21Shares – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sat, 30 Aug 2025 20:39:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.8 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 21Shares – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 21Shares to Launch First-Ever SEI ETF in the United States https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-to-launch-first-ever-sei-etf-in-the-united-states/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-to-launch-first-ever-sei-etf-in-the-united-states/#respond Sat, 30 Aug 2025 20:38:59 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-to-launch-first-ever-sei-etf-in-the-united-states/

21Shares has submitted a proposal to US regulators to launch a fund that would follow the market value of SEI, the native token of the Sei blockchain.

The application, filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on August 28, outlines plans to use pricing data from CF Benchmarks, which combines rates from several crypto exchanges to provide a reference point.

If approved, the fund would be among the first in the US to offer access to SEI in the form of an exchange-traded product. Currently, the only crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading in the US track Bitcoin
BTC


$108,664.72

and Ethereum
ETH


$4,344.59

.

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The Sei blockchain launched in August 2023. It is designed to support decentralized exchanges and online marketplaces. The SEI token is used for transaction fees and community governance.

According to the filing, Coinbase



$1.25B

Custody will be responsible for securely holding the SEI tokens
linked to the ETF.

21Shares also mentioned the possibility of staking the tokens to earn additional income, although it noted that this aspect is still under review due to potential legal, tax, and regulatory concerns.

In a post on X on August 28, 21Shares described this filing as an important step in expanding investor access to the Sei network through regulated investment vehicles.

Recently, the SEC increased the maximum number of options contracts that may be held for ETFs. What is the new cap? Read the full story.


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21Shares says June payroll surprise sets soft-landing stage that could catalyze Bitcoin beyond $200k https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-june-payroll-surprise-sets-soft-landing-stage-that-could-catalyze-bitcoin-beyond-200k/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-june-payroll-surprise-sets-soft-landing-stage-that-could-catalyze-bitcoin-beyond-200k/#respond Thu, 03 Jul 2025 21:27:15 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-june-payroll-surprise-sets-soft-landing-stage-that-could-catalyze-bitcoin-beyond-200k/

June US employment data exceeded forecasts and sets a macro backdrop that could send Bitcoin (BTC) past $200,000, according to a research note from Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.

The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Additionally, it came below the estimated 4.3%.

Mena writes that the numbers show “labor market strength without overheating,” a mix that supports the Federal Reserve’s slow-landing narrative. 

Futures tied to the federal funds rate now fully price a 25-basis-point cut at the September policy meeting, and the CME FedWatch Tool assigns roughly a 75% chance to that outcome.

With headline inflation tracking 2.4%, Mena argues that the Fed “has room to act,” primarily as political pressure builds. The pressure comes mainly from President Donald Trump’s letter urging a return to a 1% terminal rate.

Liquidity channels and market response

Rate-cut expectations are filtering into risk assets. Mena notes that S&P 500 futures are “flirting with all-time highs” near 6,300, while Bitcoin trades between $108,000 and $110,000 on July 3 and “waits for a catalyst.” 

As of press time, BTC is priced at $109,518.14, representing a nearly 1% increase in the past 24 hours.

Mena noted that Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value has slipped to 62%, down 3% in recent days. He views this as an early sign of capital rotating into altcoins. 

He links the shift to greater liquidity prospects with congressional progress on the Market Structure Bill and the GENIUS Act, legislation he says could help dampen regulatory uncertainty and widen institutional participation.

Path to $200,000

Mena connected the data chain with a broader context that can propel Bitcoin towards the $200,000 threshold. He mentioned that steady but non-inflationary job growth paves the way for Fed easing, lower policy rates, and liquidity release. 

Historically, fresh capital is first allocated to Bitcoin and then to altcoins. In that sequence, he writes, “the runway is forming” for a push through the previous cycle’s high. 

The strategist sees the $200,000 mark as “a decisive breakout level” rather than a cycle peak, adding that altcoins could outperform once Bitcoin establishes a new range.

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Nasdaq Files to List 21Shares SUI ETF, Kicking Off SEC Review https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nasdaq-files-to-list-21shares-sui-etf-kicking-off-sec-review/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nasdaq-files-to-list-21shares-sui-etf-kicking-off-sec-review/#respond Thu, 12 Jun 2025 02:35:32 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nasdaq-files-to-list-21shares-sui-etf-kicking-off-sec-review/

Nasdaq has submitted a 19b-4 filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeking approval to list the 21Shares SUI ETF.

The filing, which is now published in the SEC’s public register, initiates the formal beginning of the regulatory review process and follows 21Shares’ S-1 registration statement, which was filed in April.

Bringing SUI ETF to US Market

The proposed fund signals growing institutional interest in the Sui ecosystem, a Layer 1 blockchain known for its high throughput and developer-friendly architecture. 21Shares already offers a Sui exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe, following listings on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, and the products have seen a surge in inflows in recent months.

In fact, Sui Foundation revealed that more than $300 million is allocated to SUI-based investment products globally. As such, a successful US launch is expected to provide broader access to the network and its token. Interest in Sui has extended beyond 21Shares, with firms including Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, Grayscale, and Ant Financial rolling out various initiatives tied to the network since late 2024.

In an official statement, Kevin Boon, President of Mysten Labs, said,

“The Sui ecosystem has become a primary destination for serious builders and institutions, and 21Shares has built its legacy on identifying those trends early. Looking back at our mainnet only two years ago, the milestone of a NASDAQ filing is a powerful moment. We are proud to help 21Shares build towards a world where every investor can access SUI.”

Sui Q1 Performance

Sui’s DeFi ecosystem gained significant momentum in Q1, as the average daily DEX volume reached a record $304.3 million, up 14.6% quarter-over-quarter. Cetus and Bluefin dominated trading, while Kriya, DeepBook, and Turbos contributed to liquidity diversification.

Despite this growth, the SUI token struggled during the period, with its circulating market cap plunging 40.3% to $7.2 billion, double the broader market’s 18.2% decline.

The altcoin saw a brief respite in mid-May and was trading near the $3.96 mark but declined shortly thereafter as it experienced increased volatility and bottomed out below $3.00 in early June, along with the broader market drawdown. However, it has since rebounded, climbing back to approximately $3.50 by June 11.

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Stalling first-mover advantage: VanEck, 21Shares, Canary press SEC to restore first-to-file ETF review order https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stalling-first-mover-advantage-vaneck-21shares-canary-press-sec-to-restore-first-to-file-etf-review-order/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stalling-first-mover-advantage-vaneck-21shares-canary-press-sec-to-restore-first-to-file-etf-review-order/#respond Fri, 06 Jun 2025 19:42:46 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stalling-first-mover-advantage-vaneck-21shares-canary-press-sec-to-restore-first-to-file-etf-review-order/

VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital requested on June 5 that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reinstate the queue-based review system that awards exchange-traded product approvals in the order issuers filed. 

In a joint letter to Chair Paul Atkins, the firms said concurrent approvals strip early filers of the advantage that traditionally offsets higher legal and compliance costs.

In the letter, VanEck chief executive Jan van Eck, Canary’s Steve McClurg, and 21Shares president Duncan Moir asked the SEC to apply the filing-date principle to pending products, including any future Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) submissions.

The letter also calls on the regulator to “nurture a competitive financial marketplace” by restoring predictable timelines.

Stalled first-mover advantage

The letter argued that departures from the queue began in October 2021, when the ProShares Bitcoin Futures Fund received a three-day head start and secured more than 90% of the market share. 

Early filers for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs later saw their applications cleared on Jan. 10, 2024, the same day larger asset managers that filed months or years later received green lights. 

The firms contend that such timing favors issuers with deeper distribution networks, encourages copycat filings, and concentrates assets under bigger brands.

The authors said the pattern harms market integrity by weakening incentives for original research and discouraging smaller sponsors from taking early risks. 

They also noted that honoring filing dates would not add material strain on SEC staff because registration statements already arrive in sequence and can retain their original time gaps through the review cycle.

Calls echo prior public remarks

VanEck digital assets research chief Matt Sigel has repeated the queue argument since 2024. On May 23, 2024, Sigel warned that deviations undercut the Administrative Procedure Act’s transparency standard and force early filers to shoulder prolonged update expenses.

He added that refusing to follow this standard “creates an uneven playing field for issuers who filed earlier and had to wait longer.”

On January 22, Sigel urged the regulator’s new leadership to “respect the line” after the agency formed its Crypto Task Force. 

Canary Capital chief executive Steve McClurg previewed the coordinated push during a late-May panel at the Litecoin Summit in Las Vegas, telling attendees that several issuers planned a formal appeal for a return to the queue. 

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart also commented on the letter, stating that the first-to-file approach was standard practice until the 2024 launches of the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

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ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF to split stock for retail investors https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ark-21shares-bitcoin-etf-to-split-stock-for-retail-investors/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ark-21shares-bitcoin-etf-to-split-stock-for-retail-investors/#respond Tue, 03 Jun 2025 03:43:56 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ark-21shares-bitcoin-etf-to-split-stock-for-retail-investors/

The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) will undergo a 3-for-1 share split later this month as the fund’s issuer, 21Shares, says it is looking to boost its appeal to retail investors.

The stock split is slated for June 16 and is designed to “make shares more accessible to a broader base of investors and enhance trading efficiency,” 21Shares said on June 2. 

The exchange-traded fund’s (ETF) investment strategy aiming to track the price of Bitcoin (BTC) won’t change, and its Bitcoin holdings will remain identical, 21Shares said. It added that the ETF will continue trading as usual, and the total net asset value of the fund will also remain unchanged.

A stock split is when a company divides its existing shares into multiple new shares. In a 3-for-1 split, each share becomes three, but the total value remains the same.

Some investors may feel priced out when asset or share prices rise, which can dissuade them from buying certain stocks. This leads some companies or ETF issuers to split their stock and lower the price per share, making it more affordable to retail investors, even though the underlying value is unchanged.

ARKB closed June 2 trading at $104.25 a share, meaning if a stock split happened now, one share would be priced at a third of the current value at just under $35.

ARKB stock split details. Source: ARK 21Shares 

The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, a joint offering between 21Shares and investment manager ARK Invest, has recently been the worst-performing fund in terms of flows out of the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US.

Related: Cathie Wood’s ARK bags $26M in Coinbase shares, unloads Bitcoin ETF

It has seen six consecutive trading days of outflows totalling $430 million. That trend didn’t change on June 2, when $74 million left the product, according to CoinGlass. 

However, it is the third-largest fund in terms of total aggregate inflows with $2.37 billion, trailing similar ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity. 

ARKB currently has $4.8 billion in assets under management with a year-to-date return of 7.35%.

Bitcoin ETFs outflows increase

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have reversed a trend of inflows, with an aggregate net outflow of $1.2 billion over the past three trading days, according to CoinGlass.

The outflows accelerated as Bitcoin prices dropped 4% in a fall from over $108,000 to just below $104,000 on June 2. 

Glassnode reported that last week’s inflow of more than 6,100 BTC marked the seventh consecutive week of net inflows, “highlighting consistent demand despite cooling momentum.”

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows since December. Source: Glassnode

Magazine: Bitcoin $200K ‘obvious’ breakout, GameStop’s first BTC buy: Hodler’s Digest

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ark-21shares-bitcoin-etf-to-split-stock-for-retail-investors/feed/ 0 39813 SEC delays decision on Bitwise, 21Shares Solana ETF applications, opens public consultation https://earlybirdsinvest.com/sec-delays-decision-on-bitwise-21shares-solana-etf-applications-opens-public-consultation/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/sec-delays-decision-on-bitwise-21shares-solana-etf-applications-opens-public-consultation/#respond Mon, 19 May 2025 23:27:41 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/sec-delays-decision-on-bitwise-21shares-solana-etf-applications-opens-public-consultation/

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) extended its review of two high-profile proposals for spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds, signaling further delays in the approval process for crypto-linked investment products.

The agency said it would begin a new round of proceedings to assess whether the ETF proposals from asset managers Bitwise and 21Shares comply with key provisions of the Securities Exchange Act.

Specifically, the SEC cited concerns related to market manipulation and investor protection, factors it is obligated to weigh before granting any ETF listing.

Prolonged wait

Bitwise’s application, filed in January through Cboe’s BZX Exchange, and 21Shares’ separate proposal have now each been delayed at least once.

While both firms have experience offering crypto investment products, 21Shares already manages approved Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs. The SEC has yet to authorize any fund tied to Solana, a blockchain often touted as a faster, lower-cost alternative to Ethereum.

The regulator said it is seeking additional public input and analytical time to determine whether the proposed rule changes would meet its standards for preventing fraud and ensuring investor confidence.

The regulator’s cautious tone suggests that Solana, despite its rising prominence, may face a longer path to ETF approval than its predecessors.

Regulatory inertia

The delay comes amid a broader regulatory bottleneck affecting several digital asset ETFs. The regulator has postponed decisions on several crypto ETFs in recent weeks and months. Nonetheless, optimism remains strong in the market.

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have previously stated that they expect high chances of approval for most ETF applications, with the final green light anticipated sometime in the latter half of the year.

They estimated a 90% likelihood of eventual approval for both Solana and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs, attributing their optimism to favorable commodity classifications and rising institutional interest.

However, with final decisions potentially months away and broader policy uncertainty lingering, investors may be forced to wait until late 2025 for clarity on whether Solana ETFs will make it to US markets.

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Dogecoin ETF Race Heats Up As SEC Acknowledges 21Shares Filing https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-etf-race-heats-up-as-sec-acknowledges-21shares-filing/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-etf-race-heats-up-as-sec-acknowledges-21shares-filing/#respond Sat, 17 May 2025 01:33:24 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-etf-race-heats-up-as-sec-acknowledges-21shares-filing/

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The prospect of a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) finally making its way into the US financial markets has taken a major step forward and now feels more realistic than ever. This fresh optimism stems from a significant regulatory update: the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially acknowledged the 21Shares filing for a Dogecoin ETF, marking the beginning of a formal review process.

SEC Acknowledges NASDAQ’s Filing To List And Trade Shares of 21Shares’ Dogecoin ETF

The SEC’s acknowledgment of 21Shares’ DOGE ETF filing signals the start of an official review process. On May 13, 2025, the Commission published a notice confirming that Nasdaq’s request to list the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF had been received, effectively putting the proposal on the public docket.

However, it is important to note that this step does not equate to an approval. Instead, it initiates a period of scrutiny and public comment that can extend up to 240 days before a final decision is due. In fact, the SEC’s ultimate deadline for the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF would be January 9, 2026, if all extensions are utilized. But for now, the acknowledgment locks in a timeline and affirms that the agency is actively considering the DOGE fund idea.

21Shares, a Switzerland-based asset manager, filed its initial registration for a spot Dogecoin ETF on April 9. The firm partnered with the Dogecoin Foundation’s corporate arm, known as House of Doge, to help promote the fund. According to the filing, the proposed ETF is designed as a passive trust holding actual DOGE tokens, tracking a benchmark index of the meme coin’s price without using leverage or derivatives. Furthermore, Coinbase Custody Trust was brought on as the custodian for the fund’s DOGE holdings, probably to target institutional and retail brokerage channels.

DOGE ETF Race Heats Up. Now Closer Than Ever

The review of the Dogecoin ETF comes at a time when the SEC’s stance on crypto products is shifting. Under the new leadership of SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the agency has shown signs of a more open approach toward cryptocurrency investments. The current administration in Washington has been described as more crypto-friendly than its predecessor, and the SEC has recently taken steps like dismissing cases against crypto companies and engaging in crypto-focused discussions with industry stakeholders. This backdrop of a softer regulatory outlook gives the DOGE ETF bid a fighting chance that might not have existed just a couple of years ago.

In addition to 21Shares, several other asset management firms have filed applications to launch Dogecoin ETFs in the United States. Bitwise Asset Management submitted its application for a spot Dogecoin ETF on January 28, 2025, with NYSE Arca proposing to list the fund. REX Shares, in partnership with Osprey Funds, filed for a Dogecoin ETF in January 2025. Their application is among different memecoins, including products linked to the $TRUMP token and BONK. 

As of mid-May 2025, the SEC is reviewing DOGE ETF applications from 21Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, and the REX-Osprey partnership. Industry analysts estimate a 63% to 75% chance of approval for these ETFs this year.

Dogecoin
DOGE trading at $0.22 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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21Shares says Solana on pace to become linchpin of digital finance https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-solana-on-pace-to-become-linchpin-of-digital-finance/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-solana-on-pace-to-become-linchpin-of-digital-finance/#respond Tue, 13 May 2025 18:43:27 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-solana-on-pace-to-become-linchpin-of-digital-finance/

Solana (SOL) has emerged as the fastest-growing Layer 1 blockchain of 2025, surpassing Ethereum (ETH) in developer growth and gaining ground across DeFi, payments, and AI, according to 21Shares’ latest State of Crypto report.

In the first two months of the year alone, Solana processed $364 billion in volume, more than Ethereum and Coinbase, and now supports over 100 million monthly active users.

With average fees under $0.01 and sub-second transaction finality, Solana’s high-speed, low-cost architecture is driving adoption from both crypto-native users and major institutions.

Visa, Shopify, and Stripe are now settling stablecoin payments on Solana, while PayPal and First Digital hold over $100 million in Solana-native assets.

Stablecoin supply on the network has jumped 600% year-over-year, exceeding $12 billion as of the end of the first quarter.

DeFi, memecoins, and AI push

Solana’s DeFi ecosystem has grown to $8 billion in total value locked, up 100% from 2024, and now accounts for 16% of Ethereum’s market share, narrowing a once 20:1 gap to 5:1.

It hosts three of the top 10 DEXs by volume and ranks third globally in stablecoin market cap.

Memecoins remain a key driver of activity, contributing more than half of on-chain volume. The Official TRUMP token launched earlier this year generated $30 billion in trades over 48 hours, temporarily pushing Solana’s throughput to levels rivaling Nasdaq.

Beyond speculation, the network is rapidly expanding into infrastructure and AI. Solana leads all chains in DePIN market cap at $4.2 billion, supporting projects like Helium, Hivemapper, and Render Network.

Solana also dominates the crypto-AI segment, with 66% of AI agent activity and growing adoption of tools like ElizaOS and Arc.

Valuation models suggest significant upside

The report highlights rising concerns around validator centralization, speculative activity, and inflationary pressure following the end of transaction fee burns.

However, the report argued that Solana remains fundamentally undervalued. A discounted cash flow model projects SOL’s fair value between $520 and $1,800, depending on growth rates, far above its current price of around $150.

If Solana captures just half of Ethereum’s market cap, it could see continued growth in payments, AI, and institutional adoption.

The report concluded that Solana is positioned as the primary Layer 1 competitor and the backbone of next-generation blockchain infrastructure.

Solana Market Data

At the time of press 7:40 pm UTC on May. 13, 2025, Solana is ranked #6 by market cap and the price is up 4.65% over the past 24 hours. Solana has a market capitalization of $92.81 billion with a 24-hour trading volume of $4.52 billion. Learn more about Solana ›

Crypto Market Summary

At the time of press 7:40 pm UTC on May. 13, 2025, the total crypto market is valued at at $3.37 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $143.68 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 61.39%. Learn more about the crypto market ›

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21Shares highlights Dogecoin’s role in diversified, high-return investment portfolios https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-highlights-dogecoins-role-in-diversified-high-return-investment-portfolios/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-highlights-dogecoins-role-in-diversified-high-return-investment-portfolios/#respond Fri, 02 May 2025 07:19:06 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-highlights-dogecoins-role-in-diversified-high-return-investment-portfolios/

A modest 1% allocation to Dogecoin (DOGE) could significantly improve portfolio returns without meaningfully increasing risk, according to a new analysis by crypto investment firm 21Shares.

In its April report, the firm evaluated how Dogecoin performs when added to a Bitcoin-enhanced growth strategy.

Stress-tested portfolios

The firm’s portfolio stress-testing showed that the baseline portfolio, a conventional 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds, returned 7.25% annually.

Meanwhile, including a 3% Bitcoin and 1% Dogecoin allocation increased annualized returns to as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in nearly all simulations, suggesting better risk-adjusted performance.

Although the addition introduced some volatility, the increase in maximum drawdown was only marginal, and even without rebalancing, the losses remained contained.

The report emphasized that rebalancing is essential, especially monthly or weekly, to maintain return potential and prevent risk from building up quietly during turbulent markets. The firm attributed Dogecoin’s effectiveness to its low correlation with both traditional assets and the wider crypto market, along with a strong historical return profile.

According to 21Shares, this makes Dogecoin a viable diversifier rather than just a speculative meme.

Dogecoin’s potential path

The report outlined three price projections for Dogecoin in the current market cycle: a bear case, a neutral case, and a bull case.

In the bear case, 21Shares argued that Dogecoin’s recent rally may have already priced in much of its cycle potential.

If the token compounds at 10% annually from its 2021 high of 0.73, it would reach approximately 0.38 by late 2025. This would still be more than double its current value but would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to set a new all-time high within a full market cycle.

In the neutral case, the firm assumed the total crypto market cap would peak at $5 trillion, with Dogecoin maintaining a 3% share. This scenario would result in a DOGE market capitalization of about $150 billion, implying a price near $1 per coin.

This assumes the token continues to lead the memecoin category while adapting to increased competition and changing retail trends.

The bull case relies on historical cycle growth. Between its 2018 low of $0.007 and the 2022 cycle bottom of $0.0585, Dogecoin posted a compounded annual growth rate of 189%.

If DOGE mirrors that trajectory this cycle, it would rise to approximately $1.42. To achieve this, 21Shares said the token would need support from renewed retail enthusiasm, increased adoption, and integration with platforms such as X.

The firm concluded that with proper structure and rebalancing, a small allocation to Dogecoin is not reckless but potentially rewarding.

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Dogecoin Could Hit $1.42 This Cycle In Bull Case, Says 21Shares https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-could-hit-1-42-this-cycle-in-bull-case-says-21shares/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-could-hit-1-42-this-cycle-in-bull-case-says-21shares/#respond Thu, 01 May 2025 19:55:28 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-could-hit-1-42-this-cycle-in-bull-case-says-21shares/

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Research house and exchange-traded-product issuer 21Shares is arguing that Dogecoin has matured into “a smart addition to your portfolio,” projecting a bull-market price target of $1.42 per coin if bullish momentum holds.

In a post published on X on 30 April, the firm told its followers that “Dogecoin isn’t just a meme anymore—it might be a smart addition to your portfolio.” Linking to a research note, 21Shares detailed stress-tested portfolio simulations in which a traditional 60/40 basket of equities and bonds is first “infused with 3 % Bitcoin” and then supplemented with a “modest 1 % DOGE allocation.”

According to the researchers, “the benchmark returned 7.25 % annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95 %. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests,” while the worst peak-to-trough drawdown only “deepened by a few percentage points.”

Related Reading

The study attributes the incremental performance to Dogecoin’s decade-long record of outpacing most large-cap crypto-assets while maintaining “a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets.” Even so, the authors stress that disciplined rebalancing remains vital.

“Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds,” they warn, adding that monthly or weekly rebalancing strikes the best compromise between upside capture and volatility control, particularly “during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen.”

Three Scenarios For Dogecoin

To frame expectations for the coming cycle, 21Shares sets out three scenarios:

In the bear case, Dogecoin’s post-election rally is described as potentially having “front-run its true cycle potential.” If the token merely compounds at 10 % per year from its 2021 peak of $0.73, it would “land around $0.38 by 2025,” a doubling from today’s $0.18 but, for the first time, a failure to record a new all-time high within a full market cycle.

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The neutral case assumes the total crypto-asset market capitalizes at $5 trillion and DOGE’s market share slips from 4 % to 3 %. On those inputs, Dogecoin would be worth roughly $150 billion and trade “near $1 per coin,” about a 5.5-fold gain from current levels, with the token “retaining its stature as the leading memecoin” amid stiffer competition.

The bullish projection scales the token’s compounded growth between the pre-2021 bottom of $0.007 and the current-cycle trough of $0.0585, a rate calculated at 189 % per year. “If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth,” the paper concludes, “DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.”

Such an outcome would require a revival of “memecoin mania,” tangible real-world use cases and, critically, deeper integration with major consumer platforms such as Elon Musk’s X. In that environment, the authors write, a full-throated return of retail exuberance “could re-establish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.”

21Shares finishes on a pragmatic note: “With the right structure, a 1 % allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.”

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.175.

Dogecoin price
DOGE holds inside the channel, 1-day chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on TrdingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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