2.7B – Earlybirds Invest

Digital asset investment vehicles drew in $3.7 billion last week, and represented the second-highest weekly inflow on record. July 10th registered the third-largest single-day inflow ever. This marks the 13th week in a row of inflows, raising the cumulative total to $21.8 billion, with year-to-date inflows hitting $22.7 billion.

Assets under management surpassed the $200 billion milestone for the first time, reaching a record $211 billion. ETP trading volumes also surged to $29 billion, doubling the year’s typical weekly average.

Investors Pour Billions into Bitcoin and Ethereum

In the latest edition of the ‘Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report,’ CoinShares revealed Bitcoin investment products recorded $2.7 billion in inflows last week, which pushed the total assets under management (AuM) to $179.5 billion. Interestingly, this means Bitcoin now represents 54% of the AuM held in gold ETPs for the first time. Short Bitcoin ETPs remained quiet with minor inflows of $0.4 million.

Ethereum extended its streak with a 12th consecutive week of inflows as it amassed $990 million, its fourth-largest on record. In relative terms, Ethereum’s inflows over 12 weeks equate to 19.5% of its AuM, thereby outperforming Bitcoin’s 9.8%. Solana followed with a strong $92.6 million in inflows, while Sui attracted $3.5 million.

During the same period, multi-asset investment products saw $1.1 million in new capital, and Cardano pulled in $0.5 million. On the other hand, XRP led outflows with $104 million, while Chainlink noted $0.5 million in outflows.

Regional flows showed the United States in a clear lead with $3.7 billion in inflows, while Switzerland and Canada posted $65.8 million and $17.1 million, respectively. Australia’s inflows stood at $1 million. Germany recorded the week’s largest outflows with $85.7 million. Sweden and Brazil followed with $15.7 million and $7.5 million in outflows.

These strong inflows into digital assets have coincided with Bitcoin’s breakout.

No Signs of Fatigue?

According to QCP Capital, Bitcoin’s rally above $122,000 shows no signs of slowing. In an update, the firm noted that the market underestimated the strength of this parabolic breakout. A decisive technical move and rising institutional demand are driving the surge.

To top that, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index jumped from 40 to 70 in three weeks. This signals a clear transition from fear to greed among investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $2 billion in net inflows last week, which is indicative of a growing institutional participation in the rally.

Perpetual funding rates are also nearing 30% as leveraged long positions build while total open interest has crossed $43 billion, levels last seen in January. Despite the rally, implied volatility has not spiked as it usually does. Front-end implied vols rose but remain below last year’s average levels. One-month risk reversals are also flat, which points to little demand for immediate upside.

However, September and December risk reversals show strong bids for calls, meaning investors are hedging long-term upside while managing near-term caution. Elevated funding rates also call for careful positioning amid market euphoria. QCP said that it remains structurally bullish on Bitcoin with macro and institutional support. However, it prefers positioning on a pullback rather than chasing the current rally.

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BTC decoupling

Bitcoin’s recent strength relative to U.S. stocks and gold underscores BTC’s decoupling from traditional macro assets, said David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s global head of research.

“It’s rare to witness market inflection points in real time, as we only tend to recognize major regime shifts with the benefit of time and reflection,” Duong said in a Friday report. “This week’s decoupling of bitcoin’s performance from that of traditional macro assets may be as close as we come to such a moment.”

“In our view, this divergence highlights bitcoin’s maturing role as a store-of-value asset—one that is increasingly being viewed by institutional and retail investors alike as resilient against the macroeconomic forces affecting risk assets more broadly,” he wrote.

Doung noted that the thesis is gaining traction with more companies adopting BTC corporate treasuries. Following the success of Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Twenty One Capital, a new firm backed by Tether, Bitfinex, SoftBank, and a Cantor Fitzgerald affiliate, also plans to hold 42,000 BTC at launch.

Due in part to recent accumulation, liquidity in the spot BTC market has been “significantly drained,” Dr. Kirill Kretov, lead strategist at trading automation platform CoinPanel, said in a Telegram note. According to the firm’s proprietary blockchain analysis, a large portion of bitcoin liquidity has been withdrawn from actively transacting addresses, including exchanges, since November 2024, exposing markets to volatile price swings.

“The market is thin, vulnerable, and easily moved by large players,” Kretov said. “Sharp swings of 10% up or down are likely to remain the norm for now.”

Bitcoin’s route to fresh records

While the route could be choppy, this week’s rally is likely the early innings of bitcoin’s next leg higher to new records, said John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lender Ledn.

Based on his technical analysis using Elliott Waves, he said BTC began the fifth and final wave of its multi-year bull market.

BTC price prediction by Ledn CIO John Glover (Ledn/TradingView)

Elliott Wave theory suggests asset prices move in predictable patterns called waves, driven by collective investor psychology. These patterns typically unfold in five-wave trends, in which the first, third, and fifth waves are impulsive rallies, while the second and fourth waves are corrective phases.

While retesting this month’s low at $75,000 cannot be ruled out, Glover sees BTC climbing to a cycle top around late 2025, early 2026.

“My expectations continue to be for a rally to $133-$136k into the end of this year, beginning of next,” he said.

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