Key takeaways:

• A 2021-style bearish divergence on the weekly chart points to a potential 50%+ correction toward $64,000.

• Peter Brandt warns Bitcoin must reclaim its parabolic trendline soon or risk ending its bull cycle before reaching the $150,000 target.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) surge to a record $112,000 sparked renewed hopes for a $150,000 target by year-end, but its swift correction below $105,000 is testing that bullish narrative.

Is Bitcoin painting a bearish reversal setup?

Bitcoin is painting what appears to be an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, with its neckline near $100,800 acting as current support. As of June 7, the price has entered the handle-formation stage, eyeing a breakdown below the neckline.

Based on the inverse cup-and-handle pattern setup, a breakdown below $100,800 will increase Bitcoin’s likelihood of dropping toward $91,000.

The $91,000 downside target aligns with BTC’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave).

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has declined in tandem with its price, signaling strong trader conviction behind the ongoing sell-off.

As of June 7, the RSI reading was 52, reflecting a weakening upside momentum; a break below 50 could intensify downside pressure.

To regain control, bulls must reclaim Bitcoin’s 20-day EMA (the purple wave) resistance at around the $105,000 level. A drop toward $91,000 could effectively lower BTC’s potential of hitting $150,000 by 2025’s end.

2021 fractal suggests BTC won’t hit $150,000 in 2025

At a broader timescale, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is flashing a familiar warning.

A bearish divergence has formed between price and RSI, mirroring the 2021 cycle top, when RSI trended lower despite higher price highs. That divergence preceded a 61% correction toward its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) and below.

A similar structure is now visible, with a divergence forming just below the $112,000 high and a projected pullback target near the 200-week EMA at around $64,000, marking a potential 52% decline.

This historical setup casts doubt on Bitcoin reaching the widely discussed $150,000 target by the end of 2025, especially if the divergence confirms a broader market top similar to past cycles.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt adds further weight to this outlook.

In his May 2025 analysis, Brandt identified a rising wedge pattern and warned that Bitcoin must reclaim its parabolic trendline to stay on track for a $125,000–$150,000 cycle top by August or September 2025.

He notes that Failure to do so could mark the end of the current bullish cycle—potentially triggering a typical 50–60% drawdown following prior tops.

Gold’s trajectory, Bitcoin “bull flag” hint at a $150K

Despite growing technical warnings, some analysts remain confident in Bitcoin’s path toward $150,000.

Traders see similarities between Bitcoin’s current market structure and gold’s explosive breakout in the 2000s. They argue that BTC could mimic gold’s historic trajectory, reinforcing the $150,000 scenario.

Analyst Tony Severino cites a potential bull flag structure to predict a BTC price boom toward $150,000.

From an onchain perspective, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes BTC is approaching a critical “start” rally zone based on historical cycle patterns.

If the NUPL/MVRV ratio breaks and holds above 1.0, it would indicate the start of a new bullish impulse, the analyst notes, saying it could push Bitcoin’s price toward the $150,000–$175,000 range, similar to the rallies seen in 2017 and 2021.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) has a new gold-inspired $155,000 target, as analysis describes both assets as “remarkably impressive.”

In a post on X on April 16, popular trading and analytics account Cryptollica predicted BTC/USD copying gold to hit new all-time highs next.

Analysis sees key BTC price similarities to gold

Bitcoin has made the headlines for its inability to follow in gold’s record-breaking footsteps in 2025.

While XAU/USD continues to see repeated record highs, BTC/USD is down 9.3% year-to-date, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

Despite calls for an imminent “blow-off top” for gold, Bitcoin bulls hope that after a delay of several months, its “digital” equivalent will follow suit.

For Cryptollica, this means BTC/USD breaking out of a consolidatory wedge structure to swiftly reclaim six figures — and more.

“Bitcoin midterm target: 155K $,” it told X followers.

BTC price performance already has various potential tailwinds at its disposal, all of which have fueled bull runs in the past.

As Cointelegraph reported, these include a declining US dollar index (DXY) and all-time highs in the global M2 money supply.

Bitcoin “remarkably impressive” during trade war

Continuing, onchain analytics firm Glassnode argued that despite the price performance disparity, Bitcoin and gold have weathered the current macroeconomic storm remarkably well.

Related: Can 3-month Bitcoin RSI highs counter bearish BTC price ‘seasonality?’

“Amidst this turmoil, the performance of hard assets remains remarkably impressive,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” published on April 16. 

“Gold continues to surge higher, having reached a new ATH of $3,300, as investors flee to the traditional safe haven asset. Bitcoin sold off to $75k initially alongside risk assets, but has since recovered the weeks gains, trading back up to $85k, now flat since this burst of volatility.”

Glassnode said that gold and BTC are “increasingly entering the centre stage as global neutral reserve assets.”

In terms of the BTC price drawdown, analysts stressed the fact that by historical standards, the dip versus all-time highs remains modest at around 30%.

“In prior macroeconomic events like last week, Bitcoin has typically experienced greater than -50% sell-offs in such events, which highlights a degree of robustness of modern investor sentiment towards the asset during unfavourable conditions,” it wrote, referring to the ongoing US-China trade war.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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