Bitcoin’s grip remains strong in the market. Its advantage, measured as a percentage of total crypto market capitalization, falls close to nearly 63.9% after winning a high of 65.3% in May.
Historically, such strength from Bitcoin has preceded a wide shift in which traders spin profits into smaller assets. However, this time, the shift has not been realized on a meaningful scale. People are wondering: When will the Altcoin season begin?
Many expected 2025 to be the year Altcoins made a comeback, but that optimism is beginning to fade and thin midway through the year.
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Still, experts agree: the Altcoin season is not dead, just delayed
This extraordinary dynamic explains several factors. One of the most important is the rise in institutional investors who currently view Bitcoin as a regulatory entry point to crypto. With the launch and rapid adoption of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, large capital flows directly to BTC.
In previous cycles, altcoins sometimes functioned as speculative stand-in for Bitcoin. Today, institutions have direct access to the BTC. This is exactly what they do. This shift has had a damping effect on other markets.
Bitcoin remains a consensus trade between institutions. The recognition of BTC as a safer bet backed by regulatory clarity and operational reliability makes it difficult for capital to spin towards the altcoin. In contrast, many altcoins still tackle smart contract risks, unclear regulations, and high centralization. This makes them reluctant to venture beyond Bitcoin, at least for now.
Bitcoin Dominance Chart Signal: Still in the BTC-led phase
(BTC.D)
Looking at the Bitcoin domination charts enhance this story. Approximately 64.8% of Bitcoin’s market share has been steadily rising since the second half of 2022. In contrast to the 2020-2021 Bull Run, BTC’s dominance peaked at ~73% before it fell rapidly and caused the altcoin season for Fulfurd.
The weekly charts consistently show highs and higher lows, with capital continuing to flow to Bitcoin while most Altcoins are behind. This advantage becomes even more clear on the ETH/BTC chart.
(btceth)
Ethereum is struggling to surpass BTC. It remains relatively stable against the US dollar, but has lost its position against Bitcoin for nearly two years. Simply put, keeping BTC in ETH during this period provided better ROI.
Why is this important: ETH/BTC is often considered a proxy for AltCoin trust. When ETH works well against BTC, it usually directs risk appetite and a healthier Altcoin market. Meanwhile, the decline in the ETH/BTC ratio suggests defensive positioning and capital integration into Bitcoin.
Reown CEO Jess Houlgrave says Altcoins is behind as hype, not fundamentals, still driving many people. Bitcoin, meanwhile, cements its reputation for institutional trust, consistent utility and macro-relatedness.
Some crypto influencers believe that the biggest altcoin season in history could still begin in June. However, macroeconomic factors cannot be ignored. Geopolitical tensions, interest rate uncertainty and a cautious risk environment have made investors hesitate to embrace volatility. Liquidity also spreads thinly across the ever-growing pool of new Altcoin projects, attracting market attention.
As a result, there is a fragmented environment, and in a fragmented environment, there are very few altcoins that will maintain great momentum.
Ethereum accumulates quiet strength so that Bitcoin’s advantage is preserved
On the bright side, Ethereum sees a strong accumulation from whales and a steady influx into spot ETFs. Over 870,000 ETHs have recently been purchased in a day, making it the best since 2017.
(sauce)
Nevertheless, ETH prices have fallen slightly as the short positions of CME futures rose sharply, and now have net shorts of $1.55 billion. This reflects the popular delta neutral strategy. Investors will be longer via ETFs or spots, shortening futures to earn hedges and yields without direct price exposure.
If staking for US-based ETH ETFs is approved, this strategy will expand significantly, offering a return of nearly 8%. For now, the strong foundations of Ethereum are overwhelmed by sophisticated hedging activities.
For Crypto enthusiasts, for those who think it’s time for Bitcoin to eventually fall, the answer is not yet, and is soon. The Altcoin season can take some time, but it’s far from being cancelled. As Bitcoin surge plateaus and freshcapitals are looking for higher returns, the Altcoin market could be when it’s near the end of 2025 or into 2026.
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Key takeout
Is Altcoin season nearby? Bitcoin’s advantage remains near 64%, showing no signs of a reversal and delays the start of a wide range of Altcoin rallies.
Institutional capital flows into BTC via ETFs, reducing Altcoin’s speculative interest compared to past cycles. Today’s institutional investors have prioritized Bitcoin, reducing liquidity in the broader Altcoin market.
Although Ethereum performs less than Bitcoin, whales accumulation and ETF influx suggest a quiet muscle build-up. Whales have accumulated ETH, and ETFs have seen a 19-day continuous influx.
The Altcoin season could emerge by the second half of 2025 as Bitcoin Plateaus and investors turn to riskier assets in search of stronger returns.
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