Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai gave a light, indirect response to the growing discussion about Gemini 3, Google’s next major language model, but it had a big impact on Polymarket’s prediction market.
The comments come amid heightened speculation on Polymarket, with traders currently estimating a 69% chance that Google will launch the model on November 22nd.
Prediction markets are betting on Gemini 3 release next week $goog pic.twitter.com/cyvrJSMp62
— Alphabet (@Wintermoat) November 14, 2025
Polymarket has become the largest prediction platform for betting on real world events. Users are putting money into everything from product launch dates and Bitcoin (BTC) price movements to election results and Federal Reserve decisions.
The market has turned into a place where traders try to pre-price major technology moves, with Gemini 3 being the latest focus.
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What does Sundar Pichai’s “thinking face” emoji suggest about 3 degrees Gemini?
Participants trade event contracts using cryptocurrencies. The platform recently raised $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, giving it a valuation of $9 billion.
Prediction markets are also attracting attention at Google. The company confirmed that Google Finance will soon display data from Polymarket and Kalshi, giving users a way to check market-based probabilities and see how traders are pricing in real-world events.
As speculation mounts over the possibility of Gemini 3’s launch next week, Sundar Pichai kept his response brief. He posted two “thinking face” emojis to X, but offered no further explanation.
🤔🤔 https://t.co/qOnZ87TUh0
— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) November 14, 2025
His short response suggests he is refraining from providing details to avoid adding to the growing hype.
Still, the upcoming release is important to Google. The company is under pressure to get closer to the companies currently leading the AI field, especially OpenAI.
The entire industry is watching this announcement with great interest, as the reaction to Gemini 3 will determine how seriously Google can compete at the top level.
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How reliable are prediction markets compared to polls and expert predictions?
Business Insider and other outlets report The model is expected to be available by the end of the year.
They say Google is aiming for better coding output, stronger reasoning skills and more sophisticated multimedia generation.
The update will also include an improved version of the company’s Nano Banana imaging system.
Pichai has already said Gemini 3 will arrive this year. He framed it as part of Google’s efforts to move closer to OpenAI after a long period in which ChatGPT dominated public attention.
This focuses on the heading question. Are prediction markets susceptible to celebrity influence?
Two decades of academic research has shown that prediction markets typically produce fairly accurate predictions. In many cases, the results even outperform public opinion polls and expert surveys.
But new research points to risks. They show that a single large trade made at the right time can cause the price of an automated market maker system to fluctuate in a way that does not fully unwind.
Its effects can be lasting, especially if other traders treat that price movement as real information rather than noise.
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