Retail Bitcoin Traders Show Most Fear Since October 20th Crypto Crash: Santiment

On October 30 (UTC), analysts pointed to a long-term trend test, crowd fear, and an initial support zone, while CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model showed trading heaviness and a narrow range around support.

Analyst comments

Altcoin Daily noted that during bull markets, it is common for Bitcoin to retest its 50-week moving average, with a long-term guideline being around $103,000. A “retest” simply means that the price drops to a widely watched trend line to see if buyers intervene again. Post to X

Santiment said the drop toward $107,000 on Oct. 30 led to a spike in social posts asking for prices below $100,000. In that graph, the blue bar tracks calls with outcomes between $50,000 and $100,000, and the red bar tracks calls with outcomes between $150,000 and $200,000. The caption notes that retail fear is at its highest since the October 10 crypto crash, and argues that markets often move against crowded expectations.

CoinDesk senior analyst Omkar Godbole wrote that $97,000 “looks like the first support.” The chart he attached shows a broad decline with a low limit in the low $90,000s, which is why he marks that $97,000 area as where the decline stalled previously.

Technical analysis highlights

• Performance and Correlation: Up 0.98% in 24 hours to $107,247, outperforming the CoinDesk Index (CD5) benchmark by just 0.78 percentage points. This shows that Bitcoin broadly follows the market.
• Path and Range: The previous downturn saw a decline from $111,909 to $107,804 (approximately 4.0%, $4,497 range). The sharpest leg lasted from $110,826 to an intraday low of $108,048.
• The most intense selling burst: In the largest wave, 31,143 Bitcoins were traded (about 185% of the 24-hour average).
• Compression Zone: Prices fluctuated between $107,650 and $108,225, forming a tight band just above $107,000.
• See a broader range: Our model’s technical analysis points to $110,000 to $117,800 as part of strategic repositioning rather than panic.

pattern and placement

• Compression near the floor: A narrow band around $107,000 to $108,000 often indicates the market is holding its breath while buyers and sellers reset.
• Distribution vs. Accumulation: Above-trend activity alongside selling by long-term holders suggests that supply is gaining strength in response to demand and could cap any upside until absorbed.
• Overhead Pushback: Previous rejections near $111,650 and $112,000 to $113,000 indicate that the seller has been active.

Support and resistance: map

• Support: $107,400 to $108,000 as short-term shelf. The 200-day moving average near $109,000 is a reference level.
• Resistance: First $111,650, then $113,600. The previous bounce was also seen around $112,000 to $113,000.

volume read

• Overall: 60.5% above the 7-day average throughout the day.
• Heaviest bar: 31,143 Bitcoin in a sharp selling wave (about 185% of the 24-hour average), consistent with circulation pressure.
• Joining the range: A rising but more stable print in the compression band indicates positioning rather than a fresh trend.

Target and risk framework

• If resistance recovers: A continued rise above $111,650 points to a checkpoint near $115,800 to $117,500.
• If the floor breaks: Below $107,400, there is a risk of an expansion towards the $102,000 to $104,000 demand zone, which has been highlighted as a previous accumulation area.
• Tactical Lens: With a narrow range and mixed flows, many traders are waiting for a clean move from $107,000 to $108,000 or a definitive pullback above $111,650 before going one way or the other.

Disclaimer: Portions of this article were generated with the help of AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and compliance. our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s complete AI policy.