Bitcoin (BTC) must hold the $114,000 level to attract investors’ confidence and new liquidity to breach the narrow $110,000-$116,000 range.

According to a Sept. 11 report by Glassnode, BTC has been stuck in the “air gap” range following its mid-August peak. The trading range threatens to stall the current rally.

In the current landscape, Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from conflicting forces as recent buyers realize losses while earlier investors take profits.

The report noted three distinct investor cohorts shaping current price action. The first are top-buyers over the past three months holding positions near $113,800, while the second consists of dip-buyers clustering around $112,800.

The third cohort, comprising short-term holders from the past six months, is anchored near $108,300, creating defined support and resistance zones.

The rebound from $108,000 exposed underlying market stress. Seasoned short-term holders realized approximately $189 million in daily profits, representing 79% of all short-term holder gains. The investors who bought during the February-May dips used recent strength to exit positions profitably.

Loss realization weighs on recovery

Recent top buyers compounded selling pressure by realizing daily losses of up to $152 million during the same period. This behavior mirrors stress patterns observed in April 2024 and January 2025, when peak buyers capitulated under similar circumstances.

Net Realized Profit as a share of market cap peaked at 0.065% during August’s rally before trending lower. While current levels remain elevated, the metric suggests inflows provide diminishing support compared to earlier phases of the cycle.

US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) net flows dropped sharply since early August, hovering near 500 BTC daily, compared to the robust inflows that fueled previous rallies.

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The slowdown removes a critical pillar of institutional demand that drove Bitcoin’s ascent through 2024.

Derivatives providing stability

With spot flows weakening, derivatives markets assumed greater importance in price formation. Volume Delta Bias recovered during the bounce from $108,000, indicating seller exhaustion across major futures venues, including Binance and Bybit.

The 3-month annualized futures basis remains below 10% despite higher prices, reflecting measured demand for leverage without speculative excess.

Perpetual futures volume stays muted, consistent with post-euphoric market phases rather than aggressive speculation.

Bitcoin options open interest reached record highs as institutions increasingly use derivatives for risk management through protective puts and covered calls. Meanwhile, implied volatility continues to decline, signaling market maturation and reduced speculative positioning.

With these metrics as a backdrop, reclaiming $114,000 decisively would restore top-buyer profitability and attract fresh institutional capital.

Failure to hold this level risks renewed pressure on short-term holders, with $108,300 and ultimately $93,000 serving as critical downside targets where major supply clusters await.

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Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin needs a weekly close above $114,000 to avoid a deeper correction and reaffirm bullish strength.

• Failure to hold $112,000 and a bear flag breakdown could trigger drop to $103,700.

Bitcoin (BTC) may avoid an “ugly” correction to lower levels if BTC/USD ends the week above $114,000, according to traders and analysts.

Why Bitcoin price must reclaim $114,000

Bitcoin price is heading for its third consecutive week of losses, 11% below its Aug. 14 all-time high of $124,500, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. 

Bitcoin dropped below the crucial level of $114,000, a level that has supported the price over the previous six weeks, as shown in the chart below. 

Related: Bitcoin megaphone pattern targets $260K as BTC price screams ‘oversold’

BTC price must flip this level into support to confirm the strength of the uptrend, according to trader and YouTuber Sam Price.

“Bitcoin bulls are defending $109K support nicely,” Price said in an X post on Thursday, adding:

“A weekly close above $114K would be big.”

The long wick below $109,000 signalled “solid buy pressure,“ suggesting that bulls are aggressively defending this support level.

Analyst Rekt Capital said that it was important for Bitcoin to reclaim $114,000 as support to avoid a prolonged correction period.

“Turning $114K into new resistance would prolong the pullback period,” the analyst said in a Thursday X post, adding:

 “This has been a cycle of downside deviation, so all it comes down to is Bitcoin Weekly Closing above $114K for bullish bias.”

Bitcoin bears want to pull price down to $103,000

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s price outlook hinged on holding above $112,000. 

Similar sentiments were shared by MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe, who spotted Bitcoin trading at $112,800 on Thursday and said that the support at $112,000 was “crucial” for BTC price. 

“If Bitcoin can’t hold above $112K, we’ll probably face a very ugly correction across the board.”

Bitcoin had dipped below this support as of Friday, validating a bear flag on the four-hour chart, as shown.

A bear flag suggests a continuation of the bearish momentum, with sellers taking control.

Note that the price was rejected from the upper boundary of the flag, which is around $114,000, and has dropped below the lower boundary, which coincides with $112,000.

The measured move target from the pattern suggests a potential decline toward $103,700, representing a 6% drop from the current level.

The relative strength index remains below the mid-line, confirming the bearish momentum.

Liquidation data shows bid clusters all the way down to $104,000, suggesting that BTC price is likely to sink deeper to grab liquidity around this level. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin (BTC) registered a 1.11% hourly drawdown after the Federal Reserve kept its target range at 4.25%–4.50%, trading at $116,320.13 as of press time following a quick visit below the $116,000 threshold.

This is the largest correction recorded during a single hour of trading since July 14, when BTC retraced 1.14%

Major cap altcoins registered the same movement. Ethereum (ETH) slid 1.74% to $3,712.36 as of press time, while Solana fell 1.90% to $173.51, XRP 2.52% to $3.04, and BNB 1.46% to $775.27.

The drop happened in tandem with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech following the latest FOMC meeting. He highlighted that tariffs’ pass-through to prices may be slower than expected, and the current numbers represent the “very beginning of tariff inflation.”

Powell reiterated that he has no intention of resigning and said the Fed remains committed to its dual mandate. Lastly, he stated that there are no decisions regarding a rate cut in September, despite President Donald Trump saying that he heard Powell would cut interest rates at the next FOMC meeting.

These developments from Powell’s speech added to the revising of a prior line in the Fed’s statement that uncertainty about the outlook “has diminished” to “remains elevated,” a backpedal suggesting lingering risks. 

As a result, traders stopped fully pricing a rate cut in October, given as the most certain.

Markets remain cautious

Bitfinex analysts framed the macro picture as mixed. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter rebounded to 3% annualized after a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. 

Yet, much of the improvement reflected lower imports rather than robust domestic demand, according to a note from Bitfinex analysts. Final sales rose just 1.2%, while core Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) eased to 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, and 2.9% year-over-year.

That backdrop leaves the Fed inclined to hold steady amid “persistent inflationary risks.”

With the Fed softening its confidence and highlighting elevated uncertainty, Bitfinex analysts highlighted that crypto’s relief bid lacked fuel. 

If policymakers continue to flag sticky inflation or question the quality of GDP growth, they expect a measured downside. As a result, Bitcoin could probe $114K or lower, with ETH also softening.

The analysts warned that in the post-FOMC window, traders should watch order-flow response, volatility skew shifts, and funding-rate dynamics for confirmation of direction.

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