01 September Bitfinex alpha | BTC slip, alt stagnates

Bitcoin has now been below $110,000, below its peak in January 2025 $109,590, extending the cut from its all-time high of $123,640 to over 13%. Although this failure has technical weight, the historic drawdown pattern and seasonality suggest that the market is in fact in the later stages of its correction phase, with $93-95,000 emerging as the most likely zone of cyclical floors. On-chain data confirms this: current short-term holders have a realised price of $108,900 serving as a key pivot, and sustained transactions below this level could further fuel the downside. Exchange order flow metrics such as cumulative volume delta also emphasize spot emotion neutralization, reinforcing the view that buyers are returning until a stronger catalyst emerges.

Altcoins are getting worse, reflecting a wide range of risk-off behaviors. ETH has retreated 14% after temporarily posting a new ATH, while XRP, ADA and Doge have seen double-digit losses. However, institutional demand is resilient under the surface, with ETH’s Treasury and corporate buyers continuing to expand their holdings. Intermediate names like CROs and Pumps outperformed through story-driven gatherings, but this rotation came at the expense of weaker names rather than new influx.

What is emerging is the market capitalization of stagnant Altcoin, and Alts’ movements signal capital turnover rather than expansion. September could mark a cyclical low point before structural drivers reaffirm Q4 recovery as ETF influx was seasonally muted and speculative excesses were flushed.

In the last week of August, US economic data presented complex photos for policymakers ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting in September. Consumer spending in July rose 0.5%, the strongest in four months, but inflationary pressures remained rising, with core PCE moving 2.9% year-on-year. At the same time, job creation slowed to 35,000 a month, but an updated benchmark from the St. Louis Fed suggests that there are fewer new jobs needed to maintain labour market stability. This recalibration lowers the policy easing threshold to tilt expectations for September’s interest rate cuts, despite inflation exceeding targets. GDP data added to complexity: While second quarter growth was revised to 3.3% and driven by strong intellectual property and equipment investments, regional surveys such as Chicago Business Barometer showed weaker business activities under the weight of tariffs and reduced reliability.

In addition to these macroeconomic changes, the development of regulations and crypto markets highlighted broader financial support for asset classes. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reaffirmed the framework of the Foreign Trade Framework and made it clear that offshore exchanges can be re-entered into the US market under established rules. The adoption of digital assets has also accelerated, with BitMine Immersion Technology holding $88.2 billion in crypto and cash, pursuing its ambition to strengthen its position as the world’s largest Ethereum financing company and earning 5% of Ethereum’s total supply.

Meanwhile, El Salvador has advanced its sovereign Bitcoin strategy by spreading a $682 million reserve across multiple wallets to mitigate security risks, combining it with a public dashboard aimed at increasing transparency and positioning the country as a benchmark for national crypto governance.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-slip-alt-stagnates/feed/ 0 57938 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/google-altcoin-searches-hit-5-year-high-as-alt-szn-fever-returns-to-retail-traders/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/google-altcoin-searches-hit-5-year-high-as-alt-szn-fever-returns-to-retail-traders/#respond Wed, 13 Aug 2025 09:07:12 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/google-altcoin-searches-hit-5-year-high-as-alt-szn-fever-returns-to-retail-traders/

Google search activity for “altcoin” has reached its highest level in five years, matching interest levels last seen during Ethereum’s foundation.

The surge coincides with a shift in market structure as Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market has slipped toward 60% after peaking mid-summer, a pattern that has often preceded periods of stronger performance in alternative cryptocurrencies. Ethereum has subsequently reached multi-year highs, breaking $4,500.

Bitcoin dominance recently eased to the 59–61% range, a threshold where capital historically begins to rotate into large-cap altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. That rotation appears to be underway in institutional markets as well. CoinShares reported record weekly inflows into digital asset investment products in late July, totaling $4.39 billion, with Ethereum accounting for $2.12 billion, nearly double any previous weekly inflow for the asset.

On-chain and derivatives data also reflect the change in positioning. CoinGecko’s Q2 report showed perpetual DEX trading volumes hitting a quarterly record of $898 billion even as centralized spot volumes softened. Market-wide capitalization excluding

Bitcoin and Ethereum broke out of a seven-month downtrend in June, reclaiming roughly $900 billion. Kaiko data from Q1 also identified a widening volatility gap between altcoins and Bitcoin, a structural feature common in the early stages of previous alt seasons.

Search data is not a direct measure of trading activity, but past cycles have shown that spikes in retail attention tend to align with the initial phases of altcoin rallies.

The current alignment of high search interest, a decline in Bitcoin dominance, elevated inflows to non-Bitcoin products, and increased leverage usage on alt-heavy trading venues mirrors conditions seen ahead of major altcoin cycles in both 2017 and 2021.

The sustainability of the trend will depend on whether Bitcoin consolidates near its highs or reasserts dominance.

A decisive move above the mid-60 percent dominance range would historically blunt altcoin outperformance, while a continued range-bound Bitcoin price could maintain conditions favorable for further rotation into the broader altcoin market.

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Altcoin traders can hardly contain themselves as the long-awaited breakout appears to have begun. ETH posted gains of over 20% the last seven days and smaller cap coins like SOL, DOGE, and BNB are close behind, with Chainlink’s LINK token up 30% in the same timeframe. Does this mean alt season finally here?

A painful bull market for altcoin traders

2025 has been a stellar year for Bitcoin, seeing the number-one crypto climb steadily higher, marking a fresh all-time high of ~$122,838 on July 14, fueled by rising institutional demand and a favorable regulatory climate stateside.

The same cannot be said of altcoins, which have languished far from their peak levels. Ethereum’s lackluster performance, in particular, caused divisions within its community, leading many to question whether the divergence between technology and price was an existential issue.

Just as ETH price was beginning to break out and see sustained momentum, renowned trader and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes rattled ETH holders, selling 2,373 coins from his stash and forecasting near-term headwinds for the number-one alt, which, he believed, would test the $3,000 mark based on a weaker-than-expected jobs report and a short-term slowdown in global liquidity.

Those who continued to HODL their ETH are feeling euphoric today as ETH price has surged more than 50% in a month, with some prediction platforms forecasting price targets over $60,000. Even Hayes has taken to crypto Twitter this morning to admit the folly of his decision, tagging Tommy Lee’s Fundstrat, now the largest holder of ETH, with the words:

“Had to buy it all back, do you forgive me? I pinky swear, I’ll never take profit again.”

Is alt season finally here?

With Hayes back on board, BTC and crypto allowed in 401ks, and Ethereum bulls from Buterin to Bankless, finally believing in the strength of this latest rally, does this mean that the long-awaited alt season is finally here?

It certainly looks that way as smaller-cap coins begin to pump across the board. Before you get over your skis, however, take note: this year’s alt season may differ from previous cycles. As prominent day trader and LINK ambassador Ito Shimotsuma, points out:

“Each #Altseason is smaller than the previous ones. And this is why I tell you to focus more on DYOR. In 2017, any random ICO pumped 100x. In 2021, any VC backed alt pumped 50x-100x. This time, very selective alts will outperform. Look for those alts with strong narrative and revenue sharing.”

Another well-known altcoin trader, Miles Deutscher, similarly exercises more caution, confirming that, in his opinion, a mini alt season is finally happening, but watch out for the rotation back into BTC between the $120-140K mark.

Into the Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen is notably less bullish on alts, warning:

“This is not alt season.

This is ETH season

Let’s not confuse the two”

Is Bitcoin’s rally finally over?

With Ethereum and alts pumping, Bitcoin is currently being outperformed, and Bitcoin dominance has dropped to 59.2% at the time of writing after months of holding steady over 60%.

According to Bitcoin macro strategy analyst ecoinometrics, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq is behind this recent stall.

“Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq helps explain recent price action.

When stocks dropped sharply late last week, Bitcoin followed. That’s what you expect when correlations are elevated.

Now that the Nasdaq is resuming its uptrend, Bitcoin is moving with it again.”

All eyes will be on the broader macro picture moving into next week to see what Bitcoin’s next move will be, and how long this alt season may last.

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Bitcoin is trading for over $94,000 at the time of writing. It continued to grow to over $92,000, bringing a huge relief to ALT, earning over 20%.

$ bonk

Classical gap fills from daily trends to daily EMA100 – I was talking about this pattern in a group a few days ago.

It happens all time frames and is pretty acute in most cases both ways.

This is also the next transaction I’m looking for $ bonk. pic.twitter.com/an9ldrk9y8

-Gonzo (@gonzoxbt) April 23, 2025

Many traders in CT are looking forward to Bonk Price to eventually print a new ATH. Some have posted PNL photos to millions. And it’s not just bystanders of such behavior. When is the best time to board a train?

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Bonk Crypto is pushed up with strength: the next target

(Bonkusdt)

The Bonk 1D chart shows clear price action and allows you to draw a horizontal line at the key level. Since $0.09 from the bottom, Bonk has scored +70%. In my opinion, it’s too late to open up positions now. Wait for the market to settle a little.

The cup and handle pattern is one of the possibilities for price action. However, it is clear that first, zones between 0.0155 and 0.017 need to be retrieved. It is expected that 50% will then move to 0.025.

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Lower time frame analysis – 4H breakout

(Bonkusdt)

4H charts also give us good insights. The price broke and closed one candle above the red line below – the height of the previous two. It’s the first sign of resistance as we’ve returned to the first key level. We are MAS more than anything and I really love that the MA100 is over the MA200 right away. Sometimes called Golden Cross.

Prices are expected to consolidate within this range for a while until RSI cools back to 50-60 points. I’ll pay attention to that, and the last high is $0.014. This is a potential point of support and entry.

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Exploding Post-Bonk Crypto: ALT Season Will Arrive? It first appeared in 99 Bitcoin.