chande Forecast Oscillator, a momentum indicator created with the purpose of estimating the future asset price, states that the future asset price might lower than the present price of Bitcoin. The indicator is below the zero line, yet it is slowly going up.
More than that, in order to go even higher, the price action will have to pass the resistance level at $ 12 800, the threshold that has not been cracked yet.
All in all, the forecast is moderate to negative with two out of three indicators providing no clear sign of a strong trend. It is not certain, however, wether the Bitcoin price will rebound or not, as it might as well continue moving down. It should also be noted that no technical analysis indicator is capable of providing 100% accurate signals.
*Information regarding past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Trading cryptocurrencies is not appropriate for all investors and entails the risk of loss of capital. Read our Risk Disclosure.

Сообщение Bitcoin Technical Analysis for July 2019 появились сначала на IQ Option Broker Official Blog.

For a couple of months now Bitcoin has been showing record low volatility and the lack of momentum leaves crypto traders in tension, waiting for signs of a new rapid movement of the first cryptocurrency. The overall hype around Bitcoin has gone down, but what if the current uncertainty results in a strong upward trend? Or will the crypto price fall? Currently Bitcoin is traded at $9 300, but sooner or later a flat dynamic might turn into a trend or the opposite. Read the full article for a technical analysis of Bitcoin and make up your mind about it.

Since its low of $3 800 in the end of March, Bitcoin made it to $10 000 in two months (around the 1st of June) and has been fluctuating between $8 500 and $10 000 ever since. June and July were months of uncertainty and there are multiple forecasts with traders waiting for Bitcoin to break the support or resistance levels. 

The previous trend was positive and Bitcoin doubled in price, could the current consolidation result in the growth of the asset? The overall positive tone of the stock market might create the basis for it, but it is not set in stone. 

The recent growth of Bitcoin created many trading opportunities for crypto traders and the current events may result in even more potential chances. Let’s turn to technical indicators and see what they have to offer. For all indicators, examples of a price chart for 30 days with candles of 12h interval are being used. 

RSI + Bollinger Bands

First on the list: a popular combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands show that the asset has crossed the upper band and currently moves upwards, while RSI gives a signal that the asset is overbought. This could mean that the starting positive trend may reverse and turn into a diminishing one, as asset prices do not normally stay long in the overbought or oversold areas. 

Chande Forecast Oscillator

This momentum indicator may be used on its own to potentially predict the future price direction. As it is obvious from the chart, the indicator was showing price growth for some time, but now it could possibly reverse and drop below the 0 value of the indicator. Only time can tell what will actually happen.

ADX

ADX shows a bullish crossover with the trend strength slowly rising (the ADX line crossed the 20 value and tends up). Does this mean that Bitcoin could potentially gain momentum and break through the resistance level at $10 000 – $10 300? 

Though ADX shows a positive trend, other indicators point out the possible drop in price.  Even with the current drop in volatility, BTC stays one of the most traded assets and there is no doubt that soon the asset will surprise everyone with new records. Of course, it is important to study the market well before entering it and checking the signals with other indicators might be a good practice.

Finally, it is always important to note that past performance is not an indicator of future performance. It is important to remember that no indicator shows 100% accurate signals and that divergences may happen. 

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

About Author

Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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Last updated: 

August 12, 2025

ChatGPT’s ETH analysis shows a powerful vertical breakout to $4,410 with an explosive +4.36% surge, bringing Ethereum within 9% of its all-time high as institutional demand explodes with $1.01 billion single-day ETF inflows.

In comparison, Bitmine targets a massive $20 billion Ethereum acquisition, positioning ETH for a potential ATH breakthrough or overbought correction.

ChatGPT’s ETH analysis synthesizes 19 real-time technical indicators, institutional ETF flows, corporate treasury strategies, and altseason dynamics to assess Ethereum’s 90-day trajectory amid a key inflection between an ATH breakthrough and healthy overbought correction.

Technical Analysis: Explosive Vertical Rally Approaches ATH

Ethereum’s current price of $4,410 reflects an exceptional +4.36% daily surge from the opening price of $4,225, establishing a powerful trading range between $4,433 (high) and $4,221 (low).

This 4.8% intraday range demonstrates explosive momentum typical of major breakout accelerations toward historic levels.

The RSI at 75.03 reaches overbought territory, indicating potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation despite strong momentum.

Moving averages reveal an extraordinary bullish structure with ETH above all major EMAs: 20-day at $3,848 (-12.8%), 50-day at $3,422 (-22.4%), 100-day at $3,043 (-31.0%), and 200-day at $2,820 (-36.1%). This extreme separation indicates parabolic rally characteristics.

MACD also shows an exceptional bullish structure at 42.62, well above zero, with a massive positive histogram at 213.05, confirming powerful acceleration.

Volume analysis shows moderate activity at 42.83K ETH, validating institutional participation during the breakout.

ATR at 2,880 indicates a very high volatility environment with potential for massive moves as Ethereum approaches the all-time high challenge.

Historical Context: Recovery Acceleration Toward New Heights

Ethereum’s 2025 performance demonstrates strong institutional resilience with explosive recovery from April’s $1,385 low to current levels near an all-time high.

The 194% appreciation showcases renewed institutional confidence and adoption acceleration.

The year’s journey from January’s $3,271 through brutal correction to March’s $1,823 and April’s $1,385 bottom established a strong accumulation foundation.

May-August recovery showed consistent institutional buying with dramatic acceleration in recent weeks.

Current pricing sits just 8.44% below the November 2021 all-time high of $4,892, positioning Ethereum for potential new record levels.

Support & Resistance: Strong Foundation Despite Overbought Levels

Immediate support emerges at today’s low around $4,221, representing initial defense during a potential overbought correction. The 20-day EMA at $3,848 provides a substantial support buffer with 12.8% downside protection.

Key support demonstrates exceptional depth with 50-day EMA at $3,422 (-22.4% buffer) and 100-day EMA at $3,043 (-31.0% buffer).

Resistance begins at today’s high around $4,433, followed by a psychological $4,500 and an all-time high challenge at $4,892. Breaking above current resistance could trigger momentum acceleration toward new record levels.

The technical setup suggests potential for 12–22% correction to EMA support levels, while upside breakout toward ATH represents 10.9% appreciation from current levels with unlimited upside in price discovery.

ETF Surge: $1B Daily Inflows Create Institutional FOMO

Ethereum ETFs recorded historic $1.01 billion single-day inflows, representing unprecedented institutional demand and validation of Ethereum’s investment thesis.

Corporate treasuries increasingly view Ethereum as strategic technology infrastructure for programmable money and decentralized applications.

Bitmine Immersion’s announcement targeting $20 billion Ethereum acquisition represents a corporate treasury strategy evolution.

This follows the company becoming the first to hold over 1 million ETH, establishing a precedent for large-scale corporate adoption.

ChatGPT’s ETH Analysis: Altseason Peak Dynamics

ChatGPT’s ETH analysis reveals a key altseason positioning with Ethereum’s dominance surge, validating cycle progression theories.

Speaking with Cryptonews, Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, explained that “alt season is at its peak, signaled clearly by Bitcoin’s dominance slipping to 60%, with more than 30 altcoins having outpaced Bitcoin’s growth over the last 90 days.“

Ray’s analysis positions the current Ethereum rally within the broader altseason context.

“The inflow of institutional capital into Ethereum will extend the summer for altcoins—but the real question is, for how long and which coins will benefit,” he added.

The altseason dynamics suggest Ethereum’s current dominance represents natural cycle progression, with institutional capital rotation from Bitcoin creating momentum for smart contract platforms.

Ray emphasizes timing, saying that “what may feel like the start right now is, at best, the middle of the run.”

Market Fundamentals: Exceptional Metrics Support Rally

Ethereum maintains the second-largest cryptocurrency position with $540.03 billion market cap, demonstrating a 4.03% increase.

The substantial market cap growth accompanies an extraordinary 18.26% volume surge to $49.03 billion.

The 9.18% volume-to-market cap ratio indicates exceptional trading activity, suggesting massive institutional repositioning and retail FOMO.

A circulating supply of 120.7 million ETH with unlimited maximum supply reflects deflationary tokenomics through a burning mechanism. Market dominance of 13.39% positions Ethereum as a major institutional infrastructure with proven utility.

LunarCrush data reveals exceptional social performance with Ethereum’s AltRank surging to 3, indicating top-tier community engagement during the rally.

A Galaxy Score of 56 reflects building euphoric sentiment around the ATH challenge and institutional momentum.

Engagement metrics show massive activity with 62.88 million total engagements and 248.47K mentions (+95.95K). Social dominance of 18.45% demonstrates overwhelming attention during the explosive rally toward historic levels.

Sentiment registers at a robust 81% positive despite overbought conditions, reflecting community confidence in ATH’s breakthrough potential.

Recent themes focus on vertical rally patterns, $6,000–$10,000 targets, and institutional FOMO acceleration.

Three-Month ETH Price Forecast Scenarios

ATH Breakout Acceleration (45% Probability)

A successful break above $4,500 combined with continued institutional inflows could drive explosive appreciation toward $6,000–$8,000, representing 35–80% upside from current levels.

This scenario requires sustained volume above 60K ETH daily and institutional momentum continuation.

Healthy Overbought Correction (35% Probability)

RSI reset could trigger correction to $3,800–$4,200 EMA support, allowing technical indicators to cool while institutional positioning continues.

This scenario provides accumulation opportunities before the next ATH challenge.

Extended Consolidation (20% Probability)

Institutional profit-taking could result in sideways action between $4,000–$4,500, allowing the market to digest gains while corporate treasury adoption continues driving fundamental support.

ChatGPT’s ETH Analysis: Institutional FOMO Meets Technical Perfection

ChatGPT’s ETH analysis reveals unprecedented convergence of institutional ETF adoption, corporate treasury strategies, and technical breakout momentum.

Next Price Target: $6,000-$8,000 Within 90 Days

The immediate trajectory requires a decisive break above $4,500 resistance to validate the ATH challenge from an institutional momentum base.

From there, continued ETF adoption acceleration could propel Ethereum toward $6,000 psychological milestone, with sustained institutional flows driving toward $8,000+ representing new cycle highs.

However, failure to break $4,500 would indicate a healthy overbought correction to $3,800–$4,200 range as the market digests gains, creating an optimal accumulation opportunity before the next institutional wave drives Ethereum toward $10,000+ targets.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

ETH’s daily chart remains structurally bullish despite the recent retracement. After the breakout above the $2,800 resistance level, the price surged past the $3,500 resistance zone, eventually stalling near $4,000. This area aligns with prior swing highs from late 2024 and is acting as strong resistance for now.

The asset has now retraced back toward the broken resistance at $3,500, which is being retested as support. The RSI has also cooled from overbought levels and is currently hovering near 56, allowing room for another move up if buyers step in.

Moreover, the 100-day moving average is accelerating above the 200-day moving average, confirming a bullish golden cross structure. As a result, momentum remains in favor of the bulls as long as ETH stays above the $3,500 range. If this zone breaks, the next support lies at $2,800 and then $2,500.

On the upside, reclaiming $3,700 would open the door for another test of the $4,100 highs. A confirmed breakout above that level could trigger a move toward $4,400–$4,500.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows ETH breaking down from a rising wedge formation, a pattern often associated with exhaustion after a prolonged rally. After multiple failed attempts to break above $4,000, ETH rolled over and fell toward $3,350 before finding short-term support.

The move coincided with a bearish divergence on RSI, signaling weakening momentum before the drop. Since then, the price has formed a local base around $3,350–$3,500, with the buyers attempting to regain control.

For now, ETH is stuck in a short-term range between $3,500 and $3,750. A clean break above this range could trigger another move toward the $4,000 region. However, if the buyers fail to hold the $3,500 area, we might see further downside into the $3,300 or even the $3,100 zone. This is a key area where both the sellers and the buyers are battling for short-term momentum.

Onchain Analysis

Exchange Supply Ratio

The Ethereum Exchange Supply Ratio continues to trend lower, hitting a fresh multi-year low at 0.13. This metric measures the proportion of ETH held on exchanges relative to the total supply.

A falling ratio indicates that less ETH is being held on centralized exchanges, suggesting that holders are moving their coins into cold wallets, staking contracts, or custody solutions. It’s often interpreted as a bullish signal since it reduces the immediate supply available to sell on the open market.

This trend has been in place for the past few years and aligns with Ethereum’s broader shift toward becoming a yield-bearing asset post-Merge. Despite recent price volatility, investors appear to be sticking to a long-term accumulation strategy.

With less ETH available on exchanges, even moderate demand could trigger sharp price movements to the upside. Unless this ratio reverses with a sudden inflow of supply back onto exchanges or a futures liquidation cascade occurs, the overall market structure remains bullish from a supply-side perspective.

The post Ethereum Price Analysis: Is ETH Gearing Up for a $4K Breakout? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The bullish setup for SEI is beginning to take shape and you may be seeing the best entry points in a few weeks, but there is an important catch.

SEI has consolidated the last three weeks to a defined range and have seen everything else in the Altcoin space torn apart. So, is it time for you to become a monkey?

SEI prices form classic bullish patterns, but face important resistance

Over the past 24 hours, SEI has declined by 5.5%, and we retested the lower limit of the three-week range between $0.317 and $0.37. Despite this dip, the wider construction remains constructive.

Textbook cups and handle formations appear to be formed on the 1D chart, with prices trying to get out of the “handle” section, with multiple indicators beginning to see the shift in momentum.

“It’s a golden cross and usually turns the continuation of the trend upside down.” – 99 Bitcoin Analysis

$ Interesting L1 with a lot going on. Charts with higher prices and heights per week as support was found in the $0.14 range. Basically, we performed a full reset from the top in 2024.
The POC should be held at $0.26 for continuous bullish construction.
target:
Conservative $1.44… pic.twitter.com/vaj3ymerq6

-Dorkchicken (@dorkchicken) July 29, 2025

Meanwhile, the acquired signal is blinking and the RSI pushes above 75. This is a classic setup for pause or pullbacks, despite still being structurally bullish.

Why SEI still trades sideways despite bullish indicators

Daily indicators shine bullishly, but catches remain in range, continuing to face rejection of SEI below $0.35.

So far, price action suggests that SEI is still very confined to integration, and the breakout story has not yet been confirmed.

Are you buying SEI now?

The long-term case of SEI is unharmed, but the short-term trade setup is more clear in 4H. If the BTC is stable, this could mark a high-reward entry.

Breakouts over $0.35 unlock the running room. Losing $0.324 will play the bottom of the range.

Exploration: Tether CEO Paolo Aldoino wants net positive from the US election, says Bitcoin’s strategic reserve is a great idea: exclusively for 99Bitcoins

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BTC Price Analysis: Technicals

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the narrow $116K–$120K range, marked by low volatility and subdued price action. This sideways movement suggests an ongoing equilibrium between buying and selling pressure, possibly due to capital rotation into the altcoin markets.

A key concern is the emergence of a bearish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator, indicating a fading of bullish momentum. This divergence increases the likelihood of renewed selling pressure and suggests a possible continuation of the correction phase. If so, a move toward the $111,000 support level becomes probable.

Despite this, the broader market structure remains bullish as long as the $111,000 level holds. If this price point acts as a reliable demand zone, an eventual breakout above $120K could resume the larger uptrend.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, BTC is forming a bullish flag pattern, a classic consolidation formation within an uptrend. The price has consistently printed higher highs and higher lows, supported by an ascending trendline acting as dynamic support,  currently near the $114K level.

As long as this trendline remains intact, the market is likely to continue consolidating inside the flag, which aligns with a healthy correction.

However, a breakdown below this ascending support would likely trigger a sharper pullback toward $111K, forming a key liquidity zone.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

The latest futures order flow shows a noticeable surge in small-sized positions, a strong indication that retail traders are actively participating in the current price range. This spike reveals a high level of retail engagement, especially within the $116K–$120K consolidation zone.

Interestingly, large-scale sell-side activity (represented by green circles), typically associated with institutions or whales, is not present. These major players are not offloading their positions, suggesting that they remain confident in the ongoing bullish trend and do not expect a major reversal just yet.

This setup, with retail activity high and smart money quiet, has historically preceded major bullish moves. While the market may seem stagnant, this phase often serves as a cooling-off period before another leg of the upward trend. The lack of panic from whales adds weight to the theory that this is a healthy consolidation, not a trend reversal.

Once the current range resolves, a fresh wave of demand may enter the market, likely pushing Bitcoin toward new highs.

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is a Crash to $111K Imminent for BTC? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

About Author

Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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Last updated: 

July 18, 2025

ChatGPT’s AI model processed 42 live indicators, revealing consolidation momentum as Bitcoin holds $117,600 following a historic $123,091 all-time high (ATH) achieved on July 14th, with a -1.32% daily decline testing whether the rally marks the beginning of a bull market or peak exhaustion.

Trading above all EMAs while RSI at healthy 64.37 suggests a technical reset amid institutional positioning uncertainty.

A strong structural foundation emerges, with the price 16.9% above the 200-day EMA ($97,723), while the MACD maintains bullish momentum despite a pullback from historic highs.

The market cap stands at $2.34 trillion, with a daily volume of $82.25 billion, as Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin trading and Trump’s “Genius Act” opens a $9 trillion retirement market to crypto investments.

The following analysis synthesizes ChatGPT’s 42 real-time technical indicators, retirement market developments, institutional adoption acceleration, and historic high implications to assess BTC’s 90-day trajectory amid a critical inflection point that determines whether the continuation or correction will occur.

Technical Crossroads: Historic High Pullback Tests Bull Market Validity

Bitcoin’s current price of $117,600 reflects a minor 1.32% daily decline from its historic all-time high of $123,091, achieved on July 14th, marking a critical consolidation phase.

The $3,505 intraday range represents 3.0% of the current price, demonstrating controlled volatility during institutional position adjustment periods.

RSI at 64.37, a healthy level, provides optimal positioning with room for continued appreciation without overbought concerns, suggesting a technical reset rather than a trend reversal.

This positioning suggests a sustainable bull market structure rather than an exhaustion spike, although decisive action above the $121K resistance remains crucial for validation.

MACD indicators display strong bullish momentum, with a positive histogram at 2,836.92, confirming underlying strength despite a short-term pullback.

The combination of healthy RSI positioning and strong MACD signals creates an optimal setup for continuation toward $125K-$127K targets once consolidation completes.

Retirement Market Revolution: Trump’s “Genius Act” Opens $9 Trillion Gateway

President Trump’s planned signing of the “Genius Act” represents a revolutionary catalyst opening the $9 trillion US retirement market to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investments.

This development could trigger unprecedented institutional demand as 401(k) and pension funds gain regulatory approval for digital asset allocation.

The retirement market integration addresses previous regulatory barriers that prevented institutional participation, creating sustainable demand drivers beyond speculative trading.

Professional retirement fund managers, who are subject to fiduciary compliance, now have a regulatory framework for allocating Bitcoin to their treasuries.

Charles Schwab’s launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services validates the mainstream financial services’ embrace of cryptocurrency infrastructure.

The $10 trillion asset manager’s entry provides credibility, attracting conservative institutional capital that was previously excluded from direct cryptocurrency exposure.

Market Dominance Dynamics: Altcoin Season Speculation Builds

Bitcoin’s market dominance, at 60.86%, shows a slight decline as altcoin season speculation intensifies following BTC’s historic high.

This dominance shift creates a binary scenario in which Bitcoin either maintains its leadership or capital shifts toward altcoin alternatives.

BTC dominance dropping “hard” according to analysts suggests a major utility season ahead as institutional capital explores high-performance blockchain alternatives.

This rotation pattern has historically preceded significant altcoin appreciation cycles, while Bitcoin consolidates its gains.

Historical Context: ATH Achievement Creates Psychological Inflection

Bitcoin’s July 14th all-time high of $123,091 represents the culmination of institutional adoption momentum that had been building throughout 2021.

Current 4.36% discount to ATH provides attractive positioning while maintaining the psychological significance of historic breakthrough achievement.

The 15% appreciation from June’s $108,799 close demonstrates sustained institutional demand despite broader market uncertainty.

Historic high achievement creates a psychological inflection point where Bitcoin either validates a new valuation paradigm through continued appreciation or experiences a correction as early adopters secure profits.

The next 30-60 days remain critical for determining the long-term trajectory.

Support & Resistance: EMA Strength Provides Foundation

Immediate support emerges at today’s low around $117,316, reinforced by psychological support at $115,000-$116,000.

The exceptional EMA positioning, with prices 3-17% above all major moving averages, confirms the success of institutional accumulation and validates trend strength.

Major support extends through the 20-day EMA at $113,968 and the 50-day EMA at $109,338, providing multiple safety nets during any correction periods.

This support structure appeals to institutional risk management, as it requires defined downside protection during historically high valuation levels.

Critical resistance begins at today’s high around $120,821, followed by psychological resistance at $121,000-$122,000.

Breaking above this zone would signal continuation toward major resistance at $125,000-$127,000, representing next institutional profit-taking and psychological milestone levels.

Market Metrics: Institutional Validation Sustains Momentum

Bitcoin maintains a historic $2.33 trillion market capitalization, accompanied by a robust 24-hour trading volume of $81.67 billion, which represents institutional validation of its store-of-value status at unprecedented levels.

The 18.9% volume increase demonstrates continued professional participation despite pullback from highs.

The circulating supply of 19.89 million BTC represents 94.7% of the maximum 21 million supply, creating increasing scarcity dynamics that appeal to institutional treasury allocation strategies.

The approaching supply maximum intensifies deflationary arguments in favor of premium valuations.

Current pricing is 4.36% below all-time highs, with extreme gains of 241,999,061% from 2010 lows, providing a compelling institutional narrative for continued appreciation.

This risk-reward profile appeals to professional investors seeking exposure to a proven digital store of value with regulatory clarity.

LunarCrush data reveals mixed community engagement with AltRank declining to 763 while maintaining 81% positive sentiment.

The 130.79 million total engagements with 385.92K mentions demonstrate Bitcoin’s ability to capture attention during historic periods.

A social dominance of 18.85% with declining creator participation suggests community uncertainty about the direction following a historic high achievement.

Recent themes have focused on the potential for an altcoin season and validation of institutional adoption, rather than continued BTC appreciation.

The sentiment division between 81% positive outlook and declining engagement metrics reflects broader market uncertainty about whether historic highs represent the continuation or culmination of current cycle dynamics.

90-Day BTC Price Forecast

Institutional Momentum Continuation (Bull Case – 40% Probability)

Successful retirement market integration and Charles Schwab adoption could drive continued appreciation toward $130,000-$140,000, representing 11-19% upside.

This scenario requires breaking above the $121K resistance and confirmation of sustained institutional positioning.

Technical targets include $125K, $130K, and $140K based on psychological levels and institutional flow projections.

The retirement market catalyst could attract massive conservative capital seeking digital store-of-value exposure with regulatory compliance.

Historic High Consolidation (Base Case – 45% Probability)

Extended consolidation between $115K and $125K could persist through Q3 2025, as institutional positioning develops and regulatory implementations advance.

Support at the EMA cluster, around $109K-$114K, would likely remain stable during consolidation, with volume normalizing to approximately 60-70 billion daily.

This sideways action provides institutional accumulation opportunities while preserving uptrend structure for eventual continuation.

Correction from Historic Levels (Bear Case – 15% Probability)

Breaking below EMA support at $114K could trigger a correction toward $100K-$105K, representing 11-15% downside.

This scenario would require significant institutional demand disappointment or broader market weakness affecting digital asset adoption.

The strong institutional adoption backdrop and regulatory clarity trends limit extreme downside scenarios, with major support at $100K-$105K providing a psychological foundation for future recovery cycles.

BTC Forecast: Digital Gold Meets Institutional Infrastructure

Bitcoin’s current positioning reflects the convergence of historic valuation achievements, institutional adoption acceleration, and regulatory integration advancements.

The 42-signal analysis reveals that the cryptocurrency is positioned at a critical inflection point between the validation of a new paradigm and the consolidation requirements.

Combined with historic high achievement and sustained institutional interest, these developments provide compelling continuation arguments.

The $121K resistance breakthrough represents the definitive test of Bitcoin’s new valuation paradigm following historic ATH achievement.

A successful breakout validates the institutional adoption thesis and triggers continuation toward $130K+ targets, while failure suggests a healthy consolidation phase before the next institutional catalyst wave.

However, as BTC approaches the $120K zone, profit-taking and distribution pressure may rise, increasing the likelihood of a short-term corrective pullback.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

After a prolonged consolidation phase, Bitcoin has decisively broken above its previous all-time high of $111K. This breakout was backed by a notable surge in buying activity, triggering a short-squeeze that accelerated the bullish momentum. As a result, Bitcoin rapidly climbed toward the psychologically significant $120K resistance level.

While this move signals strong market confidence, the $120K region is a probable zone for profit-taking and distribution, which could temporarily slow down the rally. A short-term corrective phase is therefore expected, likely pulling the price back toward the $111K region to retest the breakout level. Based on the Fibonacci retracement tool, key resistance levels ahead are located at $120K and $131K.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin printed a powerful bullish candle, decisively breaking above both the descending wedge pattern and the previous ATH at $111K. Following a minor pullback to retest the breakout zone, the price resumed its upward surge, reaching the $120K mark.

Such impulsive rallies are often followed by short-term corrections, as traders begin to realize profits. A healthy retracement would likely target the 0.5 ($113K) to 0.618 ($111K) Fibonacci levels, a key zone where the market may stabilize and build momentum for the next leg up.

On-chain Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

As Bitcoin trades at all-time highs near $120K, an intriguing insight emerges from the Short-Term Holder SOPR metric. This indicator, which measures realized profits from investors who’ve held BTC for less than 155 days, remains notably muted, especially when compared to November 2024, when Bitcoin first reached $111K.

Despite the recent surge, short-term holders aren’t cashing out aggressively, indicating that profit-taking is still relatively limited. Historically, the end of a bullish cycle is often accompanied by elevated SOPR values due to massive profit realization. But for now, the data suggests the market isn’t overheated, and the current rally could still have room to grow if new demand enters.

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is a Correction Coming or Will BTC Break $120K Next? appeared first on CryptoPotato.