By Omkar Godbole (All times unless otherwise indicated)

The crypto market has been stagnating along with Bitcoin since Saturday BTC$115,104.99 Again, along with ongoing sales by early adopters or OGS wallets, we were unable to maintain profits above $116,000.

On Sunday, eight years of BTC holders moved over $136 million to polymer meat and began dumping it, according to blockchain analyst LookonChain. The holder is known to have replaced 35,991 BTC with 886,731 ETH in recent months.

Other long-term holders have settled coins in recent months as the market continues to be adjusted to six-figure prices as the new normal for BTC.

However, the latest sales are not only limited to long-term holders. Chain data tracked with GlassNode showed wallets of all sizes returning to coin distribution.

In the case of ether, whale wallets continue to scale exposure, suggesting ether outperformance against bitcoin. However, the etheric Bitcoin ratio for binance fell for the third year in a row, failing to take advantage of the trendline breakouts confirmed on Friday.

Recent outperformers MemeCoins are also under pressure, with Token, Doge and Shib losing 10% and 6% respectively in the last 24 hours.

Solana’s native tokensol traded 2% lower at $234 despite major industry participants taking steps to accelerate the adoption of Solana Native’s distributed finances. (defi).

Kyle Samani, chairman of Solana Treasury Company Forward Industries, registered with NASDAQ, said on X that the company plans to deploy funds to the Solana-based Defi protocol. Last week, the forward raised $1.65 billion in privately owned placements led by Multicoin Capital, Galaxy Digital and Jump Crypto.

Samani was in response to the ideas raised by Anthem, a crypto trader. Anthem has called for the corporate finance fund to invest in Solana-based Defi to boost the network’s Defi appeal in connection with the industry giant Ethereum.

In traditional markets, investors’ positioning in the S&P 500 looked completely biased and bullish. “The emotions are extreme, so be careful about that,” Shortbear said in X.

What to see

• Crypto
• Macros
• Revenue (Estimation based on fact set data)

Token Event

• Governance votes and phone calls
  • Curve DAO is voting to renew its donation-enabled two-crocrypt contract, and refines the donation so as the unlocked portion will last after burns. Voting will end on September 16th.
• Unlock
  • September 15th: StarkNet (strk) To unlock 5.98% of the circulation supply, unlock the supply supply worth $17.09 million.
  • September 15th: 6 Become$0.3194 To unlock 1.18% of the circulating supply, unlock the supply worth $18.06 million.
• Token launch
  • September 15th: Openledger (ovnereling) It will be listed on crypto.com.

meeting

Token talk

Oliver Night

• Monero’s blockchain suffered from the deepest Reorg ever on Monday, rewinding 18 blocks.
• Blockchain reorganization occurs when a node tracks a portion of an existing chain, where it is doing longer work. Shifts occur during a temporary fork where two versions of chains compete.
• Monero’s XMR token remained unshakable during the caterpillar. Increases by 5% despite attacks by Qubic. This is a Layer-1 AI-centric blockchain and mining pool that last month attempted to take over the Monero blockchain by accumulating 51% of its mining power.
• The event rewrites the transaction history for approximately 36 minutes, disabling approximately 118 confirmed transactions, and prompted concerns about network security.
• Crypto Podcaster Xenu claimed it was an attempt to “stop bleeding” XMR prices after the XMR price fell from $344 to $235 during the first 51% attack in August.
• XMR is currently trading at $304, bringing negative sentiment aside, up 78% in daily trading volume to $136 million.

Positioning of derivatives

By Omkar Godbole

• The top 25 coins have experienced a decline in open interest in futures (Hey) Over the past 24 hours, Memecoins such as Doge, Pepe and Fartcoin have registered double-digit capital outflows. This contrasts with the pre-covered bounce seen in most tokens.
• BTC’s Global Futures oi Tally returned to 720k BTC last week from a nearly record high of 744k BTC. Total OI across the market has returned to $90 billion from $95 billion over the weekend.
• ETH tally shows new capital inflows, growing from around 13.2 million ether to over 14 million ether earlier this month. However, this does not necessarily indicate a bullish position. (CVD) ETH has been negative for the past 24 hours. It is a sign of net sales pressure.
• Most major tokens have seen negative CVDs for the past 24 hours.
• Activities on futures registered with the CME appear to be gaining pace, bounced back from a high low of 133.25k BTC earlier this week to 141.69k BTC. The annual rate for three months is below 10%, extending the consolidation. ETH’s CME OI remains below 2 million ether.
• Deribit biases BTC and ETH has been significantly mitigated in all tenors as the market expects Fed rate reductions in the coming months. The implicit volatility term structure remains in Contango, and its December expiration date is expected to be more unstable.

Market movements

• BTC is down 1.1% from 4pm on Friday at $114,933.52 (24 hours: -1%)
• ETH is down 3.1% at $4,528.04 (24 hours: -3.22%)
• Coindesk 20 is down 2.73% at 4,245.39 (24 hours: -3.35%)
• Ether CESR Composite staking rate is 2.82%, down 2 bps
• BTC’s funding rate is 0.0081% (8.829% per year) About Vinanence

• DXY has not changed at 97.48
• Gold futures fell 0.29% to $3,675.80
• Silver futures fell 0.56% at $42.59
• Nikkei 225 closed 0.89% at 44,768.12
• Hang Seng rose 0.22% to 26,446.56
• FTSE is down 0.1% at 9,273.57
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.6% at 5,423.13
• DJIA fell 0.59% on Friday at 45,834.22
• The S&P 500 was unchanged at 6,584.29
• NASDAQ Composite rose 0.44% at 22,141.10
• S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.42% at 29,283.82
• S&P 40 Latin America has been closed with a change at 2,857.80
• The US 10-year financial ratio has not changed at 4.059%
• E-Mini S&P 500 futures are no different at 6,594.50
• E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures remain unchanged at 24,098.00
• The e-mini dow Jones Industrial Average Index is up 0.22% at 45,957.00

Bitcoin statistics

• BTC dominance: 58.11% (0.57%)
• Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03938 (-1.38%)
• Hashrate (7-day moving average):025 eh/s
• Hashpris (spot): $53.81
• Total fee: 3.13 BTC/$362,347
• CME Futures Open Interest: 141,690 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.5 oz
• BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.90%

Technical Analysis

• Doge fell from 30.7 cents to 26 cents, and it penetrated the bullish trend line from its September 6th low.
• The breakdown suggests the momentum of the updated seller.
• Prices are also accepted below the one-sided cloud. Crossovers under the cloud are said to represent a bearish shift in trends.

Crypto stocks

• Coinbase Global (coin): Closed on Friday at $323.04 (-0.28%)-0.34% is $321.95 in front of the market
• Round (CRCL): Closed at $125.32 (-6.27%)+1.81% 127.59 dollars
• Galaxy Digital (glxy): Closed at $29.70 (+2.88%)-0.47% at $29.56
• strong (blsh): Closed at $51.84 (-3.98%)+1.72% $52.73
• Mala Holdings (Mara): Closed at $16.31 (+3.82%)-0.67% at $16.20
• Riot Platform (Riol): Closed at $15.89 (+1.53%)-0.44% at $15.82
• Core Scientific (Colts): Closed at $15.86 (+1.99%)-0.38% at $15.80
• CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed for $10.35 (+1.47%)not changed in previous markets
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners etf (WGMI): Closed at $37.32 (+4.63%)
• Escape movement (exod): Closed at $28.36 (-1.73%)not changed in previous markets

Cryptocurrency company

• strategy (MSTR): Closed at $331.44 (+1.66%)-0.53% 329.68 dollars
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $29.19 (+2.28%)
• Sharplink Games (sbet): Closed for $17.7 (+8.19%)-2.26% at $17.30
• Upexi (upxi): Closed at $6.76 (+18.93%)+1.55% at $6.86
• Light Strategy (Lt): Closed at $3.07 (+10.43%)

ETF Flow

Spot BTC ETF

• Daily Net Flow: $642.4 million
• Cumulative net flow: $567.9 billion
• Total BTC holdings: 1.31 million

Spot ETH ETF

• Daily Net Flow: $455.5 million
• Cumulative net flow: $133.8 billion
• Total ETH holdings: 648 million

Source: Farside Investors

While you’re asleep

• As minus-side fears go ahead of Fed rate reductions, what’s next for Bitcoin and Ether? (Coindesk): Amberdata’s Greg Magadini says regular quarter point cuts could mean gradual gains, but half-point moves could trigger an explosive rally of BTC, ETH, SOL and gold.
• The Bank of England’s proposed stablecoin ownership restrictions are ineffective, Cryptogroup says (Coindesk): Executives say that the UK’s proposed cap enforces innovation pushing overseas and may not be able to take risks, but US and EU regulations set standards without limiting their holdings.
• LSE Group launches a blockchain platform for access with private funds (Bloomberg): LSEG’s digital market infrastructure was built to increase efficiency and used in MemberCap funding for MCM Fund 1, where Crypto Exchange Archax plays the role of candidates.
• The Trump administration has claimed vast power to compete to fire federal governors before meeting (New York Times): In a filing in the federal court of appeals Sunday, Justice Department lawyers argued that Trump’s authority to expel Gov. Lisa Cook was both “reviewiewiseable” and “reasonable.”
• BOE expects to put a key rate on hold, but slowly and quantitatively tightening (Wall Street Journal): Indications of internal resistance question short-term rate cuts, with four MPC members opposed the final move, and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey warning inflationary pressure complicating policy choices.

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

About Author

Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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Last updated: 

August 22, 2025

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals a dramatic recovery to $116,859 following a sharp rally from $112,320 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at September rate cuts, despite facing $1.17 billion in ETF outflows and institutional selling pressure throughout the week.

At the same time, Bitcoin maintains a bullish structure above all major EMAs, including 20-day ($113,982), 50-day ($115,333), 100-day ($116,164), and 200-day ($115,943) support levels, positioning for a potential breakout toward $120K resistance despite momentum weakening signals.

Bitcoin shows a healthy RSI at 62.75 with MACD remaining bullish at 328.20 but a negative histogram at -903.78, indicating momentum exhaustion, while moderate 10.83K BTC volume suggests institutional participation during the Powell-driven recovery rally.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis synthesizes 25 real-time technical indicators to assess BTC’s trajectory amid Federal Reserve policy shifts and institutional distribution pressure while navigating altcoin outperformance and market rotation dynamics.

Technical Analysis: Powell Rally Tests EMA Support Structure

Bitcoin’s current price of $116,859.35 reflects a dramatic intraday recovery despite a -4.04% daily decline from the opening price of $112,320.01, establishing a volatile trading range between $116,988.00 (high) and $111,684.79 (low).

This 4.5% intraday range demonstrates extreme volatility following Powell’s dovish comments, triggering risk-on sentiment.

The RSI at 62.75 maintains healthy neutral-bullish positioning without oversold conditions, providing balanced momentum for potential continuation.

Moving averages reveal exceptional bullish positioning with Bitcoin trading above all major EMAs: 20-day at $113,982 (+2.5%), 50-day at $115,333 (+1.3%), 100-day at $116,164 (+0.6%), and 200-day at $115,943 (+0.8%).

MACD shows a strong bullish structure at 328.20, well above zero, with the signal line at -575.59, but a concerning negative histogram at -903.78 suggests significant momentum deterioration.

Volume analysis shows moderate activity at 10.83K BTC, indicating steady institutional participation during Fed-driven volatility.

ATR maintains extremely high readings at 113,152.27, suggesting massive volatility potential for continued significant moves in either direction based on policy developments.

Market Context: Fed Policy Shift Overrides Institutional Distribution

Bitcoin’s recovery follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole comments hinting at September rate cuts, creating risk-on sentiment that overshadowed week-long institutional selling pressure.

The dovish pivot represents a fundamental catalyst as “markets respond at the hint of a rate cut” with potential for amplified moves upon actual implementation.

The broader context reveals institutional distribution challenges with Bitcoin ETFs facing $1.17 billion in outflows while major holders, including BlackRock and other institutions, have been systematically reducing positions.

Despite this selling pressure, Powell’s rate cut signals create renewed institutional interest in risk assets.

Altcoin outperformance demonstrates market rotation dynamics with Ethereum recovering above $4,800 and BNB achieving new all-time highs.

The 2025 trajectory shows resilience from February’s $84,373 low to current $116K levels, representing 38% appreciation.

Current positioning maintains proximity to July-August highs despite institutional selling.

Market Fundamentals: Strong Metrics Despite Distribution Pressure

Bitcoin maintains dominant positioning with $2.32 trillion market cap (+3.31%) despite institutional distribution challenges.

The market cap growth accompanies increased volume at $80.01 billion (+34.12%), indicating active institutional repositioning.

The 3.46% volume-to-market cap ratio suggests heightened trading activity supporting price stability during policy-driven volatility.

Circulating supply of 19.9 million BTC represents 94.8% of the maximum 21 million supply, with approaching scarcity supporting long-term value despite short-term distribution phases.

Market dominance of 61.40% shows slight weakness relative to altcoins during institutional rotation phases, while the -6.39% distance from August 14’s all-time high of $124,457 demonstrates proximity to recent peaks despite selling pressure.

Current pricing maintains extraordinary 239,486,002% gains from 2010 lows while trading near historic highs, validating Bitcoin’s institutional adoption trajectory despite temporary distribution pressures from ETF outflows and institutional profit-taking activities.

Social Sentiment: Exceptional Performance Amid Policy Catalyst

LunarCrush data reveals outstanding social performance with Bitcoin’s AltRank at #1 during Federal Reserve policy developments.

Galaxy Score of 90 reflects strong sentiment as participants process rate cut implications for risk asset positioning.

Engagement metrics show substantial activity with 5 million total engagements (-500K) while mentions surge to 500K (+100K), demonstrating heightened attention during policy catalyst events.

Social dominance of 43.06% maintains exceptional visibility while sentiment registers at a robust 80% positive despite institutional distribution.

Recent social themes focus on Powell’s dovish pivot, with community discussions emphasizing “false breakdown confirmed” and “inverse head and shoulders” technical patterns.

Notable analyst commentary includes predictions of $175K targets and comparisons to historical rate cut cycles, driving Bitcoin appreciation.

Prominent traders are also identifying double-bottom formations and potential for moves above $127K before Q3 ends.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin Analysis: Fed Policy Catalyst Meets Technical Resistance

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals Bitcoin benefiting from Federal Reserve policy shift despite institutional distribution headwinds.

The recovery above all EMAs following Powell’s comments demonstrates monetary policy’s continued influence on Bitcoin positioning as a risk asset.

Immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA around $113,982, followed by strong support confluence at 50-day ($115,333) and 100-day ($116,164) EMAs.

The layered EMA support structure provides substantial downside protection during policy-driven volatility phases.

Resistance begins at today’s high around $116,988, followed by psychological $120K–$122K levels.

Volume patterns and MACD signals suggest institutional positioning continues despite surface distribution, while extreme ATR readings indicate potential for significant moves matching Federal Reserve policy implementation phases and institutional rotation dynamics.

Three-Month Bitcoin Price Forecast: Policy-Driven Scenarios

Rate Cut Rally (50% Probability)

Successful September rate cut implementation combined with continued dovish Fed policy could drive Bitcoin toward $125K–$130K, representing 7–11% upside from current levels.

This scenario requires sustained institutional confidence and policy follow-through validation.

Distribution Consolidation (30% Probability)

Continued institutional profit-taking could result in consolidation between $112K–$120K, allowing distribution completion while monetary policy provides underlying support for risk asset positioning.

Technical Correction (20% Probability)

A break below $113K EMA support could trigger selling toward $108K–$110K levels, representing 7–10% downside.

Recovery would depend on the Federal Reserve policy acceleration and institutional distribution completion.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin Analysis: Monetary Policy Catalyst Meets Distribution Phase

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals that Bitcoin is positioned for a potential policy-driven breakout despite institutional distribution pressures.

The combination of Fed dovish pivot with technical support above all EMAs suggests that monetary policy influence outweighs short-term selling pressure.

Next Price Target: $125K-$130K Within 90 Days

The immediate trajectory requires holding above $113K EMA support to validate policy catalyst strength over distribution pressure.

From there, the September rate cut implementation could propel Bitcoin toward $125K psychological resistance, with sustained dovish policy driving toward $130K+ breakout levels.

However, failure to hold $113K would signal extended consolidation toward $108K–$110K range, creating an accumulation opportunity before the next policy wave drives Bitcoin toward new all-time highs above $125K as monetary conditions become increasingly supportive.

Bitcoin (BTC) registered a 1.11% hourly drawdown after the Federal Reserve kept its target range at 4.25%–4.50%, trading at $116,320.13 as of press time following a quick visit below the $116,000 threshold.

This is the largest correction recorded during a single hour of trading since July 14, when BTC retraced 1.14%

Major cap altcoins registered the same movement. Ethereum (ETH) slid 1.74% to $3,712.36 as of press time, while Solana fell 1.90% to $173.51, XRP 2.52% to $3.04, and BNB 1.46% to $775.27.

The drop happened in tandem with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech following the latest FOMC meeting. He highlighted that tariffs’ pass-through to prices may be slower than expected, and the current numbers represent the “very beginning of tariff inflation.”

Powell reiterated that he has no intention of resigning and said the Fed remains committed to its dual mandate. Lastly, he stated that there are no decisions regarding a rate cut in September, despite President Donald Trump saying that he heard Powell would cut interest rates at the next FOMC meeting.

These developments from Powell’s speech added to the revising of a prior line in the Fed’s statement that uncertainty about the outlook “has diminished” to “remains elevated,” a backpedal suggesting lingering risks. 

As a result, traders stopped fully pricing a rate cut in October, given as the most certain.

Markets remain cautious

Bitfinex analysts framed the macro picture as mixed. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter rebounded to 3% annualized after a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. 

Yet, much of the improvement reflected lower imports rather than robust domestic demand, according to a note from Bitfinex analysts. Final sales rose just 1.2%, while core Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) eased to 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, and 2.9% year-over-year.

That backdrop leaves the Fed inclined to hold steady amid “persistent inflationary risks.”

With the Fed softening its confidence and highlighting elevated uncertainty, Bitfinex analysts highlighted that crypto’s relief bid lacked fuel. 

If policymakers continue to flag sticky inflation or question the quality of GDP growth, they expect a measured downside. As a result, Bitcoin could probe $114K or lower, with ETH also softening.

The analysts warned that in the post-FOMC window, traders should watch order-flow response, volatility skew shifts, and funding-rate dynamics for confirmation of direction.

Mentioned in this article

Key points:

• Bitcoin is convincing traders that an upside breakout is around the corner, with all-time highs in sight.

• One target demands $116,000 next week, moving BTC/USD firmly out of its narrow range.

• A quick dip before continuing higher is among the options for BTC price action into the new week.

Bitcoin (BTC) reduced volatility to a minimum into the May 18 weekly close as traders bet on a fresh breakout.

BTC price brews classic breakout signal

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the area around $103,000 acting as a BTC price magnet throughout the weekend.

Now barely fluctuating up or down, BTC/USD was primed for a liquidity grab, with $105,000 and $103,000 both targets, data from monitoring resource CoinGlass confirmed.

Commenting on the current market structure, traders remained broadly bullish, anticipating a rematch with all-time highs and the return of price discovery.

“Next early week Bitcoin target: $116,000,” popular trader Alan summarized in his latest short-term prediction on X.

An accompanying chart underscored the lack of volatility characterizing BTC/USD over the past week.

“$BTC is brewing within this converging triangle with decreasing volume, which is a common indicator of potential for a Breakout,” Alan added.

Fellow trader Mikybull Crypto described the market structure as an “intraday diamond pattern breakout.”

$BTC INTRADAY DIAMOND PATTERN BREAKOUT pic.twitter.com/gMGMub7nTt

— Mikybull Crypto (@MikybullCrypto) May 18, 2025

“With the recent run up we’ve seen a consistent Coinbase spot premium. This is good and show there’s solid demand,” trader Daan Crypto Trades continued, referring to promising US buyer support fueling Bitcoin’s return to six figures.

Qualms over outstanding resistance

More conservative perspectives were confined to a temporary pullback before the upside resumed.

Related: Bitcoin hitting $220K ‘reasonable’ in 2025, says gold-based forecast

“Slow week and Bitcoin hasn’t been able to break resistance so far, which still makes me think that this scenario might be possibly in play,” trader CrypNuevo suggested.

Daan Crypto Trades added that against stocks, Bitcoin had yet to beat out final resistance.

$BTC Has failed to push higher relative to stocks.

The recent relative weakness has come after the US has made a “Deal” with China.

This does show that BTC has turned into this asset which gets interesting for investors when outflows and uncertainty happens elsewhere.

So while… https://t.co/hShAZxGM21 pic.twitter.com/UEPZNGWjff

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) May 17, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, longer-term concerns include a full retrace of the relief bounce, which rescued BTC/USD from multimonth lows near $75,000 in April.

A sweep of levels closer to $90,000 is also on the radar.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.