Welcome to Slate Sundays, CryptoSlate’s new weekly feature showcasing in-depth interviews, expert analysis, and thought-provoking op-eds that go beyond the headlines to explore the ideas and voices shaping the future of crypto.

Lyn Alden is an exceptional human.

Broadly recognized as one of the top minds in macroeconomics, during a conversation with Lyn, you can feel some of her vast intellect rubbing off on you; I swear my IQ increased several points by the time our chat was over.

Even navigating heavy topics like the fiscal deficit and the onset of AI, she does so with a smile on her face and more eloquence and poise than an Olympic gymnast executing a triple backflip.

Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and general partner at venture firm Ego Death Capital, alongside other industry heavyweights like Jeff Booth and Preston Pysh, Lyn has earned her stripes over the years as one of the most respected macro analysts in the space.

She’s also one of the most solicited for interviews, thanks to her razor-sharp insights and depth of market knowledge.

As a prolific content creator, Lyn offers a free investing newsletter and frequents the virtual corridors of Crypto Twitter daily, amassing three-quarters of a million followers who rely on her timely commentary and finely-edged wit: beyond the undeniable words of wisdom and investment advice, Lyn’s something of a master when it comes to memes.

Nothing stops this train

Lyn is perhaps best known for her book Broken Money, which provides a comprehensive view of the history of money and a well-illustrated critique of the global monetary system. She’s also highly vocal about her thesis on the U.S. fiscal deficit, AKA, ‘Nothing stops this train’.

Sky-high levels of U.S. spending are rising at a pace that far outstrips the government’s ability to pay for it, creating what Lyn dubs a “slow-motion runaway train.” She explains:

“Large U.S. fiscal deficits are going to continue for the foreseeable future, five, 10 years, any sort of investable time horizon. There are a bunch of reasons why, and a lot of them have to do with political polarization. It’s very hard to either massively raise taxes or massively cut spending in a very polarized situation, as well as mechanically the kind of debt levels they find themselves in.”

The total amount of money the U.S. government owes to its lenders currently amounts to an eye-watering $36.9 trillion, representing over 120% of GDP, and growing by around $1 trillion every quarter.

Even the most highly skilled ringmaster with smoke and mirrors would struggle to obfuscate such an alarming level of federal debt. With a diminishing ability to pay it off, I wonder, if nothing stops this train, can anything slow it down? She replies:

“There are plenty of things that can slow it down a little bit. Tariffs are one of the things that can slow it down because they bypass some of that polarization. Tariffs are basically really big tax hikes that go around Congress because of an emergency authorization executive order, so they temporarily bypass some of the frictions against them.”

While tariffs may serve to fill the government coffers a little higher, Lyn says the numbers don’t add up enough to make a significant impact: the deficit is around $2 trillion, and the income from tariffs at the current level only equates to roughly a quarter of it at around $500 billion a year. Plus, “we’re already seeing exemptions.” She adds:

“The last line for the ‘Nothing stops this train’ view is that the U.S. is very financialized, meaning that our government’s tax receipts are very correlated with asset prices. Any attempts at austerity at this point tend to fail to address the problem because you either slow down the stock market or slow down the economy. Therefore, with a lag, you weaken your other tax receipts and make deficit reduction on a sustained basis hard.”

I nod, contemplating the enormity of the situation and the inevitable collision course the economy is on. She continues:

“Just structurally, it’s growing above target almost without any way to stop it.”

The outlook for Bitcoin and broader crypto markets

We turn the conversation to last week’s market slump following a weaker-than-expected jobs report that triggered former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes to sell off a chunk of his crypto holdings. I ask Lyn how significant the jobs report is and whether she echoes Hayes’ bearish near-term views on global liquidity.

She frowns, pointing out that Hayes is more of a frequent trader than she is, however:

“The jobs report was pretty significant. It was the biggest downward revision in quite a while, and it’s corroborated by other things as well. The ISM Purchasing Managers’ indices are also showing a similar directional weakness.”

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy as it signals the level of demand for products by measuring the amount of ordering activity at U.S. factories. Lyn continues:

“Now, whether that affects Bitcoin and broader crypto, I’m more hesitant to say. While it can slow down earnings that can impair the economy in various ways, it also generally means more Fed dovishness, which, around the margins, is good for Bitcoin and crypto.”

Despite not making short-term trading decisions like Hayes, Lyn gives some credence to his outlook over the coming quarters based on a couple of parameters:

Tariffs may make a dent in the deficit and serve to take the wind out of crypto’s sails (“slightly slower the train for a couple of quarters”), and the treasury is attempting to refill its general cash account (the TGA) after the debt ceiling was passed. That means sucking liquidity out of the system, which can negatively impact risk assets. Lyn explains:

“Ironically, debt ceilings, when they’re an issue, are actually good for liquidity because they force all these pockets of liquidity to go back into the market, but then afterward, when they refill their cash levels, they’re pulling cash out of the system.

They [the treasury] expect to do that through the rest of this quarter, to Arthur’s point, which is historically not amazing for asset prices across the board.”

In contrast, Lyn isn’t too worried about a broader tightening of global liquidity. She says:

“I would say liquidity’s in a middling place because the dollar is no longer falling as it was earlier this year, and the dollar is a really big variable for liquidity, generally. A falling dollar is overall good for global liquidity. At the other end of the spectrum, China’s credit impulse is on the upswing, which is good for global liquidity. So it’s kind of neutral at the current time.”

Bitcoin cycles will be longer and less extreme

While it’s not the perfect setup for a million-dollar Bitcoin, things could definitely be worse. Lyn affirms:

“I don’t think this cycle’s over yet. I think we’re going to see higher highs in Bitcoin this cycle. That could be later this year. That could be early next year. There are lots of little variables that can affect that, but so far, we don’t see any indicators that look like a multi-year top.”

In fact, she explains that we’re “nowhere near multi-year tops” based on various indicators that track market value compared to on-chain cost basis, a “kind of a measure of euphoria.”

“I think liquidity still looks decent, maybe not great for a quarter, but it’s not an acute headwind per se, in my opinion, and going into next year, I still think we’re going to see most likely higher Bitcoin prices.”

How high is that?

Lyn pauses and says she has no firm view. Unlike other personalities in the space, she doesn’t win over more followers by making outlandish predictions. Instead, she simply says:

“I think we’re going over $150k this cycle. Now the number could be much higher than that, but I always try to start conservatively, and it depends on market conditions at that time.”

She believes that Bitcoin cycles are changing, and we should expect this one to be longer and “maybe less extreme” than previous runs. We should also prepare to see strong moves upward followed by periods of consolidation, “rather than going to the moon and collapsing.”

“If you look at what used to be called FANG stocks, and now it’s the Mag7 stocks, basically large-cap U.S. tech stocks, they kept grinding up longer than people thought. Value investors were always shocked that these things just kept growing.

“Sometimes they get over their skis and have a 30% correction, sometimes worse. Sometimes they have a flattish, choppy year, but then they keep grinding higher after they work out some steam. I think Bitcoin could resemble that model to some extent. Maybe it’s still more volatile than that, but I do think we should expect maybe longer and less extreme cycles on average.”

Bitcoin treasury companies: bear market catalyst?

For anyone who’s been flushed out by a Mt. Gox, China ban, or FTX-style black swan event that abruptly reversed most of Bitcoin’s gains, Lyn’s prediction may provide some relief. But is there any potential catalyst for the end of the cycle quietly chirping away like a canary in a coal mine? Bitcoin treasury companies, for example?

Lyn points out that now that Bitcoin is a multitrillion-dollar asset, it’s inevitable that smart money flows in. She says:

“There’s no world in which only individuals own Bitcoin and magically no large pools of capital want to own it. That only makes sense when Bitcoin is a tiny market.”

She’s not concerned about the centralization threat to Bitcoin posed by entities like Strategy gobbling up BTC like it’s going out of style (Strategy’s BTC holdings currently stand at over 628,791, just shy of 3% of the entire supply). She simply shrugs and says it’s no different from previous cycles:

“At one point, Mt. Gox supposedly had over 800,000 coins, and there were fewer coins back then. So that was a bigger percentage of coins than, say, BlackRock or Strategy has now. So while there’s always some degree of centralization concerns, it’s really not worse now than it was at periods of times in the past. So, no. I’m not really worried about that from a centralization perspective.”

What is important to be on the lookout for, Lyn explains, is the amount of leverage in the system, since “any degree of euphoria and leverage is what causes the next downward cycle.” Bitcoin needs upward volatility to go from zero to trillions of dollars of value and become relevant on a global scale; and upward volatility, Lyn warns, breeds euphoria and leverage.

“That’s when you get over your skis and you get consolidations and downside volatility. There are obviously other liquidations that happen from time to time, so they certainly could feed the next downturn, but I don’t view it as fundamentally different from prior cycles, and the current leverage in the treasury space is not that high.

MicroStrategy has pretty low leverage relative to their Bitcoin. Metaplanet has relatively low leverage relative to their Bitcoin. We’ll see how the others come as they go. I certainly think that we’ll see a washout. We’ll see a lot of altcoin treasury companies get washed out, and some Bitcoin ones that are poorly managed are going to be at risk in the next downturn.”

The roaring 20s and the decade-long inflation

It was sometime during the COVID lockdowns that Lyn began discussing the persistent inflation that would stem from shuttering the world and inflating the money supply. She would later characterize the 2020s as the decade of inflation, as governments struggle to rein in rising costs. Does Lyn expect this trend to continue?

“To some extent, I mean, we’re in 2025. We’re still above the way the Fed measures inflation. We’re still above their official target even though it has come down. Now, whether or not we have another dramatic spike comes partially down to whether energy is constrained or not. It’s pretty hard to have major inflation without energy suppression, so anything that keeps the supply of energy high is a way of keeping inflation down.”

Unlike previous decades, she says, where we were able to print money and offset it with productivity gains from automating manufacturing, she sees the 2020s as “stickier” in terms of average inflation; unless we realize a major productivity increase through a technology such as AI, although even that won’t bring down the cost of store-of-value assets. She says:

“The things that are truly scarce, like waterfront property, gold, fine art, high-quality stocks, and things like that, all go up dramatically because it’s hard to increase those things. So I think going forward, AI making, say, white collar types of services cheaper can suppress in some way CPI and certain wages and expenditures that people have.

This could be offset by ongoing money printing, higher gold, higher Bitcoin, higher prestige properties, and just truly scarce things. So I do think that we’re still in a sticky inflation environment, even though it’s hard to get dramatic inflation without energy shortages.”

AI and the economics of white-collar work

Since she’s brought up AI for its productivity gains, I ask if she’s concerned about job losses and whether she believes it’s a net positive for humanity, being something of an AI skeptic myself. Lyn’s markedly more optimistic. Just like the runaway fiscal deficit train, she says AI is inevitable.

“At this stage, if you try to ban it in one country, another will do it, and it will be open-sourced in some capacity. Like any technology, it can be disruptive when it hits; a lot of people can lose their jobs at once.”

She likens AI to social media in the way the latter disrupted social interaction, and warns that it must be used carefully to avoid doing more harm than good. I recall reading an MIT study, to her point, that found AI to be a great learning tool; as long as people didn’t become so dependent on it that their intelligence drained away like blood from an open wound.

Lyn continues:

“It’s a good thing that we find ways to make repetitive white-collar work cheaper and more affordable because that allows those people or future generations to do other types of work, which is true for any time we automated textiles or farming with tractors and hydrocarbons and things like that. It’s the same thing except it’s quicker.”

She points out that portable AI is different from data center AI and marvels at the mechanics of the human brain: our ability to process complex thoughts and emotions, “very high bandwidth senses,” and “self-healing” capability run on just 20 watts of power. She enthuses:

“It’s remarkable. It’s less than an incandescent light bulb. The equivalent amount of processing in a data center runs on megawatts of power, so millions of watts of power…

I don’t think we’re anywhere near the level where there’s nothing humans could do to add value over silicon. I think it’s more a case of disruption that then puts more people into doing other things.”

I nod, wondering whether my metaphorical lightbulb requires as much energy as Lyn Alden’s giant brain.

Inflation, disruption, broken money… oh my!

With persistent inflation, societal disruption, and broken money, to boot, this era bears all the hallmarks of a fourth turning, and I struggle to feel positive about where it all ends. I wonder what Lyn thinks. Is this a good time to be alive? She ponders:

“I think so. Fewer people die from avoidable things than almost ever before globally. It’s not an accident that the population bubble is happening now… For the most part, I consider it good, but it goes through waves of getting too much, like when people get cut off from social connections. People have way more depression now than hunter-gatherers, even though in most capacities, we live longer and are less likely to die from something random…

Technology is polarizing because, in some ways, it becomes like a winner-take-most, and to the extent that we get through this whole thing successfully, I think we have to learn to use technology in a more natural way than be so reliant on it. I think eventually that will be the case.”

Lyn also believes that AI won’t continue to develop and improve ad infinitum, but will eventually hit a plateau, just like aviation did: progress within that industry has been fairly stagnant for years, following its mind-blowing takeoff in the 20th Century. She says:

“We went from the Wright brothers to people on the moon in one human lifetime. But then, once we hit the 70s, we slowed down. We still don’t have a jet faster than the Blackbird. We still don’t have commercial aviation faster than the Concorde. We don’t even have that anymore…

I think in time, similar things will happen to electronics where we’ll reach certain densities that are hard to keep dramatically improving on, and it will allow us more time to absorb what we already have.”

Follow Lyn Alden on X or check out lynalden.com for in-depth analysis and insights.

Popular macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden isn’t sold on Bitcoin’s (BTC) functionality as a medium of exchange yet.

Alden explains in a new analysis that people with specific payment issues like capital controls and payment de-platforming find BTC useful, but they can often also use less-volatile stablecoins as short-term solutions to those same problems.

“There are some very well-meaning Bitcoin proponents trying to convince Bitcoin holders to spend it more. I don’t particularly view that as a sustainable practice. Bitcoin is not going to catch on as a charity. In order for spending it to catch on persistently at scale (i.e. not just billions of dollar-equivalents in annual global medium-of-exchange volume, but trillions), it has to solve problems for spenders and/or recipients that other solutions are not doing. And at this stage of adoption, that’s not necessarily the case, especially with capital gains taxes applicable to every single transaction and with options like stablecoins for near-term spending needs where volatility needs to be low.”

Alden says Bitcoin instead has value due to its “optionality.”

“Owning a sound, liquid, fungible, portable store of value that is going through its adoption phase gives the owner some perks, or options, that other assets do not. Mainly, they can bring their store of value wherever they want in the world without relying on central counterparties and credit. It also allows them to make crossborder payments, including to deplatformed recipients, through substantial friction even if they are staying put where they are. They might not be able to ubiquitously pay with it, but if need be they can find ways to convert it to local currency in most environments that they find themselves in, and in some cases can indeed pay with it directly.”

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

&nbsp

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

Macro guru Lyn Alden says that one traditional asset class is looking more promising than most are giving it credit for.

In a new interview with Jimmy Conor, Alden says she’s expecting more or less “stagnant” markets in the near future.

However, Alden says there will be “pockets of opportunity” – one of which is US financials, which she says she’s bullish on.

“I think that’s kind of the phase we’re entering, so that’s why I expect a generally more stagnant market with pockets of opportunity. I’m public that I’m actually bullish on US financials at the current time.

Ironically, as the US enters a slow-motion fiscal crisis, one of the winning sides is the private sector financials because everybody is fighting the last battle of what banks are going to be in trouble, or are we going to have a big credit event… 

I think that the biggest one is on the sovereign level, and that tends to be pretty decent for the private entities in the ecosystem…

Basically, this gets taken out in terms of fiscal dominance, running things hot for a long period of time, taking it out on the currency rather than through major private sector deleveraging. So I think right now US banks on average are pretty cheap and they’re pretty well capitalized, so outside of certain rare pockets, I’m pretty bullish on US financials and US banks in particular.

No one’s really interested in buying them right now, but I find them interesting. It’s not the only asset I’d own, but I’m a lot less bearish on them than the market seems to think.”

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

&nbsp

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said during an April 17 interview with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories.

While she still expects Bitcoin to post gains by year-end, Alden noted that the tariffs introduced in February have tempered her earlier bullish outlook.

Lyn Alden Says Liquidity Surge Could Propel Bitcoin to Higher Targets

Alden explained that a major liquidity boost could push Bitcoin toward more ambitious targets.

Such a scenario might occur if the U.S. bond market faces a crisis, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond with quantitative easing or yield curve control.

Despite current macro headwinds, Alden believes there is still a “good chance” Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 mark in 2025.

However, she warned that global market volatility remains a key obstacle, especially because Bitcoin trades continuously — unlike traditional equity markets with limited trading hours.

“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she said, pointing out that Bitcoin often reacts first to market jitters due to its round-the-clock nature.

While its correlation to tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100 has been noted, Alden believes Bitcoin can sometimes diverge, particularly when broader market conditions weigh on U.S. equities without directly impacting global liquidity.

She drew comparisons to the period between 2003 and 2007, when a weak U.S. dollar cycle fueled capital flows into commodities, emerging markets, and gold — bypassing U.S. stocks.

A similar environment could prove favorable for Bitcoin, Alden suggested.

“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” she added.

In a previous research report published in September, Alden described Bitcoin as a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” noting it moves in sync with global M2 money supply 83% of the time over any given 12-month stretch.

Bitcoin Could Face Extended Consolidation Despite Bullish Hype: 10x Research

As reported, 10x Research’s head of research Markus Thielen has argued that Bitcoin may be entering a period of extended consolidation.

In a recent market note, Thielen warned that short-term technical signals are painting a more cautious picture, even as many analysts forecast new all-time highs by mid-year.

Thielen pointed to the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator, a technical indicator that measures momentum, suggesting the market is displaying traits more consistent with a late-cycle top than the beginning of a new bull run.

While Thielen urges caution, other analysts maintain a more bullish stance.

Economists Timothy Peterson and Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, expect Bitcoin to hit new highs in Q2.

Last week, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reiterated his December prediction that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 before the close of 2025.

Hougan argued that recent developments in U.S. trade policy, particularly under former President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff push, could act as tailwinds for Bitcoin.

The post Lyn Alden Says Bitcoin Would Be Higher if Not for Trump’s Tariff Shock appeared first on Cryptonews.

Popular macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden believes that the current Bitcoin (BTC) correction is similar to the one witnessed in March 2024 based on one key on-chain metric.

In a new interview on The Your Life! Your Terms! YouTube channel, Alden says she’s keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, an on-chain indicator that helps assess whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market cap (market value) to the average price at which all coins were last moved (realized value).

The macro guru explains that during the initial stages of a bull market, Bitcoin’s market cap tends to soar, while its average cost basis lags as early investors hold on to their coins in anticipation of more rallies, resulting in a higher MVRV value.

Alden says that when the MVRV soars to extreme levels, it drives more long-term investors to unload their holdings, which can signal the start of a multi-year bear market.

For now, the macro expert says the metric is still within its usual bull market range, leading her to believe that BTC can still soar to greater heights.

“When you see more and more coins at those higher price levels, it helps lower that ratio because basically the average cost basis is catching up to some extent with that wild explosion in market cap.

So what I generally point out is that we’ve not really seen extremes yet this year. Back in March 2024, when we broke out to new all-time highs for the first time in a couple of years, Bitcoin hit $73,000. That metric got a little bit euphoric, but nothing like a multi-year top historically has been. And so we saw a seven-month consolidation, but nothing really worse than that. 

Similarly, when Bitcoin hit $108,000 more recently, that metric got a little bit overdone, but again, it wasn’t those multi-year dislocations that we normally see. 

For me, I’m more on the lookout for probabilities of breaking out versus breaking down. And so my view is that there’s still a higher probability of breaking up and to say that, I don’t think we’re set for a multi-year bear market until we probably reach higher prices.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $81,357.

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

&nbsp

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney