XRP/BTC pair shows signs of weakness after failed breakout attempts

XRP price is on edge after a major bear signal appears on XRP/BTC chart.

• Double-top. XRP/BTC is now signaling potential exhaustion.

XRP’s bid to prove itself against Bitcoin has run out of steam, and the charts are starting to make that clearer with each passing week. What initially looked like the start of a major breakout on the XRP/BTC pair now resembles the shape of a double top, a formation that typically indicates weakness rather than strength and basically says that the trend is exhausted.

• Key support at risk. XRP/BTC is now hovering near 0.00002200 BTC.

The rally that began earlier this year lifted XRP above its 200-week average. For a moment, it seemed like the token might chip away at Bitcoin’s lead. The price pushed into the 0.00003200 BTC region twice, only to be rejected both times, sending the pair back toward familiar support levels.

The inability to extend higher after those attempts has left 0.00002200 BTC as the line to watch, because, historically, once this level is lost, the structure usually breaks toward 0.00002000 BTC. Moving averages flattening across the board add weight to the argument that the upside potential has been spent.

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Ripple projects $16 trillion in crypto custody by 2030

The five-year tokenization market prediction sparks interest.

• 2030 forecast. Ripple predicts 10% of global assets will be tokenized by 2030.

In its recent tweet, Ripple shared a five-year prediction for the tokenization market, stating that by 2030, 10% of global assets are expected to be tokenized. Digital asset custody is anticipated to drive this adoption surge, with crypto assets under custody projected to reach $16 trillion by 2030. 

• Ripple Custody adoption. Société Générale FORGE issues EURCV (EUR-backed stablecoin) on XRP.

Custody, a core safekeeping capability, is the bedrock of institutional digital asset services ranging from tokenized real estate and treasuries to stablecoins and cryptocurrencies.

In this light, Ripple Custody is gaining momentum. Société Générale FORGE, the crypto arm of French financial services company Société Générale, is issuing its EURO-backed stablecoin EURCV on XRP Ledger using Ripple Custody, while BDACS in South Korea custodies Ripple’s stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD).

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DOGE confirms golden cross as ETF launch nears

DOGE price has risen since start of week.

• Golden cross confirmed. DOGE’s four-hour chart shows short-term MA crossing above long-term MA, a bullish signal.

Dogecoin recently confirmed a golden cross on its four-hour chart, which happens when the short-term moving average crosses over the long-term MA. The golden cross has coincided with a price increase for Dogecoin, as it is up 24% on a weekly basis.

The emergence of a golden cross invalidated a death cross, which appeared on the four-hour chart at the close of August, following which Dogecoin’s price saw a period of lackluster trading. Dogecoin’s price has risen since the start of this week, when the likelihood of a Dogecoin ETF in the U.S. began to emerge.

• ETF update. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas says DOJE has been delayed again.

Late Thursday, Balchunas stated in an X post that DOJE has been further delayed and might launch sometime next week, hinting at a Thursday launch. Earlier this month, the DOJE ETF won approval under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a framework typically used for mutual funds and diversified ETFs.

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Ex-Wall Street trader sparks debate over alleged Bitcoin wallet thefts

Josh Mandell claims that quantum computing is already in use, and it is helping “a large player” to steal old Bitcoins.

• Josh Mandell’s claim. The former Salomon Brothers and Caxton trader alleges that long-dormant BTC wallets are being secretly drained.

Former Wall Street trader Josh Mandell has made waves on the X social media platform by claiming that old Bitcoins are currently being stolen from long-dormant (“deceased”) wallets. Mandell, who gained a lot of prominence earlier this year with his extremely prescient Bitcoin price prediction, argues that the tech is being secretly used by a “large player” to accumulate more BTC without using the market.   

The former Salomon Brothers and Caxton Associates trader believes that on-chain analysis remains the only obstacle given that it would be capable of detecting such patterns. 

• Industry pushback. Harry Beckwith (Hot Pixel Group) dismissed the claim

“There is literally no chance this is currently happening,” Harry Beckwith, founder of Hot Pixel Group, said in a social media statement. Matthew Pines, executive director at Bitcoin Policy Institute, claims that Mandell’s assumption is “false.”

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Ripple will drop its cross-appeal in its prolonged legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, signaling an end to one of the crypto industry’s most consequential court cases.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced the move on social media on June 27 and also revealed that the SEC is expected to drop its appeal as well.

He wrote:

“We’re closing this chapter once and for all, and focusing on what’s most important – building the Internet of Value.”

The decision follows Judge Analisa Torres’ denial of a joint motion for an indicative ruling earlier this week, marking the second time she dismissed the appeal.

Ripple’s chief legal officer, Stuart Alderoty, explained that the court’s proffered options were to either dismiss its appeal challenging the prior finding on historic institutional sales of XRP or proceed with the appeal and continue litigation.

The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, alleging it conducted an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP tokens to institutional investors. In July 2023, Judge Torres ruled that while XRP itself is not a security and secondary market sales do not violate securities laws, Ripple’s direct sales to institutional investors did constitute unregistered securities offerings.

The ruling was considered a landmark split decision, with Ripple securing a major victory for the industry in clarifying that programmatic sales and secondary market trading of XRP do not fall under SEC jurisdiction. However, the finding on institutional sales posed potential financial penalties for Ripple.

The SEC initially signaled an intent to appeal the ruling on XRP’s non-security status but later indicated it would drop that appeal. Ripple’s decision to abandon its cross-appeal effectively ends the litigation over the institutional sales ruling, avoiding further legal expenses and uncertainty.

The outcome preserves XRP’s legal clarity in the U.S. market while finalizing the company’s settlement exposure. Ripple is expected to pay a civil penalty related to institutional sales, though the final amount is yet to be determined.

With both appeals set to be withdrawn, the case closes a chapter that has defined crypto’s regulatory landscape for nearly five years. Ripple now plans to shift its focus back to expanding global payment corridors, token utility, and adoption of its XRP Ledger as it advances its vision for an Internet of Value.

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On-chain data shows the Ethereum transaction fee has dropped to the lowest level in years recently. Here’s what this could mean for ETH’s price.

Ethereum Average Fees Now Valued At Just $0.168

In a new Insight post, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has discussed the latest trend in the Average Fees of Ethereum. The “Average Fees” is a metric that, as its name suggests, keeps track of the average amount of fees that senders on the ETH network are attaching with their transactions.

This indicator’s value directly correlates to the amount of traffic that the blockchain is dealing with. The reason behind this lies in the fact that the network only has a limited capacity to handle transfers.

When the chain is busy, transfers can remain stuck in waiting until the transactions ahead of them clear out. Those who want their transactions to be processed ASAP can choose to attach a larger-than-average fee, so that the validators prioritise them.

In times of especially high traffic, this kind of competition among users can quickly drive the Average Fees up to significant levels. When there is little activity, however, senders have little incentive to pay any notable amount of fees, so the metric’s value can remain low.

It would appear that Ethereum has been witnessing the latter kind of conditions recently, as the Average Fees have registered a drop.

Looks like the value of the metric has declined to a low level in recent days | Source: Santiment

As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum Average Fees have fallen to a low of $0.168 recently, which is the lowest that it has been since 2020. This means that activity on the network is historically low at the moment.

According to the analytics firm, this may not actually be so bad from a trading perspective, as low fee periods can often precede rebounds in the cryptocurrency’s price.

Below is a chart that shows an example of this trend in action:

The past trend in the transaction fees of ETH | Source: Santiment

As is visible in the above graph, the Ethereum Average Fees falling under the $1 mark back in 2023 led to bullish momentum for the asset. The explanation behind this pattern may lie in the fact that low-fee periods can indicate disinterest from the crowd.

Historically, ETH and other digital assets have tended to move in a way that goes contrary to the expectation of the majority. This means that a lack of optimism can lead to rebounds, while excessive hype can result in tops. From the chart, it’s apparent that ETH’s Q1 2024 top came as the metric surpassed $15, indicating a plethora of excitement.

“Generally, fee levels under $1 are a pretty promising sign that the crowd has become disinterested,” notes the analytics firm. “Just remember that there is no set guaranteed “bottom” or “top” level every time fee costs breach below or above a certain level.”

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $1,600, up more than 1% in the last 24 hours.

Looks like the price of the asset hasn't moved much recently | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum (ETH) has struggled to keep pace with Bitcoin (BTC), hitting its weakest level in over five years.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that the ETH/BTC trading pair has fallen to 0.024, its lowest point since December 2020. This signals Ethereum’s declining strength relative to Bitcoin, reinforcing the market’s shifting sentiment.

Ethereum’s market dominance has also suffered, dropping to 8.8%—its lowest level since May 2020.

In contrast, Bitcoin has continued to strengthen its hold on the market. Since 2022, BTC’s dominance has steadily risen to 61.1% of the crypto market, marking one of its longest growth streaks.

Crypto analyst Rajat Soni explained the significant shift in ETH’s valuation against BTC, pointing out that one BTC could buy around six ETH in 2017. Today, the same amount of Bitcoin can purchase approximately 42 ETH, highlighting Ethereum’s significant decline in value over time.