01 September Bitfinex alpha | BTC slip, alt stagnates

Bitcoin has now been below $110,000, below its peak in January 2025 $109,590, extending the cut from its all-time high of $123,640 to over 13%. Although this failure has technical weight, the historic drawdown pattern and seasonality suggest that the market is in fact in the later stages of its correction phase, with $93-95,000 emerging as the most likely zone of cyclical floors. On-chain data confirms this: current short-term holders have a realised price of $108,900 serving as a key pivot, and sustained transactions below this level could further fuel the downside. Exchange order flow metrics such as cumulative volume delta also emphasize spot emotion neutralization, reinforcing the view that buyers are returning until a stronger catalyst emerges.

Altcoins are getting worse, reflecting a wide range of risk-off behaviors. ETH has retreated 14% after temporarily posting a new ATH, while XRP, ADA and Doge have seen double-digit losses. However, institutional demand is resilient under the surface, with ETH’s Treasury and corporate buyers continuing to expand their holdings. Intermediate names like CROs and Pumps outperformed through story-driven gatherings, but this rotation came at the expense of weaker names rather than new influx.

What is emerging is the market capitalization of stagnant Altcoin, and Alts’ movements signal capital turnover rather than expansion. September could mark a cyclical low point before structural drivers reaffirm Q4 recovery as ETF influx was seasonally muted and speculative excesses were flushed.

In the last week of August, US economic data presented complex photos for policymakers ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting in September. Consumer spending in July rose 0.5%, the strongest in four months, but inflationary pressures remained rising, with core PCE moving 2.9% year-on-year. At the same time, job creation slowed to 35,000 a month, but an updated benchmark from the St. Louis Fed suggests that there are fewer new jobs needed to maintain labour market stability. This recalibration lowers the policy easing threshold to tilt expectations for September’s interest rate cuts, despite inflation exceeding targets. GDP data added to complexity: While second quarter growth was revised to 3.3% and driven by strong intellectual property and equipment investments, regional surveys such as Chicago Business Barometer showed weaker business activities under the weight of tariffs and reduced reliability.

In addition to these macroeconomic changes, the development of regulations and crypto markets highlighted broader financial support for asset classes. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reaffirmed the framework of the Foreign Trade Framework and made it clear that offshore exchanges can be re-entered into the US market under established rules. The adoption of digital assets has also accelerated, with BitMine Immersion Technology holding $88.2 billion in crypto and cash, pursuing its ambition to strengthen its position as the world’s largest Ethereum financing company and earning 5% of Ethereum’s total supply.

Meanwhile, El Salvador has advanced its sovereign Bitcoin strategy by spreading a $682 million reserve across multiple wallets to mitigate security risks, combining it with a public dashboard aimed at increasing transparency and positioning the country as a benchmark for national crypto governance.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-slip-alt-stagnates/feed/ 0 57938 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-will-integrate-ahead-of-potential-q4-strength-as-bond-markets-are-distorted/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-will-integrate-ahead-of-potential-q4-strength-as-bond-markets-are-distorted/#respond Wed, 10 Sep 2025 09:58:31 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-will-integrate-ahead-of-potential-q4-strength-as-bond-markets-are-distorted/

08 September Bitfinex alpha | BTC will integrate ahead of potential Q4 strength as bond markets are distorted

Bitcoin is stable between $108,000 and $112,000, with buyers defending key support zones and filling the air gap left up until July’s Rapid Rally. Deeper corrections are still possible, but the result is time-based integration, especially when it serves as a cyclical lower point than the historically strong Q4. The profitability of short-term holders has been normalized, leaving profits from 42% to 58% of this cohort, but ETF inflows have been slowed sharply in both BTC and ETH. The demand for this cooling facility sees convictions of stronger spots in BTC compared to the combination of directional flow and arbitrage activity that characterizes ETH, but highlights the market’s dependence on fresh catalysts.

Seasonality adds weight to the current integrated narrative. August fell 6.5% and closed in line with a historically weak profile, but September was traditionally the softest month with an average return of 3.3%. That said, the “September Red” effect has recently faded, with the fourth quarter seasonality historically strong, with October and November earning a large average profit.

If the Fed sees interest rate cuts in September, actual yields and low dollars can amplify the seasonal benefits of BTC and set up a phase of updated momentum. Until then, integration remains a basic case due to ETF flows, macro policy shifts, and placement of derivatives that act as key signals to monitor.

The US economy is putting pressure on weaker labor data, bond market tensions, and political conspiracies around the Fed converge. The August Employment Report on Friday, September 5th revealed a payroll growth of just 22,000, bringing the unemployment rate to 4.3% in nearly four years. Softness will strengthen expectations for Fed rate reductions at its September 16th-17th meeting, but sticky inflation complicates the decision. The bond market reflects tension. Short-term yields have fallen to expectations of interest rate cuts, but remained close to 5% in 30 years, indicating investors’ concerns and financial reliability over the deficit. This cut has skyrocketed the curve, increasing long-term borrowing costs and burning flights to gold. President Trump rejects federal government governor Lisa Cook, exacerbating the challenge by threatening new EU tariffs, encouraging investors to weigh not only economic fundamentals but also increasing uncertainty about the Fed’s independence and the direction of US policy.

In the meantime, the global crypto landscape is changing as regulators and markets move towards a more clear framework. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trade Commission issued a rare joint pledge to more closely coordinate the monitoring of digital assets on Friday, September 5th, covering spot crypto products, permanent contracts, portfolio margins, and clearer rules of definitions.

The September 29th joint roundtable has moved this agenda forward, further strengthening it by the 2025 Responsible Financial Innovation Act. The bill also introduces measures to protect and clarify Defi developer status, decentralized physical infrastructure networks, airdrops, and staking rewards. He also directs research into tokenized real-world assets. Together, these moves show Congresses and regulators working together to strengthen the US competitiveness in the digital market. Institutional trust in Solana is also increasing. Last weekend, Sol Strategies announced it had secured approval for its uplist to Nasdaq under ticker Stke, a company milestone focused on Solana, which surpasses its CAD $1 billion mandated assets and owns a treasury of nearly 400,000 Sols. Meanwhile, the South Korean Financial Services Commission issued swept lending rules on September 5, 2025, emphasizing aggressive push to curb interest rates, ban radical loans, limit eligible tokens to maximum assets, protect investors and stabilize the domestic market.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-will-integrate-ahead-of-potential-q4-strength-as-bond-markets-are-distorted/feed/ 0 57702 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/eth-continues-to-outpace-btc-amid-biggest-bitcoin-etf-outflows-in-months-bitfinex-alpha/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/eth-continues-to-outpace-btc-amid-biggest-bitcoin-etf-outflows-in-months-bitfinex-alpha/#respond Wed, 27 Aug 2025 01:22:45 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/eth-continues-to-outpace-btc-amid-biggest-bitcoin-etf-outflows-in-months-bitfinex-alpha/

August 25th Bitfinex alpha | ETH climbs as BTC integrates

With the launch of the central bank’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium last week, Bitcoin was defensive, slipping almost 10% from its high as investors lost risk to weaker ETF flows and hotter inflation data. However, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell set a tremendous balance, the tone reversed sharply after the symposium, causing a short aperture across digital assets, lifting the majors and regaining market confidence. Ethereum outperformed, surged to a fresh, high, reaching $4,958.70 on Sunday, bolstering its new role as a key liquidity driver for facility demand, but the continued integration of BTC shows a pause rather than a structural weakness.

Flow remains the central driver of price. The US spot ETF saw its heaviest weekly spill since April.

However, the Ministry of Finance accumulation intervened to absorb supply and remained resilient to net structural demand. Global liquidity remains high and the long-term background remains constructive as ETH corporate financial financial balances grow above $100 billion. While BTC appears to be set to trade ranges in the short term, ETH leads the spin and Altcoins wait for a wider vehicle to unlock sustained influx later in the cycle.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech boosted the market in hopes of interest rate cuts in September. Still, he halted his firm commitment to do so, highlighting the Fed’s act of balancing inflation and employment. Treasury yields have declined and stocks have recovered, but Powell has been more cautious than in the past cycle, suggesting that cuts may be limited. Meanwhile, the U.S. housing market showed resilience in July’s rebound of multi-family construction, but permits fell to their five-year lows, reflecting builders’ attention.

Mortgage fees have been eased slightly, but they continue to maintain affordable tensions. Beyond housing, stronger business activities in both manufacturing and services suggest economic momentum, while higher input costs and higher consumer prices indicate sustained inflationary pressures.

At the same time, there was a big movement in the crypto industry. Thailand has launched a pilot’s inter-crypto program to enhance tourism, Sharplink Gaming has expanded its Ethereum holdings beyond 740,000 ETH, and CFTC has expanded its “Crypto Sprint” to promote US digital asset regulations in coordination with the SEC.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-eth-climbs-as-btc-integrates/feed/ 0 55086 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-bitcoin-as-leads-to-integration/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-bitcoin-as-leads-to-integration/#respond Mon, 18 Aug 2025 19:46:44 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-bitcoin-as-leads-to-integration/

August 18th Bitfinex alpha | Bitcoin AS leads to integration

Bitcoin retracted 5.4% last week after a brief push to a new history-high $123,640, as US inflation data, which is hotter than expected, curtailed risk appetite. The move highlights the market’s sensitivity to macro headwinds, with BTC currently combining the low ATH and local range. Until more powerful catalysts emerge, such as Dovish Fed signals and updated ETF influx, price actions may remain bound to range, reflecting digestion rather than complete weakness.

Ethereum is outstanding, rising from $1,386 in April to $4,783 last week, within the 2021 peak of $4,864. Its strength is to promote a risk spin-off to higher beta assets, reflected in Bitcoin’s control, which has slipped from 65% to 59% over the past two months.

This shift underscores the growing speculative appetite, but it also increases vulnerability across altcoins where rallies remain short-lived without structural influx. Major continues to lock the flow of facilities, leaving a wider market at a key inflection point.

The latest US inflation report highlights the persistence of price pressures as both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) highlight the way tariffs and services costs continue to strain households and businesses. The July CPI showed headline moderation, primarily due to a decline in gasoline prices, but core inflation rose at its fastest pace in six months driven by an increase in the service sector and tariff-related products.

Meanwhile, the July PPI revealed even sharper pressure on producers, with input costs rising more than expected, outweighing consumer prices. This growing gap between producer and consumer prices indicates that profit margins are tightening as businesses struggle to ease demand while absorbing tariff-related costs. Together, the report illustrates the cycle of building inflationary pressures from both supply and demand aspects, complicating the Federal Reserve path ahead of the September policy meeting. Although the market initially focused on softer headline CPIs, deeper details in the report suggest that inflation is far from being curbed, and expectations for rapid rate cuts suggest that tax-driven costs and the stickiness of the services sector are optimistic as it places emphasis on growth and corporate revenue outlook.

Meanwhile, last week, it highlighted that digital assets are becoming more ingrained in global finance. In the US, Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent has reviewed a strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan built on confiscated assets and explored a “budget-neutral” way to expand its holdings while halting government BTC sales.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s SFC has rolled out some of Asia’s strictest management rules for licensed exchanges, cold wallet protection, whitelist withdrawals and real-time surveillance. Overhaul aims to strengthen investors’ trust and position Hong Kong as a major regulatory gateway for the adoption of institutional crypto.

On the corporate side, Gemini, a central exchange, has revealed a restructuring that despite rapid losses, has filed for the NASDAQ IPO, shifting users to Florida and shifting their $75 million stubcoin credit line from Ripple. This list will mark the third publicly published US exchange, increasing transparency and competitive benchmarks across the sector. Finally, the Federal Reserve has ended special surveillance programs for banks engaged in crypto and fintech and have returned them to regular supervision. In addition to similar moves by the FDIC, SEC and OCC, this illustrates a shift towards mainstream digital asset activity within traditional banking frameworks, clearing the path to deeper institutional integration.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-bitcoin-as-leads-to-integration/feed/ 0 53869 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/gas-giant-may-orbit-alpha-centauri/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/gas-giant-may-orbit-alpha-centauri/#respond Tue, 12 Aug 2025 14:53:26 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/gas-giant-may-orbit-alpha-centauri/

Alpha Centauri, part of the three-star system closet to our own, is often posed in science fiction as humanity’s first hop into the beyond—or perhaps its first meeting of the minds with alien intelligences. For the first time, scientists have strong evidence that Alpha Centauri A has a planet in orbit, a gas giant about twice as far from its star as Earth is from the sun. The observations are from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope.

If confirmed, the planet would be the closest to Earth that orbits in the habitable zone of a Sun-like star. However, because the planet candidate is a gas giant, scientists say it would not support life as we know it.

“With this system being so close to us, any exoplanets found would offer our best opportunity to collect data on planetary systems other than our own. Yet, these are incredibly challenging observations to make, even with the world’s most powerful space telescope, because these stars are so bright, close, and move across the sky quickly,” said Charles Beichman, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the NASA Exoplanet Science Institute at Caltech’s IPAC astronomy center, co-first author on the new papers. “Webb was designed and optimized to find the most distant galaxies in the universe. The operations team at the Space Telescope Science Institute had to come up with a custom observing sequence just for this target, and their extra effort paid off spectacularly.”

Here’s a quote from Aniket Sanghi of Caltech, co-first author of the papers covering the research:

“If confirmed, the potential planet seen in the Webb image of Alpha Centauri A would mark a new milestone for exoplanet imaging efforts. Of all the directly imaged planets, this would be the closest to its star seen so far. It’s also the most similar in temperature and age to the giant planets in our solar system, and nearest to our home, Earth,” he says. “Its very existence in a system of two closely separated stars would challenge our understanding of how planets form, survive, and evolve in chaotic environments.”

NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, scheduled to launch next year or 2027, has dedicated hardware for observing exoplanets in visible spectra, hopefully “yielding unique insights on the size and reflectivity of the planet.”

Context from Phil Plait:

The star has been a target for planet hunters for a long time (in fact with another astronomer I proposed using STIS, a camera on Hubble, to look for one back in the 90s, but it got turned down as being too speculative, which, fair). In 2021 astronomers announced they found a candidate planet orbiting Alpha Cen A using the Very Large Telescope (or VLT), but the detection wasn’t strong enough to make a confident claim.

The closest known exoplanets are those orbiting Proxima Centauri, a red dwarf in the same system. Don’t get your hopes up: “Proxima Centauri is a flare star with intense emission of electromagnetic radiation that could strip an atmosphere off the planet.”

Previously:
• ‘Young’ exoplanet may end up a super-Earth
• Watch: history of exoplanet observations as generative music
• Potentially habitable exoplanet: The fine print
• Which is the most boring exoplanet?

August 11th Bitfinex alpha | Macro to determine BTC price

Bitcoin rebounded from its $112,000 low and regained a range floor of $115,800. This recovery has restored short-term confidence along with a steady accumulation of Crypto Treasury Firms currently holding nearly $90 billion in digital assets, breaking past highs in the range of nearly $119,500, but is still unclear if this breakout via resistance is maintained. The price is waving around a short-term holder cost-based standard of $106,709, with conditions still in place to maintain “warm but not overheated” conditions, consistent with the bull phase during the cycle.

The market is balanced, but highly sensitive to macrocatalysts, as 70% of the short-term holder supply still cools down profit and profitable activity to 45%. So, this week’s key US inflation data can determine whether BTC will push a new all-time high or return it to $110,000.

After months of mildness in the financial markets, the confluence of changes in trade policy, evolving bond market dynamics and soft economic data sets the stage on a more unstable setting near the year. Pending US tariffs threaten to raise costs, disrupt supply chains and threaten pressure jobs, but the rising premium in the bond market (now 0.65%) has increased uncertainty about future Fed policies, especially if inflation accelerates after dependency. Manufacturing orders fell 4.8% in June, highlighting uneven demand and the challenges companies face when securing goods ahead of the holiday season turmoil.

The labour market is also cooling, slowing employment growth, significant downward revisions to previous employment data, and service sector activity stagnates just above the contraction level. While rising input costs in the services sector increase inflationary pressures, it increases workers’ productivity – a 2.4% increase in the second quarter – provides a critical buffer, suggesting that technology-driven efficiency improvements may help sustain growth in soft employment environments.

In the crypto space, Bitmine Immersion Technologies has rapidly built the world’s largest Ethereum Treasury Department, accumulating over 833,000 ETH, worth $29 billion in just five weeks, and has established itself as a leading institutional player as a backer for ARK, Pantera, Galaxy Digital and more. Changes in policy under President Trump are also reshaping the industry’s landscape. Recent executive orders could open the doors of 401(k) and other retirement plans and drive mainstream adoption, including alternative assets, including digital assets. Another order will prohibit politicized decubiting, explicitly protecting crypto companies’ access to banking services and dismantling barriers set up under previous regulatory regimes.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-macro-to-determine-btc-price/feed/ 0 52708 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-integrates-and-leverages-drops-as-the-market-is-waiting-for-a-catalyst/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-integrates-and-leverages-drops-as-the-market-is-waiting-for-a-catalyst/#respond Mon, 04 Aug 2025 22:15:38 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-integrates-and-leverages-drops-as-the-market-is-waiting-for-a-catalyst/

04 August Bitfinex alpha | BTC integrates and leverages drops as the market is waiting for a catalyst

Bitcoin has crucially destroyed local range support at $115,800, reaching its $112,210 low after multiple retests over the past three weeks. This failure coincides with the wider risk across the entire crypto complex, especially in altcoins where leverage was actively constructed. The other indexes represent the broader Altcoin market, but they excluded the top 10 coins by market capitalization, resulting in a drawdown of 18.7% over the last 10 days, eliminating nearly $59 billion in market capitalization before rebounding on Sunday.

This surrender phase peaked on August 2nd, with daily liquidation exceeding $1 billion. BTC and ETH were leading the liquidation volume, but Altcoins experienced a deeper drawdown in 2025 with a total crypto liquidation marking one of the most offensive rewinds. Despite the high betty nature of Altcoins, even key assets like ETH reduced the week by 9.7%, while the Broader Others Index fell 11.4%. Just a few names like ENA and Pengu highlight how limited capital turnover has turned amid increased macro pressure and reduced risk.

Structurally, BTC still holds a relative strength position with a market capitalization of over $2.2 trillion. This postpones the 2021 cycle peak, but ETH and Altcoins are below previous highs. This difference highlights the role of BTC as an institutionally driven asset for macroresidents, in contrast to the speculative vulnerability of the broader market. As ETF flows cool, Fed policies turn into more takis and risk appetite declines, consolidation or further downsides are expected, unless aggressive spot buying is re-emerged. The technical bounce from the $112,000 area is plausible, but the broader recovery could be dependent on facility flows or updated demand via clear macrocatalysts.

Latest economic data from the US highlights the growing vulnerability under seemingly resilient headline figures. The June inflation report revealed enduring price pressures driven primarily by new tariffs that reduced the costs of goods, such as furniture, clothing and recreational items.

Personal Consumption Expenses (PCE) rose modestly, but actual consumer spending was hardly moving. This indicates that inflation is undermining purchasing power. Wage growth has softened, with GDP rising by 3% in the second quarter, much of which is due to a sharp decline in imports, increasing weak domestic demand.

Excluding trade and inventory, actual GDP rose by just 1.2%, referring to a stagnant business investment and slowing consumer activity. Meanwhile, the July employment report has been added to the darkness. Employment slowed to just 73,000 new jobs, unemployment rates tickled at up to 4.2%, and workforce participation continued to decline. Despite the seasonal tailwinds, sectors such as construction and hospitality had declined in performance, but the decline in foreign-born workers reflected resistance to tightening immigration policies. These trends collectively complicate the Federal Reserve policy outlook. With the stickiness of inflation and declining labor force, the Fed is likely to slow down speed cuts, waiting for a more clear signal before adjusting its stance. In parallel, the crypto industry has experienced a strong revival of institutional engagement, characterized by bold Treasury allocations and reorganisation of regulatory authorities. Sharplink Gaming has created headlines with ETH’s $295 million purchase, increasing its total holdings by over 438,000, establishing it as the world’s second largest corporate holder. The company’s aggressive capital deployment and staking strategy, supported by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin and former BlackRock executives, reflects the growing institutional convictions as a financial asset for ETH. Meanwhile, regulatory momentum has also been built. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has launched Project Crypto, a drastic initiative to modernize the US digital asset framework. The initiative, which moves away from the highly-enforced agency past, promises clarity in token classification, enables authorized cryptography to “super apps,” encourages traditional tokenized finance, and recovers the potential of US leadership in digital innovation. Finally, DeVVStream, a NASDAQ-registered carbon credit company, has announced a $10 million allocation to Bitcoin and Solana as part of its Sustainable Cryptocurrency Program. Funded by the $300 million Convertible Notrease, the move combines financial strategy with environmental impact, highlighting Crypto’s integration into an increasingly diversified corporate finance model. Together, these developments demonstrate mature digital asset spaces that are increasingly aligned with both facility capital and forward-looking regulatory frameworks.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-integrates-and-leverages-drops-as-the-market-is-waiting-for-a-catalyst/feed/ 0 51487 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-is-low-locally-but-discovers-increased-leverage/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-is-low-locally-but-discovers-increased-leverage/#respond Tue, 29 Jul 2025 03:46:23 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-is-low-locally-but-discovers-increased-leverage/

July 28th Bitfinex alpha | BTC is low locally but discovers increased leverage

Bitcoin successfully defended its short-term range low of nearly $114,800 last week, recovering sharply to close the week of nearly $119,580. This resilience fell nearly 5% within a rapid week, causing a massive liquidation. On July 23 and 24, long positions of over $1.1 billion were wiped out over major exchanges across various assets, revealing that speculative positioning overheated during BTC’s most recent all-time driving. The corrections were shallow in price, but the leverage impact was deep, and too fast bubbles enhanced the reflective nature of the crypto market.

Beneath the surface, the risk appetite continues to spin actively into the altcoin. Ethereum’s open profit advantage rose to 17-26%, but Bitcoin’s fell to just 41% to 41%, a sharp drop from 51% in April. The overall interest advantage of Altcoin remains stable at low 30s, but its composition is fluidity driven by fast changing narratives and listing activities. Open interest across major altcoins such as ETH, SOL, XRP and Doge have skyrocketed from $26 billion to $44 billion in just four weeks, reflecting the clear benefits of speculative capital.

The market is currently at a critical time. Bitcoin’s structural strength remains intact, it retains its support level and ETFs are in stable demand, but as the altcoin leverage concentration increases, the broader crypto complex becomes vulnerable to sharp derevalization events. When speculative positioning is built, the risk of cascade liquidation increases, especially when macro headings become negative or price momentum stalls.

Recent data shows that rebounds in the US economy hide deeper weaknesses. Corporate investment is slowing, falling 9.3% in June, with capital goods cores down 0.7% as tariff uncertainty destroys the plan. The frontline surge in equipment spent earlier this year has faded, with second quarter GDP growth (2.4%) being driven primarily by temporary inventory and trade adjustments rather than actual demand.

Meanwhile, unemployment claims fell to a minimum of 217,000 in three months, while continuing claims rose to 19.55 million, indicating difficulties in reemployment. Companies have suspended employment amid uncertainty and uneven demand for tariffs. Housing activities remain weak, with new home sales being only 0.6% in June and the highest stocks since 2007. The labor market has not collapsed, but it has not cooled quietly. Bitmine Immersion and the upcoming Ether Machine IPO are gathering Ether Reim as a promotional class for the Ministry of Finance, and Bitmine currently has over 566,000 ETHs and Ether Machines ready to be published with over 400,000 ETHs on its yield generation infrastructure. Meanwhile, Trump Media’s $20 billion Bitcoin bet adds to this trend, but concerns rely on shortages in revenue and reliance on encryption to justify the valuation.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-is-low-locally-but-discovers-increased-leverage/feed/ 0 50243 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-alts-rally-continues-on-to-btc-ath/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-alts-rally-continues-on-to-btc-ath/#respond Mon, 21 Jul 2025 19:59:15 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-alts-rally-continues-on-to-btc-ath/

July 21st Bitfinex alpha | Alts Rally continues on to BTC ATH

Bitcoin hit a fresh high of $123,120 last week, then cooled to sideways integration, recording a rally of 65.3% from its April low. Once Bitcoin suspends, altcoins have surged aggressively, with many big caps like Ethereum and XRP surpassing the top for the first time in months. This change in momentum has led to a 6.9% decline in Bitcoin dominance, the largest since December 2023, suggesting that the market is spinning into higher beta assets, a feature of the medium-cycle expansion stage.

Despite Bitcoin integration, it far surpasses the 95% realized cost base of holders, highlighting that most of the supply is profitable. This historically illustrates a later stage bullish phase in which profits from short-term holders are intensified. Long-term holders first began distributing coins in early 2024, while ETFs, retail and new market participants are absorbing their supply. This natural rotation between holder classes reflects the maturation cycle, but also increases short-term vulnerability, especially when buyer momentum fades.

Bitcoin has returned for a short time to $115,820 after testing the +1 standard deviation band (σ) above the short-term holder cost base above $120,000. For the rally to continue, the next resistance will be in the +2σ band, close to $136,000. This is a level related to terms of acquisition and the vibrancy of the peak market. To maintain momentum to reach that level, it could require an updated institutional influx or a strong macro tailwind to absorb profit-raising pressure. For now, the baton has gone to Altcoins, but the structural strength of Bitcoins remains intact.

The macroeconomics has revealed tariff-driven inflation is emerging, with CPI rising by 0.3% in June and higher import costs from China and other major US trading partners, pushing up the prices of consumer goods such as appliances and apparel. Shelter and service inflation shows mild easing, but producer price data refers to rising upstream costs and potential “stagflation light” risks, urging the Fed to curb interest rate cuts for now. Despite these inflationary pressures, US retail sales rebounded 0.6% in June. This precedes car sales and pre-emptive consumer purchases, while actual consumption continues to rise slightly. Labor market data adds to complex situations. Although early unemployment claims have declined, this suggests continued claims and slow wage growth.

In Crypto, institutional adoptions have skyrocketed as Strategies (previously MicroStrategy) became the first public company to own more than 600,000 BTC, and now exceeding $73 billion. Meanwhile, Hungary has imposed strict penalties on unauthorized crypto transactions, forcing major platforms to halt services, and Kazakhstan is weighing the crypto allocation of sovereign reserves.

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